Josh really hasn’t been a bad shooter aside from the start of last season with the Blazers where he eventually just stopped taking them. He’s .350 for his career which isn’t exactly Steph out there but it’s only .028 worse than Harrison Barnes from the perimeter who was still getting left open from three in the playoffs anyways. It’s also better than what Kuzma shot from three over his career as well
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More than that, I think Barnes served his role with the Kings. They needed a steady vet with playoff (and championship) experience to help them finally reach the postseason. HB won't have a shortage of suitors since he works equally well as a reliable 4th or 5th option for a contending team or as a mentor for a young, upcoming team. But I think for the Kings to take the next step, replacing Barnes as a starter is the most clear route to help shore up some weaknesses.
I wouldn't be upset if he were re-signed and the Kings essentially ran it back, but there's an opportunity to get a better fit that also matches the Fox/Sabonis/Murrary timeline better.
One issue with Barnes and Murray as the starting forwards is that neither is a strong rebounder. I think Murray will continue to improve in this area, but last year HB averaged 4.9 rpg per 36 minutes and Keegan was only slightly better at 5.6 rpg per 36. Neither of them are rim protectors, but Barnes had moments of 1-on-1 creation that we hope Keegan develops. Which is why his struggles in the playoffs were so glaring. Outside of Fox and Monk, the Kings lack a guy who can get his own shot when needed.
So who represents a clear upgrade?
Pure statistical analysis (and per 36 numbers especially) never tell the full story because it depends on who a guy shares the court with, his role, the team system etc. But just for fun, I'll list last season's numbers for some guys we've discussed as Barnes replacements and you tell me who you think fits best.
Here are the per 36 numbers I'll focus on, starting with HB.
Harrison Barnes 37.4% 3P% (4.8 attempts), 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.8 spg, 52.2% FTr, 63.2% TS%, 17.1 USG, -1.5 DBPM
Possible replacements:
Player A: 37.2% 3P% (2.4 attempts), 8.4 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 1.6 spg 36.3% FTr, 70.3% TS%, 12.6% USG, +2.0 DBPM
Player B: 40.1% 3P% (5.8 attempts), 4.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.8 spg, 37.5% FTr, 60.5% TS%, 22.8% USG, -1.4 DBPM
Player C: 33.3% 3P% (7.7 attempts), 7.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 20.8% FTr, 54.4% TS%, 27.9% USG, -1.5 DBPM
Player D: 36.9% 3P% (6.9 attempts), 8.7 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.9 spg 30.4% FTr, 60.7% TS%, 18.1% USG, -0.9 DBPM
Player E: 30.5% 3P% (2.1 attempts), 8.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.8% FTr, 59.2% TS%, 13.2% USG, +2.6 DBPM
Player F: 35.8% 3P% (4.0 attempts), 5.2 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 1.4 spg, 20.6% FTr, 57.1%, TS%, 17.8% USG, +0.6 DBPM
Added:
Player G: 34.6% 3P% (6.2 attempts), 9.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.0% FTr, 61.7%, TS%, 24.8% USG, +0.8 DBPM
Player H: 39.5% 3P% (5.1 attempts), 6.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.7 spg, 25.6% FTr, 60.5%, TS%, 13.1% USG, +0.7 DBPM
Player I: 37.2% 3P% (7.3 attempts), 5.6 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 1.6 spg, 28.9% FTr, 61.0%, TS%, 21.1% USG, +0.6 DBPM
Without looking up who is who and just based on stats, who would you pick?
I wouldn't be upset if he were re-signed and the Kings essentially ran it back, but there's an opportunity to get a better fit that also matches the Fox/Sabonis/Murrary timeline better.
One issue with Barnes and Murray as the starting forwards is that neither is a strong rebounder. I think Murray will continue to improve in this area, but last year HB averaged 4.9 rpg per 36 minutes and Keegan was only slightly better at 5.6 rpg per 36. Neither of them are rim protectors, but Barnes had moments of 1-on-1 creation that we hope Keegan develops. Which is why his struggles in the playoffs were so glaring. Outside of Fox and Monk, the Kings lack a guy who can get his own shot when needed.
