Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
The Spotrac numbers have us only $4.9M under the first apron, without including the McDermott signing (so really, more like $2.8M or so, depending on the size of the contract). These numbers look correct to me. We are far too close to the apron to usefully trade into the MLE. DFS is at $14.9M so the MLE ($12.8M) is not big enough for him anyway.
Well, that sends me down a bit of a rabbit hole - and I don't really have the answer.
They DO include Orlando Robinson, who is on a (partially guaranteed) NBA contract for his full $2.09M.
By their own tables, I don't think they're including Taylor/Skal/Boogie/Thomas in their calculations. They give those players a cap hit of $0 because they are on Exhibit 10 contracts.
If I add up all the salaries including Robinson, I get ~$165.0M. Spotrac's active roster is given as $169.7M, and I can't account for the $4.7M difference. ...Actually, I think I can. Guess how much McDaniels was making? $4.7M. I think their code is still adding in McDaniels' salary even though he's not listed.
They also are including cap holds for McGee and Ford, which comes up to $3.95M in their numbers, but this can go away.
So: assuming $2.09M for McDermott and ignoring the cap holds, which can go away if needed, our current salary would appear to be $167.1M.
This means we are currently under the luxury tax, which starts at $170.8M.
Our Apron number is different than our cap number because we have $3.5M in unlikely bonuses - these get included in Apron numbers but not cap numbers, so our Apron number would appear to be $170.6M, and the first apron hard cap is at $178.1M.
Edit: The numbers I used for the team cap number were originally calculated for the apron calculations and deliberately included the $3.5M in unlikely bonuses, but I forgot to subtract that out when reverting to the cap number. All numbers (and one major conclusion) have been adjusted accordingly.
Also, Spotrac, what's the point of having a website that makes all these calculations for us if you can't get the numbers right and I just have to calculate it all out anyway?
They DO include Orlando Robinson, who is on a (partially guaranteed) NBA contract for his full $2.09M.
By their own tables, I don't think they're including Taylor/Skal/Boogie/Thomas in their calculations. They give those players a cap hit of $0 because they are on Exhibit 10 contracts.
If I add up all the salaries including Robinson, I get ~$165.0M. Spotrac's active roster is given as $169.7M, and I can't account for the $4.7M difference. ...Actually, I think I can. Guess how much McDaniels was making? $4.7M. I think their code is still adding in McDaniels' salary even though he's not listed.
They also are including cap holds for McGee and Ford, which comes up to $3.95M in their numbers, but this can go away.
So: assuming $2.09M for McDermott and ignoring the cap holds, which can go away if needed, our current salary would appear to be $167.1M.
This means we are currently under the luxury tax, which starts at $170.8M.
Our Apron number is different than our cap number because we have $3.5M in unlikely bonuses - these get included in Apron numbers but not cap numbers, so our Apron number would appear to be $170.6M, and the first apron hard cap is at $178.1M.
Edit: The numbers I used for the team cap number were originally calculated for the apron calculations and deliberately included the $3.5M in unlikely bonuses, but I forgot to subtract that out when reverting to the cap number. All numbers (and one major conclusion) have been adjusted accordingly.
Also, Spotrac, what's the point of having a website that makes all these calculations for us if you can't get the numbers right and I just have to calculate it all out anyway?
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Little is a definite possibility. He fits the "Monte McNair" profile & would probably even don a ski vest if the Kings signed him.
As a Tar Heel fan, I know the guy also has a great locker room presence.
According to the Miami Heat press release, Nassir played in two preseason games. In one of those games, he went 0-7 from the field, but in the other one, he was 4-7 and 4-5 from deep for 15 points total, with 4 rebounds and 3 assists, +5 in 32 minutes.
https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401717023
As a Tar Heel fan, I know the guy also has a great locker room presence.
