Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker

With the bugs floated around in ehat order would you guys prefer between Kuzma, Collins, and Portis?
Collins, Portis, ............



Kuzma.

Portis is probably the most likely to opt out of his contract. I don't think a team will go more than MLE level for him and he's at that age where it's likely his last real long term contract so the years is what will count for him. If you want Portis wait until the summer rather than gamble on a rental. Collins could opt out, but he's making 20+ and is a bit younger. No team is giving him 20+ on the open market in a summer with that many potential name free agents.
 
Jay Huff as an back up would be cool , with Clark, Edey,JJJ/Aldama Memphis only plays him in spurts.
I like Huff a lot. He's a rare big spacer and a really good rim protector. Really, the only red flag with him is a 9.1% TRB this season. As a big C, that's almost impossible to be that bad at rebounding.

Stlll, he's incredibly productive this season and you're right, he doesn't really have a long-term spot there in MEM.
 
If Fox wants to stay here, I think it would be unwise to trade him for a few reasons…
  1. We’re not going to get another player of his caliber (or better) back in a trade and you need stars to be able to win at a high level in this league. When the game slows down and defenses tighten up, you need guys who can collapse a defense or go get a bucket by themselves. Fox can do just that.
  2. I think he is a better shooter than what he has shown this season. First, we have to keep in mind that he shot 36.9% from 3 last season on 7.9 3PA per 36 min. Among players that averaged that many 3PAs per 36 min, Fox’s 3P% was 36th in the league. That’s pretty good. Secondly, despite his 3PT% not being where we want it this year, his FT% has been much improved at 82.3% (which is a good indication of his shooting potential). Lastly, he’s been playing with that finger injury all season long and it’s significant enough that it will require surgery in the offseason to fix. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fully healed Fox next year raise his 3PT% once again.
  3. He’s a two way player (when he wants to be). If we want to be a top team, we need to fill this roster with two way players around Sabonis. Fox being not only a star talent but someone who can defend at a high level (when he turns it on) is important come playoff time.

And to that last point, we should be trying to prioritize 2-way talents in terms of constructing this roster around Sabonis. Fox, Ellis, Carter, and Murray fit that description. Monk, Huerter, DeRozan, & Lyles…not so much. Now I’d be fine with having a 6th man on this roster who isn’t really a two way player but can help sustain the offense off the bench (Monk or DeRozan). However, the more players we have that fit this archetype, the more difficult it’s going to be to become a team that is both Top 10 in offense and Top 10 in defense (which you need to be if you want to be a top team).

With that in mind, I come back to the conclusion of preferring to trade Monk for various reasons...
  1. Looking across essentially all advanced impact stats, Fox is a more impactful player than Monk both on offense and defense. If we have to choose one, I'd prefer to go with the better player.
  2. A Fox & Monk combo is not ideal. We're much better when one of Fox or Monk is sharing the court with a 3&D defender (like Ellis)
  3. Since a Fox & Monk combo is not ideal, I'd prefer Monk to come off the bench and to not close games. However, I don't think Monk would be happy with that role change
  4. We already have 2 two-way guards to round out the rotation next to Fox (Ellis and Carter) who would allow Fox to take the easier defensive matchup all game long (allowing him to exert more energy on the offensive end). That gives us a 3 guard rotation with all of them being two-way players. That's great!
  5. I'm optimistic Carter can be more of a C&S threat on offense (sort of what Ellis is). I think he'll be able to run the PnR a bit, attack the paint, etc. That means Carter could help take over some of the scoring load Monk leaves behind (maybe not this year but in the future as Carter continues to develop)
  6. DeRozan could be used as our super 6th man in the future (especially since he'll be 36 at the start of next season) which means having a scoring/playmaking guard like Monk off the bench isn't as much of a need

So if I take a step back and assess what I would want our roster construction to look like in a year or two, I'd be thinking about it as...

PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Murray / DeRozan
PF - ??? / Murray
C - Sabonis / ???

...while having the following assets & contracts to use in a trade....

Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Picks



For example, we could potentially make a trade like this to better balance & optimize our the roster...

Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Doug McDermott
Pick(s)

for

John Collins
Cam Johnson

..that leaves us with a roster of....

PG - Fox / McLaughlin
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Johnson / DeRozan / Crowder
PF - Murray / Collins
C - Sabonis / Len

...and we could do a minute rotation of...

PG - Fox (34) / Carter (14)
SG - Ellis (30) / Carter (10) / DeRozan (8)
SF - Johnson (24) / DeRozan (24)
PF - Murray (30) / Collins (12) / Johnson (6)
C - Sabonis (34) / Collins (14)

Fox = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
DeRozan = 32 min
Ellis = 30 min
Johnson = 30 min
Murray = 30 min
Collins = 26 min
Carter = 24 min

Despite losing Monk, I still think that team can put up a ton of points considering Fox, DeRozan, Johnson, Murray, Collins, and Sabonis can all put up 15+ points (and Carter has the potential to be that type of offensive threat down the road). However, we now would have a lot more size, length and defense in the rotation to help cover our weaknesses.
 
