Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
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Good lord man. No. Luka and Ben Simmons are two of the greatest (*big*) playmakers of all-time. He doesn't have near the handle/court vision to ever get close to that. You're basically saying a Paolo ceiling can have him running PG full-time like Luka and Ben do.
He's an excellent prospect, but there has to be some realism with his projection here.
He's an excellent prospect, but there has to be some realism with his projection here.
I don't see him as a tweener. He looks like a power forward to me, through and through. I think it's wishful thinking by some to think that he's going to be a 3 in the NBA. Not quite as wishful as thinking Bagley would be a 3 but wishful thinking nonetheless.
He has shown that he can drive and kick at times but I don't see Luka or Tatum in him either. There are only a few players in the world that are anywhere near his size that can take over games by driving and kicking so I wouldn't expect it to be something he can do on a regular basis in the NBA. Luka showed that he could do it consistently in Europe but Banchero just shows flashes of it once in a while.
Randle is the best comp I've heard so far. I don't think he'll exactly have Randle's game but if he gets near his ceiling, he should have similar numbers and impact. 20, 8 and 5 wouldn't surprise me in 3 years.
I think the biggest issue is fit next to Sabonis. The only player that would really fit with Sabonis IMO would be Holmgren if he completely panned out as a rim protector and floor spacer. Perimeter defense would suffer but he would cover up Sabonis' interior defensive shortcomings. I think our 4 and 5 defense would be pretty weak with Sabonis + Banchero, Smith or Murray. Winning games could still happen if our draft pick turns out to be a good scorer but building around Sabonis at the 5 is a difficult situation.
He has shown that he can drive and kick at times but I don't see Luka or Tatum in him either. There are only a few players in the world that are anywhere near his size that can take over games by driving and kicking so I wouldn't expect it to be something he can do on a regular basis in the NBA. Luka showed that he could do it consistently in Europe but Banchero just shows flashes of it once in a while.
Randle is the best comp I've heard so far. I don't think he'll exactly have Randle's game but if he gets near his ceiling, he should have similar numbers and impact. 20, 8 and 5 wouldn't surprise me in 3 years.
I think the biggest issue is fit next to Sabonis. The only player that would really fit with Sabonis IMO would be Holmgren if he completely panned out as a rim protector and floor spacer. Perimeter defense would suffer but he would cover up Sabonis' interior defensive shortcomings. I think our 4 and 5 defense would be pretty weak with Sabonis + Banchero, Smith or Murray. Winning games could still happen if our draft pick turns out to be a good scorer but building around Sabonis at the 5 is a difficult situation.
Saw the name Dyson Daniels mentioned on another board and I was pretty impressed with what I saw.
Mainly that the guy looks like he knows how to play basketball.
3pt % is not great, but the form isn't bad, I'm sure it could be corrected quite easily. I was actually surprised to see is as low as it was (25%).
I was very intrigued by his playmaking ability.
And I guess he's solid on defense ? (although I wasn't able to note much from the vids).
He’s funky. Kinda reminds me of Jason Preston, who went 33rd to the Clips. Think he got injured early so didn’t really make any noise. See here:
Going back to Daniels, I like the vision and facilitation. Doesn’t look like an Uber athlete, but looks like he’ll stick with the size and the feel. My biggest concern is his finishing on his left hand and how hard he can drive and create/score going left. From the film, you can tell he actively avoids scoring with his left even though that’s the shot he should be taking and he doesn’t quite drive as hard going left. Definitely in that Murray, Davis, Griffen category of #5 to #60.
Going back to Daniels, I like the vision and facilitation. Doesn’t look like an Uber athlete, but looks like he’ll stick with the size and the feel. My biggest concern is his finishing on his left hand and how hard he can drive and create/score going left. From the film, you can tell he actively avoids scoring with his left even though that’s the shot he should be taking and he doesn’t quite drive as hard going left. Definitely in that Murray, Davis, Griffen category of #5 to #60.
There's not enough love for AJ Griffin on this board. He'd be a perfect fit next to Fox and Sabonis.
