Draft position thread
- Thread starter fnordius
- Start date
It probably wouldn't matter if they did, their remaining games are: Portland, @Utah, and OKC. It would be an off night for OKC if they even won the last of those games. I'm expecting them to lin out the season if we don't force a woss on them.
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LWP777
Guest
Sorry if this question has already been posed in this thread but can somebody please fill in the blanks below.
Assuming we end up with the worst record what are the odds of:
Getting the 1st pick: 25%
Getting the 2nd pick: ???
Getting the 1st or 2nd pick: ???
Getting the 3rd pick: ???
Getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick: ???
Getting the 4th pick: ???
Getting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick: 100%
Assuming we end up with the worst record what are the odds of:
Getting the 1st pick: 25%
Getting the 2nd pick: ???
Getting the 1st or 2nd pick: ???
Getting the 3rd pick: ???
Getting the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pick: ???
Getting the 4th pick: ???
Getting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick: 100%
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LWP777
Guest
Thank you for the link. So here it is:
1st pick: 25%
2nd pick: 21.5%
1st or 2nd pick: 46.5%
3rd pick: 17.8%
1st, 2nd or 3rd pick: 64.3%
4th pick: 35.7%
1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pick: 100%
It's just so depressing to think that we have a 35.7% chance at the 4th pick after all the suffering we had this year. We are also more likely to pick 3 or 4 than we are 1 or 2 -- another depressing thought.
Maybe things will work out but it just seems the Sacramento Kings never get lucky with anything.
SacKings7
Starter
Yeah but you have the wrong mindset. If you look at it team-by-team instead of the Kings against the rest of the league, we'd still have the best chances at the top picks if we finish last
Also, if Kings don't get the #1 pick and the #2 team does, all of their ping pong balls are removed (or invalid). So the odds go way up for getting the #2 or #3 pick. Those percentages are based on all of the pp balls.
At least that sounds right, I could be wrong.
That's correct. The percentages listed above do take that into account. (That is, they take into account the chances that the #2 seed got the first pick, that the #3 seed got the first pick, etc.)
And in another way, too. The worst case scenario - a #4 pick - would still be the highest we'd gotten in 20 years. How could that be a bad thing?
HighTopKicks
Bench
The odds are only valid prior to the 1st pick being made, then the odds change depending on which team actually wins the 1st pick. So, if a non-worst 3 team wins the #1 pick, the odds of a worst 3 team winning the #2 pick increases.
But, as good as the 65% chance of the worst team winning one of the first 3 picks looks, history has not been that favorable. Of the 15 drafts using the current system of lottery, the worst team has only won one of the first 3 picks 7 times, so 8 times they ended up 4th include the last 4yrs. So, the actual top 3 winning percentage is 46% not 65%. The worst team only one twice in 15yrs, for a winning percentage of 13.3% or about half of the perdicted 25%. Of course, the sampling of 15 drafts is too small, so the discrepencies are understandable, and the predicted percentages are still valid.
Other trivia: the 3 worst teams got the top 3 picks only once. The 3 worst teams all missed getting a top 3 pick only once. 14 out of 15 draft, one of the worst 3 teams missed getting a top 3 pick. The 3rd worst record has won the #1 pick 4 times, and the 5th worst record has won it 3 times, and the 1st & 6th worst have won it twice. And lastly, 66% of the time 2 of the three worst teams win a top 3 pick.
It would be safe to say that the lottery has so far run opposite of the perdicted odds.
Link:http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-lottery-history/
Vlade4GM
All-Star
The lottery history is irrelevant, it's based on factual mathematical probabilities. You can have a sample of 100 years and it would still wouldn't change what the actual probabilities are.
Quoted for re-emphasis.
Also note that the values listed on the Wikipedia page are correct, adjusted for all possible contingencies. Yes, the odds update after the #1 and #2 picks are selected, but since we don't get to see that information intermediately, it's irrelevant. The odds as listed describe the probabilities of the final outcomes as they stand before the drawing begins, which is all we need to know.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
You mean if we finish last? If we finsh last, we can pick no lower than 4th.
If we move up over a couple of teams, it could be lower. You can never pick more than 3 spots below your finish. So if you finish #3, you could drop as low as #6, if you finish #4 you could drop as low as #7 etc.
As an aside, the Clippers are in hard tank mode now. They've shut down or suspecded everyone. We should show up in L.A. this weekend, dress nomore than 8 in response and play Diogu, Simmons, Greene, Solomon and Booth the full 48.
Hopefully Martin will be shut down by then too. Clippers loss to a depleted Wolves team tonight at home and the Kings roster seems a little better than the wolves roster minus Martin/Jefferson. I'm getting a little nervous when we have to play the Clippers.
nebs
Starter
OK great that's what I thought, thanks. I was discussing this with someone today and I wasn't 100% positive on that answer.
I'm sticking by this as my prediction for Friday morning:
On Friday, the Kings-Clippers game is the only one which will impact the rankings, Washington visits Toronto, but can be expected to lin. All other teams have been eliminated from competition for last place.*
If we wose to the tanking Clips on Friday, it needs to be our last woss of the year.
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*Yeah, OKC is still 1 game away from mathematical elimination. But, realistically speaking, they got no chance.
On Friday, the Kings-Clippers game is the only one which will impact the rankings, Washington visits Toronto, but can be expected to lin. All other teams have been eliminated from competition for last place.*
If we wose to the tanking Clips on Friday, it needs to be our last woss of the year.
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*Yeah, OKC is still 1 game away from mathematical elimination. But, realistically speaking, they got no chance.
Hm doesn't Wizards play the Cavaliers tomorrow? You can book it that they will lose that one too along with the Raptors game.
Why does everyone think that the Wizards losing to the Raptors is a foregone conclusion??
They recently "rested" Arenas during a road game. If they continue to do that, Washington will continue to suck on the road. But I agree that they could wose versus Toronto at home, I consider that one to be about 50-50 odds. But if they wose it, it will probably be their only woss in what's left of the season, which is rather inconsiderate of them.
SacKings7
Starter
Pretty sure Arenas said he'd only play in home games
cigaM Numbers:
Oklahoma City: 1 (@Den, Cha, @Mil, @Por, @LAC)
Washington: 4 (@Cle, @Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 4 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: Hou, @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings "Worst" Possible Pre-Lottery Finish: 4th
Oklahoma City: 1 (@Den, Cha, @Mil, @Por, @LAC)
Washington: 4 (@Cle, @Tor, Tor, @Bos)
LA Clippers: 4 (Sac, Por, @Utah, OKC)
Kings Games Remaining: Hou, @LAC, SA, @Den, @Min
Games in red are tomorrow.
Kings "Worst" Possible Pre-Lottery Finish: 4th
ParniValjak
All-Star
Which happens to be 75% chance that we don't get the #1 pick. Now I don't know about you but to me those aren't particularly good odds.
Vlade4GM
All-Star
They're still better odds than any other team has.
ParniValjak
All-Star
True but our chances are still greater that we DON'T end up with the number 1 pick than they are that we do end up with the #1 pick.
Really we are only 1 in 4 chance of ending up with #1 pick. Either way, those are not great odds.
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LWP777
Guest
This is the point I was trying to make in my earlier posts. We actually have a better chance of getting 3 or 4 then we do 1 or 2 (if we end up with the worst record). Yes, I realize that's better than any other team, but it's still depressing to think we could suck this bad this season and end up with #4.
SacKings7
Starter
Again, you've got the wrong mindset. Going on a team-by-team basis, we'd have the best odds of getting the #1, and that's all we should really be hoping for at this point. Or at least the top 2
