KF Draft Board
- Thread starter sterö
- Start date
Okay I'm going to have a go at this, but just include where I think there is a change in tier of player
1. Doncic
Been my #1 guy all year. I'll be so disappointed if we don't end up drafting him for whatever reason. To me he's the no brainer best prospect in the draft
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2. Marvin Bagley
3. Jaren Jackson
4. Deandre Ayton
I've re-ordered these guys so many times I've lost count. I've resulted to just referring to them as 2a, 2b, 2c. Fantastic consolation prizes if we miss out on Doncic. Will be VERY frustrated if the pick isn't one of these top 4 players.
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5. Porter
Can see the argument for him being rated higher in talent but I can't look past the injury and the fact he didn't play all year.
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6. Bamba?
I also have Young, Carter, Smith & the Bridges is this tier. All seem like nice prospects, I tend to favour the swing for the fence prospects at this point though (Bamba/Smith).
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1. Doncic
Been my #1 guy all year. I'll be so disappointed if we don't end up drafting him for whatever reason. To me he's the no brainer best prospect in the draft
_________________________________________
2. Marvin Bagley
3. Jaren Jackson
4. Deandre Ayton
I've re-ordered these guys so many times I've lost count. I've resulted to just referring to them as 2a, 2b, 2c. Fantastic consolation prizes if we miss out on Doncic. Will be VERY frustrated if the pick isn't one of these top 4 players.
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5. Porter
Can see the argument for him being rated higher in talent but I can't look past the injury and the fact he didn't play all year.
____________________________
6. Bamba?
I also have Young, Carter, Smith & the Bridges is this tier. All seem like nice prospects, I tend to favour the swing for the fence prospects at this point though (Bamba/Smith).
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I can't wait to the fan meltdown when we pass on Luka. 
To the Luka fans (of which I am mild one) I ask what does he do great? What greatness does he possess to justify going #2? The correct answer is not awards he received or the age he turned pro. I am talking about what does he do great on the floor? Cue Jeopardy theme song.I would suggest if he does something great, that trait is possessed to a degree with Fox or Boggy. How is it prudent to construct a team with duplicative skills when greatness of the skill is in doubt? Meanwhile we have no well-defined #1 scorer no beast down low. Here is my Top 6, which may as well be Top 5 since we already know who is going #1, the Suns basically confirmed it yesterday.
Ayton
Bagley
Bamba
Luka
Miles Bridges
Sexton
I don't what the fuss is about JJJ. Hard pass on his lumbering deliberate game. He finishes all left on the interior. No right hand. You have two diamonds in the rough in Bamba and Bagley. It's right there before you. Bamba can be Embiid. Bagley can be AD-like. Luka is this years Lonzo. If you set aside the hype and take a close look at the competition and lack of burst and juke moves and spraying of shots then you are like "yikes". Vlade would have took Lonzo Bust at #2. He is going to blow it this year too if left to his own delusions. Brandon, please save this guy from himself.
To the Luka fans (of which I am mild one) I ask what does he do great? What greatness does he possess to justify going #2? The correct answer is not awards he received or the age he turned pro. I am talking about what does he do great on the floor? Cue Jeopardy theme song.I would suggest if he does something great, that trait is possessed to a degree with Fox or Boggy. How is it prudent to construct a team with duplicative skills when greatness of the skill is in doubt? Meanwhile we have no well-defined #1 scorer no beast down low. Here is my Top 6, which may as well be Top 5 since we already know who is going #1, the Suns basically confirmed it yesterday.Ayton
Bagley
Bamba
Luka
Miles Bridges
Sexton
I don't what the fuss is about JJJ. Hard pass on his lumbering deliberate game. He finishes all left on the interior. No right hand. You have two diamonds in the rough in Bamba and Bagley. It's right there before you. Bamba can be Embiid. Bagley can be AD-like. Luka is this years Lonzo. If you set aside the hype and take a close look at the competition and lack of burst and juke moves and spraying of shots then you are like "yikes". Vlade would have took Lonzo Bust at #2. He is going to blow it this year too if left to his own delusions. Brandon, please save this guy from himself.
