Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
Collins, playing for a lottery team in Utah, seems to be happy to NOT be traded to a probable playoff team in Sacramento, to play with Fox + Sabonis + DeRozan, etc.
I swear, when this team finally wins a championship, the 30-for-30 documentary is going to have to be 6 hours long just to provide sufficient context of how absolutely badly this fanbase has been dragged through the mud for like half a century.
I swear, when this team finally wins a championship, the 30-for-30 documentary is going to have to be 6 hours long just to provide sufficient context of how absolutely badly this fanbase has been dragged through the mud for like half a century.
For the life of me I cannot understand why Cam Johnson “seems” to have higher trade value than John Collins. They’re paid around the same and are comparable; Collins archetype though (shooter, roll man, strong rebounder, passable rim protection) is much harder to acquire though. Kings should be ecstatic if they get him for spare parts & just 1 future first imo. He’ll instantly be their 4th best, most valuable player in my opinion and maybe even 3rd over Monk.
What's the word from? Could be true but I'm familiar with Collins a bit cause I followed the Hawks a decent amount couple years ago. He doesn't strike me at all as a low IQ guy; in fact quite the opposite. I think he makes the right play a lot, especially offensively, that's why he's so efficient partly.
Or sometimes because if you're making short term moves for certain players, killing your future makes no sense. People seriously underrate how much that 31' pick swap hurts. DeMar is a good player, and a good signing for that pick, but geez, no more. Yes, Cam unprotected vs. Collins protected is no contest (Collins >>> Cam) but in the end unnecessary all the way around.
I know there was a report that Vivek was flying out to OKC to try and convince Fox to stay with SAC long term. Even if the chance of him staying with us is very slim, Vivek’s lip service isn’t going to get it done. Vivek is going to need to show/prove it with actions.
With that in mind, what move would be big enough to convince him to stay? I don’t think guys like Cam Johnson, John Collins, etc. are significant game changers from Fox’s POV (especially at this point). It would probably have to be a pitch of “if we can add X star next to you and Sabonis, would you extend with us?”
If that’s ultimately the pitch Vivek is making, which star talent could we acquire that would…
From my POV, the only players that might qualify as stars and be available for trade are…
So that leaves Brandon Ingram or Lauri Markkanen as the potential “stars” that could be acquired in an attempt to make Fox happy and have him sign long term. However, advanced impact stats show that one of these players is much more impactful…
VPM: Lauri = 55th / Ingram = 168th
EPM: Lauri = 34th / Ingram = 122nd
LEBRON: Lauri = 195th / Ingram = 462nd
DARKO: Lauri = 90th / Ingram = 120th
2Y RAPM: Lauri = 22nd / Ingram = 209th
…and if we average those ranks across the 5 metrics, it comes out to…
AVERAGE: Lauri = 79th / Ingram = 216th
As you can see, it appears that Markkanen is a better, more impactful player than Ingram.
As for the fit between these two players, I also have Markkanen as the better fit. Both Fox and Sabonis are at their best with the ball in their hands. Markkanen is excellent off the ball and has a relatively low USG% for a “star” player. Also, Markkanen’s size gives us a big, strong PF to put between Murray and Sabonis; whereas, an Ingram, Murray, & Sabonis frontcourt would still be susceptible to being overpowered by bigger, stronger PFs somewhat.
Having said all of that, we’d have to consider how much we’d need to surrender in a trade to acquire either of these guys.
We can’t trade for Markkanen this year since he just signed his extension with UTA, but we could trade for him in the offseason. However, he will have 4 more years left on his deal and Ainge will not let him go unless he gets a huge haul of picks/swaps.
We can trade for Ingram now, and he wouldn’t cost nearly as much to acquire as Markkanen would (allowing us to keep a lot more of our future 1sts). However, that’s largely due to the fact that Ingram is a UFA this season and he is reportedly seeking a max contract this offseason (~$50 mil/year). Considering his impact on the floor, the desire for that type of contract is likely also driving his trade value down.
So what would you rather have?
In either of these scenarios (trading for Ingram at the deadline or Markkanen in the offseason), we could still combine that with a trade for Cam Johnson & Day’Ron Sharpe, but it would result in us moving DeRozan, Monk, Huerter, & Lyles to make salaries work. Below would be the two 2025-26 rotations depending on if we trade for Markkanen or Ingram…
PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Jones
SF - Murray / Johnson
PF - Markkanen
C - Sabonis / Sharpe
PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Jones
SF - Ingram / Johnson
PF - Murray
C - Sabonis / Sharpe
Obviously, this all depends on where Fox’s head is at and if he’s even open to this to begin with. Maybe he signals to Vivek/the FO that he’s not interested in adding Markkanen but really likes the idea of adding Ingram. We then say “okay, we’ll try to trade for him at the deadline and will work hard to resign him, and if we can’t get him for whatever reason or we can’t resign him after trading for him, we’ll mutually agree to move on and trade you.” Or if Fox says that he’s not interested in Ingram but really likes the idea of adding Markkanen to the core, we then say “okay we’ll try to trade for him in the offseason, and if we can’t get him for whatever reason, we’ll mutually agree to move on and trade you.”
