Worst case scenario is Drummond.... Right ?

[hrdboild]

Is that true though? I never saw Barnes play in high shcool, but my impression was that the scouting miss on him was exactly the opposite of the Drummond mystery. i..e That Barnes in fact excels at exactly the things the scouts thought he would excel in coming out of high school, its jsut suddenly on a bigger stage everybody realized that those thigns alone aren't enough.

Meanwhiel with Drummond he DIDN'T flash the same skill spackage at all in college. It would be as if Barnes came to college and just became a spot 3pt shooter from the corner, but never came off screens for midrange jumpers.

But like I say, I never watched Barnes in high school, so maybe I could be worng on this. Maybe he was more then and it went away somewhere along the line.

Certainly that's what I saw. At UNC he looked to me like a player who was afraid to make mistakes. A lot of people are saying he lacks the lateral quickness or the ballhandling ability to get by defenders but driving to the basket was a big part of his game in high school. The defenders got bigger, stronger, and quicker in college buts that's an adjustment every player has to go through. Barnes could stand to improve his ballhandling but he wasn't excessively turnover prone driving to the basket. What he was, was over-tentative. Whereas a guy like Kidd-Gilchrist would make one or two sharp moves and then cut to the basket, Barnes often looked like he couldn't make up his mind which way he wanted to go and when the second defender came he was forced to pass it out. Because he's so good at creating space for his jumpshot, he can get it off pretty much whenever he wants to and he started to rely on it too much instead of reading the defense.

You asked if his skillset was more limited than scouts realized out of high school, but let me ask you this: if a guy has three point range, repeatable catch-and-shoot form, step-back and fade-away midrange jumpers, the ability to get by defenders and finish above the rim, and a nose for offensive rebounds -- what is he lacking offensively? His handle isn't great, I'll give you that, but he should have straight up dominated guys at the college level with his skillset. He did have the occasional big game like the 40 he dropped on Clemson in the tournament as a freshman (and if he came out after his tournament last year he would have gone first or second in the draft) but for most of his two seasons at UNC he seemed content to defer to his teammates.

Here's an example of what I mean. It's hard to find complete game footage on YouTube and highlight videos take everything out of context, but purely looking at athleticism here compare this video:

With this one:

It's almost like you're looking at a different player. The guy in the first video is skilled but not explosive. The guy in the second video is quicker to the basket, quicker getting off the ground, and he can play above the rim. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. He was the best player on a team that went undefeated two years in a row. He dominated his peers in all three 2010 high school All-Star games. By high school resume alone he's got the pedigree of a first overall pick. Which gets back to the question I don't have an answer for -- what happened?

I've read interviews with scouts saying that they misjudged Barnes' potential but they either have a short memory or they're full of it. He improved on his skillset at UNC but that athleticism was nowhere to be found. And even at the college level, standout athleticism in basketball is often what separates the superstars from everybody else. It's easy to just write guys off like Drummond and Barnes as wasted potential. They wouldn't be the first can't-miss prospects to flame out badly. But as Rondo showed the other night in the playoffs, some prospects are just on a longer development curve than others. If either of these guys has a chance at becoming who they were projected to be as high school seniors, you'd be a fool to pass up on that level of talent wouldn't you?

 

[Kingster]

Having huge concerns over Drummonds ability is valid but I would like to ask guys who are 100% sure Drummond is a bust what was your opinion of Favors?

I wanted Favors over Cousins. And I don't think there are many, including me, who think Drummond is a 100% bust. I just think based on everything I've heard and read, he's at best a 50-50 proposition. For a #5 pick that is way to high of a bust potential.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

It's almost like you're looking at a different player. The guy in the first video is skilled but not explosive. The guy in the second video is quicker to the basket, quicker getting off the ground, and he can play above the rim. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. He was the best player on a team that went undefeated two years in a row. He dominated his peers in all three 2010 high school All-Star games. By high school resume alone he's got the pedigree of a first overall pick. Which gets back to the question I don't have an answer for -- what happened?

