This is not a prediction. This is a projection of what has to happened for the Kings to shock the NBA world. Is it likely? No. It is possible? Yes. Anything is possible. That is why they play the games. 
This is the time of the year when fans are killing time until glorious preseason game numero uno and projecting the allocation of minutes. Sensible but boring. That doesn’t interest me or excite me. What interests me and excites me is the potential of the team and the prospects for that potential being realized.
Projecting PT allocation is a futile exercise if you believe, rightfully so, the NBA is a league of match-ups, hot hands and cold hands, and coaches who yield minutes accordingly on a night to night basis. George Hill said himself, paraphrasing, whether he plays 4 minutes or 40 minutes does not matter as long as the team is the most competitive and successful it can be.
Amen, brother.
There is also the not so insignificant variable that the respective players Bogdan and De’Aaron will be after 20 to 30 games will not be the same player they will be on opening night. Playing time will be adjusted accordingly. These two rookies have star potential. Their respective learning curve projects to be rather steep. Going through the league one time will tell them a lot about what they can and can’t do and how to make themselves most relevant.
Then there’s the Big X factor or the Big W factor, if you will. Who is Willie Cauley-Stein?
Is he the guy the front office purportedly put on the trading block while getting buried behind Boogie and Koufos the first half of the year averaging an 6 PPG and 3 RPG and running around the court without an aggressive bone in his body? Or is he the guy who decided to rebound the ball the last 30 games outside of his area, execute nifty interior passes to Skal, Buddy and friends, and showed a face-up game with length and bounce?
The question in regards to Willie is how much of his struggles in his first two seasons were due to Boogie being in his way and how much were due to simply not being very good? Following his Navy SEAL training this summer, we are about to find out.
In best case scenario, Willie turns into a player with impact similar to Rudy Gobert. He’s NOT going be the defensive force of Gobert. But on the glimpses he showed he can be more of an offensive threat. Where the skills of Gobert and Willie intersect is being a constant lob threat off pick and roll in half court and on the break and delayed break.
Both these guys have to be honored when they roll to the hoop or run straight line from end-to-end. This puts constant pressure on the defense to rotate back and helps to create space on the weak and strong side for our shooters. Willie as a lob threat opens up the corners and wings for uncontested looks.
I was wrong to project Willie’s development as a player based on becoming a low post threat. He’s not this type of player. He can score in spot situations out of the block. But he is more effective on the move, when he can survey the court and face up with a live dribble, instead of trying to overpower with power he lacks.
Lob threats are awesome when you have PGs like Fox and Hill who have the length and speed to create angles and lob it up where it can be caught and flushed. Lawson was very good at finding Willie. Collison was not good. Fox and Hill project to be as good or better. This portends good things. Willie needs to be a serious weapon in this regard every night if the season is going to be a success.
With this prelude out of the way, this is what you need to know heading into training camp:
The strength of the Kings in 2017-18 is their backcourt. Without doing so much as a cursory comparison against all 29 other teams, I can say the Kings have Top 10 NBA potential at SG and PG collectively. The Kings also have depth at every position. They have capable back-ups at every position. What we don’t know is if they possess capable starters across the front court at ALL three spots. That’s a lot of unknowns and why the team is projected to win only 28 games by odds makers.
Is Willie a capable starter who can defend without fouling and average 12 PPG 11 RPG and 2 APG and 1 BPG and fulfill his potential as former 6th pick? I don’t know. I have my doubts. Is Skal a capable starting PF? I don’t know. I think he is. The bigger question is “when” rather than “if”. Skal has played 33 NBA games in his career. Asking him to play starting minutes in his 34th game of his pro career may be asking too much too soon. I think he is foul prone and susceptible to being overpowered and this could delay his emergence. I also think he is a natural scorer with a low post ability that will eventually demand a double team. I think he has a unblock-able release point when he faces up. He is too quick for bigger guys and too long for smaller guys. He is a match-up nightmare in the works. When this nightmare comes to fruition is what the fans and front office are dreaming about.
The likelihood of this occurrence and Chris Bosh-like career is strengthened by the character of the individual. He wants to be great. He doesn’t just talk a good game. He backs it up with effort and dedication to his craft. He underwhelmed at Kentucky. He slid in the draft. He was projected as back-up, a role player, an afterthought. He has a chip on his shoulder. He has a vendetta against the teams that didn’t think he was good enough. That this amounts to almost every team in the league is a mental edge
Elsewhere, is Temple or Jackson or Malachi a capable starting small forward? I don’t think so. But stranger things have happened and less likely players have emerged.
For the Kings to win 40 games and challenge for 8th seed, two of these above questions along the frontline have be answered affirmatively. Then the remaining hole in the starting line-up can be filled by committee and Kings can compete against the best in the NBA. This is not a far fetched statement. The Kings went into Oakland late last season and competed well against full Warriors squad for two or three quarters. And that was with the scrubs like Affalo and Ben soaking up minutes.
