Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker

I admittedly have watched like 7 Naz Reid games, but is he really THAT much slower laterally than HB these days? I don't think so tbh. And again, I don't need 30+ of Naz/Sabonis on the floor together, I need 12-15. That seems very doable, especially if Naz keeps ascending and getting better as I expect him to do.

And offensively, I think it works great. Naz is someone who wants to start outside, get downhill and attack you at the rim. He's not some post-up big, although that is part of his game. I know Jerami Grant is a popular name and it'd be basically the same role you'd give him that you'd have Naz do.
No but I think HB is an awful defender haha.

It's one of the reasons why I think HB needs to get out of the starting lineup
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
Excellent post. Really reaffirms my initial read of this class that Naz should be our target. I think he does a few things; he secures an actual back-up for Domas and fills the largest hole on the team. He gives you a real upside young guy that honestly shouldn't be available in UFA; and makes up for not having that prospect at 24 this year. Domas just can't be 6th in the NBA in minutes next season; getting him to the playoffs more rested and healthier absolutely needs to be a priority.


I don't think Naz and Lyles are redundant at all; especially if you really believe in Naz as a true 4/5 flex. The Kings have exactly one big on the roster lol. That's why I think he could absolutely work; I don't need 30+ MPG of him at the 4, I need 12-15. And then he effectively acts as Domas's back-up at the 5. And then for the other 30ish minutes available at the 4, you work in Lyles/Vezenkov/Keegan, etc.
Yeah, if you believe either is a quality starter next to Domas then they aren't redundant. But if both are backups (and assuming that Vezenkov is signed and is a contributor) then you have tied up a fair amount of capspace in 4/5 and 5/4 backups
 
Yeah, if you believe either is a quality starter next to Domas then they aren't redundant. But if both are backups (and assuming that Vezenkov is signed and is a contributor) then you have tied up a fair amount of capspace in 4/5 and 5/4 backups
Yeah, that'd be the idea. Naz starts, Lyles fills in at the back-up 4/5 and those are your 3 bigs in the rotation. It wouldn't make a ton of sense to sign Naz and Lyles AND still need to fill the HB slot in the starting 5.

Although....

Fox || Davion
Huerter || Monk
Hart || Vezenkov
Keegan || Lyles
Domas || Naz

That's the deepest and one of the most talented teams in the NBA. And if Hart is willing to leave NY, actually seems fairly plausible to put on paper.
 
I admittedly have watched like 7 Naz Reid games, but is he really THAT much slower laterally than HB these days?
I think he is. Naz Reid will get torched trying to guard the Kevin Durants, the Michael Porter Jr's, Jabari Smith Jr's, Lauri Markannnen's, Leonard/George, Old Man Bron, Chet Holmgren. You could argue HB would too, but honestly I'd trust him to do a much better job.

Naz is a heavyset dude, look at his neck. Super lean for him is 240lbs, normally he's much more like 255.

I'm sorry but there's NO WAY we just forfeited our 1st rd pick to unload Richaun Holmes early to then hand that same $$$ to another 6'9" C in Reid a month later.. I'm gonna need to see it to believe that one, and I am a huge Naz Reid fan, he's a local kid to me, followed him since recruitment.

IMO Trey Lyles is like our low-cost Naz Reid..

Thing is too, the bidding might get very steep on Reid right away.. There might be a team looking to plug him into a far bigger role than we are..
 
Last edited:
Yeah, that'd be the idea. Naz starts, Lyles fills in at the back-up 4/5 and those are your 3 bigs in the rotation. It wouldn't make a ton of sense to sign Naz and Lyles AND still need to fill the HB slot in the starting 5.

Although....

Fox || Davion
Huerter || Monk
Hart || Vezenkov
Keegan || Lyles
Domas || Naz

That's the deepest and one of the most talented teams in the NBA. And if Hart is willing to leave NY, actually seems fairly plausible to put on paper.
I like the hart addition but I think hart and Keegan lineup is small.
 
I think with the Sasha situation working out towards him coming, Barnes' role will be diminished. I feel he's the kind of guy that can accept that role as long as the moneys not disrespectful. I dont know what that number is.

