MOCK DRAFTS: consensus from the experts?

This has become a good thought provoking thread about Kings current "BIGS" and the potential for Hibbert or Ajinca at #12. Brad had one of his best years ever but can he do that for 1 or 2 more years? One yes, two maybe.

Hawes is not ready to start yet. If the Kings upgrade a bit and start to look like a 50 win team with the core starters, Hawes gets the major minutes off the bench at the 4-5. Then lets stretch a bit and guess that Shelden gets backup minutes at the 4. Or does a Hibbert/Ajinca eat into Shelden's minutes? One can only guess at this juncture.

The key is Brad. He has this and one more year at $11.3M and $12.2M with no options, player or team, beyond 09/10. Never known as an athletic BIG, he became the passing center with a high post game that grew out of the Vlade days and the pinnacle of the Kings in 00-03. My view has always been, does his offensive/passing game overcome his severe defensive weaknesses? And Mikki is no threat to the west to stop the drivers to the basket for layup drills so many teams put on the Kings. Maybe the time is now to get a BIG who can be dominant in the middle defensively and put a team around the 5 spot that can once again score on the west teams? Both starters and bench?

This is a toughie. Almost as tough as what to do if Alexander falls in their laps at #12. I'd take him in a NY minute and let he, Cicso and Salmons fight for minutes at the 2-3 rotation. But Alexander is physically more like RonRon than the other 2.

Blubby de blub.............
 
all these talks about so many possible picks that could fall to us has me excited...but alil scared of what petrie will do. all of us have picks in mind and valid reasons why whether it be due to position needs or best player available. but i just cant help thinking of the 06 draft when everyone knew we needed a pg, yet we passed up on rajon rondo, marcus williams and jordan farmar, and picked quincy douby. dont get me wrong, douby hasnt been given a chance to produce but personally, picking him came out of no where when the other 3 were on the board. :o
 
Yeah, the lesson from that 06 draft is, when you hear the rumors that somebody had an amazing workout in Sacramento and the Kings are in love with him even though nobody else seems to be, believe the rumors!
 
I wouldn't expect Brad to stay on past his contract, but he will be here until it expires. I wouldn't expect Mikki Moore to stay on either, his contract will expire the same time as Brad's.

If Hawes continues to develop then he will most likely take over Brad's spot, that means the Kings need to have a PF ready. I still don't think Sheldon Williams will be that PF. The Kings could try to grab Arthur or Speights, hopefully not Arthur.

CruzDude, what do you like about Alexander, he has seemed a bit overrated to me but maybe I'm missing something?
 
Jerichoholic said:
CruzDude, what do you like about Alexander, he has seemed a bit overrated to me but maybe I'm missing something?
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i dunno about cruzdude, but the info as well as the video here opened my eyes to alexander. i know others have actually seen some of the picks in person so they can make better judgements than ones based off a draft site and hype video, but its just been so long since ive seen someone who can finish this well on the kings roster.

http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/joealexander.html
 
I think theres no doubt that the hope of the kings on draft day is having either westbrook or Dj A. drop to us... although that could happen plan B is drafting a down the line in 2-3 years starting PF... Hibbert missed his chance to be on this team and i think that it is way better for us that we got Hawes over him... I think if Hawes gets and stays serious about getting stronger and faster... then he could be an all-star with his b-ball IQ and skills. Hibbert will probably continue to battle with weight issues and will most likely fall into the Big Man bust group...
 
Well, let us not forget that Motumbo was a bust the first year or two he was in the league. Georgetown centers all seem to, eventually, become above average to all-star quality after a few years. Plus a major defensive force in the middle is something the Kings have never had. Vlade was good but he was far more clever than a dominating force in the middle.

As to Alexander, I'm a prolific reader of sports media and deal with rumors, whether about potential NBA players or high tech business dealings, the same way. First, I believe nothing I hear and only half of what I see. But if I hear very nearly the exact same view on a player from a minimum of 3 "respectable" media sources and/or GM's or Player Personnel types, then I start to believe it. In Alexander's case it was 6 sources that chimed in with similar comments and 3 were team guys (not GP of course!).

Alexander was under the radar until mid-way through Orlando. Then workout tid-bits started showing up as to his athleticism, nose for the basket, scoring abilities from most everywhere, his vertical (2nd or 3rd highest of all!!) and his skills testing. Then his comments during his Sacramento workout about how he has followed the Kings and loved them since JWill (also from West Virginia) and CWebb days and how he would really like to play here seemed honest and enthusiastic. No other Kings workout came anywhere near those comments or enthusiasm.