According to the Miami Heat press release, Nassir played in two preseason games. In one of those games, he went 0-7 from the field, but in the other one, he was 4-7 and 4-5 from deep for 15 points total, with 4 rebounds and 3 assists, +5 in 32 minutes.
https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401717023
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It will be interesting to see how this year develops and how Monte will make improvements if he thinks we need them. We are in a bit of a tough spot as far as tradable contracts goes and we don’t have a bevy of second rounders to clump together in a lower level deal. Essentially our assets are Kev, Trey Bey and some first rounders. Keegan would have great value around the league but the player you trade him for would have to be so much better than him and would leave you super thin at forward. Devin or Ellis would have value too but they don’t make much money so salary matching becomes tough.
Two guys to keep an eye on are DFS and Portis. Nets are almost assuredly going to trade him this year and the Bucks will likely shake up the roster if things get weird there.
Maybe Monte pulls a Dallas and grabs both of them.
Fox Monk
Deebo Ellis Carter
Keegan Mcbuckets
DFS Portis
Sabonis Len
Two guys to keep an eye on are DFS and Portis. Nets are almost assuredly going to trade him this year and the Bucks will likely shake up the roster if things get weird there.
Maybe Monte pulls a Dallas and grabs both of them.
Fox Monk
Deebo Ellis Carter
Keegan Mcbuckets
DFS Portis
Sabonis Len
When you look at the cap moving on, I can't see it unless Monte knows it's a short term push. I mean, Petrie did those sort of things too so it's possible. Even with doing something like letting Lyles and Huerter walk Monte is going to be in a world of hurt cap wise potentially. Signing DeRozan and re-signing Monk were kind of those last big cap filler type moves. Fox has to be re-signed as well as Keegan. Then there's Keon of course. If Monte makes a move, I think it's because the team didn't meet the bar set as far as success. Then all options are on the table. I still think the smart move is to give it this season and see what happens. Monte doesn't want to tinker at the deadline on role guys just to let them walk or eventually cost you some of your own guys. The Huerter situation is the one to watch. Monte has been trying to move him for how long now? Does that change with better play? Or does that just make him moveable? I can see Monte just holding onto him even if he eventually falls out of the rotation again at some point regardless. His contract falls off the summer of cap explosion haha.
I think in the NBA a team is only as good as their best 9 players. Everything else is backup depth for surviving major injuries. In that regard, we're in pretty good shape with Fox, Sabonis, DDR, Keegan, Monk, Huerter, Ellis and presumably Carter as the top 8 with the only real shot at a significant upgrade needing to come from the frontcourt. Maybe long-term Monte anticipates not re-signing Huerter so he becomes available right away if an upgrade is possible but the way he's playing right now it would be tough to figure out an obtainable player who would count as a clear upgrade.
I’m starting to come around to the idea of playing Keegan at SG on defense and DeRozan at SG on offense and rounding out the starting lineup with a bigger/longer 3&D PF long term.
For example, we could do a deadline deal like…
Kevin Huerter
Devin Carter
for
Jonathan Isaac
…that gives us a rotation of…
PG - Fox / Monk / McLaughlin
SG - Murray / Ellis / Jones
SF - DeRozan / McDermott
PF - Isaac / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Len / Robinson
That team has a pretty good shot at being a good defensive team with…
In fact, we may be the best rebounding team in the league considering how good Isaac is in that department and how improved Murray looks rebounding this year. Then you add DeRozan and Fox who are no slouches either (4-5 REB per game)
And before anyone replies and points out Isaac’s obvious injury history, his new extension seems really team friendly. He’s under contract for 5 years and will be paid $15 mil/year starting next season (hell of a bargain for that “unicorn” PF you want to pair Sabonis with). On top of that, he has stipulations in his contract that makes his contract guaranteed only if he plays 52 games in the previous season. It breaks down like this…
For example, we could do a deadline deal like…
Kevin Huerter
Devin Carter
for
Jonathan Isaac
…that gives us a rotation of…
PG - Fox / Monk / McLaughlin
SG - Murray / Ellis / Jones
SF - DeRozan / McDermott
PF - Isaac / Lyles
C - Sabonis / Len / Robinson