So who represents a clear upgrade?
Pure statistical analysis (and per 36 numbers especially) never tell the full story because it depends on who a guy shares the court with, his role, the team system etc. But just for fun, I'll list last season's numbers for some guys we've discussed as Barnes replacements and you tell me who you think fits best.
Here are the per 36 numbers I'll focus on, starting with HB.
Harrison Barnes 37.4% 3P% (4.8 attempts), 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.8 spg, 52.2% FTr, 63.2% TS%, 17.1 USG, -1.5 DBPM
Possible replacements:
Player A: 37.2% 3P% (2.4 attempts), 8.4 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 1.6 spg 36.3% FTr, 70.3% TS%, 12.6% USG, +2.0 DBPM
Player B: 40.1% 3P% (5.8 attempts), 4.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.8 spg, 37.5% FTr, 60.5% TS%, 22.8% USG, -1.4 DBPM
Player C: 33.3% 3P% (7.7 attempts), 7.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 20.8% FTr, 54.4% TS%, 27.9% USG, -1.5 DBPM
Player D: 36.9% 3P% (6.9 attempts), 8.7 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.9 spg 30.4% FTr, 60.7% TS%, 18.1% USG, -0.9 DBPM
Player E: 30.5% 3P% (2.1 attempts), 8.2 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.8% FTr, 59.2% TS%, 13.2% USG, +2.6 DBPM
Player F: 35.8% 3P% (4.0 attempts), 5.2 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 1.4 spg, 20.6% FTr, 57.1%, TS%, 17.8% USG, +0.6 DBPM
Added:
Player G: 34.6% 3P% (6.2 attempts), 9.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 1.2 spg, 22.0% FTr, 61.7%, TS%, 24.8% USG, +0.8 DBPM
Player H: 39.5% 3P% (5.1 attempts), 6.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.7 spg, 25.6% FTr, 60.5%, TS%, 13.1% USG, +0.7 DBPM
Player I: 37.2% 3P% (7.3 attempts), 5.6 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 1.6 spg, 28.9% FTr, 61.0%, TS%, 21.1% USG, +0.6 DBPM
Without looking up who is who and just based on stats, who would you pick?
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Fun, let me take a stab
Player A: Josh Hart?
Player B: Cam Johnson?
Placer C: Naz Reid?
Player D: Grant Williams?
Player E: Draymond Green?
Player F: Bruce Brown?
And the clear answer here would be Player A. Mega efficient, impacts defense, can space a bit, gets after it on the glass, doesn't take offensive possessions.
Player A: Josh Hart?
Player B: Cam Johnson?
Placer C: Naz Reid?
Player D: Grant Williams?
Player E: Draymond Green?
Player F: Bruce Brown?
And the clear answer here would be Player A. Mega efficient, impacts defense, can space a bit, gets after it on the glass, doesn't take offensive possessions.
Based on stats alone, I think Player D would be a solid fit. Above average 3pt shooting % with a really good TS%. They're also a very good rebounder. Usage is both good and bad. Lower usage might indicate that they might be more of an off-ball player? Nothing wrong with that because I think lower usage players would fit like a glove, but it'd put more pressure on Keegan to improve his on-ball scoring. The negative DBPM does stand out, but not a deal breaker.
Player A was a very close second, but the low 3PA and usage make me have doubts about the sample size of his 3pt %. His FTR is high, but the 3pt FGA is not. Maybe he's not a consisted shooter, or doesn't look for that shot enough.
Player A was a very close second, but the low 3PA and usage make me have doubts about the sample size of his 3pt %. His FTR is high, but the 3pt FGA is not. Maybe he's not a consisted shooter, or doesn't look for that shot enough.
One major caveat is that I didn't include APG which would have given away one player for sure and likely one or two others.
I'll let more people guess before revealing the answer, but I will say that even knowing who is who, looking at the stats changed my thinking on a couple options. Positively in some cases and negatively in others.
