Marvin Bagley III

[Ozymandias]

Maybe I'm seeing things, but I thought Jabari Parker (the healthy version) and Jason Tatum were both better players in the pros than they were at Duke. Is there something there about Coach K's system where he makes his own guys look one-dimensional? Is there some of that going on with Bagley? I'm not asserting anything I'm just curious.

Well the Tatum at PF thing was kind of concocted by K and we might see something bizarre with their next recruiting class which is 4 6'7 5star forwards. If DeLaurier and or Bolden get injured their screwed

Bagley and Carter were featured on Duke, but not enough -- Grayson Allen was granted way too much leeway. To live and die by Grayson when you've got those 2 bigs is silly, and it backfired on them

 

[funkykingston]

Maybe I'm seeing things, but I thought Jabari Parker (the healthy version) and Jason Tatum were both better players in the pros than they were at Duke. Is there something there about Coach K's system where he makes his own guys look one-dimensional? Is there some of that going on with Bagley? I'm not asserting anything I'm just curious.

Not really. In fact, for a long time the lazy stereotype was that Duke players underperformed in the NBA. FWIW I don't think Parker has been better in the NBA, even without the injuries.

Bagley should translate well. He won't have as much of a physical advantage on the next level (he'll still likely be more athletic than the guy guarding him most nights) but he'll definitely benefit from greater spacing.

 

[tyguy]

This is the post that should be refutted for those that want Bagley to be our pick.

It's just being ignored.

 

[Ozymandias]

It's just being ignored.

If I didnt have Bamba and JJJ over Bagley on my board i'd have a go. im noT crazy about defensive advanced stats, ifeel they often dont account for all the variables involved. drtg for example is one where good defenders can look crapty in a guilty by association manner next to their slacker teammates.

I thought wendell carter jr looked better defensively than marvin at duke, marvin was more outt of his comfort zone. They washed Wake Forest easily but a true strong 7footer like doral Moore gave them fits and made every shot he took.

Not trying to absolve him but if u look at the BC loss for example.they got shredded on the perimeter . Duke had along list of defensive issues, youd be crazy to attribute them all to marvin

 

[BigVirg]

If I didnt have Bamba and JJJ over Bagley on my board i'd have a go. im noT crazy about defensive advanced stats, ifeel they often dont account for all the variables involved. drtg for example is one where good defenders can look crapty in a guilty by association manner next to their slacker teammates.

I thought wendell carter jr looked better defensively than marvin at duke, marvin was more outt of his comfort zone. They washed Wake Forest easily but a true strong 7footer like doral Moore gave them fits and made every shot he took.

Not trying to absolve him but if u look at the BC loss for example. they got shredded on the perimeter. Duke had along list of defensive issues, youd be crazy to attribute them all to marvin

I thought you wanted to pair up the lefties? Who do you want at 2 if all is equal? We had private workouts, clean bill of health etc...

 

[ESP47]

It's just being ignored.

I thought it was a great post and I agree with it. I'd add Bagley to the squad if we basically already knew that Fox and Buddy were Lillard and McCollum but choosing Marvin to be our #1 guy is way too risky at this point. Low probability of him being the #1 guy that can lead the team. Probably a decent probability that he will put up solid numbers but his effect on winning is probably going to be marginal unless he magically turns into a good defender.

 

[Ozymandias]

I thought you wanted to pair up the lefties? Who do you want at 2 if all is equal? We had private workouts, clean bill of health etc...

Mo Bamba is #1 on my board. I like all the optioons tho, just some more than others.

 

[BigVirg]

Mo Bamba is #1 on my board. I like all the optioons tho, just some more than others.

That's fair. I'm not as high on Bamba as you but I can see the upside. I just think Marvin's upside is more achievable.

 

[Warhawk]

I can not help but feel that Doncic brings to the table a lot of what the Kings already have in Bogdan.

I keep seeing this and wondering if too much BBIQ, good passing, heady play, getting teammates involved, etc., is something to be frowned upon. Give me all of those players we can find.

 

[Joshoua]

I keep seeing this and wondering if too much BBIQ, good passing, heady play, getting teammates involved, etc., is something to be frowned upon. Give me all of those players we can find.

You know what sad people wouldn’t complain if we gathered a bunch of high athletes with low IQs. A damn shame

 

[Entity]

I keep seeing this and wondering if too much BBIQ, good passing, heady play, getting teammates involved, etc., is something to be frowned upon. Give me all of those players we can find.

My gripe is we need somebody that can benefit from all that play making which is a great scorer. We don’t have one of those. So should you duplicate something you have now in bogdan? Or compliment him and Fox with a great scorer.