That team has a pretty good shot at being a good defensive team with…
- A DPOY level anchor like Isaac
- A big wing defender like Murray
- Pesty guard defenders like Fox & Ellis
- A great defensive rebounder like Sabonis
In fact, we may be the best rebounding team in the league considering how good Isaac is in that department and how improved Murray looks rebounding this year. Then you add DeRozan and Fox who are no slouches either (4-5 REB per game)
And before anyone replies and points out Isaac’s obvious injury history, his new extension seems really team friendly. He’s under contract for 5 years and will be paid $15 mil/year starting next season (hell of a bargain for that “unicorn” PF you want to pair Sabonis with). On top of that, he has stipulations in his contract that makes his contract guaranteed only if he plays 52 games in the previous season. It breaks down like this…
- 2025-26: $15 mil fully guaranteed
- 2026-27: $8 mil guaranteed. $14.5 mil guaranteed if he plays at least 52 games in the previous season
- 2027-28: non-guaranteed. $14.5 mil guaranteed if he plays at least 52 games in the previous season
- 2028-29: non-guaranteed. $15 mil guaranteed if he plays at least 52 games in the previous season
I think we're already seeing the benefits of Keegan finally becoming a PF. Keegan does a good job on G's in POA but there's still moments where a lot of the Kings help is because smaller players are just going to beat him off the dribble. As for the trade, that's about as big of an overpay as you get IMO. If Carter pans out Monte would look pretty dang foolish. Also, Carter dropping to 13 probably means he's far more valuable to the team who likes him rather than as trade bait. Huerter playing well for another month and Isaac looking like a 15 mpg role player might be even if things continue as they are.
You and I both know that we were probably the biggest Carter advocates during the draft so you know how much I value him.
However, finding that perfect fit next to Sabonis is quite difficult to do but Isaac is quite possibly the best option in the league while providing DPOY type impact on the defensive end. And I like him even more considering the contract he is on and knowing how expensive it will be to keep Fox, Monk, Ellis, Murray, DeRozan, and Sabonis over the coming years with these aprons.
As for him being a 15 mpg role player, that’s mainly due to…
However, finding that perfect fit next to Sabonis is quite difficult to do but Isaac is quite possibly the best option in the league while providing DPOY type impact on the defensive end. And I like him even more considering the contract he is on and knowing how expensive it will be to keep Fox, Monk, Ellis, Murray, DeRozan, and Sabonis over the coming years with these aprons.
As for him being a 15 mpg role player, that’s mainly due to…
- ORL already having a starting PF named Banchero. Makes it a little difficult to get substantial floor time especially when they have F. Wagner at SF logging big minutes and they have Carter, M. Wagner, and Bitadze logging minutes at C (they mainly played Isaac at forward last year. Not C).
- ORL being cautious with him coming back from his injury. He basically missed the last few seasons and I think ORL wanted to slowly ramp him up.
why do you think Orlando would be interested? Suggs and KCP are locked in as starters and then they have Black who is super young and has been playing well for them.
IMO, we should be looking at DFS. He would be a huge upgrade over Lyles (love Trey) and give us a lot more versatility. If Carter is who we think he could be our bench would be full of Dawgs and enough scoring punch to really do some damage.
IMO, we should be looking at DFS. He would be a huge upgrade over Lyles (love Trey) and give us a lot more versatility. If Carter is who we think he could be our bench would be full of Dawgs and enough scoring punch to really do some damage.
Well for starters, Suggs isn’t really a PG and a backcourt of Suggs/KCP is definitely lacking in the creation/playmaking department. That’s mitigated a bit by having Banchero and Wagner who can also do those things, but replacing KCP with a guy like Carter gives them 4 guys who can handle the rock, pass, and shoot so they can all share the load.
The other thing to consider is ORL’s financial situation in the years to come. When Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs are on their 2nd contracts, it will be helpful to have a guy of Carter’s caliber on a rookie deal.
As for DFS, I’m obviously a fan of him as well and would be interested in trading for him. I would be hesitant to give up a 1st for him at this point considering his contract situation but a Huerter and 2nds type of deal makes a lot of sense for us.