He's only 18-years-old. 6'6 222lb SF with a 7'0 wingspan. He's been one of the best shooters in the country this past year. At 4.1 attempts a game, he's made them at 45.8%. He can get his shot off in a lot of different ways. You'll see him catch and shoot, jab step 3, step-back 3, etc. He's shown a willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive. Not the most quick or explosive guy, but knows how to attack the right angles.
He's very overshadowed on a talented Duke team. I think he's got a ton of untapped potential and on-ball scoring ability that he just hasn't had a chance to fully display yet. When you watch the games, he just finds ways to score without completely disrupting an offense.
One of the youngest prospects in this class who's the son of a former NBA player, Adrian Griffin who's currently a coach with the Toronto Raptors.
He's only 18-years-old. 6'6 222lb SF with a 7'0 wingspan. He's been one of the best shooters in the country this past year. At 4.1 attempts a game, he's made them at 45.8%. He can get his shot off in a lot of different ways. You'll see him catch and shoot, jab step 3, step-back 3, etc. He's shown a willingness to put the ball on the floor and drive. Not the most quick or explosive guy, but knows how to attack the right angles.
He's very overshadowed on a talented Duke team. I think he's got a ton of untapped potential and on-ball scoring ability that he just hasn't had a chance to fully display yet. When you watch the games, he just finds ways to score without completely disrupting an offense.
One of the youngest prospects in this class who's the son of a former NBA player, Adrian Griffin who's currently a coach with the Toronto Raptors.
Wow, a lot of nonsense on this forum, but some good stuff as well. I haven't been around much because I moved to a different house, and it's kept me very busy. The spare time I do have I spend watching film of the games I recorded, of which there are many. I'm guessing around 100. Some of which I'll delete. I mean, there's no reason for me to watch the 15 or so games of Mich St., nor Memphis games... At some point, you know who a player is. So frist, I like Banchero, but I question his fit next to Fox and Sabonis.
At present he's not a good 3 pt shooter and he does most of his scoring at the basket. His strength is from the mid-range in. That's also Sabonis territory. Put both on the floor together and you might make it extremely difficult for Fox to get to the basket. I realize that he shot the 3 ball fairly well in the tournament, but a couple of games does not a season make.. On the other hand, I think either Holmgren or Smith would be good fits next to Fox and Sabonis. Both are capable 3 pt shooters, especially Smith, who I took a deep dive on in the stat world. It was somewhat educational.
On the season Smith averaged 16.9 ppg. He averaged 42.0% from three on 5.5 attempts a game. He shot 79.9% from the free throw line and he averaged 7.4 rebounds and 1 block a game. I believe both his rebounds and blocks would go up if he played closer to the basket, but Auburn had him roaming the perimeter, mainly because he was such a good shooter, and also because they had a terrific shot blocking and rebounding center in Walker Kessler, who averaged 8.1 rebounds and a terrific 4.6 blocks a game.
Now if you watched more than one game of Auburn's, and by more than one, I mean at least 5 or 6 games, then none of what I'm about to write will surprise you. 68% of Smiths shots in the half court offense are jumpshots, and he converts 41.3% of his jumpshots. 82% of his jumpshots are contested, and he converts 41.3% of his jumpshots with a hand in his face. However, he converts 61% of his uncontested jumpshots. Unfortunately, only 17% of his jumpshots are uncontested. That certainly won't be the case in the NBA where he won't be the number one, or number two option. He's not as good off the dribble where he shot 39%. But remember, those were mostly contested shots. Only 10% of his shots came from postups, where he shot 44%, and that includes his 10 to 12 ft turn around jumpshot.
In his last game he was doubled and tripled, something Banchero didn't have to contend with because he was surrounded by very talented players who had to be guarded. Smith was surrounded by a guard lineup that was horrible, and which never got him the ball when he was in good position, if they got him the ball at all. If Smith had been on a team with a PG like Haliburton, he would have scored 30 pt's a game. Smith is one of the best shooters in this draft. He's an excellent athlete and a good defender. His defensive technic needs some work, but it's quite fixable.