If Fox wants to stay here, I think it would be unwise to trade him for a few reasons…
  1. We’re not going to get another player of his caliber (or better) back in a trade and you need stars to be able to win at a high level in this league. When the game slows down and defenses tighten up, you need guys who can collapse a defense or go get a bucket by themselves. Fox can do just that.
  2. I think he is a better shooter than what he has shown this season. First, we have to keep in mind that he shot 36.9% from 3 last season on 7.9 3PA per 36 min. Among players that averaged that many 3PAs per 36 min, Fox’s 3P% was 36th in the league. That’s pretty good. Secondly, despite his 3PT% not being where we want it this year, his FT% has been much improved at 82.3% (which is a good indication of his shooting potential). Lastly, he’s been playing with that finger injury all season long and it’s significant enough that it will require surgery in the offseason to fix. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fully healed Fox next year raise his 3PT% once again.
  3. He’s a two way player (when he wants to be). If we want to be a top team, we need to fill this roster with two way players around Sabonis. Fox being not only a star talent but someone who can defend at a high level (when he turns it on) is important come playoff time.

And to that last point, we should be trying to prioritize 2-way talents in terms of constructing this roster around Sabonis. Fox, Ellis, Carter, and Murray fit that description. Monk, Huerter, DeRozan, & Lyles…not so much. Now I’d be fine with having a 6th man on this roster who isn’t really a two way player but can help sustain the offense off the bench (Monk or DeRozan). However, the more players we have that fit this archetype, the more difficult it’s going to be to become a team that is both Top 10 in offense and Top 10 in defense (which you need to be if you want to be a top team).

With that in mind, I come back to the conclusion of preferring to trade Monk for various reasons...
  1. Looking across essentially all advanced impact stats, Fox is a more impactful player than Monk both on offense and defense. If we have to choose one, I'd prefer to go with the better player.
  2. A Fox & Monk combo is not ideal. We're much better when one of Fox or Monk is sharing the court with a 3&D defender (like Ellis)
  3. Since a Fox & Monk combo is not ideal, I'd prefer Monk to come off the bench and to not close games. However, I don't think Monk would be happy with that role change
  4. We already have 2 two-way guards to round out the rotation next to Fox (Ellis and Carter) who would allow Fox to take the easier defensive matchup all game long (allowing him to exert more energy on the offensive end). That gives us a 3 guard rotation with all of them being two-way players. That's great!
  5. I'm optimistic Carter can be more of a C&S threat on offense (sort of what Ellis is). I think he'll be able to run the PnR a bit, attack the paint, etc. That means Carter could help take over some of the scoring load Monk leaves behind (maybe not this year but in the future as Carter continues to develop)
  6. DeRozan could be used as our super 6th man in the future (especially since he'll be 36 at the start of next season) which means having a scoring/playmaking guard like Monk off the bench isn't as much of a need

So if I take a step back and assess what I would want our roster construction to look like in a year or two, I'd be thinking about it as...

PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Murray / DeRozan
PF - ??? / Murray
C - Sabonis / ???

...while having the following assets & contracts to use in a trade....

Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Picks



For example, we could potentially make a trade like this to better balance & optimize our the roster...

Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Doug McDermott
Pick(s)

for

John Collins
Cam Johnson

..that leaves us with a roster of....

PG - Fox / McLaughlin
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Johnson / DeRozan / Crowder
PF - Murray / Collins
C - Sabonis / Len

...and we could do a minute rotation of...

PG - Fox (34) / Carter (14)
SG - Ellis (30) / Carter (10) / DeRozan (8)
SF - Johnson (24) / DeRozan (24)
PF - Murray (30) / Collins (12) / Johnson (6)
C - Sabonis (34) / Collins (14)

Fox = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
DeRozan = 32 min
Ellis = 30 min
Johnson = 30 min
Murray = 30 min
Collins = 26 min
Carter = 24 min

Despite losing Monk, I still think that team can put up a ton of points considering Fox, DeRozan, Johnson, Murray, Collins, and Sabonis can all put up 15+ points (and Carter has the potential to be that type of offensive threat down the road). However, we now would have a lot more size, length and defense in the rotation to help cover our weaknesses.
What concerns me the most is the "when he wants to be" part
 