No one believed in them. But they believed in themselves. They believed in their coach, their system and what could be achieved with the distraction and monopolizer of possessions and oxygen in the room vanquished to New Orleans. This collective self-belief counts for a lot, and this was before our fruitful off-season.
Teams go as far as their stars take them. The Kings are in pressing need of stars. Fortunately we have a few promising candidates:.
Let’s take these assets one by one and project the level of production that needs to occur to lift the team from the depths of incompetence to the cusp of killing-it cohesively.
Buddy: Buddy has his doubters. I am not one of them. Buddy is a shot maker. Buddy is not just a three point shooter. I defended him early and often following his acquisition. Like Vivek and the front office, I have a high opinion of Buddy going back to OSU. There are critics who see the lack of explosion and length and pencil him in as back-up on 6th man. I see a player who more than makes up for these deficiencies with intangible qualities, a superior work ethic, basketball intellect, left hand and underrated in-between game.
One of the number one predictors of the success of lack thereof for guards is an ability to get clean looks at the hoop. In a way Buddy has turned his lack of elite athleticism into a positive by committing to work harder with and without the ball to get free for shots. He is NOT unlike Steph Curry in this regards in that he is constant motion to move to an open spot on the floor and make himself formidable threat. Part of this is solid instinct and part of this is tireless work ethic and competitive instinct.
Would you rather root for, and invest emotionally in , a player of this mentality and set of attributes or the guy who can run faster and jump higher like Ben? It is a no-brainer.
The challenge for Buddy is teams will key in on him defensively like they did not in his rookie year. The book will be out on strengths and weaknesses. The reason for optimism is Buddy has already showed an impressive array of counter moves. You want to run him off the three line? Not a problem. You want to give up the mid range shot? Not a problem. He can shoot and easy floater off one foot. You want to force him left? Thank you very much!
Buddy needs to tighten his handles and take more pride in his defense and he has star written over him. I see a 16PPG to 18 PPG this season on above average efficiency. I did not mention Buddy has an underrated ability to draw and kick. He also is capable of exploding after a cold stretch or silent quarters. Only stars and potential stars go from dormant to dominant with 8 points in 90 seconds and clutch threes after missing 3 in a row. And those who don't see this obvious awesomeness are selling this player short, destined to be proven wrong again in 17-18.
(This post is continued in the next thread since the limit is 2000 words and my pre-season commentary is 4000 words)
This is the time of the year when fans are killing time until glorious preseason game numero uno and projecting the allocation of minutes. Sensible but boring. That doesn’t interest me or excite me. What interests me and excites me is the potential of the team and the prospects for that potential being realized.
Projecting PT allocation is a futile exercise if you believe, rightfully so, the NBA is a league of match-ups, hot hands and cold hands, and coaches who yield minutes accordingly on a night to night basis. George Hill said himself, paraphrasing, whether he plays 4 minutes or 40 minutes does not matter as long as the team is the most competitive and successful it can be.
Amen, brother.
There is also the not so insignificant variable that the respective players Bogdan and De’Aaron will be after 20 to 30 games will not be the same player they will be on opening night. Playing time will be adjusted accordingly. These two rookies have star potential. Their respective learning curve projects to be rather steep. Going through the league one time will tell them a lot about what they can and can’t do and how to make themselves most relevant.
Then there’s the Big X factor or the Big W factor, if you will. Who is Willie Cauley-Stein?
Is he the guy the front office purportedly put on the trading block while getting buried behind Boogie and Koufos the first half of the year averaging an 6 PPG and 3 RPG and running around the court without an aggressive bone in his body? Or is he the guy who decided to rebound the ball the last 30 games outside of his area, execute nifty interior passes to Skal, Buddy and friends, and showed a face-up game with length and bounce?
The question in regards to Willie is how much of his struggles in his first two seasons were due to Boogie being in his way and how much were due to simply not being very good? Following his Navy SEAL training this summer, we are about to find out.
In best case scenario, Willie turns into a player with impact similar to Rudy Gobert. He’s NOT going be the defensive force of Gobert. But on the glimpses he showed he can be more of an offensive threat. Where the skills of Gobert and Willie intersect is being a constant lob threat off pick and roll in half court and on the break and delayed break.
Both these guys have to be honored when they roll to the hoop or run straight line from end-to-end. This puts constant pressure on the defense to rotate back and helps to create space on the weak and strong side for our shooters. Willie as a lob threat opens up the corners and wings for uncontested looks.
I was wrong to project Willie’s development as a player based on becoming a low post threat. He’s not this type of player. He can score in spot situations out of the block. But he is more effective on the move, when he can survey the court and face up with a live dribble, instead of trying to overpower with power he lacks.
