HOT TAKES THREAD!!!
- Thread starter SLAB
- Start date
..I know
Thus why I said in my post "Now we obviously need to see him maintain these rates at 30+ MPG and increased USG"
What in his stat profile suggests he won't be able to maintain efficiency with his increased USG? We need to see it (duh), but there aren't any red flags that pop up that suggest he won't be a #1 very soon. We've seen in on countless occasions this year when he gets the offense run through him that he takes that workload increase with ease.
Also really dumb trying to compare a lead ball-handler AST rate to a rookie back-up big man who doesn't get starting minutes yet. It's not a comparison you can make because of how different their roles are right now. Once Bagley gets in the starting lineup and becomes a feature offensive weapon, then you can take a look at playmaking differences.
And I gave my prediction that its pretty unlikely that a player can maintain his efficency while increasing his efficency to a first option level
One thing that suggests it is that its simply quite rare. Its extremely hard to maintain efficency when increasing usage to a first option level. Its mostly because when your usage increases to first option level, it increases mainly isolation situations and those are often lower efficency situations. Also running the offense through you against backups is very different situation from you being the 1st option in first unit while opposition game plans against you. Most likely that would also decrease efficency.
First of all its definetly not dumb looking at players AST% when we are talking about wether this player could become a legit first option offensively. I dont care if you are a big man or not, I want my first option to create good efficent offense. If I want that, then I want my first option to be able to create to others as well. If he cant do that then I dont want him to be the first option in my offense. Bagley is a rookie big man so its quite expected that he is horrible at distributing the ball but its not about his role as you say. Its about what he is as a player, a rookie big man that has never been good at creating offense to others. He can improve but statistically nothing indicates that he will ever become good at creating to others.
Thats why there was so much discussion pre draft. Its historically quite rare to have an elite level offense produced by a big man, at least according to OBPM. Once again I quote a great post made by @tyguy:
Its not a perfect metric or an absolute truth but its a pretty good indicator on that diffetent roles/positions have different values when compared. Especially if we are only talking about first option offensive creators.
Just as a disclaimer, I think Bagley did well in his rookie year and I might have even underrated him a bit pre draft but mostly because his defense is bit better than I expected. This is seriously not ment to be a knock on Bagley, but simply a reply to a question of why we shouldnt probably expect him to be an elite first option offensively.
One thing that suggests it is that its simply quite rare. Its extremely hard to maintain efficency when increasing usage to a first option level. Its mostly because when your usage increases to first option level, it increases mainly isolation situations and those are often lower efficency situations. Also running the offense through you against backups is very different situation from you being the 1st option in first unit while opposition game plans against you. Most likely that would also decrease efficency.
First of all its definetly not dumb looking at players AST% when we are talking about wether this player could become a legit first option offensively. I dont care if you are a big man or not, I want my first option to create good efficent offense. If I want that, then I want my first option to be able to create to others as well. If he cant do that then I dont want him to be the first option in my offense. Bagley is a rookie big man so its quite expected that he is horrible at distributing the ball but its not about his role as you say. Its about what he is as a player, a rookie big man that has never been good at creating offense to others. He can improve but statistically nothing indicates that he will ever become good at creating to others.
Thats why there was so much discussion pre draft. Its historically quite rare to have an elite level offense produced by a big man, at least according to OBPM. Once again I quote a great post made by @tyguy:
Its not a perfect metric or an absolute truth but its a pretty good indicator on that diffetent roles/positions have different values when compared. Especially if we are only talking about first option offensive creators.
Just as a disclaimer, I think Bagley did well in his rookie year and I might have even underrated him a bit pre draft but mostly because his defense is bit better than I expected. This is seriously not ment to be a knock on Bagley, but simply a reply to a question of why we shouldnt probably expect him to be an elite first option offensively.
QFT.
Well thought out and logical. Does it qualify as a "hot take" under those circumstances?
Well thought out and logical. Does it qualify as a "hot take" under those circumstances?
huh? That's literally the path 95% of great offensive players take in the NBA, especially rookie big men who are never the focus of their team's offense in that first season. You look for indicators that a young player can take that step; how often is he getting to free throw line? Where is he taking his shots? Does he protect the ball? Is he efficient? Bagley shines in all these categories with a decently high USG rate already at 23% that is usually indicative of a 2nd or 3rd option on a team. It's the first step to seeing if he can handle the increased workload while maintaining his effectiveness.
