This is a really smart way of looking at this. I've been formulating those scenarios myself and basically came to the same conclusion -- Len and Porter seem like they'll almost certainly be picked before us. It's tough to know which of the rumors are complete fabrication, but I've seen Bennett linked to Washington, Charlotte, Phoenix, and New Orleans. No one is really talking about Noel other than saying he's still the consensus #1 pick (just not a great fit for the Cavs) but his injury history is worrisome. Burke got a lot of buzz early on but it's since died down. Orlando at 2 is a little high for him and if New Orleans wants him they're keeping quiet about it. Everyone says Oladipo is rising and McLemore is slipping but is that a smoke-screen? As you pointed out, both guys are strictly SGs and three teams above us are set at that position, though you can always count on at least one team making a completely unexpected talent grab. So right now if I had to guess I would cross McLemore and Bennett off your list and predict we'll end up with Oladipo, Burke, or Noel.
Taking it a bit further, Washington is the key for us -- if Cleveland goes Len I expect they take Porter or Bennett. If Cleveland takes Porter it'll probably be Bennett or Noel. After that I'm fairly certain New Orleans wouldn't take Noel since they already have Davis. I'm also worried that Jordan likes to take defensive roleplayers. They've been linked to Bennett and McLemore because everyone assumes they'll take a scorer but I could easily see them instead taking Oladipo. And Phoenix has so many needs they're just going to take whoever they have highest on their board. The tough choice is whether to take more of a sure-thing with Oladipo and Burke or riskier picks like Noel, McLemore, Len, or Bennett. Considering everything I've read I'd say that a lot still has to break right for us to get Oladipo or Noel, and Burke is the most likely to fall.