I'll let more people guess before revealing the answer, but I will say that even knowing who is who, looking at the stats changed my thinking on a couple options. Positively in some cases and negatively in others.
Without giving up the goose on the hidden names, I do find it telling how Josh Hart's assist numbers also immediately shot up after he was finally on a different team from Lonzo. Guy went from a big backup point guard who could board but not pass to a starting wing who both rebounds like a center and passes like a guard over the span of a single offseason.
Another note is that I didn't include OG Anunoby since it seems really unlikely that Toronto will trade him or that the Kings would be willing to meet the asking price if they did. But here's how he compares to Barnes for the same stats:
Harrison Barnes 37.4% 3P% (4.8 attempts), 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.8 spg, 52.2% FTr, 63.2% TS%, 17.1 USG, -1.5 DBPM
OG Anunoby 38.7% 3P% (5.5 attempts), 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.8 bpg, 1.9 spg, 18.9% FTr, 58.6% TS%, 19.5 USG, +0.7 DBPM
Harrison Barnes 37.4% 3P% (4.8 attempts), 4.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.8 spg, 52.2% FTr, 63.2% TS%, 17.1 USG, -1.5 DBPM
OG Anunoby 38.7% 3P% (5.5 attempts), 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.8 bpg, 1.9 spg, 18.9% FTr, 58.6% TS%, 19.5 USG, +0.7 DBPM
He's probably going to stay with the Nets, but what about a guy like Seth Curry? He is almost automatic when shooting open 3pt shots, and our guys are some of the best players at getting guards open on the wing. He would be here for a highly specified role though. Not saying we should start him by any means, because of his defense, but he's better than Terrence Davis in regards to getting open, and he shoots at a higher %.
I was kinda bummed when we let him go because the league at that time was moving to a small ball pass heavy and 3pt league. Curry ticks all the boxes except for defense. He's never averaged less than 40% on his 3pt shots and some years he's over 45% while taking up to six 3pt shots a game!
I was kinda bummed when we let him go because the league at that time was moving to a small ball pass heavy and 3pt league. Curry ticks all the boxes except for defense. He's never averaged less than 40% on his 3pt shots and some years he's over 45% while taking up to six 3pt shots a game!
At this point in time I'm up for signing Jerami Grant and Mo Wagner, and resign Lyles. We get an allstar with length and perimeter defense to pair with Sabonis, and a backup C with upside and aggressive play. Wagner has a decent 3 pointer as well for a C.
Fox-Heurter-Murray-Grant-Sabonis
Mitchell-Monk-Jones/Slawson-Lyles -Wagner
Or spend it all on Middleton
Fox-Heurter-Murray-Grant-Sabonis
Mitchell-Monk-Jones/Slawson-Lyles -Wagner
Or spend it all on Middleton
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Spoiler alert: If you still want to guess, don't read this post.
Answers:
Player A is Josh Hart
Player B is Jerami Grant
Player C is Kyle Kuzma
Player D is Trey Lyles
Player E is Draymond Green
Player F is Bruce Brown
Player G is Naz Reid
Player H is Grant Williams
Player I is Cam Johnson
What do I take away from this?
The most direct statistical replacement for Barnes is Cam Johnson. He adds more steals and a bit more positional versatility, while shooting a similar percentage from 3 on higher volume. He doesn't draw free throws as well as HB (nobody on this list is even close though) but Barnes himself really increased his FTr the last couple seasons so there's reason to hope Johnson and others here will similarly improve as they enter "crafty vet" territory in their careers. Johnson is 4 years younger than Barnes so he's closer to the Fox/Domas timeline, but he's still 27 and not likely to see major improvements at this point in his career.
Grant Williams won't turn 25 until after the start of next season so he's got a bit more of a chance to improve, especially with a bigger role and in the Sacramento offense. He's a slight upgrade from Barnes as both a shooter and a rebounder and the stats bear out what my eyes tell me - he's a better defender too. But Williams doesn't offer any additional positional versatility - probably less as I think he's strictly a big wing/4 who I wouldn't want playing small ball center or chasing around smaller/quicker wings or guards often. He struggled to see the floor in the first two playoff series this year and while he got roughly his normal minutes against the Heat, he didn't really step up there either. Do the Kings want to gamble that he'll be better with bigger minutes and a starting role?