If, as I said before, Westbrook and Augustin and the top PG's are off the board by #12 and Alexander is available, I take him, but................. hmm.
 
MassachusettsKingsFan said:
say we draft augustin or westbrook .. do we resign beno? i say no but i can see petrie resigning him ..
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In Augustin you get a tiny 5'11" PG and in Westbrook a much bigger guy who is a combo guard - neither likely able to start right away in the NBA for whoever takes them. Obviously, the Kings have to start somebody at PG and Beno is a proven contributor who should get better with a full training camp and his first full season of play in Sac. Signing Beno simply is a must unless Petrie can go out into the free agent market and find a replacement at least as good - NOT EASY.
 
If Alexander is on the board theres no doubt we should take him. Artest will most likely be gone soon so why not. Alexander/Garcia is a great SF rotation for the future.
 
Personally, Hibbert was the guy I wanted the Kings to draft last year. But since he went back to G-Town and Hawes got drafted, I would still like to see the Kings draft Hibbert. Just not at 12 because that is a reach. If they can somehow package a deal with a player and one/both of their second rounders to get to the mid-1st, Hibbert would be an ideal pick. I'd love for the Kings to get beefier up front and interior defense. As for the 12th pick, there is just too many possibilities on who the Kings can draft. I would like to see a PG that can create plays or a SF with tremendous athleticism. I'd like to see a little more excitement on the Kings side with amazing dunks and great passing, just like the old days.
 
Hibbert would be an interesting choice, and I agree a reach at 12, but then, Douby was certainly a reach as was Peja at the time. As far as Hibbert is concerned, remember that there have been a lot of very good so called unathletic bigs. Sabonis and Valde come immediately to mind. Dave Cowens wasn't the most athletic guy in the world, nor was Robert Parrish.

One thing I hope everyone has, regardless of who we pick, especially if its a big man, is patience. It takes most big men at least three years in the league to develop. Obviously, some are quicker than others, but most aren't. The Warriors gave up on Robert Parrish after a couple of years and lived to regret it. But then the Warriors traded away some guy named Wilt too, so they had a lot of pratice at it.

One other thing about Hibbert. He has a very good work ethic, and if memory serves, he, like Alexander has had a short organized basketball career, so the learning curve is still high.
 
There are two big centers with the skills (and rebounding patheticness) that Petrie likes in this draft: Kosta Koufas and Roy Hibbert. Either might be a reach or us at 12, although Koufas is a possibility. But if it were not for Geoff's historical reluctance to make moves on draft day, I would not be shocked to see one or the other end up as a King. Would make sense -- combining with Hawes to give us 48 minutes of young centers with the skills we like for a long time into the future, providing insurance in case either the new kid or Spenser does not develop as we'd like (or Spenser's knee holds him back), making Brad truly expendable, and insuring that we would maintain our softness for many years to come. These are estimable goals.
 
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Bricklayer said:
There are two big centers with the skills (and rebounding patheticness) that Petrie likes in this draft: Kosta Koufas and Roy Hibbert. Either might be a reach or us at 12, although Koufas is a possibility. But if it were not for Geoff's historical reluctance to make moves on draft day, I would not be shocked to see one or the other end up as a King. Would make sense -- combining with Hawes to give us 48 minutes of young centers with the skills we like for a long time into the future, providing insurance in case either the new kid or Spenser does not develop as we'd like (or Spenser's knee holds him back), making Brad truly expendable, and insuring that we would maintain our softness for many years to come. These are estimable goals.
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I agree 100% ( I hate that 110% crap. There isn't 110% of anything. anyway I digress. ) I was reluctant to bring up Koufas, but he is the type of player along with Ajinca, that Petrie likes, and I think has more skills than he showed in one year of college. Well I don't totally agree on that softness part. So, let me think, maybe thats 79%. Hmmm. Back to the drawing board for more math..
 
I actually don't think Koufus is all that soft, despite being a Euro. He doesn't shy away from contact, unlike Hibbert. He would be a serious stretch at #12, but if we were to add a pick or something I wouldn't be upset.
 