I could make a similar case for Holmgren who is a natural shot blocker and is also a very good 3pt shooter. Yes, he's on the thin side but he will get stronger. His overall skill set is outstanding. Plus he plays with an edge despite his slight frame. Had the refs not called two questionable fouls on him which fouled him out of the game, Gonzaga would have won that game. The difference he made off and on the floor was dramatic. Gonazga was like an entirely different team when he was on the floor. The so called big matchup between him and Duren didn't turn out to be that big, with Holmgren holding Duren to 27.3% shooting overall. Duren averaged 59.7% overall for the season
All of this is moot for the Kings unless the basketball God's smile upon them in the lottery. It's more likely that they'll be picking from the 7th position, where I still like our chances of getting Keegan Murray, who I think is going to be a very good NBA player. Murray, along with Smith, and Ivey, suffered the fate of being the number one focus of the other teams defense. Ivey had one of the worse games of his career. They made it almost impossible for him to get to the basket, and they doubled him every time he touched the ball. Murray suffered the same fate. And somehow he still managed to score 21 pt's in a game where he had zero help.
Like Smith, Murray won't be the number one option or the number two option on offense. On the Kings he'd probably be the fourth option, where it's unlikely he'll be double teamed. He's a very good shooter, and a good defender. Yes there were a couple of games where his defense suffered, but bear in mind, in the conference tournament, he ended up playing 4 games in 4 days, and it was obvious that he wasn't used to that and that his legs were tired. I watched him play in at least15 games this year not counting tournament games, and his defense was just fine.
Other players that I like if for some reason Murray is gone, in no particular order are: Benedict Mathurin, Ochai Agbaji, Jeremy Sochan, A.J. Griffin, Tari Eason, and last but not least, Malaki Branham. Branham has really come on strong toward the end of the season, and like some of the others, he's still only 18 years old. I'm particularly biased when it comes to Sochan. I really, really like him, and wouldn't be a bit disappointed if the Kings took him. He would be considered to be a bit of a reach, but most mocks now have him in the lottery. He's a 6'9", 230 pound SF/PF, who has terrific BBIQ. His outside shot needs a little work, but he has good forum.
Of course with Agbaji your getting a plug and play player who is ready for the NBA. Smart player who can shoot the three, and defend. We probably don't need another guard, but Agbaji is a hell of a player. Griffin is a terrific shooter, and Mathurin is the entire package. A three level scorer and a very good defender. Just so you know, I don't put a lot of value on tournament play one way or the other. The intensity goes up about 3 or 4 notches, and players face defense's that they've never faced before. I'm certainly not going to change my mind about player because of one game after I've watched him play in 20 games previously. I think a player can help himself, but probably not hurt himself, unless he's just downright terrible.
Lastly, I'm pulling for Kansas in this final. I think Kansas can win this game as long as they remember that Agbaji and Braun are the two best players on their team. Just get them the ball! I like McCormack, but he's very hit and miss from game to game. But if he gets hot, then feed the beast. The matchup to watch is going to be between Caleb Love and Agbaji. No player has helped himself more in this tournament than Love. He's looked like the player everyone thought he would be coming out of high school. The sentimental favorite has to be Brady Manek, who spent his freshman year playing along side Trey Young at Oklahoma. He looks entirely different today than he did then.
At present he's not a good 3 pt shooter and he does most of his scoring at the basket. His strength is from the mid-range in. That's also Sabonis territory. Put both on the floor together and you might make it extremely difficult for Fox to get to the basket. I realize that he shot the 3 ball fairly well in the tournament, but a couple of games does not a season make.. On the other hand, I think either Holmgren or Smith would be good fits next to Fox and Sabonis. Both are capable 3 pt shooters, especially Smith, who I took a deep dive on in the stat world. It was somewhat educational.