Again, duh. But players like Doncic are the exception to the rule where they walk in to the NBA with a #1 workload. Anthony Davis for example in his rookie year:
28.8 MPG
21.8% USG
55.9% TS
10.3% TOV
6.1% AST
Looks eerily similar to a certain someone no? Again, you look for the indicators that someone can handle the #1 workload. Virtually all rookies aren't expected to take that role from day 1.
Yes it is. Role is everything with regards to playmaking and creating for others. What are you even talking about? Bagley isn't asked to be the lead option and have the offense run through him like Doncic is. I'm not claiming he'd be anywhere close to his AST rate, but I'd be willing to bet his AST% dramatically rises next year when he's with the starters and becomes a more feature weapon in the offense. AST rate is directly tied to the offensive role you're asked to play. Pat Bev has an 18% Ast rate as a guard that plays 28-30 MPG, but that's because he's not asked to be a playmaker.
Again, duh. But players like Doncic are the exception to the rule where they walk in to the NBA with a #1 workload. Anthony Davis for example in his rookie year:
28.8 MPG
21.8% USG
55.9% TS
10.3% TOV
6.1% AST
Looks eerily similar to a certain someone no? Again, you look for the indicators that someone can handle the #1 workload. Virtually all rookies aren't expected to take that role from day 1.
Yes it is. Role is everything with regards to playmaking and creating for others. What are you even talking about? Bagley isn't asked to be the lead option and have the offense run through him like Doncic is. I'm not claiming he'd be anywhere close to his AST rate, but I'd be willing to bet his AST% dramatically rises next year when he's with the starters and becomes a more feature weapon in the offense. AST rate is directly tied to the offensive role you're asked to play. Pat Bev has an 18% Ast rate as a guard that plays 28-30 MPG, but that's because he's not asked to be a playmaker.
It's no secret that the best players in the league are the big strong guys who can shoot, drive, pass and get to the line. Lebron, Giannis, Harden, Durant, George etc. Doncic has a chance to be knocking on that door. He might not be quite as good as those guys due to not having the same level of athleticism but he should be able to lead his teams to a bunch of playoff berths as the #1 option. Build a team around him and who knows in the future? Half of these guys will be retired or too old in his prime.
Back in the day the Shaqs and Hakeems were elite elite. Fast forward 20 years and a handful of rule changes and those guys wouldn't be as effective as they were back in the day. Not saying they still wouldn't be awesome today, they just wouldn't be as effective as they were in 1995 due to the rules changes and how nearly every player can shoot 3s. Bagley would probably wind up being elite elite in the 90s. In the 2020s he's probably just going to wind up being a good player as far as playing winning basketball goes but unless he develops into more of a Giannis type player and less of a post player, his play won't be elite elite as far as the guys who can lead their teams to the playoffs goes.
To me it has nothing to do with Bagley and everything to do with the stupid rules the NBA has implemented that has watered the game down and almost completely destroyed the value of the offensive minded big man.
Back in the day the Shaqs and Hakeems were elite elite. Fast forward 20 years and a handful of rule changes and those guys wouldn't be as effective as they were back in the day. Not saying they still wouldn't be awesome today, they just wouldn't be as effective as they were in 1995 due to the rules changes and how nearly every player can shoot 3s. Bagley would probably wind up being elite elite in the 90s. In the 2020s he's probably just going to wind up being a good player as far as playing winning basketball goes but unless he develops into more of a Giannis type player and less of a post player, his play won't be elite elite as far as the guys who can lead their teams to the playoffs goes.
To me it has nothing to do with Bagley and everything to do with the stupid rules the NBA has implemented that has watered the game down and almost completely destroyed the value of the offensive minded big man.
My hot takes...
I never thought Bogie would be a viable backup PG option. Never saw him as a primary ball handler and I think we are seeing what happens when you have a guy who is decent at ball handling actually try and run a team for large stretches. The team needs a real backup PG and he needs to play backup minutes at SG where he actually has an advantage on other backup SGs.
The Kings need to find a real interior defender that packs the paint. This is even with the emergence of Giles and Bagley. They need a guy who can defend the rim and if Bagley and Giles can't play good enough defense in time, then someone is going to need to be traded to balance the team out better. All offense, no defense teams usually peak out around the 8th seed.
For as many gripes as Giles gets for fouling, Brewer is fouling at almost the same rate as he is.