You're right. Did he get hurt? Does Roy Williams make you run laps for every dunk and take to the basket? It's weird.

 

[hrdboild]

You're right. Did he get hurt? Does Roy Williams make you run laps for every dunk and take to the basket? It's weird.

I've been trying to come up with explanations for the disparity but I'm really at a loss. Which is why I'm curious to see what comes out in the combine tests and measurements, team workouts, and interviews. If I get a good feeling that he's going to be closer to his high school level athletically, I'd take him at #5 no contest regardless of who else is on the board.

But the bigger point for me is something I've been trying to figure out ever since I started following draft prospects -- If we pretend that none of these guys went to college and look only at their projections coming out of high school, I'd have Barnes first, then Drummond, then Kidd-Gilchrist, then Anthony Davis. To what extent should one or two years in college influence our impressions of these players? The prevailing opinion seems to be that elite players should adjust quickly to tougher competition. That's the line of thinking that has Davis and MKG at the top of the draft. But what about the guys like Derrick Williams, Russell Westbrook, and Evan Turner who weren't highly regarded as high school prospects and blossomed in their third or fourth year out? Thomas Robinson, for instance, was the 10th ranked PF in his class according to Rivals.com (link) and he's since passed all of those guys except for Cousins -- but it took him three years to do it.

Neither Barnes nor Drummond fit into that category, but they did struggle in their first years in college for whatever reason. The draft pundits will throw all sorts of college statistics at you but in the end it always comes down to the eyeball test for me. If I were a GM, I'd need to see something from Barnes or Drummond in workouts or interviews that shows me they're ready to take the next step. Same thing with Perry Jones.

 

[Uncia03]

Having huge concerns over Drummonds ability is valid but I would like to ask guys who are 100% sure Drummond is a bust what was your opinion of Favors?

I don't think 100% that Drummond will be a bust. All I can say is that when I first started watching UCONN I was excited because I really liked Jeremy Lamb last year and then Drummond was added to the team as a defensive/athletic beast to help them out.
Game after game I was disappointed in Drummond's ability to impact the game and it got to the point that the more I watched the less I liked him. And this is knowing that in theory he'd be a perfect fit next to Cousins.

If we don't package the 5th pick I have him at #5, but it's an extremely tentative selection because he didn't prove anything to me in college.

To answer your question: I watched Favors play quite a bit at G-Tech. I liked him and felt that Gani Lawal being next to him sort of hid some of his talents as well as Shumpert and the rest of the guards basically ignoring him. So I didn't walk away overly impressed, but I saw the potential there and realized there were reasons why he wasn't as dominant as he could be.

To me that was a 4 player draft with Wall/Turner the best wings and Cousins/Favors the best bigs. I would have been happy with any of those 4 and was overwrought with anguish when we ended up with the 5th pick.

If we had ended up with Favors at #5 I would have been happy, though nowhere near as happy as us actually getting Cousins, because I loved his play at Kentucky.

 

[Spike]

How much of this has to do with the age requirement in the NBA? If I wasn't interested in school, knowing that I had the tools to succeed in the NBA, I might coast then bolt after I've year too. Not saying it's right, but I could see it.

 

[roasthawg]

I'm on board with Drummond at this point. I think if the choice is him or Robinson you gotta take Drummond based on fit. Draft Express has best case for these guys as Ibaka and Hortford. No question we take Ibaka out of those two players.

I would definitely rather ride it out with Whiteside and trade the pick for Gay whoever. I think Gay is the best move if that's a possibility.

 

[kingsfan101]

Late to the party, and haven't read all the posts. Shall do so, but wanted to point out one thing that might not have been mentioned so far. At 18, Drummond is one of the youngest players in the draft. He can grow physically, but much more importantly, he shall mature emotionally.

Does he have bust potential. From what I've read, yes. But the promise is too great. If we have a choice between him, Barnes and Robinson, it shall be a good problem to have.

