TheWileyVet
Starter
If we don't get top 2 I will puke.
Draft position thread
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
If we don't get top 2 I will puke.
There is at least a 53.5% chance you will puke.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
Okay, they're not great odds. Still the best odds possible and that's all you can really ask for.
vikinginferno
Starter
How do you know he won't drop to 3rd? What if a team like Chicago with already a great young PG gets the 2nd pick? OKC wouldn't take Rubio, they already have Westbrook. I have doubts about Washington taking Rubio, they still have tons of faith in Gilbert Arenas. I doubt the Knicks would take him with already 2 good PGs in Duhon and Robinson. Toronto has Calderon already, Bucks already have Sessions, Nets have Devin Harris, Bobcats already have 2 young PGs in Augustin and Felton. So most of the teams would likely take someone else over Rubio at the 2nd spot and if we get the 3rd pick he could very easily drop to us and we might even be able to get him at the 4th.
In most cases teams drafting that high go for the best available player no matter what they need.
vikinginferno
Starter
Yeah, but the thing is that he isn't like a MUST PICK type of guy and with a guy like Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook who you know is going to turn out to be great, why would you take another that you don't know whether he will become a good player or not? If there was a huge dropoff after Rubio then yeah probably most teams would not pass up on him even if they already have a good PG, but he just isn't that much greater a pick than other players near him.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
New York and the Bucks would likely take him -- Nate and Duhon as greta PGs?? Ha!
But the general point is right -- in a superstar draft you just take the superstar, position does not matter. If you have a good center, and the superstar is a center, you take him anyway and move one to PF. but in this draft only Griffin is likely to be guaranteed of going #1, and even that si a little shaky. We are one of the teams who do not really need him with Jason there, but its one of those dangerous situations where everybdoy thinks he;s the best prospect and if you pass on him and he turns out to be the pbest prospect you look like idiots, so its almost peer pressure. But everybody else? Needs will factor.
WSH -- SG, C (Harden, Thabeet)
OKC -- SG, C, maybe PF, certainly an Oklahoma boy (Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Hill?)
MEM -- PF, maybe PG (Griffin, Hill, Rubio?, Jennings?, Teague?, Curry?)
LAC -- who the hell knows. They already have everything, and lose anyway. Whoever they think is best. Who won't be of course.
SAC -- PG, SF?, defense
etc.
SacKings7
Starter
Umm, Chicago's in 7th at the moment, so no worries about them. OKC won't take him I don't think, and maybe not Washington, but the Knicks need an upgrade an PG (badly actually) and Rubio would fit in well with D'Antoni. And yes, the Bucks have Sessions, but they're likely gonna lose him in the offseason. Very unlikely that they get that high in the draft though
cigaM Numbers:
Oklahoma City: 1 (Cha, @Mil, @Por, @LAC)
Washington: 4 (@Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 4 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: Hou, @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings worst possible draft pick: 7th
Kings minimum lottery combos (out of 1000): 137
Oklahoma City: 1 (Cha, @Mil, @Por, @LAC)
Washington: 4 (@Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 4 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: Hou, @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings worst possible draft pick: 7th
Kings minimum lottery combos (out of 1000): 137
6th
Homer Fan Since 1985
Let me see if I understand this backwards Magic #. So, if Sac loses a game, then OKC is out of the running for the worst record. Wash and LAC would go to cigaM #3 meaning that any combination of Sac losses or Wash wins (and same for LAC) totalling 3 would end us in last place in the league with the best chance of getting the 1st pick.
CruzDude
Senior Member sharing a brew with bajaden
Hasn't someone posted that in the last 20 years of the lottery, the bottom dwelling team has only gotten the #1 pick 3 times? Sure hope the Kings can break that run to get Griffin. But somehow, my innards are telling me there is a sneaky trade on draft day in GP's scheme of things. Got nuttin to back that up just a hunch. Actually would rather have Griffin as don't think any of the PG's can come in and help for a year or so.