Joerger should not in any way be fired this year. If the team is healthy and doesn't make the playoffs next year then I can see the conversation being had.
I never thought Bogie would be a viable backup PG option. Never saw him as a primary ball handler and I think we are seeing what happens when you have a guy who is decent at ball handling actually try and run a team for large stretches. The team needs a real backup PG and he needs to play backup minutes at SG where he actually has an advantage on other backup SGs.
The Kings need to find a real interior defender that packs the paint. This is even with the emergence of Giles and Bagley. They need a guy who can defend the rim and if Bagley and Giles can't play good enough defense in time, then someone is going to need to be traded to balance the team out better. All offense, no defense teams usually peak out around the 8th seed.
For as many gripes as Giles gets for fouling, Brewer is fouling at almost the same rate as he is.
Joerger should not in any way be fired this year. If the team is healthy and doesn't make the playoffs next year then I can see the conversation being had.
Bagley is more in the mold of Giannis and Durant than Shaq and Hakeem. Bagley has a post up game, face up game, hits mid range jumpers, is starting to hit 3's, can drive to the basket and gets to the foul line at a high rate. He is anything but a one dimensional plodding 90's post player.
Last edited:
Think you better check the stats.
About 80 percent of Bagley’s points this season have been at the rim.
He occasionally hits a three or a midrange.
But, is that his game. No way. I don’t see it.
He can definitely be a 20 pt player
Could he be a Durant type player one day. If he puts on some more muscle and
Diversified his game. Possible.
Freak: Sorry,
You lost me there.
Freak can cover 1-5,
Bagley is light years from being the Giannis.
Body type as well.
Ain’t happening!
A unicorn he’s not.
Once again, today’s NBA is predicated in guard play and wings! That’s a fact.
This is not 1998. Where big men were the key to winning championships. That ship has sailed.
Doncic will always have more value no matter what. Even if the stats are somewhat similar.
Right, you’d think by now the debate on here would stop on wings vs bigs unless said big is Emiiid and I’ll add Jokic. But Jokic as basically a playmaking big.
Bagley can get us 25-10-3 vs Luka let’s say 23-8-6 (wha t he’s been basically averaging since January). Stats look close till you watch the game and see Luka is running the show and creating offense the others. There’s only so much a big can do.
Bagley can get us 25-10-3 vs Luka let’s say 23-8-6 (wha t he’s been basically averaging since January). Stats look close till you watch the game and see Luka is running the show and creating offense the others. There’s only so much a big can do.
Yeah thats the path but its a hard path. If it wasnt so hard a lot of people would be able to do that. In reality there are quite few players that can make that leap. As I said my prediction bases on couple of things: 1)Bagley is not a good 1-1 iso player and increasing usage to a first option level means increasing iso situations. 2) a lot of Bagleys current stats comes against backups. Going against the starters as a number one focus of the defense decreases efficency.
Im not saying its impossible, I'm saying its very hard so it shouldnt be looked at as an obvious thing that it will happen. It probably wont happen next year, maybe after couple of years but even then its a maybe.
If your role is to be a first option as was discussed, looking at AST% is definetly not stupid. Creating for others is a very important part of being a good first option offensively. Thats just how it is and the whole point of this discussion was that why wouldnt this player become an elite first option. Elite offensive players are able to create to others. If you dont do that, you are not an elite offensive player.
Pat Beverly is not asked to be a playmaker because he cant be a playmaker. Hes a defensive specialist and generates value other ways than making plays offensively. And thats the case with a lot of big men as it is with Bagley. Thats why a lot of elite big men are those that are also very good defensively like Davis, Embiid, Duncan, Garnet ect.
Im not saying its impossible, I'm saying its very hard so it shouldnt be looked at as an obvious thing that it will happen. It probably wont happen next year, maybe after couple of years but even then its a maybe.
If your role is to be a first option as was discussed, looking at AST% is definetly not stupid. Creating for others is a very important part of being a good first option offensively. Thats just how it is and the whole point of this discussion was that why wouldnt this player become an elite first option. Elite offensive players are able to create to others. If you dont do that, you are not an elite offensive player.
Pat Beverly is not asked to be a playmaker because he cant be a playmaker. Hes a defensive specialist and generates value other ways than making plays offensively. And thats the case with a lot of big men as it is with Bagley. Thats why a lot of elite big men are those that are also very good defensively like Davis, Embiid, Duncan, Garnet ect.