On the season Smith averaged 16.9 ppg. He averaged 42.0% from three on 5.5 attempts a game. He shot 79.9% from the free throw line and he averaged 7.4 rebounds and 1 block a game. I believe both his rebounds and blocks would go up if he played closer to the basket, but Auburn had him roaming the perimeter, mainly because he was such a good shooter, and also because they had a terrific shot blocking and rebounding center in Walker Kessler, who averaged 8.1 rebounds and a terrific 4.6 blocks a game.
Now if you watched more than one game of Auburn's, and by more than one, I mean at least 5 or 6 games, then none of what I'm about to write will surprise you. 68% of Smiths shots in the half court offense are jumpshots, and he converts 41.3% of his jumpshots. 82% of his jumpshots are contested, and he converts 41.3% of his jumpshots with a hand in his face. However, he converts 61% of his uncontested jumpshots. Unfortunately, only 17% of his jumpshots are uncontested. That certainly won't be the case in the NBA where he won't be the number one, or number two option. He's not as good off the dribble where he shot 39%. But remember, those were mostly contested shots. Only 10% of his shots came from postups, where he shot 44%, and that includes his 10 to 12 ft turn around jumpshot.
In his last game he was doubled and tripled, something Banchero didn't have to contend with because he was surrounded by very talented players who had to be guarded. Smith was surrounded by a guard lineup that was horrible, and which never got him the ball when he was in good position, if they got him the ball at all. If Smith had been on a team with a PG like Haliburton, he would have scored 30 pt's a game. Smith is one of the best shooters in this draft. He's an excellent athlete and a good defender. His defensive technic needs some work, but it's quite fixable.
I could make a similar case for Holmgren who is a natural shot blocker and is also a very good 3pt shooter. Yes, he's on the thin side but he will get stronger. His overall skill set is outstanding. Plus he plays with an edge despite his slight frame. Had the refs not called two questionable fouls on him which fouled him out of the game, Gonzaga would have won that game. The difference he made off and on the floor was dramatic. Gonazga was like an entirely different team when he was on the floor. The so called big matchup between him and Duren didn't turn out to be that big, with Holmgren holding Duren to 27.3% shooting overall. Duren averaged 59.7% overall for the season
All of this is moot for the Kings unless the basketball God's smile upon them in the lottery. It's more likely that they'll be picking from the 7th position, where I still like our chances of getting Keegan Murray, who I think is going to be a very good NBA player. Murray, along with Smith, and Ivey, suffered the fate of being the number one focus of the other teams defense. Ivey had one of the worse games of his career. They made it almost impossible for him to get to the basket, and they doubled him every time he touched the ball. Murray suffered the same fate. And somehow he still managed to score 21 pt's in a game where he had zero help.
Like Smith, Murray won't be the number one option or the number two option on offense. On the Kings he'd probably be the fourth option, where it's unlikely he'll be double teamed. He's a very good shooter, and a good defender. Yes there were a couple of games where his defense suffered, but bear in mind, in the conference tournament, he ended up playing 4 games in 4 days, and it was obvious that he wasn't used to that and that his legs were tired. I watched him play in at least15 games this year not counting tournament games, and his defense was just fine.
Other players that I like if for some reason Murray is gone, in no particular order are: Benedict Mathurin, Ochai Agbaji, Jeremy Sochan, A.J. Griffin, Tari Eason, and last but not least, Malaki Branham. Branham has really come on strong toward the end of the season, and like some of the others, he's still only 18 years old. I'm particularly biased when it comes to Sochan. I really, really like him, and wouldn't be a bit disappointed if the Kings took him. He would be considered to be a bit of a reach, but most mocks now have him in the lottery. He's a 6'9", 230 pound SF/PF, who has terrific BBIQ. His outside shot needs a little work, but he has good forum.
Of course with Agbaji your getting a plug and play player who is ready for the NBA. Smart player who can shoot the three, and defend. We probably don't need another guard, but Agbaji is a hell of a player. Griffin is a terrific shooter, and Mathurin is the entire package. A three level scorer and a very good defender. Just so you know, I don't put a lot of value on tournament play one way or the other. The intensity goes up about 3 or 4 notches, and players face defense's that they've never faced before. I'm certainly not going to change my mind about player because of one game after I've watched him play in 20 games previously. I think a player can help himself, but probably not hurt himself, unless he's just downright terrible.