I feel like he's going to move on.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
I like the hart addition but I think hart and Keegan lineup is small.
6'5" isn't really that small for a wing in this day and age, especially considering how Hart plays much bigger than his size.

Keegan's at 6'8"/6'9" which might have been small for a power forward up until the late 2000s but at this point, he's prototypical forward size.

If certain lineups had a size advantage, you could probably just swap Kessler/Lyles/Sasha/whoever in for Hart (the good thing about a role player like Hart is that he has to this point been an absolute team player when it comes to minutes and rotation time) and play with the same size we has last year.
 
6'5" isn't really that small for a wing in this day and age, especially considering how Hart plays much bigger than his size.

Keegan's at 6'8"/6'9" which might have been small for a power forward up until the late 2000s but at this point, he's prototypical forward size.

If certain lineups had a size advantage, you could probably just swap Kessler/Lyles/Sasha/whoever in for Hart (the good thing about a role player like Hart is that he has to this point been an absolute team player when it comes to minutes and rotation time) and play with the same size we has last year.
I really like hart and he, monk and fox have a friendship and would only make chemistry grow even more.
 
Spoiler alert: If you still want to guess, don't read this post.



Answers:

Player A is Josh Hart
Player B is Jerami Grant
Player C is Kyle Kuzma
Player D is Trey Lyles
Player E is Draymond Green
Player F is Bruce Brown
Player G is Naz Reid
Player H is Grant Williams
Player I is Cam Johnson

What do I take away from this?

The most direct statistical replacement for Barnes is Cam Johnson. He adds more steals and a bit more positional versatility, while shooting a similar percentage from 3 on higher volume. He doesn't draw free throws as well as HB (nobody on this list is even close though) but Barnes himself really increased his FTr the last couple seasons so there's reason to hope Johnson and others here will similarly improve as they enter "crafty vet" territory in their careers. Johnson is 4 years younger than Barnes so he's closer to the Fox/Domas timeline, but he's still 27 and not likely to see major improvements at this point in his career.

Grant Williams won't turn 25 until after the start of next season so he's got a bit more of a chance to improve, especially with a bigger role and in the Sacramento offense. He's a slight upgrade from Barnes as both a shooter and a rebounder and the stats bear out what my eyes tell me - he's a better defender too. But Williams doesn't offer any additional positional versatility - probably less as I think he's strictly a big wing/4 who I wouldn't want playing small ball center or chasing around smaller/quicker wings or guards often. He struggled to see the floor in the first two playoff series this year and while he got roughly his normal minutes against the Heat, he didn't really step up there either. Do the Kings want to gamble that he'll be better with bigger minutes and a starting role?

Josh Hart wasn't a big consideration for me so far this offseason because I assumed that he was re-signing with the Knicks and not a legitimate target for the Kings. That may still be the case, but his numbers are eyepopping even when you know going in that he's a good passer and strong rebounder. He'd give a Kings team with a potential glut of 4/5 guys and some smaller guards a LOT of positional versatility as a 2/3 wing. Tough defender, efficient scorer and just a guy does a lot well, though his outside shooting volume is a bit of a concern. I'm much more open to pursuing him than I was before.

I'd almost talked myself into Kuzma. McNair likes him, some of his advanced stats look good, he's a strong rebounder and an underrated playmaker etc. But he's really inefficient as a scorer and doesn't get to the line a lot. Those are both big deals IMO. The argument could be made that he'll be more efficient on a better team with a more defined role, but I don't see it. Part of why the Kings offense worked so well is that so many guys (HB, but also Huerter, Murray, Sabonis, Monk, Lyles etc) were willing to pass up a decent shot to make the extra pass for someone else to have a better one. I'm not sure you'll see that as much with Kuzma. I think he'll take a lot of those decent shots because that's how he plays.

I was already not on board with throwing a big deal at Jerami Grant and while he had the best 3P% of the guys on this list last season, his anemic rebounding (I knew it was low but I didn't realize it was that low), high usage rate and poor defensive metrics just soured me on the idea even further.

