Marvin Bagley III

[Livinthedream]

I was thinking about this last night. I have Bagley at the top of my board for the Kings but there's a part of me that wants Doncic more and I figured out why.

Bagley is the best pick if none of our current bigs pan out. If WCS keeps being inconsistent and wanting to be an offensive star instead of focusing on being a defensive force and rim runner. If Giles can't stay healthy or recapture what he once was. If Skal doesn't take the next step and actually become a valuable contributor. In that case we're really just left with hoping Fox develops and relying on the 1, 2 punch of Hield and Bogdan at the SG spot. It means the team is further from being anything but a more entertaining lottery team while watching Fox and Bagley hopefully develop some real chemistry.

Doncic is the better pick if somehow Giles lives up to the low level hype that's been building around him and if Cauley-Stein and or Labissiere actually show something this season. Because now you have a solid young prospect at every position and a team built for a motion offense with plus passers at most spots in Bogdan, Luka, Harry and possibly even Willie.

I think the reality is closer to the first scenario. The Kings are like Philly a few years back (before drafting Simmons and when Embiid couldn't stay healthy) with lots of young guys that don't really pan out and who end up getting shipped out for pennies on the dollar like MCW, Noel and Okafor. But I'd sure love it if it were the latter.

I've been been flip flopping too. The main issue being that what this team needs is not necessarily provided by the consensus #2 picks. I'm pretty confident Bagley can be a double double player right out the box. Doncic is going to be a very very good basketball player and elevate the play of his teammates. But I keep looking over my shoulder and checking out Michael Porter. Because what the team needs is a healthy Porter who lives up to the hype. If the Kings had that, then Willie won't even have the opportunity to think he can be an offensive threat for this team. He'd be forced to settle into a specific role. Giles doesn't need to be a star. Just go out and be good.

Doncic may be the better overall player than Bagley, but we need a scorer. Someone we know we can depend on game in and game out. Or when the game is on the line. Both Doncic and Bagley feel like pieces of the puzzle rather than a foundation.

Yes, we do feel a lot like Philly. But the "process" in Philly required looking for stars, not pieces of the puzzle. Not sure our front office or fans are willing to trust that process.

 

[BigVirg]

I'm still hoping MPJ is the guy but if we can't get accurate medical records then you can't take that risk

 

[funkykingston]

Bagley is the type of PF that can hold his own vs Draymond

I think Bagely comes into the NBA with real 20/10 potential right off the bat. He'll get easy points in transition, off putbacks, and from lobs and dumpoffs while the greater spacing in the NBA will open up his face up game even more. And even without a right hand, he can punish teams that go small by taking defenders into the post. If gets really consistent with his outside shot so that guys have to play him tight on the perimeter and develops a pull up jumper when he can't get all the way to the rim he'll be a complete offensive force who also cleans the glass. And his motor could be infectious.

My big concern with Bagley is if he can anchor s defense as the lone big. If he cant, it means you pretty much always have to play him next to another big and that limits your team's versatility and roster building strategy a bit.

I think he's talented enough to be worth it either way but it's also why I think his best fit among top lottery teams may be in Memphis next to Gasol and with Conley.

 

[tyguy]

I'm reposting this here because of a request. Taking a big man like Bagley that doesn't project as an elite defender with a top 2 pick would be a disaster:

The only players that are high impact game altering offensive players A. Create shots for themselves B. Create shots for others. B is out of the question, it's extremely rare for a big and Bagley has not shown the chops. As far as creating offense for himself, post offense is inefficient.

In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.

—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.

—Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher

Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB 1, Jokic 1, Karl Malone 1. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.

—Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional big.

The story is the same for offensive RPM.

2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).

2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.

+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs


A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.

 

[Ozymandias]

The best part about Bagley is how efficient he is. He scored over 21 pts a game on only 13 shot attempts per game.

He is extremely difficult to stay in front of defensively, he's the best ive seen at this at his size.

I think Bagely comes into the NBA with real 20/10 potential right off the bat. He'll get easy points in transition, off putbacks, and from lobs and dumpoffs while the greater spacing in the NBA will open up his face up game even more. And even without a right hand, he can punish teams that go small by taking defenders into the post. If gets really consistent with his outside shot so that guys have to play him tight on the perimeter and develops a pull up jumper when he can't get all the way to the rim he'll be a complete offensive force who also cleans the glass. And his motor could be infectious.

My big concern with Bagley is if he can anchor s defense as the lone big. If he cant, it means you pretty much always have to play him next to another big and that limits your team's versatility and roster building strategy a bit.

I think he's talented enough to be worth it either way but it's also why I think his best fit among top lottery teams may be in Memphis next to Gasol and with Conley.