Personally, I really would love to see Fox surrounded by the elite shooting of Ellis, Johnson, Murray, & Markkanen while having an elite screening/passing C in Sabonis to free him up (and Sabonis is no slouch from 3 either). The paint has been far too congested this year which makes Fox’s life wayyyy harder than it needs to be, but what do you expect when you have guys like Monk, Huerter, DeRozan, Murrray, & Lyles who are all shooting between 30-34% from 3 on the year? How is that roster complementing Fox’s offensive game? Swapping in two elite, volume, movement shooters in Johnson and Markkanen (while opening up more minutes for Ellis to play who is shooting 43.5% from 3 on 6.3 3PA per36 min) is really going to space the floor and allow Fox to do what he does best.
A big 3 of Fox, Markkanen, and Sabonis would be super effective, and you’d still have secondary scorers like Johnson, Murray, and Carter (if he develops on that end) to help fill in the gaps.
Defensively, a Markkanen & Sabonis frontcourt isn’t ideal but at least we’d no longer be small upfront and they’d be a terrific rebounding duo to help limit 2nd chance points. And we’d still have a fair amount of defensive talent in Fox, Ellis, Carter, Johnson, Murray, & Sharpe to help us try and at least be a top 10-15 defense.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this ship has sailed at this point and all of this is moot, but if I’m Fox and I’m wanting to win, be “the man” on a winning team, and be in a position to post great numbers to get all star/all nba accolades, having…
With that in mind, what move would be big enough to convince him to stay? I don’t think guys like Cam Johnson, John Collins, etc. are significant game changers from Fox’s POV (especially at this point). It would probably have to be a pitch of “if we can add X star next to you and Sabonis, would you extend with us?”
If that’s ultimately the pitch Vivek is making, which star talent could we acquire that would…
- Be available for a trade
- Complement Fox’s game and fits with the rest of the core roster
- Convince Fox that the team would be talented enough to be a perennial playoff threat throughout the prime of his career
From my POV, the only players that might qualify as stars and be available for trade are…
- Zach LaVine (29)
- Jimmy Butler (35)
- Khris Middleton (33)
- Julius Randle (30)
- Dejounte Murray (28)
- Brandon Ingram (27)
- Zion Williamson (24)
- Bradley Beal (31)
- Lauri Markkanen (27)
- Zach LaVine: Not the best fit since we’re loaded at guard already and at 29 with his surgery/injury history, will he be able to be a significant contributor throughout Fox’s prime? I don’t think he’s convincing Fox.
- Jimmy Butler: At 35, he’s too old to help Fox compete throughout his prime. He’s also not much of a floor spacer which Fox really needs around him.
- Khris Middleton: At 33, he’s too old to help Fox compete throughout his prime.
- Julius Randle: Not the best fit since he’s not much of a floor spacer (something Fox really needs around him), and at 30, will he be able to be a significant contributor throughout Fox’s prime? I don’t think he’s convincing Fox.
- Dejounte Murray: Not the best fit since we’re loaded at guard already and he’s not much of a floor spacer (something Fox really needs around him)
- Brandon Ingram: Could be a decent fit next to Fox since he can play at the forward spot, is a good shooter from 3, and is young enough to be a contributor throughout Fox’s prime
- Zion Williamson: Not the best fit next to Fox since he’s essentially not a threat from outside at all and is very paint dominant. That’ll make Fox’s job more difficult when the ball is in his hands.
- Bradley Beal: Not the best fit since we’re loaded at guard already and at 31 with his injury history, will he be able to be a significant contributor throughout Fox’s prime? I don’t think he’s convincing Fox.
- Lauri Markkanen: Could be a decent fit next to Fox since he can play at the forward spot, is a good shooter from 3, and is young enough to be a contributor throughout Fox’s prime
So that leaves Brandon Ingram or Lauri Markkanen as the potential “stars” that could be acquired in an attempt to make Fox happy and have him sign long term. However, advanced impact stats show that one of these players is much more impactful…
VPM: Lauri = 55th / Ingram = 168th
EPM: Lauri = 34th / Ingram = 122nd
LEBRON: Lauri = 195th / Ingram = 462nd
DARKO: Lauri = 90th / Ingram = 120th
2Y RAPM: Lauri = 22nd / Ingram = 209th
…and if we average those ranks across the 5 metrics, it comes out to…
AVERAGE: Lauri = 79th / Ingram = 216th
As you can see, it appears that Markkanen is a better, more impactful player than Ingram.