Draymond is Draymond. You'd sacrifice spacing for defensive improvement. The bigger issue for me is that Sabonis is already the offensive hub which doesn't leave Green a clear role on offense. I think Brown would have to stagger their minutes a lot to both guys play to their strengths and IMO I don't see why you'd give a $100M contract to a 33 year old Draymond if he's not a great fit with one of your two cornerstones. He'd absolutely improve the defense and give the team more of an edge. That's the only real counterargument I see.

I think collectively we underrate Lyles. Based just on the numbers he'd likely be my 2nd or 3rd pick from this list. But the more I think about it, the Kings should either re-sign him OR sign Reid, but not both. Lyles is a big wing/4 who has shown flashes of being a good smallball 5. Reid is a 5 who has shown flashes of working as a big wing/4. Either could be hugely valuable, but I see both as being redundant unless there are injuries. Reid gets a bump for being significantly younger and likely capable of more improvement. Lyles gets a bump for already showing how well he fits with the existing roster. Neither is a guy that you want battling Embiid or Jokic but I'd be happy with either. Personally I'd give a slight edge to Lyles, but I can see the argument for going with Reid instead.

To me Bruce Brown doesn't make a ton of sense for this team. He's a good defender, but I wouldn't want him on big wings like LeBron, Durant, Paul George, Kawhi, MPJ or Aaron Gordon, Luka, etc. He's much more of a SG that can flex to SF, but I'd rather have Josh Hart in that case. He's a good rebounder for a 2/3 but not a clear improvement on HB and not one of the better shooters on this list. He shoots a decent percentage on lower volume than everyone except Hart and Draymond.

In short, Hart to me seems like a clear upgrade from HB but beyond that it's pretty murky. But I hope this team has either Lyles or Reid on it next season.
the issue is we have to have someone who can defend a 2/3. That isn’t really many on that list of players. Keegan is better as a 3/4 defender and Trey as a 4 small ball 5.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
the issue is we have to have someone who can defend a 2/3. That isn’t really many on that list of players. Keegan is better as a 3/4 defender and Trey as a 4 small ball 5.
Right. At least in terms of the starting 5 there are two options if the team wants to try and upgrade from Barnes. One is to put Keegan at the 4 and sign or trade for a 3. The other option is to have Keegan may the 3 and sign a 4.

If possible I prefer the second option because there's a greater chance of adding rebounding and rim protection from that pool of players.

But the Kings could go the other route. My top choice in that scenario is Josh Hart who looks to be on track to re-sign with the Knicks.

I don't think Khris Middleton is a realistic option (and even if he were, I'm not sure he should be a target given his cost vs his age and injury history) so then you're looking at guys like Bruce Brown.

Cam Johnson is a 3/4 and Grant Williams is more of a 4/3 so the pickings get pretty slim after that. Dillon Brooks? Talen Horton-Tucker?

Not a lot of starter quality 2/3s in free agency this year. I love Thybulle's defense but (a) he's restricted and (b) I think at this point no one can have confidence in him becoming a consistent enough shooter to stay on the floor.

I'm not sure if I'm missing any clear targets that would both be an upgrade from Barnes and are more of a 2/3 option.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think he is. Naz Reid will get torched trying to guard the Kevin Durants, the Michael Porter Jr's, Jabari Smith Jr's, Lauri Markannnen's, Leonard/George, Old Man Bron, Chet Holmgren. You could argue HB would too, but honestly I'd trust him to do a much better job.

Naz is a heavyset dude, look at his neck. Super lean for him is 240lbs, normally he's much more like 255.

I'm sorry but there's NO WAY we just forfeited our 1st rd pick to unload Richaun Holmes early to then hand that same $$$ to another 6'9" C in Reid a month later.. I'm gonna need to see it to believe that one, and I am a huge Naz Reid fan, he's a local kid to me, followed him since recruitment.

IMO Trey Lyles is like our low-cost Naz Reid..