Lob threats are awesome when you have PGs like Fox and Hill who have the length and speed to create angles and lob it up where it can be caught and flushed. Lawson was very good at finding Willie. Collison was not good. Fox and Hill project to be as good or better. This portends good things. Willie needs to be a serious weapon in this regard every night if the season is going to be a success.
With this prelude out of the way, this is what you need to know heading into training camp:
The strength of the Kings in 2017-18 is their backcourt. Without doing so much as a cursory comparison against all 29 other teams, I can say the Kings have Top 10 NBA potential at SG and PG collectively. The Kings also have depth at every position. They have capable back-ups at every position. What we don’t know is if they possess capable starters across the front court at ALL three spots. That’s a lot of unknowns and why the team is projected to win only 28 games by odds makers.
Is Willie a capable starter who can defend without fouling and average 12 PPG 11 RPG and 2 APG and 1 BPG and fulfill his potential as former 6th pick? I don’t know. I have my doubts. Is Skal a capable starting PF? I don’t know. I think he is. The bigger question is “when” rather than “if”. Skal has played 33 NBA games in his career. Asking him to play starting minutes in his 34th game of his pro career may be asking too much too soon. I think he is foul prone and susceptible to being overpowered and this could delay his emergence. I also think he is a natural scorer with a low post ability that will eventually demand a double team. I think he has a unblock-able release point when he faces up. He is too quick for bigger guys and too long for smaller guys. He is a match-up nightmare in the works. When this nightmare comes to fruition is what the fans and front office are dreaming about.
The likelihood of this occurrence and Chris Bosh-like career is strengthened by the character of the individual. He wants to be great. He doesn’t just talk a good game. He backs it up with effort and dedication to his craft. He underwhelmed at Kentucky. He slid in the draft. He was projected as back-up, a role player, an afterthought. He has a chip on his shoulder. He has a vendetta against the teams that didn’t think he was good enough. That this amounts to almost every team in the league is a mental edge
Elsewhere, is Temple or Jackson or Malachi a capable starting small forward? I don’t think so. But stranger things have happened and less likely players have emerged.
For the Kings to win 40 games and challenge for 8th seed, two of these above questions along the frontline have be answered affirmatively. Then the remaining hole in the starting line-up can be filled by committee and Kings can compete against the best in the NBA. This is not a far fetched statement. The Kings went into Oakland late last season and competed well against full Warriors squad for two or three quarters. And that was with the scrubs like Affalo and Ben soaking up minutes.
No one believed in them. But they believed in themselves. They believed in their coach, their system and what could be achieved with the distraction and monopolizer of possessions and oxygen in the room vanquished to New Orleans. This collective self-belief counts for a lot, and this was before our fruitful off-season.
Teams go as far as their stars take them. The Kings are in pressing need of stars. Fortunately we have a few promising candidates:.
- Buddy
- Bogdan
- De’Aaron
- Hill
- Skal
Let’s take these assets one by one and project the level of production that needs to occur to lift the team from the depths of incompetence to the cusp of killing-it cohesively.
Buddy: Buddy has his doubters. I am not one of them. Buddy is a shot maker. Buddy is not just a three point shooter. I defended him early and often following his acquisition. Like Vivek and the front office, I have a high opinion of Buddy going back to OSU. There are critics who see the lack of explosion and length and pencil him in as back-up on 6th man. I see a player who more than makes up for these deficiencies with intangible qualities, a superior work ethic, basketball intellect, left hand and underrated in-between game.
One of the number one predictors of the success of lack thereof for guards is an ability to get clean looks at the hoop. In a way Buddy has turned his lack of elite athleticism into a positive by committing to work harder with and without the ball to get free for shots. He is NOT unlike Steph Curry in this regards in that he is constant motion to move to an open spot on the floor and make himself formidable threat. Part of this is solid instinct and part of this is tireless work ethic and competitive instinct.
Would you rather root for, and invest emotionally in , a player of this mentality and set of attributes or the guy who can run faster and jump higher like Ben? It is a no-brainer.
The challenge for Buddy is teams will key in on him defensively like they did not in his rookie year. The book will be out on strengths and weaknesses. The reason for optimism is Buddy has already showed an impressive array of counter moves. You want to run him off the three line? Not a problem. You want to give up the mid range shot? Not a problem. He can shoot and easy floater off one foot. You want to force him left? Thank you very much!
Buddy needs to tighten his handles and take more pride in his defense and he has star written over him. I see a 16PPG to 18 PPG this season on above average efficiency. I did not mention Buddy has an underrated ability to draw and kick. He also is capable of exploding after a cold stretch or silent quarters. Only stars and potential stars go from dormant to dominant with 8 points in 90 seconds and clutch threes after missing 3 in a row. And those who don't see this obvious awesomeness are selling this player short, destined to be proven wrong again in 17-18.
(This post is continued in the next thread since the limit is 2000 words and my pre-season commentary is 4000 words)