If we did acquire DFS, I’d ponder a similar idea about starting…
PG - Fox
SG - Murray
SF - DeRozan
PF - DFS
C - Sabonis
…versus starting…
PG - Fox
SG - Ellis/Carter
SF - DeRozan
PF - Murray
C - Sabonis
…a DeRozan, Murray, & Sabonis frontcourt is always going to be small and there will be teams where we immediately have mismatches to start the game due to that lack of size & length. If we start Fox-Murray-DeRozan-DFS-Sabonis, I have a hard time seeing us have significant mismatches right out of the gate.
However, the issue with starting Fox-Murray-DeRozan-DFS-Sabonis is how the minutes breaks down and how it would force us to play a 3 guard lineup for long stretches of the game. For example, Fox should be at 34-36 mpg, Monk should be at 26-28 mpg, Ellis should be at 20-24 mpg, and Carter will probably be deserving of around 20-24 mpg. That’s 100-112 mpg for our guards (there’s only 96 min to spare) and we haven’t even allocated any SG minutes to Murray yet.
This is another reason why my proposal for Isaac makes some sense as well. It allows us to start a lineup of Fox-Murray-DeRozan-Isaac-Sabonis (limiting mismatches right out of the gate) AND it avoids a log jam in the backup guard spots. For instance, you could have a minutes rotation like…
PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Murray (18) / Monk (12) / Ellis (18)
SF - DeRozan (28) / Murray (14) / Ellis (6)
PF - Isaac (28) / Lyles (14) / DeRozan (6)
C - Sabonis (34) / Len (10) / Lyles (4)
Fox = 34 min
DeRozan = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Murray = 32 min
Isaac = 28 min
Monk = 26 min
Ellis = 24 min
Lyles = 18 min
Len = 10 min
That only has us playing 6 min in a 3 guard lineup which I can live with. I have Isaac at 28 mpg, but honestly, with his impact on the floor, he should be a 30+ mpg player (it just depends on his health/mitigating factor injuries).
Oh and you want to know one of the underrated reasons why I absolutely love Isaac’s game? HE DOESN’T FOUL!!! Per 36 min, the guy averaged 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 2.8 blocks while only averaging 2.5 fouls! The only player on our roster last year that averaged less fouls per minute was Barnes and I’d imagine that’s largely because he doesn’t play passing lanes/use his hands to disrupt a player’s dribble (0.8 steals per 36 min), he doesn’t contest shots at the rim (0.2 blocks per 36 min), and he doesn’t compete for rebounds (3.8 rebounds per 36 min). The fact that Isaac is playing elite level defense while limiting fouls this much is darn impressive.
Looking across the league, only Wemby and A. Davis defend at a similar level with minimal fouls. They’re per 36 min stats last year were…
Wemby: 12.9 REB / 1.5 STL / 4.3 BLK / 2.6 PF
Davis: 12.8 REB / 1.2 STL / 2.4 BLK / 2.4 PF
Isaac: 10.2 REB / 1.7 STL / 2.8 BLK / 2.5 PF
That’s quite the group to be in. And compare that to a guy many here think is the best fit next to Sabonis…Jaren Jackson Jr. He averaged 4 fouls per 36 min last year and that was actually a down year for him (which I think is largely due to his expanded offensive role due to all the injuries making him less active defensively). The previous season, he averaged 4.6 fouls per 36 min. Yikes!
Defending without fouling has been a big emphasis by the coaching staff this year. Issac does just that but at an elite level.
The other thing to consider is ORL’s financial situation in the years to come. When Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs are on their 2nd contracts, it will be helpful to have a guy of Carter’s caliber on a rookie deal.
As for DFS, I’m obviously a fan of him as well and would be interested in trading for him. I would be hesitant to give up a 1st for him at this point considering his contract situation but a Huerter and 2nds type of deal makes a lot of sense for us.