Thing is too, the bidding might get very steep on Reid right away.. There might be a team looking to plug him into a far bigger role than we are..
This is my biggest issue with Reid. I don't think he's a guy you want playing defense on the perimeter. He adds more interior defense and rebounding, and he's mobile for a center, but not switchable. His shooting numbers are also a bit misleading IMO. He has a nice shot, but it's not quick. He gets a lot of his looks from 3 when he's operating as the main big on the floor. I think he'd have more trouble getting shots off if he's starting as a big wing. That said, I love watching him on offense. Is there a big in the league right now with a better handle?

But I think Lyles gives you a lot of that same production and more positional versatility at a lower cost. He's also 4 years older so what you see is pretty much what you get while Reid should continue to improve. But I just don't think slotting him at the 4 is a clear upgrade over Barnes. I think it would improve the team in some ways and hurt it in others.
 
Right. At least in terms of the starting 5 there are two options if the team wants to try and upgrade from Barnes. One is to put Keegan at the 4 and sign or trade for a 3. The other option is to have Keegan may the 3 and sign a 4.

If possible I prefer the second option because there's a greater chance of adding rebounding and rim protection from that pool of players.

But the Kings could go the other route. My top choice in that scenario is Josh Hart who looks to be on track to re-sign with the Knicks.

I don't think Khris Middleton is a realistic option (and even if he were, I'm not sure he should be a target given his cost vs his age and injury history) so then you're looking at guys like Bruce Brown.

Cam Johnson is a 3/4 and Grant Williams is more of a 4/3 so the pickings get pretty slim after that. Dillon Brooks? Talen Horton-Tucker?

Not a lot of starter quality 2/3s in free agency this year. I love Thybulle's defense but (a) he's restricted and (b) I think at this point no one can have confidence in him becoming a consistent enough shooter to stay on the floor.

I'm not sure if I'm missing any clear targets that would both be an upgrade from Barnes and are more of a 2/3 option.
In regard to finding a SG that could supplant Huerter as the starter, I think it’s really just Josh Hart and Bruce Brown. Royce O’Neale as a trade option as well but if you’re bringing one of these guys aboard you need to send out one of the guards as we’d have a log jam. Going off their mpg averages last year, this was the minute distribution at the guard spot…

PG - Fox (34) / Mitchell (14)
SG - Huerter (22) / Monk (22) Mitchell (4)
SF - Huerter (8)

If you add a Hart, Brown, O’Neale, etc. there just isn’t really any minutes to give them without sending someone out.
 
Well shoot. There’s one target gone. Onto the next. When does legal tampering begin? Next week?
The "moratorium" ends at 3pm Friday and deals can be announced Saturday. I guess the NBA is trying to at least pretend everyone isn't tampering. We just have to believe all the deals got done within that 9 hours instead of the traditional 5 minutes it takes Woj & Shams to tweet out 100 deals
 

Maybe slightly off topic but I'd really like to see Queta with an actual role on the team next year. I understand G league isn't NBA but you can't give a guy all of 29 minutes and expect youve seen everything he can do. Domas's kryptonite all year has been big physical bigs so it makes sense to have one on our roster to play strategically in those spots. Subbing in Queta as soon as someone like Looney or Adams checks in and putting a big physical body on them is just one idea

If we manage to steal Bruce Brown, sign Sasha, bring back Barnes and Lyles on reasonable deals, and give Queta a "prove it" contract I'd be relatively happy with that off-season
 

Maybe slightly off topic but I'd really like to see Queta with an actual role on the team next year. I understand G league isn't NBA but you can't give a guy all of 29 minutes and expect youve seen everything he can do. Domas's kryptonite all year has been big physical bigs so it makes sense to have one on our roster to play strategically in those spots. Subbing in Queta as soon as someone like Looney or Adams checks in and putting a big physical body on them is just one idea

If we manage to steal Bruce Brown, sign Sasha, bring back Barnes and Lyles on reasonable deals, and give Queta a "prove it" contract I'd be relatively happy with that off-season
Have you watched Queta play? I don't consider him a big body being put on someone. He gets some blocks, but rebounding is a weakness that he needs to fix to get time.
 