Marvin can play C vs smallball lineups. He fits on all of the teams with top 5picks.He could post 20/10, wouldn't surprise me.

 

[funkykingston]

Marvin can play C vs smallball lineups.

He can, but how effectively? Bagley had a worse block rate than Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller and Greg Monroe.

He's shown flashes of being a very good one-on-one defender but being the lone paint protector and asked to not just anchor the defense but make the right reads and rotations? He made terrible decisions at times last year in a simple 2/3 zone. Bagley being the lone big on defense in the NBA would likely be really ugly early on.

 

[tyguy]

The likelihood of Bagley becoming elite defensively is nill. So you have to ask yourself, will he become elite offensively? Statistically as a big man the probability points to no.

 

[Ozymandias]

Marvin is exce

He can, but how effectively? Bagley had a worse block rate than Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller and Greg Monroe.

He's shown flashes of being a very good one-on-one defender but being the lone paint protector and asked to not just anchor the defense but make the right reads and rotations? He made terrible decisions at times last year in a simple 2/3 zone. Bagley being the lone big on defense in the NBA would likely be really ugly early on.

He's not Jaren Jackson jr defensively but he's not as bad as those guys you listed either.

Defense is played by a team, Duke couldnt deter anyone on the perimeter , Grayson Allen, Gary Trent and Trevon duval, who was once talked about as a lotto talent and the other two in the first now could all fall to the 2nd partially due to defensive shortcomings.

 

[kingsfan1984]

.

My big concern with Bagley is if he can anchor s defense as the lone big. If he cant, it means you pretty much always have to play him next to another big and that limits your team's versatility and roster building strategy a bit.
.

This statement is an inconvenient truth for the team that takes Bagley and needs to be included and properly weighted into Bagleys profile. Bagleys offense needs to be so good to outweigh this anchor on his value. Its the biggest reason i think porter or doncic should be our pick ahead of Bagley.

 

[Joshoua]

Bagley is the type of PF that can hold his own vs Draymond

Green will just hack him all day and get away with it. But in 2-3 years is when we’ll reach the playoffs and green will be irrelevant by then

 

[Ozymandias]

Here's the video of bagley getting dunked on last summer by naz carter i mentioned days ago.

 

[kingsfan1984]

I'm reposting this here because of a request. Taking a big man like Bagley that doesn't project as an elite defender with a top 2 pick would be a disaster:

The only players that are high impact game altering offensive players A. Create shots for themselves B. Create shots for others. B is out of the question, it's extremely rare for a big and Bagley has not shown the chops. As far as creating offense for himself, post offense is inefficient.

In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.

—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.

—Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher

Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB 1, Jokic 1, Karl Malone 1. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.

—Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional big.

The story is the same for offensive RPM.

2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).

2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.

+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs


A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.

This is the post that should be refutted for those that want Bagley to be our pick.

 

[Joshoua]

I'm reposting this here because of a request. Taking a big man like Bagley that doesn't project as an elite defender with a top 2 pick would be a disaster:

The only players that are high impact game altering offensive players A. Create shots for themselves B. Create shots for others. B is out of the question, it's extremely rare for a big and Bagley has not shown the chops. As far as creating offense for himself, post offense is inefficient.

In fact, offense creation is the domain of wings and guards. Very, very few “bigs” can be high impact offensive game changers because they cannot create for themselves and they usually cannot create for others. There is historical proof of this.

—In NBA history having a Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) of +5 is the mark of an elite offensive player and +6 is the domain of the game changing offensive players. There have been 243 individual seasons in which a player has posted a Box +/- of +5 or higher and only 116 in which a player has had a +6 season.

—Here are all the non wings/guards to have a Box Plus/Minus season of +6 or higher

Barkley 4 times, Shaq 2, KAJ 1, KLove 1, DROB 1, Jokic 1, Karl Malone 1. That’s only 11 out of 116 times or about 9.5% of all such player seasons.
If you look at all the bigs who had a Box +/- of +5 or higher, you wind up with a total 32 out of 243 or about 13.2% of all such player seasons.

—Wings and guards have created the best offense (especially since 1980) but teams just didn’t know it. The highest all time OBPM for non wings and guards is Barkley at #13 and #21 all time. This was when he was in Philly and played like a big since he had far fewer assists than those at the top of this list. Kareem at #36 is the highest ranking traditional big.

The story is the same for offensive RPM.

2018: 16 players over +3 (Jokic and KAT the only bigs), 10 Over +4 (Jokic the only big), 5 Over +5 (ZERO bigs), 2 Over +6 (ZERO bigs).