 

[Warhawk]

My gripe is we need somebody that can benefit from all that play making which is a great scorer. We don’t have one of those. So should you duplicate something you have now in bogdan? Or compliment him and Fox with a great scorer.

You mean like Buddy, and WCS (with alley oops), and Bogie, and Fox all can be with better passing and ball movement? I get what you mean, but it is only one pick. You can't address all team needs with one selection. And every player in this draft has holes in their game. Which great scorer are you thinking is best for our team?

 

[TaxMan]

A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.

100% agree with this. I’ve seen posts where people say we should go against the grain and look for a big because they are undervalued and we’d have a matchup advantage. But the focus on highly skilled, multi-positional wings and shooters is not just a fad. It’s a direct result of the changes to the illegal defense rules that seriously altered the possible dominance of the ‘traditional’ big man. People can try to outsmart the league with a big man focused offense, but it’s not going to be a winners bet unless the player is truly transcendent.

 

[Ozymandias]

100% agree with this. I’ve seen posts where people say we should go against the grain and look for a big because they are undervalued and we’d have a matchup advantage. But the focus on highly skilled, multi-positional wings and shooters is not just a fad. It’s a direct result of the changes to the illegal defense rules that seriously altered the possible dominance of the ‘traditional’ big man. People can try to outsmart the league with a big man focused offense, but it’s not going to be a winners bet unless the player is truly transcendent.

It's interesting you make this post in a thread about Marvin Bagley. Who gets buckets in a far from traditional sense, he's 6'11 and has a better euro-step than most SF's. Marvin is quick as a cat traditional bigmen are the ones who are gonna struggle vs him.

DeAndre Hunter of UVA did the best job guarding Marvin all season and he's a 6'9 long armed SF/PF and 1st rd pick in 2019.

Marvin wants to run, he's best suited in a high paced offense, whats traditional about that? kings have a lot of players who can run already. I watched Fox zoom past westbrook with the ball and then the entire okc defense in 2 seconds last szn.......

 

[Ozymandias]

Bagley's response to Ayton saying he's going 1 Worth checking out.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...he-ayton-talk-at-no-1-disrespectful/35853489/

 

[funkykingston]

100% agree with this. I’ve seen posts where people say we should go against the grain and look for a big because they are undervalued and we’d have a matchup advantage. But the focus on highly skilled, multi-positional wings and shooters is not just a fad. It’s a direct result of the changes to the illegal defense rules that seriously altered the possible dominance of the ‘traditional’ big man. People can try to outsmart the league with a big man focused offense, but it’s not going to be a winners bet unless the player is truly transcendent.

I've been thinking about this because I believe two things are true: (1) Bagley is the most talented player in the draft (2) Bagley is not an ideal fit in today's NBA.

Since he isn't a rim protector or good defender in space (and also isn't currently big enough to guard guys like Embiid, Boogie etc in the post) he isn't a good fit as the lone big on defense.

So how is Bagley best used? In my mind it's as a PF playing next to a shotblocking, rim protecting C who can also step out and hit jumpers to open up some space on offense. Then Bagley is left to guard wings or stretch fours on defense (and the occasional traditional PF) which I think he can do well owing to his lateral quickness. And on offense he can punish those guys with his size, speed and aggressiveness.

I've said that I think in terms of fit that Memphis is probably the best landing spot. Could he work well with Cauley-Stein and Giles? I don't know.

I DO believe that the Kings aren't good enough to draft for fit with the current roster. But I also believe that Bagley (unless he improves dramatically as an team defender and shot blocked) forces the team to be built in a specific way to get the most out of him.

 

[roasthawg]

I DO believe that the Kings aren't good enough to draft for fit with the current roster. But I also believe that Bagley (unless he improves dramatically as an team defender and shot blocked) forces the team to be built in a specific way to get the most out of him.

I agree with this. Same for Doncic. The best fits imo are jjj, mo, or porter. Like you said we don't draft for fit. My issue is all of these guys seem so close, taking jjj and just makes the most sense to me.

 

[funkykingston]

I agree with this. Same for Doncic. The best fits imo are jjj, mo, or porter. Like you said we don't draft for fit. My issue is all of these guys seem so close, taking jjj and just makes the most sense to me.

Bamba, JJJ, and MPJ are all easy fits. Doncic certainly seems at his best running an offense but he was just as effective playing on the Slovenian team with Goran Dragic as the PG and Luka playing off the ball as a secondary playmaker.

So I would categorize him as plug and play also other than possibly needing a good wing defender next to him to take the tough matchups the same way Klay does with Curry.