Josh Hart wasn't a big consideration for me so far this offseason because I assumed that he was re-signing with the Knicks and not a legitimate target for the Kings. That may still be the case, but his numbers are eyepopping even when you know going in that he's a good passer and strong rebounder. He'd give a Kings team with a potential glut of 4/5 guys and some smaller guards a LOT of positional versatility as a 2/3 wing. Tough defender, efficient scorer and just a guy does a lot well, though his outside shooting volume is a bit of a concern. I'm much more open to pursuing him than I was before.
I'd almost talked myself into Kuzma. McNair likes him, some of his advanced stats look good, he's a strong rebounder and an underrated playmaker etc. But he's really inefficient as a scorer and doesn't get to the line a lot. Those are both big deals IMO. The argument could be made that he'll be more efficient on a better team with a more defined role, but I don't see it. Part of why the Kings offense worked so well is that so many guys (HB, but also Huerter, Murray, Sabonis, Monk, Lyles etc) were willing to pass up a decent shot to make the extra pass for someone else to have a better one. I'm not sure you'll see that as much with Kuzma. I think he'll take a lot of those decent shots because that's how he plays.
I was already not on board with throwing a big deal at Jerami Grant and while he had the best 3P% of the guys on this list last season, his anemic rebounding (I knew it was low but I didn't realize it was that low), high usage rate and poor defensive metrics just soured me on the idea even further.
Draymond is Draymond. You'd sacrifice spacing for defensive improvement. The bigger issue for me is that Sabonis is already the offensive hub which doesn't leave Green a clear role on offense. I think Brown would have to stagger their minutes a lot to both guys play to their strengths and IMO I don't see why you'd give a $100M contract to a 33 year old Draymond if he's not a great fit with one of your two cornerstones. He'd absolutely improve the defense and give the team more of an edge. That's the only real counterargument I see.
I think collectively we underrate Lyles. Based just on the numbers he'd likely be my 2nd or 3rd pick from this list. But the more I think about it, the Kings should either re-sign him OR sign Reid, but not both. Lyles is a big wing/4 who has shown flashes of being a good smallball 5. Reid is a 5 who has shown flashes of working as a big wing/4. Either could be hugely valuable, but I see both as being redundant unless there are injuries. Reid gets a bump for being significantly younger and likely capable of more improvement. Lyles gets a bump for already showing how well he fits with the existing roster. Neither is a guy that you want battling Embiid or Jokic but I'd be happy with either. Personally I'd give a slight edge to Lyles, but I can see the argument for going with Reid instead.
To me Bruce Brown doesn't make a ton of sense for this team. He's a good defender, but I wouldn't want him on big wings like LeBron, Durant, Paul George, Kawhi, MPJ or Aaron Gordon, Luka, etc. He's much more of a SG that can flex to SF, but I'd rather have Josh Hart in that case. He's a good rebounder for a 2/3 but not a clear improvement on HB and not one of the better shooters on this list. He shoots a decent percentage on lower volume than everyone except Hart and Draymond.
In short, Hart to me seems like a clear upgrade from HB but beyond that it's pretty murky. But I hope this team has either Lyles or Reid on it next season.
Answers:
Player A is Josh Hart
Player B is Jerami Grant
Player C is Kyle Kuzma
Player D is Trey Lyles
Player E is Draymond Green
Player F is Bruce Brown
Player G is Naz Reid
Player H is Grant Williams
Player I is Cam Johnson
What do I take away from this?
