My thoughts:
Top Tier – the real contenders
1) OKC
2) Denver
3) Houston
Second Tier- the threats to win a round or two
4) Minnesota
5) Lakers
Fighting for the 6 seed
6) Clippers
7) Warriors (though a lot of offseason left for them)
Play-in or worse teams – I think the spread of these teams is probably 5-6 games, and there is a lot of potential flux – like everyone in this tier is winning between 38 and 44 games, and I could see anyone in this group being 8th or 13th depending on how thing break.
8) Portland – finished the season strong and got better
9) San Antonio – provided Wemby plays 70 plus games. If not, they are in the 12 range
10) Kings – still a lot of talent, and a training camp to gel
11) Dallas- I don’t get the attraction. Yes, Flagg will be good, but is he turning this team around as a rookie? No Kyrie for awhile, Klay and AD a year older and AD always hurt. Russell? I am just not sold on this team. Maybe when Flagg is in his second or third year.
12) Phoenix – maybe they surprise with Booker taking back over as the clear lead dog, but the talent and especially fits seem poor.
13) Memphis – think they will really miss Bane, and have never been convinced in Morant
Teams I think are worse than the Kings
14) New Orleans
Teams that are much worse than the Kings
15) Utah