I can't wait to the fan meltdown when we pass on Luka. To the Luka fans (of which I am mild one) I ask what does he do great? What greatness does he possess to justify going #2? The correct answer is not awards he received or the age he turned pro. I am talking about what does he do great on the floor? Cue Jeopardy theme song.I would suggest if he does something great, that trait is possessed to a degree with Fox or Boggy. How is it prudent to construct a team with duplicative skills when greatness of the skill is in doubt? Meanwhile we have no well-defined #1 scorer no beast down low. Here is my Top 6, which may as well be Top 5 since we already know who is going #1, the Suns basically confirmed it yesterday.
Ayton
Bagley
Bamba
Luka
Miles Bridges
Sexton
I don't what the fuss is about JJJ. Hard pass on his lumbering deliberate game. He finishes all left on the interior. No right hand. You have two diamonds in the rough in Bamba and Bagley. It's right there before you. Bamba can be Embiid. Bagley can be AD-like. Luka is this years Lonzo. If you set aside the hype and take a close look at the competition and lack of burst and juke moves and spraying of shots then you are like "yikes". Vlade would have took Lonzo Bust at #2. He is going to blow it this year too if left to his own delusions. Brandon, please save this guy from himself.
To the Luka fans (of which I am mild one) I ask what does he do great? What greatness does he possess to justify going #2? The correct answer is not awards he received or the age he turned pro. I am talking about what does he do great on the floor? Cue Jeopardy theme song.I would suggest if he does something great, that trait is possessed to a degree with Fox or Boggy. How is it prudent to construct a team with duplicative skills when greatness of the skill is in doubt? Meanwhile we have no well-defined #1 scorer no beast down low. Here is my Top 6, which may as well be Top 5 since we already know who is going #1, the Suns basically confirmed it yesterday.Ayton
Bagley
Bamba
Luka
Miles Bridges
Sexton
I don't what the fuss is about JJJ. Hard pass on his lumbering deliberate game. He finishes all left on the interior. No right hand. You have two diamonds in the rough in Bamba and Bagley. It's right there before you. Bamba can be Embiid. Bagley can be AD-like. Luka is this years Lonzo. If you set aside the hype and take a close look at the competition and lack of burst and juke moves and spraying of shots then you are like "yikes". Vlade would have took Lonzo Bust at #2. He is going to blow it this year too if left to his own delusions. Brandon, please save this guy from himself.
I am not going to dignify that question since you know I think far more comprehensively about these prospects. JJJ is deliberate limited player, It is obvious. He has a nice career ahead of him but he's not a stud. He's like Derrick Favors. Sturdy not spectacular. Fans are comparing him to Bamba?! There is NO comparison! Bamba is an incredible prospect. He's a unicorn. Fans are letting preconceived bias get in the way in their dismissal of Bamba for this bum with a jacked back. As far as Bagley, he makes the game look easy even without a right hand. Because he makes the game look so easy (a hallmark of greatness) fans discount the raw talent and the high floor.
JJJ has an elite skill (defense) what elite skill does bagley have? It certainly isn't defense. The chance of him becoming an elite offensive player are slim to none also. The only players that are high impact game altering offensive players A. Create shots for themselves B. Create shots for others. B is out of the question, it's extremely rare for a big and Bagley has not shown the chops. As far as creating offense for himself, post offense is inefficient.
In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.
—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.
—Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher
Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB, Jokic, Karl Malone. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.
—Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional Big big.
The story is the same for offensive RPM.
2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).
2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)
2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)
2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)
2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)
ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.
+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.
In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.
—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.
—Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher
Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB, Jokic, Karl Malone. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.
—Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional Big big.
The story is the same for offensive RPM.
2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).
2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)
2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)
2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)
2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)
ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.
+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.
I have Luka Doncic comfortably #1 because he's the only player in this draft to display potential as an elite offensive player. I.E being able to create offense for himself and others at a high level. MPJ might be a guy who can create offense for himself, but Luka has shown way more at a much higher level.