 

[kingsfan101]

These tall athletic big man always get picked early as teams take a punt on their size and potential...Oden, Thabeet, Sene, Bynum (big reach at the time), Darko, etc...the history is full of teams taking a punt on these guys with a pick earlier than they should be.

Yes, but the reverse is also true, albeit with a lower frequency. Teams pass on them due to some red flags, and then repent later.

DC fell to us (5 is a high pick, but on talent alone, he would have gone 1/2), Hibbert fell to Indiana, D Jordan fell to 2nd round, Ibaka went in the 20s, Brad Miller went undrafted, and Ben (DPOY) Wallace went in second round (or was he undrafted too)?

Drummond may turn out to be Thabeet/Kwame/Darko, etc. But what if he is Ibaka or better?

 

[Dr. Spaceman]

I feel the use of the Cousins scenario as justification that someone will drop (MKG being most out there of all) isn't as relevant to this year's circumstances as it's been made out to be. Cousins was portrayed by the media as being an enigmatic, potentially cancerous headcase -- red flags were genuinely raised (the red flags themselves being completely legitimate? I'd say no, with a nod to some of the incidents in the past couple of years). Every player in this year's top 4 has genuinely great talent to offer, with almost none of the character questions to consider.

I think the Bobcats would be foolish and clearly lacking in foresight should they pass on MKG simply because he can't shoot well at this moment in time. Knowing how competitive and dedicated MKG has been said to be, I fear for the league should he be taken under Jordan's tutelage. He's no Kwame Brown invertebrate.

Robinson would be a phenomenal running mate for the equally athletic J. Wall -- you pair them alongside Jan Vesely and you have the makings of a ridiculously athletic core going forward.

Beal would complement Irving tremendously, and with so many needs for this team, you can't be picky about fulfilling one need over the other. They have to take BPA.

Which leaves the Kings, who I see leaning towards the safe pick here -- Barnes. Unless Drummond becomes a workout and interview superstar over the next couple of weeks. Barnes is a bit of a yawn pick for me, but I wouldn't be mad about it either. And he's a big name for the requisite Maloof-attempt-at-prosports-profit marketing scheme.. As tame as the pick would be, it makes a ton of sense in my mind.

 

[ParniValjak]

I feel the use of the Cousins scenario as justification that someone will drop (MKG being most out there of all) isn't as relevant to this year's circumstances as it's been made out to be. Cousins was portrayed by the media as being an enigmatic, potentially cancerous headcase -- red flags were genuinely raised (the red flags themselves being completely legitimate? I'd say no, with a nod to some of the incidents in the past couple of years). Every player in this year's top 4 has genuinely great talent to offer, with almost none of the character questions to consider.

I think the Bobcats would be foolish and clearly lacking in foresight should they pass on MKG simply because he can't shoot well at this moment in time. Knowing how competitive and dedicated MKG has been said to be, I fear for the league should he be taken under Jordan's tutelage. He's no Kwame Brown invertebrate.

Robinson would be a phenomenal running mate for the equally athletic J. Wall -- you pair them alongside Jan Vesely and you have the makings of a ridiculously athletic core going forward.

Beal would complement Irving tremendously, and with so many needs for this team, you can't be picky about fulfilling one need over the other. They have to take BPA.

Which leaves the Kings, who I see leaning towards the safe pick here -- Barnes. Unless Drummond becomes a workout and interview superstar over the next couple of weeks. Barnes is a bit of a yawn pick for me, but I wouldn't be mad about it either. And he's a big name for the requisite Maloof-attempt-at-prosports-profit marketing scheme.. As tame as the pick would be, it makes a ton of sense in my mind.

And if Cavs take Barnes which is a legitimate possibility.

Beal is a scorer, but so is Irving. Having two 20 ppg players in your backcourt is not going to work. Especially since you are getting undersized backcourt and a coach who likes 2 way players. I honestly think that if Cavs want scoring, Barnes makes most sense for them. A SF that can score off Irving and is a good defensive prospect.

 

[rainmaker]

And if Cavs take Barnes which is a legitimate possibility.