BritishColumbia said:
That Euro talk is getting old and boring; plus Koufus was born and raised in the USA.
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Still awaiting the first badass physical Euro to make the talk go away. The Argentinians are almost uniformly scrappy (if floppy), but its hard to ignore the habitual (and ingrained -- its a coaching/basketball culture thing) finesse of the vast majority of Euro big men. Doesn't suffice as a scouting report in and of itself, but there is certainly always that suspicion until we see that first pioneer. For some reason I'm thinking maybe he'll be Russian -- some big ole blown up AK47-with-muscles brute who gobbles boards and takes a sinister pleasure in splatting driving guards. :D
 
Bricklayer said:
Still awaiting the first badass physical Euro to make the talk go away. The Argentinians are almost uniformly scrappy (if floppy), but its hard to ignore the habitual (and ingrained -- its a coaching/basketball culture thing) finesse of the vast majority of Euro big men. Doesn't suffice as a scouting report in and of itself, but there is certainly always that suspicion until we see that first pioneer. For some reason I'm thinking maybe he'll be Russian -- some big ole blown up AK47-with-muscles brute who gobbles boards and takes a sinister pleasure in splatting driving guards. :D
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I'm curious as to what you mean. How do you define "badass"? Their have been plenty of European big men who can hold their own physicality wise in the NBA. Are you speaking strictly defensive agressiveness, in terms of rebounding and/or blocking? I can name plenty of Euros who have done quite well in that department. Or are you talking in terms of athletic ability? 'Cause if you are, that has zit to do with where you come from, and has more to do with "race", which I know isn't a talked-about subject here. Their is nothing in the water here which makes us less physical than Americans. It has more to do with the fact that their are more black people in the US, and black people are generally more athletic (been proven).
I think you'll find that white big men are often labelled "soft" far more often than black big men, and usually it's true. Which is why I question the term "soft", is it in the style of play, or someones genes?

True that basketball is taught differently in Europe than the US, where it is more one-on-one than the team game. But "soft" is a vague term which Americans apply far more generously than called for. I find it funny that there are just as much soft American big men in the NBA as their are Euros, yet people ignore it. I think that if studies were done putting into comparison the number of white/black athletes from both Europe and America, and putting them into an equal ratio, that the outcome would be pretty equal. Does that make sense? I wasn't sure how to word it.


By the way, I'm not being controversial or anything, just that this is a topic that interests me.

EDIT: Their are a couple of lines in my first paragraph which look a bit strange regarding race, I won't change it (unless someone wants me to) simply because I don't know how else to put it.
 
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Yeah, I'm with Brick. When a tough big European comes through the stereotype will change. Otherwise... well, there's a stereotype for a reason.

Although I didn't actually know Koufus grew up in America -- I was thrown off by the fact that he plays for the Greek National squad.
 
nbrans said:
Yeah, I'm with Brick. When a tough big European comes through the stereotype will change. Otherwise... well, there's a stereotype for a reason.
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Do you mind clarifying for me what "soft" is? AFAIC, "soft" is a term applied to white people. The white people are then dubbed "Euros". This is merely backed up by the point that Koufos was called soft, only because people thought he grew up in Europe. :rolleyes:
 
dime dropper said:
Do you mind clarifying for me what "soft" is? AFAIC, "soft" is a term applied to white people. The white people are then dubbed "Euros". This is merely backed up by the point that Koufos was called soft, only because people thought he grew up in Europe. :rolleyes:
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By soft I mean just about every single big man who has come from Europe is more comfortable on the perimeter than banging in the post. Sure, there are a few exceptions, like Dan Gadzuric, but for the most part European guys just aren't rugged interior guys.

Now, I actually stood up for Koufos' toughness regardless of where he plays and I don't mindlessly just stereotype players based on where they're born, but the fact is the stereotype is more accurate than not.
 
nbrans said:
By soft I mean just about every single big man who has come from Europe is more comfortable on the perimeter than banging in the post. Sure, there are a few exceptions, like Dan Gadzuric, but for the most part European guys just aren't rugged interior guys.