As for the fit between these two players, I also have Markkanen as the better fit. Both Fox and Sabonis are at their best with the ball in their hands. Markkanen is excellent off the ball and has a relatively low USG% for a “star” player. Also, Markkanen’s size gives us a big, strong PF to put between Murray and Sabonis; whereas, an Ingram, Murray, & Sabonis frontcourt would still be susceptible to being overpowered by bigger, stronger PFs somewhat.
Having said all of that, we’d have to consider how much we’d need to surrender in a trade to acquire either of these guys.
We can’t trade for Markkanen this year since he just signed his extension with UTA, but we could trade for him in the offseason. However, he will have 4 more years left on his deal and Ainge will not let him go unless he gets a huge haul of picks/swaps.
We can trade for Ingram now, and he wouldn’t cost nearly as much to acquire as Markkanen would (allowing us to keep a lot more of our future 1sts). However, that’s largely due to the fact that Ingram is a UFA this season and he is reportedly seeking a max contract this offseason (~$50 mil/year). Considering his impact on the floor, the desire for that type of contract is likely also driving his trade value down.
So what would you rather have?
- Markkanen (a better fitting player who is more impactful on the court) making $50 mil/year?
- Ingram (a worse fitting player who is less impactful on the court) making $50 mil/year and ~3 additional 1st round picks in the future?
In either of these scenarios (trading for Ingram at the deadline or Markkanen in the offseason), we could still combine that with a trade for Cam Johnson & Day’Ron Sharpe, but it would result in us moving DeRozan, Monk, Huerter, & Lyles to make salaries work. Below would be the two 2025-26 rotations depending on if we trade for Markkanen or Ingram…
PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Jones
SF - Murray / Johnson
PF - Markkanen
C - Sabonis / Sharpe
PG - Fox / Carter
SG - Ellis / Jones
SF - Ingram / Johnson
PF - Murray
C - Sabonis / Sharpe
Obviously, this all depends on where Fox’s head is at and if he’s even open to this to begin with. Maybe he signals to Vivek/the FO that he’s not interested in adding Markkanen but really likes the idea of adding Ingram. We then say “okay, we’ll try to trade for him at the deadline and will work hard to resign him, and if we can’t get him for whatever reason or we can’t resign him after trading for him, we’ll mutually agree to move on and trade you.” Or if Fox says that he’s not interested in Ingram but really likes the idea of adding Markkanen to the core, we then say “okay we’ll try to trade for him in the offseason, and if we can’t get him for whatever reason, we’ll mutually agree to move on and trade you.”
Personally, I really would love to see Fox surrounded by the elite shooting of Ellis, Johnson, Murray, & Markkanen while having an elite screening/passing C in Sabonis to free him up (and Sabonis is no slouch from 3 either). The paint has been far too congested this year which makes Fox’s life wayyyy harder than it needs to be, but what do you expect when you have guys like Monk, Huerter, DeRozan, Murrray, & Lyles who are all shooting between 30-34% from 3 on the year? How is that roster complementing Fox’s offensive game? Swapping in two elite, volume, movement shooters in Johnson and Markkanen (while opening up more minutes for Ellis to play who is shooting 43.5% from 3 on 6.3 3PA per36 min) is really going to space the floor and allow Fox to do what he does best.
A big 3 of Fox, Markkanen, and Sabonis would be super effective, and you’d still have secondary scorers like Johnson, Murray, and Carter (if he develops on that end) to help fill in the gaps.
Defensively, a Markkanen & Sabonis frontcourt isn’t ideal but at least we’d no longer be small upfront and they’d be a terrific rebounding duo to help limit 2nd chance points. And we’d still have a fair amount of defensive talent in Fox, Ellis, Carter, Johnson, Murray, & Sharpe to help us try and at least be a top 10-15 defense.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this ship has sailed at this point and all of this is moot, but if I’m Fox and I’m wanting to win, be “the man” on a winning team, and be in a position to post great numbers to get all star/all nba accolades, having…
- Elite shooting and floor spacing around me to make it easier to break down a defense and score in the paint (or to bump my assists up with drive and kicks)
- An elite screen setter and passing C next to me to free me up and make it easier for me to score
- Two complementary stars around me (Sabonis & Markkanen) to force teams to not solely fixate on stopping me
- Two elite PG/SG defenders next to me (Ellis & Carter) allowing me to exert more energy offensively
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^^^ Good idea above. Partly why I like the idea of John Collins too. I think Utah just really wants to keep Markanan at this point or at minimum they’d want 2 pieces for their future and picks (So like Murray, Carter, + picks). Sabonis’ ability to open up paint with his 3-point shooting is something they really gotta maximize with this roster, can another paint attacker or at least keep the paint open & prioritize shooters.