Beal is a scorer, but so is Irving. Having two 20 ppg players in your backcourt is not going to work. Especially since you are getting undersized backcourt and a coach who likes 2 way players. I honestly think that if Cavs want scoring, Barnes makes most sense for them. A SF that can score off Irving and is a good defensive prospect.

Not only was Cle high on Barnes last year, but he and Irving are best friends. Highly doubt he gets past Cle, which is good for us as I want no part of him.

 

[upinsmoke]

Not only was Cle high on Barnes last year, but he and Irving are best friends. Highly doubt he gets past Cle, which is good for us as I want no part of him.

So would you roll the dice on Drummond or grab Beal? IMO if were faced with this scenario we should consider using the draft pick to get rid of Salmons contract and go hard after Batum.

 

[Dime Dropper]

If you are left with a choice of Beal of Drummond, you take Drummond and don't look back. It's a chance worth taking given our situation. Nor do you trade the pick to get rid of Salmons contract. We can always amnesty him, although that's unlikely given the owner's lack of money.

 

[roasthawg]

I would probably say that MKG or Drummonds are BEST case. Worst case is Beal, Robinson, or Barnes... I'm okay with that too. I think most likely might be Robinson at this point.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Apparently Drummond posted a 38 inch vertical today, and... here's the funny part, was disappointed with it!! He says he's posted 40+ before. If true, 38 is absolutely insane for someone who is 6'10'' and 278 with 7% bodyfat. Just an elite athlete. I'd be inclined to take him over anyone bar MKG if it turns out true. You can't turn down that upside at 5.

I know too much is made out of measurements and physical attributes, but Drummond is on Howard's level athletically. He's also shown he can be a very good defender, and with his athleticism, could be perfect next to Cousins.

 

[gunks]

Drummond is going top 3, character/drive issues be damned.

Physically he is on another level as a C prospect, dude is like a bigger Dwight Howard, someone is going to take a risk on him.

 

[Hallama]

He's one of the youngest players in this draft too. Crazy. What a basketball specimen. All indications are Kings are not leaning towards taking a risky player like him this year, but man, you've got to consider him. You just have to.

 

[Glenn]

Late to the party, and haven't read all the posts. Shall do so, but wanted to point out one thing that might not have been mentioned so far. At 18, Drummond is one of the youngest players in the draft. He can grow physically, but much more importantly, he shall mature emotionally.

Does he have bust potential. From what I've read, yes. But the promise is too great. If we have a choice between him, Barnes and Robinson, it shall be a good problem to have.

Let's not get confused by the term "emotional immaturity" and "lack of desire." Drummond has no motor, no drive. That has nothing to do with emotional maturity. Cousins is immature. That can be developed. The drive or motor is there or isn't. I have seen many 15 year old girls with more drive and knowledge of the game than Drummond. Signing Drummond probably would be a huge waste especially when there are other players reasonable similar to his wishfully projected skill level who could be picked instead.

I would take Davis, MKG, Robinson, Barnes definitely before Drummond and it is likely that Beal will be picked before #5 and leave us the option of Drummond, MKG, Robinson, or Barnes. If we are lucky, someone will pick Drummond before he falls to #5.

I am counting on teams going for offense in the rearly picks as offense sells. As we need no offense, it leaves us in a good position. I want defensive guys with huge motors. Hint! Hint!

 

[Glenn]

If you are left with a choice of Beal of Drummond, you take Drummond and don't look back. It's a chance worth taking given our situation. Nor do you trade the pick to get rid of Salmons contract. We can always amnesty him, although that's unlikely given the owner's lack of money.

I will convert to Catholicism if we are faced with this choice as I see no need whatsoever for Beal and wouldn't draft Drummond on a dare. BTW, I don't think our condition is a manpower condition but a mismatch of decent parts situation along with a coach who sucks.

 

[Bricklayer]

Drummond is going top 3, character/drive issues be damned.