Now, I actually stood up for Koufos' toughness regardless of where he plays and I don't mindlessly just stereotype players based on where they're born, but the fact is the stereotype is more accurate than not.
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While "just about every single big man who has come from Europe is more comfortable on the perimeter than banging in the post" is a very big generalisation and not even near to being completely true, at least now I know what you mean. But perhaps a different term than "soft" should be used. I fail to see how being a better perimeter player than working in the post equates to being "soft".
 
dime dropper said:
I fail to see how being a better perimeter player than working in the post equates to being "soft".
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Um...soft. Not using your body. Fearing contact and so settling for the same jumpshot your 6'0" PG takes...or the 50yr old potbellied plumber down the street in his driveway.

Elements of soft:

1) play on perimeter on offense rather than get your butt down in the post, finesse offense rather than power offense
2) weak on the glass
3) soft defense, allow opponetns to overpower you in the post, unable or unwilling to stop penetration from smaller players
(you can also throw in competitiveness/desire to jsut kick your opponent's *** every night)

Pau Gasol is soft (2 of the 3 -- rebs and defense); Dirk is soft (pretty much all three, although adequate on the glass anymore); Mehmet is soft (all three); Big Z is borderline soft, Vlade was borderline soft, I actually think that Sabonis might not have been if he had come over to the NBA healthy, but he was damaged goods by the time he got to the league.

As mentioned "white" and soft often go hand in hand due to circumstance -- most Euros are white. And in the U.S. the traditional explanation is that white kids are more often suburban kids who don't grow up brawling on pickup courts. But its far from universal. Brad Miller is soft. Nick Fazekas is soft. Matt Bonner is soft. So was Matt Bullard. But the Argentinians are not. Joel Przbilla is not. Mark Madsen is not (incompetent yes, soft no). Nick Collison really isn't. Kevin McHale was not. Dave Cowens was not. Soft is color blind. Its about game, or lack thereof.

I don't view it as too different to the cap that existed on European PGs before Tony Parker came over, except that I think soft, finesse play is actually intentionally encouraged and celebrated in at least some schools of European big man coaching. Nonetheless, the first guy to buck that, the first guy who comes over ot the NBA and is a Top 5 rebounder, a first or second team All-Defense guy, who plays the game like a Dwight Howard or a Ben Wallace or even a Carlos Boozer...that will inspire imitators and maybe break the chain. But we haven't seen him yet.
 
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draftexpress and espn updated their mock drafts today having anthony randolph dropping in our laps. i wouldnt mind picking him up and others have said he'd be a steal at the 12th pick
 
I always rail against the word "soft" for any basketball player. Doesn't say a thing. In Europe the game is fundamentals. It has to be as the game of basketball is generally new there for the elementary-middle school age kids and only the American High Schools play it in grades 9-12. Euro kids, rather the schools they attend, don't appear to have middle school-high school basketball programs but there seems to be a plethora of "club" type teams.

So they learn basketball fundamentals and team basketball. Look what that led to and what the Euros and Argentina did to top NBA teams in international competition the past 4-6 years up to last summer. As part of the team concept you don't have the bangers and muscle types laying a hurt on someone trying to do a layup down the middle. It is not in the fundamental "culture" of Euro basketball.

Consequently, they are more finesse type players, 15-20 ft "shooters" and slashers and pick-and-roll types. The flopping comes from everyone over there (and in Argentina) watching international soccer where they have taken flopping and moaning to a much higher art form than even Vlade Divac did 98-04.

I prefer the word "finesse" for "big" Euros, like Gasol, like Nowitski and Zydrunas and even Peja. And its taken Yao 4 years to learn you don't win by being polite on the court.

The black kids referred to by Dime Dropper above start playing street and playground BB when they are 6, 8 and 10 years old. They watch the older kids playing on every playground. You can play BB with only a ball and a rim almost anywhere so in a city its easy to do whereas soccer is not. And every playground in NY city, and Chicago and LA, etc., has BB courts. It's easy for inner city kids to start there. And to win on the playgrounds you have to start knocking the other team kids on their butts. Finesse on the playgrounds of NYC is "soft" if you want to get to the next level.

I grew up as a yound kid playing stickball in New York City then later two years playing BB at American High Schools in Germany so I've seen both sides. Then and now is not a lot different. A "beaner" in stickball is the same as a hard foul on someone trying to layup down the paint. You learn to try to intimidate as there is no one around to show you how to win with "finesse". In Europe all the "club" teams for kids from 14-15 on up start with and stress fundamentals and finesse.

But then the Euros and Argentines using teamwork and finesse put it to the USA and our bang-bang style for a few years didn't they??

