All that going to NY for a bigger market is bs in my opinion. Lebron is going to make big money with any team. The endorsements are all international so it doesn't require him to be in NY. Maybe he'll miss out on a few local NY gigs, but the fact that the Cavs can offer $30 million more more than makes up for it.
It comes down to winning. His decision will probably be based on whether he is confident the guys he has on the Cavs can win a championship. If they can't, how long will it take to rebuild the roster. Their biggest chance to rebuild quick is getting some nice pieces for Shaq. With most of the teams in the NBA losing money, someone will make a cost cutting move next year. Can the cavs capitalize? Or better yet, can they convince Lebron to stay based on the possibility of getting some pieces back for shaq? It'll be interesting.