The most direct statistical replacement for Barnes is Cam Johnson. He adds more steals and a bit more positional versatility, while shooting a similar percentage from 3 on higher volume. He doesn't draw free throws as well as HB (nobody on this list is even close though) but Barnes himself really increased his FTr the last couple seasons so there's reason to hope Johnson and others here will similarly improve as they enter "crafty vet" territory in their careers. Johnson is 4 years younger than Barnes so he's closer to the Fox/Domas timeline, but he's still 27 and not likely to see major improvements at this point in his career.
Grant Williams won't turn 25 until after the start of next season so he's got a bit more of a chance to improve, especially with a bigger role and in the Sacramento offense. He's a slight upgrade from Barnes as both a shooter and a rebounder and the stats bear out what my eyes tell me - he's a better defender too. But Williams doesn't offer any additional positional versatility - probably less as I think he's strictly a big wing/4 who I wouldn't want playing small ball center or chasing around smaller/quicker wings or guards often. He struggled to see the floor in the first two playoff series this year and while he got roughly his normal minutes against the Heat, he didn't really step up there either. Do the Kings want to gamble that he'll be better with bigger minutes and a starting role?
Josh Hart wasn't a big consideration for me so far this offseason because I assumed that he was re-signing with the Knicks and not a legitimate target for the Kings. That may still be the case, but his numbers are eyepopping even when you know going in that he's a good passer and strong rebounder. He'd give a Kings team with a potential glut of 4/5 guys and some smaller guards a LOT of positional versatility as a 2/3 wing. Tough defender, efficient scorer and just a guy does a lot well, though his outside shooting volume is a bit of a concern. I'm much more open to pursuing him than I was before.
I'd almost talked myself into Kuzma. McNair likes him, some of his advanced stats look good, he's a strong rebounder and an underrated playmaker etc. But he's really inefficient as a scorer and doesn't get to the line a lot. Those are both big deals IMO. The argument could be made that he'll be more efficient on a better team with a more defined role, but I don't see it. Part of why the Kings offense worked so well is that so many guys (HB, but also Huerter, Murray, Sabonis, Monk, Lyles etc) were willing to pass up a decent shot to make the extra pass for someone else to have a better one. I'm not sure you'll see that as much with Kuzma. I think he'll take a lot of those decent shots because that's how he plays.
I was already not on board with throwing a big deal at Jerami Grant and while he had the best 3P% of the guys on this list last season, his anemic rebounding (I knew it was low but I didn't realize it was that low), high usage rate and poor defensive metrics just soured me on the idea even further.
Draymond is Draymond. You'd sacrifice spacing for defensive improvement. The bigger issue for me is that Sabonis is already the offensive hub which doesn't leave Green a clear role on offense. I think Brown would have to stagger their minutes a lot to both guys play to their strengths and IMO I don't see why you'd give a $100M contract to a 33 year old Draymond if he's not a great fit with one of your two cornerstones. He'd absolutely improve the defense and give the team more of an edge. That's the only real counterargument I see.
I think collectively we underrate Lyles. Based just on the numbers he'd likely be my 2nd or 3rd pick from this list. But the more I think about it, the Kings should either re-sign him OR sign Reid, but not both. Lyles is a big wing/4 who has shown flashes of being a good smallball 5. Reid is a 5 who has shown flashes of working as a big wing/4. Either could be hugely valuable, but I see both as being redundant unless there are injuries. Reid gets a bump for being significantly younger and likely capable of more improvement. Lyles gets a bump for already showing how well he fits with the existing roster. Neither is a guy that you want battling Embiid or Jokic but I'd be happy with either. Personally I'd give a slight edge to Lyles, but I can see the argument for going with Reid instead.
To me Bruce Brown doesn't make a ton of sense for this team. He's a good defender, but I wouldn't want him on big wings like LeBron, Durant, Paul George, Kawhi, MPJ or Aaron Gordon, Luka, etc. He's much more of a SG that can flex to SF, but I'd rather have Josh Hart in that case. He's a good rebounder for a 2/3 but not a clear improvement on HB and not one of the better shooters on this list. He shoots a decent percentage on lower volume than everyone except Hart and Draymond.