 

[sactowndog]

Bamba, JJJ, and MPJ are all easy fits. Doncic certainly seems at his best running an offense but he was just as effective playing on the Slovenian team with Goran Dragic as the PG and Luka playing off the ball as a secondary playmaker.

So I would categorize him as plug and play also other than possibly needing a good wing defender next to him to take the tough matchups the same way Klay does with Curry.

Except we have a secondary ball handler who is also a better shooter in Bogdan.... have valuable is a third ball handler I’m not sure.

 

[TaxMan]

It's interesting you make this post in a thread about Marvin Bagley. Who gets buckets in a far from traditional sense, he's 6'11 and has a better euro-step than most SF's. Marvin is quick as a cat traditional bigmen are the ones who are gonna struggle vs him.

DeAndre Hunter of UVA did the best job guarding Marvin all season and he's a 6'9 long armed SF/PF and 1st rd pick in 2019.

Marvin wants to run, he's best suited in a high paced offense, whats traditional about that? kings have a lot of players who can run already. I watched Fox zoom past westbrook with the ball and then the entire okc defense in 2 seconds last szn.......

Of course there are degrees to the argument. I don’t doubt that Bagley has a diverse skill set. However, i still think most bigs in general are at a disadvantage than they were 20 years ago. Of course I’m not saying you never draft a big man, but the current NBA landscape suggests the smart teams don’t overvalue. All things equal, 20 years ago, the size and athleticism of the bigger player tilted the decision in his favor. Today, that is not the case. You can still say you think Bagley is a generational player and will be the next superstar big to lead a team to success, but I think the odds are better he will be a great player that you never see as the centerpiece on a championship team.

The original post I was commenting on made the great point that the dominant offensive big man has to be a defensive force to be most effective in today’s NBA. I mean, certainly every team in the league would do almost everything to get Anthony Davis on their team, but how many are as confident that Townes is as critical without the D? I don’t claim to know the answer but curious if you think at the end of the day Bagley can be a difference maker and who you think he most resembles on the current elite teams in the NBA?

 

[Ozymandias]

Of course there are degrees to the argument. I don’t doubt that Bagley has a diverse skill set. However, i still think most bigs in general are at a disadvantage than they were 20 years ago. Of course I’m not saying you never draft a big man, but the current NBA landscape suggests the smart teams don’t overvalue. All things equal, 20 years ago, the size and athleticism of the bigger player tilted the decision in his favor. Today, that is not the case. You can still say you think Bagley is a generational player and will be the next superstar big to lead a team to success, but I think the odds are better he will be a great player that you never see as the centerpiece on a championship team.

The original post I was commenting on made the great point that the dominant offensive big man has to be a defensive force to be most effective in today’s NBA. I mean, certainly every team in the league would do almost everything to get Anthony Davis on their team, but how many are as confident that Townes is as critical without the D? I don’t claim to know the answer but curious if you think at the end of the day Bagley can be a difference maker and who you think he most resembles on the current elite teams in the NBA?

He resembles Amare Stoudemire from the suns teams many of these elite teams emulate.

 

[ockingsfan]

I've been thinking about this because I believe two things are true: (1) Bagley is the most talented player in the draft (2) Bagley is not an ideal fit in today's NBA.

I like Bagley's motor and his athleticism, but the more I look into it, I just don't see any evidence of a mid-range game in his tape. He seems to be all dunks and put backs and the occasional 3 pointer.

For me to take Bagley #2, I want to make sure he can hit the 10 to 15 foot jumper. Be able to help spread the floor. If his offense is all at the rim, it's going to clog the lane for players like Fox, Giles, WCS to operate.

Please let me know if you believe he can realistically develop a mid-range, face up game and help spread the floor.

 

[Gguod]

So how is Bagley best used? In my mind it's as a PF playing next to a shotblocking, rim protecting C who can also step out and hit jumpers to open up some space on offense. Then Bagley is left to guard wings or stretch fours on defense (and the occasional traditional PF) which I think he can do well owing to his lateral quickness. And on offense he can punish those guys with his size, speed and aggressiveness.

There are like two or three those types of centers currently in the Nba. Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid and maybe Myles Turner if he can be called a rim protector.

But yeah thats the problem with Bagley. Even if he becomes an elite offensive player (which imo is a big if), his overall value is limited because of his defensive limitations at a position where defending is premium.

So basically since he mostly does his attacking in the paint and isnt much of a floor stretcher, offensively he needs to be the only big on the floor, or at least the only big inside the three point line. Thats bad because defensively at center he is a huge liability and centers who are defensive liabilities are in general low value players.