If we did acquire DFS, I’d ponder a similar idea about starting…
PG - Fox
SG - Murray
SF - DeRozan
PF - DFS
C - Sabonis
…versus starting…
PG - Fox
SG - Ellis/Carter
SF - DeRozan
PF - Murray
C - Sabonis
…a DeRozan, Murray, & Sabonis frontcourt is always going to be small and there will be teams where we immediately have mismatches to start the game due to that lack of size & length. If we start Fox-Murray-DeRozan-DFS-Sabonis, I have a hard time seeing us have significant mismatches right out of the gate.
However, the issue with starting Fox-Murray-DeRozan-DFS-Sabonis is how the minutes breaks down and how it would force us to play a 3 guard lineup for long stretches of the game. For example, Fox should be at 34-36 mpg, Monk should be at 26-28 mpg, Ellis should be at 20-24 mpg, and Carter will probably be deserving of around 20-24 mpg. That’s 100-112 mpg for our guards (there’s only 96 min to spare) and we haven’t even allocated any SG minutes to Murray yet.
This is another reason why my proposal for Isaac makes some sense as well. It allows us to start a lineup of Fox-Murray-DeRozan-Isaac-Sabonis (limiting mismatches right out of the gate) AND it avoids a log jam in the backup guard spots. For instance, you could have a minutes rotation like…
PG - Fox (34) / Monk (14)
SG - Murray (18) / Monk (12) / Ellis (18)
SF - DeRozan (28) / Murray (14) / Ellis (6)
PF - Isaac (28) / Lyles (14) / DeRozan (6)
C - Sabonis (34) / Len (10) / Lyles (4)
Fox = 34 min
DeRozan = 34 min
Sabonis = 34 min
Murray = 32 min
Isaac = 28 min
Monk = 26 min
Ellis = 24 min
Lyles = 18 min
Len = 10 min
That only has us playing 6 min in a 3 guard lineup which I can live with. I have Isaac at 28 mpg, but honestly, with his impact on the floor, he should be a 30+ mpg player (it just depends on his health/mitigating factor injuries).
Oh and you want to know one of the underrated reasons why I absolutely love Isaac’s game? HE DOESN’T FOUL!!! Per 36 min, the guy averaged 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 2.8 blocks while only averaging 2.5 fouls! The only player on our roster last year that averaged less fouls per minute was Barnes and I’d imagine that’s largely because he doesn’t play passing lanes/use his hands to disrupt a player’s dribble (0.8 steals per 36 min), he doesn’t contest shots at the rim (0.2 blocks per 36 min), and he doesn’t compete for rebounds (3.8 rebounds per 36 min). The fact that Isaac is playing elite level defense while limiting fouls this much is darn impressive.
Looking across the league, only Wemby and A. Davis defend at a similar level with minimal fouls. They’re per 36 min stats last year were…
Wemby: 12.9 REB / 1.5 STL / 4.3 BLK / 2.6 PF
Davis: 12.8 REB / 1.2 STL / 2.4 BLK / 2.4 PF
Isaac: 10.2 REB / 1.7 STL / 2.8 BLK / 2.5 PF
That’s quite the group to be in. And compare that to a guy many here think is the best fit next to Sabonis…Jaren Jackson Jr. He averaged 4 fouls per 36 min last year and that was actually a down year for him (which I think is largely due to his expanded offensive role due to all the injuries making him less active defensively). The previous season, he averaged 4.6 fouls per 36 min. Yikes!
Defending without fouling has been a big emphasis by the coaching staff this year. Issac does just that but at an elite level.
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It will be interesting to see what teams if any will be selling at the deadline. Will the Nets keep being decent? Do they really want more picks or would they rather hold on to their role players and instead flip their own picks to trade for a star and keep the Cams and DFSs to compliment a Giannis type. The Jazz can’t trade Lauri so they don’t have anyone we want. The Blazers have way too many prospects, maybe revisit Thybulle? Portis if Milwaukee blows up. Charlotte is building not selling. Ditto Detroit. The Wizards don’t really have much we could use. Atlanta? Probably not. Might be hard to find a trade partner for playoff level teams this year.