In short, Hart to me seems like a clear upgrade from HB but beyond that it's pretty murky. But I hope this team has either Lyles or Reid on it next season.
that’s true if you think HB is your third option. I personally don’t. In fact I don’t think it’s out of the question he is your 5th option if brought back. 5th option forwards who shoot efficiently, get to the line at an elite rate, are durable and fit chemistry are worth a lot to a team.
HB is catching strays for his playoff performance but only one player on the kings had a great series: Fox. Two guys played above average for their role: Monk and Davion. 3 played below expectations: Domas, HB and Huerter. 1 played below expectations for the first half and than above for the remainder of the series: Keegan
HB is catching strays for his playoff performance but only one player on the kings had a great series: Fox. Two guys played above average for their role: Monk and Davion. 3 played below expectations: Domas, HB and Huerter. 1 played below expectations for the first half and than above for the remainder of the series: Keegan
Excellent post. Really reaffirms my initial read of this class that Naz should be our target. I think he does a few things; he secures an actual back-up for Domas and fills the largest hole on the team. He gives you a real upside young guy that honestly shouldn't be available in UFA; and makes up for not having that prospect at 24 this year. Domas just can't be 6th in the NBA in minutes next season; getting him to the playoffs more rested and healthier absolutely needs to be a priority.
I don't think Naz and Lyles are redundant at all; especially if you really believe in Naz as a true 4/5 flex. The Kings have exactly one big on the roster lol. That's why I think he could absolutely work; I don't need 30+ MPG of him at the 4, I need 12-15. And then he effectively acts as Domas's back-up at the 5. And then for the other 30ish minutes available at the 4, you work in Lyles/Vezenkov/Keegan, etc.
I don't think Naz and Lyles are redundant at all; especially if you really believe in Naz as a true 4/5 flex. The Kings have exactly one big on the roster lol. That's why I think he could absolutely work; I don't need 30+ MPG of him at the 4, I need 12-15. And then he effectively acts as Domas's back-up at the 5. And then for the other 30ish minutes available at the 4, you work in Lyles/Vezenkov/Keegan, etc.
Yeah, I think so too. There's hidden offensive star potential with him. Putting my film bro hat on for a minute, Naz just really pops every time he's given the minutes to be on the floor. He's got a super advanced arsenal of scoring moves that most dudes 6'10 just don't have access to. Very athletic and fluid on the floor and an incredibly tough cover for most 4's and 5's.
I'm just imagining him with that Fox/Monk start of the 2nd LU and in place of where Metu/Holmes/Len played this season. He would be absolutely dominant working off them. The 4/5 flex experiement is a risk, but if you get him at the right cost, you're still fine because you can just keep him as a 15ish MPG elite reserve behind Domas to keep him. And the pay-off is that he's able to thrive as a big 4, in a league where only AD and JJJ still remain in that slot, and give us a major major advantage vs most other teams.
I'm just imagining him with that Fox/Monk start of the 2nd LU and in place of where Metu/Holmes/Len played this season. He would be absolutely dominant working off them. The 4/5 flex experiement is a risk, but if you get him at the right cost, you're still fine because you can just keep him as a 15ish MPG elite reserve behind Domas to keep him. And the pay-off is that he's able to thrive as a big 4, in a league where only AD and JJJ still remain in that slot, and give us a major major advantage vs most other teams.
I admittedly have watched like 7 Naz Reid games, but is he really THAT much slower laterally than HB these days? I don't think so tbh. And again, I don't need 30+ of Naz/Sabonis on the floor together, I need 12-15. That seems very doable, especially if Naz keeps ascending and getting better as I expect him to do.
And offensively, I think it works great. Naz is someone who wants to start outside, get downhill and attack you at the rim. He's not some post-up big, although that is part of his game. I know Jerami Grant is a popular name and it'd be basically the same role you'd give him that you'd have Naz do.
And offensively, I think it works great. Naz is someone who wants to start outside, get downhill and attack you at the rim. He's not some post-up big, although that is part of his game. I know Jerami Grant is a popular name and it'd be basically the same role you'd give him that you'd have Naz do.