For me to take Bagley #2, I want to make sure he can hit the 10 to 15 foot jumper. Be able to help spread the floor. If his offense is all at the rim, it's going to clog the lane for players like Fox, Giles, WCS to operate.

Please let me know if you believe he can realistically develop a mid-range, face up game and help spread the floor.

To me in order to justify taking him #2 he needs to be a credible 3 point shooter and considering he took so few jump shots and shot only 62% from the line, i wouldnt put a lot of money on that.

Spotting up for mid rangers just doesnt stretch the floor that mutch if at the same time you have another non 3point shooting big on the floor. So much easier to help from a guy that is spotting up for a mid ranger, easier to rotate back to him and contest the shot. Also mid range shot being a low value shot I wouldnt want too many of our guys spotting up for them.

 

[ockingsfan]

To me in order to justify taking him #2 he needs to be a credible 3 point shooter and considering he took so few jump shots and shot only 62% from the line, i wouldnt put a lot of money on that.

Spotting up for mid rangers just doesnt stretch the floor that mutch if at the same time you have another non 3point shooting big on the floor. So much easier to help from a guy that is spotting up for a mid ranger, easier to rotate back to him and contest the shot. Also mid range shot being a low value shot I wouldnt want too many of our guys spotting up for them.

The value of having a mid range shot is to help draw your big man defender away from the basket, thus opening the lane for your driving players like Fox. Being able to consitently hit that top of the key or elbow jumper is very important for a big man in todays NBA.

It keeps the defense honest, instead of allowing the big man defender to just camp out in the lane. The threat that he has that weapon will help open things up in the lane. Once he has that mid range game down, that will open up his 3 point shot even more.

 

[Gguod]

The value of having a mid range shot is to help draw your big man defender away from the basket, thus opening the lane for your driving players like Fox. Being able to consitently hit that top of the key or elbow jumper is very important for a big man in todays NBA.

It keeps the defense honest, instead of allowing the big man defender to just camp out in the lane. The threat that he has that weapon will help open things up in the lane. Once he has that mid range game down, that will open up his 3 point shot even more.

Yeah for a center mid ranger is absolutely a big plus. I was talking about a scenario where he would play as a pf with a non shooting center. To me in that scenario a mid range shot isnt nearly enough.

 

[ESP47]

I like Bagley's motor and his athleticism, but the more I look into it, I just don't see any evidence of a mid-range game in his tape. He seems to be all dunks and put backs and the occasional 3 pointer.

For me to take Bagley #2, I want to make sure he can hit the 10 to 15 foot jumper. Be able to help spread the floor. If his offense is all at the rim, it's going to clog the lane for players like Fox, Giles, WCS to operate.

Please let me know if you believe he can realistically develop a mid-range, face up game and help spread the floor.

All he needs is a 3 point shot. Good teams don't have big men shooting 15 foot jump shots anymore.

 

[roasthawg]

All he needs is a 3 point shot. Good teams don't have big men shooting 15 foot jump shots anymore.

Yeah all four of these bigs at the top of the draft have a chance to be decent three point shooters. I think jjj has the best chance based on the most college makes to go along with the highest 3pt and ft percentages.

After that it gets a little tougher. Bagley made the most threes out him, ayton, and Bamba but he shot the worst from the line which is a major indicator of NBA 3pt success. Ayton made the least threes of this group but shot a better percentage than Bamba and was better from the line than both Bamba and Bagley. Bamba made more threes than ayton but shot worse percentages. He was better from the line than bagley though. Anyone's guess how it shakes out between these three.

 

[Ozymandias]

Bamba, Ayton, JJJ Bagley in that order for shooters imo. Jackon could be fine his mechanics are soooo funky tho. Bamba's shot is all reworked from college already. Mo and Ayton can eventually shoot 80%fts.

Obviously 6'11 MP Jr. would be 1st on this list.

Bagley's shot will come around he needs the most work tho, Mo and Ayton have a more natural shooters touch..

 

[Ozymandias]

Lonzo ball shot lights out in college but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from 3 or the ft stripe as a rook. Im weary of paying these relatively small samples too much creedance and even more so when its low volume attempts from bigmen

 

[sterö]

What I don't understand is that we assume that Bagley has to be play Center to be effective. This is not right imo. Of course this league is going into the direction of playing 3s at the 4, but Bagley is stronger, quicker and faster than most of these smallball 4s. I dont think that his face-up game is an issue either. So for me he definitely fits the modern style NBA IF he can develop into a good 3 point shooter. And I hope that the Kings workout will give them some answers regarding this question .If they think he can, then he is my pick at #2.