Physically he is on another level as a C prospect, dude is like a bigger Dwight Howard, someone is going to take a risk on him.

Is somebody 6'11" 278lbs with 7% body fat and a 38" vert really a risk?

When Dwight came through as an 18 year old he measured out at 6'10" 240lbs with a 35.5" vert.

 

[The_Jamal]

Is somebody 6'11" 278lbs with 7% body fat and a 38" vert really a risk?

When Dwight came through as an 18 year old he measured out at 6'10" 240lbs with a 35.5" vert.

That whole having basketball talent and no motor is slightly an issue I think

 

[Tetsujin]

Is somebody 6'11" 278lbs with 7% body fat and a 38" vert really a risk?

When Dwight came through as an 18 year old he measured out at 6'10" 240lbs with a 35.5" vert.

We could honestly just have Drummond stand under our basket all game (rules be damned) and be a considerably better defensive team.

In regards to his "drive issues," pairing him up with a fiery guy like Demarcus may prove to be incentive enough to at least make him try. Unlock even just 75% of this guy's potential and you have a beast on your hands.

 

[gunks]

To all the Drummond jockers:

Look how well we've developed prospects over the past few years. Drummond is a very young player, with all kinds of question marks. I think his bust potential goes through the roof if he lands with us.

Now if we were to land Sloan and demote Smart to assistant coach prior to the draft, I'd reconsider rolling the dice.

 

[Tetsujin]

To all the Drummond jockers:

Look how well we've developed prospects over the past few years. Drummond is a very young player, with all kinds of question marks. I think his bust potential goes through the roof if he lands with us.

Now if we were to land Sloan and demote Smart to assistant coach prior to the draft, I'd reconsider rolling the dice.

We don't have a sterling development record for sure but with Clifford Ray on staff, we've seen improvement from Hassan, JT, and Cuz. Now if we took a project at SF or PG then I'd be concerned.

 

[hrdboild]

The rumor I'm hearing is that Harrison Barnes had the highest vertical leap of all the prospects at the combine. I guess we can say goodbye to our chances of drafting him at 5. If that's true he's practically a lock to go to Cleveland, maybe even to Charlotte at #2.

 

[Dime Dropper]

The rumor I'm hearing is that Harrison Barnes had the highest vertical leap of all the prospects at the combine. I guess we can say goodbye to our chances of drafting him at 5. If that's true he's practically a lock to go to Cleveland, maybe even to Charlotte at #2.

This is something that I simply won't believe until I see it. Even if he somehow has the highest vertical (and I don't believe he has), he's still not my number one choice, as he can't seem to utilise it in in-game situations. I do think he will be a good player, however.

 

[ElRey]

Is somebody 6'11" 278lbs with 7% body fat and a 38" vert really a risk?

When Dwight came through as an 18 year old he measured out at 6'10" 240lbs with a 35.5" vert.

a 38" vertical? are you serious?! Add that to his 7'6.6 wingspan (according the draft express, one of the top 20 measurements of all time), he has all the POTENTIAL in the world. Problem is guys with potential don't develop on our team.

 

[SacTownKid]

Is somebody 6'11" 278lbs with 7% body fat and a 38" vert really a risk?

When Dwight came through as an 18 year old he measured out at 6'10" 240lbs with a 35.5" vert.

I think it is, that's just too heavy for a player next to Cousins. Losing 20 pounds to get quicker just isn't going to happen, he must have big bones or something because he's not even very developed physically. I can just see him wearing down considering when he comes to full adulthood he'll probably be close to or over 300 pounds. Better hope for some strong knees considering he's pretty much an athlete and not a whole lot more. Shaq and Wilt were a freaks of nature to last as long as they did, but neither relied on athleticism like Drummond will have to. Both were also longer and taller, and played center. Not super thrilled about Drummonds results unless this team needed a center but even then you have to worry about having a Greg Oden sequel.

 

[Hallama]

Drummond is, by far, the most impressive athlete at the combine IMO. More worried about overall ball IQ with him. His size/length + athletic ability is rare.