Lastly, I'm pulling for Kansas in this final. I think Kansas can win this game as long as they remember that Agbaji and Braun are the two best players on their team. Just get them the ball! I like McCormack, but he's very hit and miss from game to game. But if he gets hot, then feed the beast. The matchup to watch is going to be between Caleb Love and Agbaji. No player has helped himself more in this tournament than Love. He's looked like the player everyone thought he would be coming out of high school. The sentimental favorite has to be Brady Manek, who spent his freshman year playing along side Trey Young at Oklahoma. He looks entirely different today than he did then.
That's why I think the Kings should target Jaxson Hayes this off-season. He would be a plus defender, both on the interior and on the perimeter, imo. There is nobody in this draft that I've seen who would complement Sabonis on the defensive end of the floor like Hayes. Maybe he's out there, but imo he's not in the usual suspects of draft picks we're talking about on this board. Hayes was a #8 pick in the 2019 draft. He's better now than when NO picked him and hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling. So if one wants a very complementary player to Sabonis, pick him with your #7 (maybe) in this draft by trading the pick to NO.
It didn't work with Turner who is the best fit possible (on paper) next to Sabonis, Having a shot blocking/shooting 4/5 man next to Sabonis has not worked your better of having two SF's next to him and outscore teams. The Pacer were only ever legit when VO was healthy and Turner and Sabonis were splitting time at C while the other was on the bench. Once Sabonis/Turner started next to each other things when downhill fast.
Most 4's are basically massive SF's now days which is why the Kings should look for that type of player (not Barnes) instead of someone like Hayes. I don't get how Hayes would work next to Sabonis when Turner didn't. Most of the good defending actual PF's can't shoot (e.g Draymond/Vanderbelt) which also make them terrible fits next to Sabonis, Anthony Davis is literally the only guy who meets the criteria the Kings need from a big.
With the Mavs extending DFS and them needing to find money to extend Brunson, I do think we could probably get Kleiber and/or their FRP this year (would have to be a draft day trade to skirt the Stepien restrictions) if we also took on Bertans's remaining 3-year 49 million dollars (last year only 5 million guaranteed) contract.
So if we do something like Holmes/Holiday expiring/Harkless expiring for Kleiber/Bertans/2022 FRP (technically the Mavs would be picking for us and then trading that player over), it would save the Mavs three million dollars against the cap (which they could then use to re-sign Brunson) this season and a bunch of money in the next couple of years since Moe and Holiday are off the books next summer and Richaun is making 5 million dollars less per year than Bertans on a same length contract.
Mavs are currently slated to pick at 26th so, tying both main conversations in this thread together over the last couple of days, that's where we'll pick EJ Liddell.
Sabonis/Len/Queta
Maxi/Liddel/Lyles/Bertans
Barnes/Mathurin or Sharpe or Griffin
DDV/Davis
Fox/Davion
If we are going to take on a big contract in exchange for a 3-and-D forward, I think I'd still prefer a Hornets trade but this certainly would be... interesting?
So if we do something like Holmes/Holiday expiring/Harkless expiring for Kleiber/Bertans/2022 FRP (technically the Mavs would be picking for us and then trading that player over), it would save the Mavs three million dollars against the cap (which they could then use to re-sign Brunson) this season and a bunch of money in the next couple of years since Moe and Holiday are off the books next summer and Richaun is making 5 million dollars less per year than Bertans on a same length contract.
Mavs are currently slated to pick at 26th so, tying both main conversations in this thread together over the last couple of days, that's where we'll pick EJ Liddell.
Sabonis/Len/Queta
Maxi/Liddel/Lyles/Bertans
Barnes/Mathurin or Sharpe or Griffin
DDV/Davis
Fox/Davion
If we are going to take on a big contract in exchange for a 3-and-D forward, I think I'd still prefer a Hornets trade but this certainly would be... interesting?
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