My book says watch Ajinca and Hibbert as the "bigs" at the 12 then wait for the annual GP surprise pick. Either of those guys in a year or two could bring some defensive presence to the Kings as well as getting 10 pts mostly on offensive rebounds and swatting away enough to start to eliminate the layup drills we've seen the past 4-5 years. And both have been written as better than average passing bigs.
 
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Bricklayer said:
As mentioned "white" and soft often go hand in hand due to circumstance -- most Euros are white. And in the U.S. the traditional explanation is that white kids are more often suburban kids who don't grow up brawling on pickup courts. But its far from universal. Brad Miller is soft. Nick Fazekas is soft. Matt Bonner is soft. So was Matt Bullard. But the Argentinians are not. Joel Przbilla is not. Mark Madsen is not (incompetent yes, soft no). Nick Collison really isn't. Kevin McHale was not. Dave Cowens was not. Soft is color blind. Its about game, or lack thereof.
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I can name you many Euros that are harder than Madsen, Shmedsen or Gebsen but I guess you have never heard of them. The problem is that American GMs do not want to bring hardworking and "boring" guys. They want high scoring ones, stars. I have never heard that Yanks wanted to sign Savrasenko or Papadopoulos, or how about a great winner Papaloukas (he is too expensive for a 10 pt guy probably, who cares about hustle and defence). No. GMs wanna bring Bargniani or other exciting players. Plus, there is a small thing - rules. Under FIBA rules, players can not push each other like in NBA and zone is smaller, so bigs are forced to shoot long jumpers. They are taught to play like that.
 
CruzDude said:
I always rail against the word "soft" for any basketball player. Doesn't say a thing. In Europe the game is fundamentals. It has to be as the game of basketball is generally new there for the elementary-middle school age kids and only the American High Schools play it in grades 9-12. Euro kids, rather the schools they attend, don't appear to have middle school-high school basketball programs but there seems to be a plethora of "club" type teams.

So they learn basketball fundamentals and team basketball. Look what that led to and what the Euros and Argentina did to top NBA teams in international competition the past 4-6 years up to last summer. As part of the team concept you don't have the bangers and muscle types laying a hurt on someone trying to do a layup down the middle. It is not in the fundamental "culture" of Euro basketball.

Consequently, they are more finesse type players, 15-20 ft "shooters" and slashers and pick-and-roll types. The flopping comes from everyone over there (and in Argentina) watching international soccer where they have taken flopping and moaning to a much higher art form than even Vlade Divac did 98-04.

I prefer the word "finesse" for "big" Euros, like Gasol, like Nowitski and Zydrunas and even Peja. And its taken Yao 4 years to learn you don't win by being polite on the court.

The black kids referred to by Dime Dropper above start playing street and playground BB when they are 6, 8 and 10 years old. They watch the older kids playing on every playground. You can play BB with only a ball and a rim almost anywhere so in a city its easy to do whereas soccer is not. And every playground in NY city, and Chicago and LA, etc., has BB courts. It's easy for inner city kids to start there. And to win on the playgrounds you have to start knocking the other team kids on their butts. Finesse on the playgrounds of NYC is "soft" if you want to get to the next level.

I grew up as a yound kid playing stickball in New York City then later two years playing BB at American High Schools in Germany so I've seen both sides. Then and now is not a lot different. A "beaner" in stickball is the same as a hard foul on someone trying to layup down the paint. You learn to try to intimidate as there is no one around to show you how to win with "finesse". In Europe all the "club" teams for kids from 14-15 on up start with and stress fundamentals and finesse.

But then the Euros and Argentines using teamwork and finesse put it to the USA and our bang-bang style for a few years didn't they??

My book says watch Ajinca and Hibbert as the "bigs" at the 12 then wait for the annual GP surprise pick. Either of those guys in a year or two could bring some defensive presence to the Kings as well as getting 10 pts mostly on offensive rebounds and swatting away enough to start to eliminate the layup drills we've seen the past 4-5 years. And both have been written as better than average passing bigs.
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I actually wouldn't mind Ajinca or Hibbert. I hated Hibbert for a while but he supposedly has lost weight, became quicker, etc. I already know the guy has strength. I kinda like the idea of a Spencer/Hibbert frontcourt. They'd be huge and long.

Ajinca is a freak athlete supposedly. He's also a 7 footer and if he can be like a Chandler or Bynum in the future, why not?
 
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