Have you watched Queta play? I don't consider him a big body being put on someone. He gets some blocks, but rebounding is a weakness that he needs to fix to get time.
In summer league and NBA but admittedly not in Stockton. But by the stats he was one of the most efficient players in the G-league and you don't get to 68% shooting and 2nd in MVP by accident. If he's a servicable NBA post up player that's something we can use in a lot of matchups. Altho ultimately id trust the FO to know his ceiling more, just hoping to see him get more burn (and he seems to have a way higher ceiling than Harry ever did, but that was sorta force memed hype)
 
More than that, I think Barnes served his role with the Kings. They needed a steady vet with playoff (and championship) experience to help them finally reach the postseason. HB won't have a shortage of suitors since he works equally well as a reliable 4th or 5th option for a contending team or as a mentor for a young, upcoming team. But I think for the Kings to take the next step, replacing Barnes as a starter is the most clear route to help shore up some weaknesses.

I wouldn't be upset if he were re-signed and the Kings essentially ran it back, but there's an opportunity to get a better fit that also matches the Fox/Sabonis/Murrary timeline better.



One issue with Barnes and Murray as the starting forwards is that neither is a strong rebounder. I think Murray will continue to improve in this area, but last year HB averaged 4.9 rpg per 36 minutes and Keegan was only slightly better at 5.6 rpg per 36. Neither of them are rim protectors, but Barnes had moments of 1-on-1 creation that we hope Keegan develops. Which is why his struggles in the playoffs were so glaring. Outside of Fox and Monk, the Kings lack a guy who can get his own shot when needed.

So who represents a clear upgrade?

Pure statistical analysis (and per 36 numbers especially) never tell the full story because it depends on who a guy shares the court with, his role, the team system etc. But just for fun, I'll list last season's numbers for some guys we've discussed as Barnes replacements and you tell me who you think fits best.

Here are the per 36 numbers I'll focus on, starting with HB.

Harrison Barnes 37.4% 3P% (4.8 attempts), 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.8 spg, 52.2% FTr, 63.2% TS%, 17.1 USG, -1.5 DBPM

Possible replacements:

Player A: 37.2% 3P% (2.4 attempts), 8.4 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 1.6 spg 36.3% FTr, 70.3% TS%, 12.6% USG, +2.0 DBPM
Player B: 40.1% 3P% (5.8 attempts), 4.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.8 spg, 37.5% FTr, 60.5% TS%, 22.8% USG, -1.4 DBPM
Player C: 33.3% 3P% (7.7 attempts), 7.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 20.8% FTr, 54.4% TS%, 27.9% USG, -1.5 DBPM
Player D: 36.9% 3P% (6.9 attempts), 8.7 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.9 spg 30.4% FTr, 60.7% TS%, 18.1% USG, -0.9 DBPM
Player E: 30.5% 3P% (2.1 attempts), 8.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.8% FTr, 59.2% TS%, 13.2% USG, +2.6 DBPM
Player F: 35.8% 3P% (4.0 attempts), 5.2 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 1.4 spg, 20.6% FTr, 57.1%, TS%, 17.8% USG, +0.6 DBPM

Added:
Player G: 34.6% 3P% (6.2 attempts), 9.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.0% FTr, 61.7%, TS%, 24.8% USG, +0.8 DBPM
Player H: 39.5% 3P% (5.1 attempts), 6.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.7 spg, 25.6% FTr, 60.5%, TS%, 13.1% USG, +0.7 DBPM
Player I: 37.2% 3P% (7.3 attempts), 5.6 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 1.6 spg, 28.9% FTr, 61.0%, TS%, 21.1% USG, +0.6 DBPM



Without looking up who is who and just based on stats, who would you pick?
not a fan of the stats you used as they don’t account for role on the team which is a 3 and D player. I think GP, Defensive Rating, C&S 3%, Defense % delta and are more important for the role..

Here is what I see.
HB. 115.2 , 36.8 , -.7

Cam 17 / 25, 104 / 111.0 , 46.5 / 38.4, .0 /-2.9
Kuzma 64, 112.6, 33.8, -3.3
Collins 71, 115.2, 29.8, 1.3
Hart 51 / 28 , 114.5./111.2, 33.3/56.3 , 1.2/-.7
Grant 63 , 117.3, 39.3 , -1.2
George. 56, 112.5, 38.4 , .0

Looking at these numbers you can see why I want Cam Johnson and/or Jerami Grant. Both are a step up from HB in the 3 and D role.