HighTopKicks
Bench
The current draft system has only been in affect since 1994, and since then the worst team has won 2, the 2nd worst team has won 1, and the 3rd worst team has won 4 times. But because the sampling is so small history has no bearing on the actual odds. With over 1000 possible combinations, you'd need hundreds of drafts to show the correct percentages, not 15.
That being said: In the last 15 drafts 2 of the bottom 3 teams have be picked in the bottom 3 lottery picks 66% of the time. And, the 3rd team cant do worst than 4th. And, only once has all 3 worst teams not been picked or 7% of the time. If I were a gambling man, I'd bet that the best player in the draft as determined 4 yrs from now, won't be in the 1st 3 picks anyways.
History has no bearing on odds. You can flip a coin 1,000,000 times, but the next time you flip, the odds for heads or tails is still 50-50, even if tails came up the other 999,999 times you flipped. (Unless you haven't noticed it's a trick coin.)
Thank you. The team with the worst record always has the best chance of getting #1 and cannot fall below #4. That is guaranteed, and that is what we are shooting for.
Kingster
Hall of Famer
I'm with you, HighTopKicks. I have a gut feeling that some of the riskier picks below the top three will end up being the better players. We'll see...
J
jdbraver
Guest
Tomorrow's game will be interesting. Who can suck more?
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
I'm mad we waived Solomon. I needed him to complete my starting lineup against the Clippers:
C- Booth
PF- Simmons
SF- Greene
SG- Diogu
PG- Solomon
Now the point is going to have to be BJax, and he's such a dork he'll actually try (which will put him one up on Baron).
C- Booth
PF- Simmons
SF- Greene
SG- Diogu
PG- Solomon
Now the point is going to have to be BJax, and he's such a dork he'll actually try (which will put him one up on Baron).
I would have too, until I saw him draining threes at the warmups tonight. And I mean draining them. Over and over.
cigaM Numbers:
Washington: 3 (@Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 3 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings worst possible draft pick: 6th
Kings minimum lottery combos (out of 1000): 156
Washington: 3 (@Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 3 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings worst possible draft pick: 6th
Kings minimum lottery combos (out of 1000): 156
Hallama
Starter
Interesting, both Washington and the Clipps are at 18 wins, so the Kings (16w) can still win one game and lose three and wrap up the worst record. Don't blow it now, Kings.
Losing to the Clipps tonight would make this a two-team race. Somehow, unfortunately, I smell a stinky 'w'ictory tonight.
Losing to the Clipps tonight would make this a two-team race. Somehow, unfortunately, I smell a stinky 'w'ictory tonight.
Interesting, both Washington and the Clipps are at 18 wins, so the Kings (16w) can still win one game and lose three and wrap up the worst record. Don't blow it now, Kings.
Losing to the Clipps tonight would make this a two-team race. Somehow, unfortunately, I smell a stinky 'w'ictory tonight.
Unfortunately we have 2 winnable games before the season ends. This game vs the Clippers and the last game vs the Wolves. Things may come down to the last game.
I'd like to beat the Clips and still have the worst record by one game. Let's shoot for that, OK?
That'd be fine by me if the Clips game were the last one of the season, and we'd already racked up lins for the other three. But, since it's not that way, I want some degree of certainty that our pre-lottery position is safe, which means: (1) lin over Clippers, (2) wose up to 2 out of the 3 remaining games. That is entirely feasible. We are NOT going to sweep the last 3 games.
Coach? I want to see plenty of those guys we don't plan on re-signing this summer. Nobody's ever given Diogu a fair chance. Now's the time. And if one of our starters isn't in perfect shape, why risk their health at the very end of a meaningless season, y'know? Kevin's hangnail may LOOK innocent enough, but you never know when those things will end in an amputated arm. Do the right thing and keep our starters safe, like the competition does for their best players.
