If Fox wants to stay here, I think it would be unwise to trade him for a few reasons…
- We’re not going to get another player of his caliber (or better) back in a trade and you need stars to be able to win at a high level in this league. When the game slows down and defenses tighten up, you need guys who can collapse a defense or go get a bucket by themselves. Fox can do just that.
- I think he is a better shooter than what he has shown this season. First, we have to keep in mind that he shot 36.9% from 3 last season on 7.9 3PA per 36 min. Among players that averaged that many 3PAs per 36 min, Fox’s 3P% was 36th in the league. That’s pretty good. Secondly, despite his 3PT% not being where we want it this year, his FT% has been much improved at 82.3% (which is a good indication of his shooting potential). Lastly, he’s been playing with that finger injury all season long and it’s significant enough that it will require surgery in the offseason to fix. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fully healed Fox next year raise his 3PT% once again.
- He’s a two way player (when he wants to be). If we want to be a top team, we need to fill this roster with two way players around Sabonis. Fox being not only a star talent but someone who can defend at a high level (when he turns it on) is important come playoff time.
And to that last point, we should be trying to prioritize 2-way talents in terms of constructing this roster around Sabonis. Fox, Ellis, Carter, and Murray fit that description. Monk, Huerter, DeRozan, & Lyles…not so much. Now I’d be fine with having a 6th man on this roster who isn’t really a two way player but can help sustain the offense off the bench (Monk or DeRozan). However, the more players we have that fit this archetype, the more difficult it’s going to be to become a team that is both Top 10 in offense and Top 10 in defense (which you need to be if you want to be a top team).
With that in mind, I come back to the conclusion of preferring to trade Monk for various reasons...
- Looking across essentially all advanced impact stats, Fox is a more impactful player than Monk both on offense and defense. If we have to choose one, I'd prefer to go with the better player.
- A Fox & Monk combo is not ideal. We're much better when one of Fox or Monk is sharing the court with a 3&D defender (like Ellis)
- Since a Fox & Monk combo is not ideal, I'd prefer Monk to come off the bench and to not close games. However, I don't think Monk would be happy with that role change
- We already have 2 two-way guards to round out the rotation next to Fox (Ellis and Carter) who would allow Fox to take the easier defensive matchup all game long (allowing him to exert more energy on the offensive end). That gives us a 3 guard rotation with all of them being two-way players. That's great!
- I'm optimistic Carter can be more of a C&S threat on offense (sort of what Ellis is). I think he'll be able to run the PnR a bit, attack the paint, etc. That means Carter could help take over some of the scoring load Monk leaves behind (maybe not this year but in the future as Carter continues to develop)
- DeRozan could be used as our super 6th man in the future (especially since he'll be 36 at the start of next season) which means having a scoring/playmaking guard like Monk off the bench isn't as much of a need
So if I take a step back and assess what I would want our roster construction to look like in a
year or two, I'd be thinking about it as...
PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Murray / DeRozan
PF - ??? / Murray
C - Sabonis / ???
...while having the following assets & contracts to use in a trade....
Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Picks
For example, we could potentially make a trade like this to better balance & optimize our the roster...
Malik Monk
Kevin Huerter
Trey Lyles
Colby Jones
Doug McDermott
Pick(s)
for
John Collins
Cam Johnson
..that leaves us with a roster of....
PG - Fox / McLaughlin
SG - Ellis / Carter
SF - Johnson / DeRozan / Crowder
PF - Murray / Collins
C - Sabonis / Len
...and we could do a minute rotation of...
PG - Fox (34) / Carter (14)
SG - Ellis (30) / Carter (10) / DeRozan (8)
SF - Johnson (24) / DeRozan (24)
PF - Murray (30) / Collins (12) / Johnson (6)
C - Sabonis (34) / Collins (14)
Fox = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
DeRozan = 32 min
Ellis = 30 min
Johnson = 30 min
Murray = 30 min
Collins = 26 min
Carter = 24 min
Despite losing Monk, I still think that team can put up a ton of points considering Fox, DeRozan, Johnson, Murray, Collins, and Sabonis can all put up 15+ points (and Carter has the potential to be that type of offensive threat down the road). However, we now would have a lot more size, length and defense in the rotation to help cover our weaknesses.