I do think this eventually becomes a Fox vs. Monk situation, and if and when it does, the safer bet is picking Monk at this point. If the Kings are at all into making a major move then that move is clearly and obviously best being Fox. It just is what it is. If this doesn't work, that typical 7-8 year run a player like him has in a smaller market is at an end. The Kings have dictated what they've done with this build for 3-4 seasons now around Fox. They've traded major pieces for him, they've even drafted a player in the top of the lottery partly for fit reasons. They went out and signed DeMar as a win now move. That cap space chance is gone, it was used wisely, but now you have to tear down to add elsewhere. Going any deeper into a Fox build with his contract situation, the Kings cap situation, and with the number of years he's been here along with all the things swirling would be an unwise move for the survival of the franchise moving forward. Don't go any deeper than you have to if you're Monte. DO NOT PULL A SUNS. If the Kings can pick up a Collins for cheap, fine, go ahead, but of all the players on the market, none of those players are guaranteed to push the Kings over the top on their own because we still don't even know if they are anywhere near the top to begin with. The rest of this season will determine that.

We'd have to see how it turns out but while Monk is nowhere near the impact player Fox is, the Kings have great answers already defensively in Keon and Carter to slide next to him not to mention Monk and Domas' synergy. The stats right now indicate the issue is Fox and Monk being your backcourt. It's all impact on one side of the ball and we already know that style isn't taking them anywhere. Been there, done that in a conference much, much weaker than it is currently. Now that things are starting to settle the Kings starting lineup with Fox and Monk handling the backcourt duties is trending back to where it has been for 2 seasons now, into the negative. Defense is good for 25th and the net rating is like 1.5.

The good news is, regardless if they did choose Fox or Monk, the numbers show that either one of Keon or Carter takes this team from *** on defense to elite. How could that be? Because then you don't have Keegan out there on an island in POA. He can now switch and hover which we have seen that value lately. Will the numbers hold up? Probably not, but them being better is almost a given.

The plan here should be seeing how the season shakes out then if you come up short? You trade Fox in the offseason. Go for picks, not talent. Talent has to be re-signed, developed, or shined up. If you can get a more proven decent young wing talent that isn't already due for a max, great, if not, oh well. It better be a wing though because the next issue coming up is DeMar ramping down. The way to pull that off is to at some point use his salary and picks to find his replacement if you haven't been able to develop it already. The players I'd be looking at would be players like Trey Murphy and Jaylen Brown. See where they or their teams head. Maybe you do swing for a star at that point, maybe Zion is in a different place in a season or two. Ingram might have been signed to a regretful contract. There should be options there and maybe more than now.

As much as it hurts, if the Kings don't finish the season strong and perform in the playoffs it's time to move on from Fox. That's the smart play. The Kings aren't being left with nothing should that happen and it could actually propel them to not suffer the same fate as teams like the Suns or Lakers.
 
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Monk and Fox can play together the problem is and always will be Derozan. You can’t have a third ball dominant player that guy should be a wing defender even a guy like Cam Johnson would work. That’s enough defense to work with an elite offense but y’all love the 35 year old iso scorer
 
Monk and Fox can play together the problem is and always will be Derozan. You can’t have a third ball dominant player that guy should be a wing defender even a guy like Cam Johnson would work. That’s enough defense to work with an elite offense but y’all love the 35 year old iso scorer
Then why are the same 5 man stats in line with Barnes in his place from previous seasons? With Barnes in there instead of DeMar the Kings were at -1.8 net, and at an atrocious 117 defensive rating. The offense is actually BETTER with DeMar over Barnes. Cam would actually have a very similar role offensively to Barnes I'd bet. And Cam isn't changing anyones defense by himself, not by a long shot. Carter and Keon apparently already are though, hmmm, go figure.

Adding a defender at SF and pushing DeMar around to placate Fox could work, but we know who is finishing games regardless. The offense ISN'T the issue. It's the defense. The starters are in the top 8-9 in offensive rating, the defense is 25th and falling. The net rating is now at 0.8 after the Knicks loss post Brown. Since Christie took over the Kings offense has jumped into the top 5 but the defense has flatlined at around 14th to 15th, but that's clearly being brought up by the non starters. I pointed this out prior, the only team to win a ring as low as 14th to 15th in defensive rating were the Nuggets, and that might have been a big gap year. I guess we will see if a team that low on defense can win a ring this season or not.

The truth is Fox on a max, no cap, trading out future parts to do it, DeMar eventually fading, etc. Nope, if there is a move to be made this summer, it's time to re-tool around Domas with flexibility and youth that fits and get out while you're ahead rather than go all in and potentially end up like the Suns. The Kings are younger but if it doesn't work you're looking at then re-tooling around Fox and Domas when they are in their 30's IF they don't want out. Nope, not wise. This core needs to show it's worth investing in here at the end of the season, and if it's middling results? Be smart, don't throw the next chunk of seasons away on a gamble.

DeMar has a workable contract. Monk has a workable contract. Once Fox is maxed to whatever degree that is, it's going to be much more difficult to build around him than those two.
 
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