I’m okay with offering Cam between 28-30 with a 15% trade kicker to make the Nets swallow hard if they are going to match.
 
Right. At least in terms of the starting 5 there are two options if the team wants to try and upgrade from Barnes. One is to put Keegan at the 4 and sign or trade for a 3. The other option is to have Keegan may the 3 and sign a 4.

If possible I prefer the second option because there's a greater chance of adding rebounding and rim protection from that pool of players.

But the Kings could go the other route. My top choice in that scenario is Josh Hart who looks to be on track to re-sign with the Knicks.

I don't think Khris Middleton is a realistic option (and even if he were, I'm not sure he should be a target given his cost vs his age and injury history) so then you're looking at guys like Bruce Brown.

Cam Johnson is a 3/4 and Grant Williams is more of a 4/3 so the pickings get pretty slim after that. Dillon Brooks? Talen Horton-Tucker?

Not a lot of starter quality 2/3s in free agency this year. I love Thybulle's defense but (a) he's restricted and (b) I think at this point no one can have confidence in him becoming a consistent enough shooter to stay on the floor.

I'm not sure if I'm missing any clear targets that would both be an upgrade from Barnes and are more of a 2/3 option.
I think Cam can defend the 3. Really if Kessler Edwards could up his percentage a couple points he would be perfect. That kid can defend.
 
I think its pretty obvious that we are most likely going after Kuzma in FA.

He sort of fits a need but at the very least he is another asset that can be added to the team for an upgrade down the track.
 
I think its pretty obvious that we are most likely going after Kuzma in FA.

He sort of fits a need but at the very least he is another asset that can be added to the team for an upgrade down the track.
I agree. We already know Monte likes him (because he already tried to trade for him). And we don’t have to give up anything to get him. Plus - he and Keegan would give us a ton of lineup flexibility - Vezenkov could sub out either player.

I think a trade for OG would cost too much. I could also see us taking on John Collins salary if Kuzma re-signs with DC.
 
I agree. We already know Monte likes him (because he already tried to trade for him). And we don’t have to give up anything to get him. Plus - he and Keegan would give us a ton of lineup flexibility - Vezenkov could sub out either player.

I think a trade for OG would cost too much. I could also see us taking on John Collins salary if Kuzma re-signs with DC.
Yeah, when you have this much cap space, you should be trying to add some players for free vs. selling off assets to trade for someone (we can always revisit those types of trades down the road when our cap is tied up). McNair should be looking to sign someone that will upgrade the roster (e.g., Grant), roll over the cap space to next year by giving out bloated expiring deals, or use it to bring in someone like Collins IF they return our 2024 1st (giving us maximum flexibility with our picks in future trades again).

I know Grant was once seen as an impact defender and that his defense has fallen off as his offensive game has continued to grow. He was a 1st option in Detroit and a 2nd option in Portland. Would he still be a 2nd option here? Would he be 3rd behind Fox & Sabonis/Murray? I guess the point is that we have some good talent on this team where he can afford to spend more energy defensively (since he won't have to carry as much of the load on offense).

And even if he doesn't return to that elite defender we saw in DEN during the regular season, I wouldn't be surprised to see his intensity turn up for the playoffs. For example, would I rather have an average regular season defender that tries his hardest on that side of the ball in the regular season, or would I rather have an average regular season defender that doesn't necessarily try his hardest on that side of the ball but that has the potential to be a great defender if the intensity was turned up?

This is sort of how I view Sabonis & Fox. I don't think there is another defensive level to Sabonis' game once he gets to the playoffs. The guy plays hard in the regular season and playoffs and his average defense is what it is. Then you have someone like Fox who can noticeably flip a switch in 4th quarters or in the playoffs and elevate his defense from average to great.

I wouldn't be surprised if Grant was more like Fox in that regard. Good enough to get by in the regular season but can be a defensive menace when the moment calls for it.