2017: 24 players over +3, ( Blake, KAT, BOOGIE, Jokic), 14 over +4 (Jokic), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2016: 16 players over +3 (Jokic), 9 over +4 (ZERO bigs), 7 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 2 over +7 (ZERO bigs)

2015: 22 players over +3 (LMA, AD), 13 over +4, (ZERO bigs), 5 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 3 over +7 (ZERO bigs). 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

2014: 24 players over +3 (Ryno, Love, dirk, Frye), 13 over +4 (Dirk), 6 over +5 (ZERO bigs), 4 over +6 (ZERO bigs), 1 Over +8 (ZERO bigs)

ORPM TOTALS from 2014–2018: There’s never been a big with an ORPM over 5.

+3 ORPM: 92 player seasons overall, only 13 bigs (14.1%)
+4 ORPM: 59 player seasons overall, 3 bigs (5.1%)
+5 ORPM: 33 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+6 ORPM: 19 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+7 ORPM: 7 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs
+8: ORPM: 2 player seasons overall, ZERO bigs


A big HAS to become a defensive force to become a game changer because he won’t be on offense. A guy like KAT who can post (least useful in today’s game) and shoot like a guard (look at his %s on open threes) is going to cap out at a +4ish on offense unless he can create for others which seems unlikely. A guy like Jokic is a +4 to +5 Player on offense because of his passing ability. KAT isn’t a defensive anchor but is actually a liability relative to other centers. If KAT were a better defensive player, he’d be a top 3-5 player.

Thank you and this is why I had Doncic ahead is Ayton. That and wing creating is a must and he’ll provide that

 

[Ozymandias]

This is the post that should be refutted for those that want Bagley to be our pick.

I would also like to see someone debunk the Bagley vs. Jaren Jackson footage.

 

[Ozymandias]

Cbs sports just released a 2 rd mock with Bagley as the pick

 

[tyguy]

Cbs sports just released a 2 rd mock with Bagley as the pick

Let's hope they are wrong and the Kings have some sense.

 

[BigVirg]

These top HS prospects get recognition through the AAU circuits and are never taught to play defense. I'm confident he has the physical tools to become at the very least serviceable. The foot speed that Giles and Bagley have would allow us to switch everything without having to follow the small ball trend sweeping across the NBA. It could potentially make us a team that teams have to try and match up with. Over the years it got tiresome to watch us try to go big or small depending on the team we were playing. Having 2 extremely light footed bigs at 6 10" a piece would allow us to play OUR game.

 

[tyguy]

These top HS prospects get recognition through the AAU circuits and are never taught to play defense. I'm confident he has the physical tools to become at the very least serviceable. The foot speed that Giles and Bagley have would allow us to switch everything without having to follow the small ball trend sweeping across the NBA. It could potentially make us a team that teams have to try and match up with. Over the years it got tiresome to watch us try to go big or small depending on the team we were playing. Having 2 extremely light footed bigs at 6 10" a piece would allow us to play OUR game.

Elite defensive big men historically show elite defense early in college. It's not something that develops in the pros if they were poor in college. So I have to ask, what are we doing considering bagely with this high of a pick if we know he won't be elite defensively and historically big men are not elite offensive players?

 

[ESP47]

These top HS prospects get recognition through the AAU circuits and are never taught to play defense. I'm confident he has the physical tools to become at the very least serviceable. The foot speed that Giles and Bagley have would allow us to switch everything without having to follow the small ball trend sweeping across the NBA. It could potentially make us a team that teams have to try and match up with. Over the years it got tiresome to watch us try to go big or small depending on the team we were playing. Having 2 extremely light footed bigs at 6 10" a piece would allow us to play OUR game.

Then how do you explain the top HS prospects that do defend in college?

Bagley has solid lateral quickness but he has a very short reach for his size so he essentially has inferior tools to do the things defensively that a player his size should be doing.

 

[Ozymandias]

Marvins the pick on the latest ESPN mock update too. They have JJJ 3rd and Doncic 4th....

 

[ppine]

I can not help but feel that Doncic brings to the table a lot of what the Kings already have in Bogdan.
Bagley brings something the Kings do not have which is a consistent offensive big man that can rebound.

 

[BigVirg]

besides JJJ what top 10 prospect plays consistently good defense? ayton...nope. luka.....hell no. Porter..... nope. bamba.....on occasion. young.... nope. Go back and look at the last 5 years or so. NBA defense is not the same as college. Besides Michigan st not many top colleges even attempt to emphasize defense. Even Coach K runs a zone. My question is who do you like because unless you're banging the JJJ drum then I don't want to hear about the "he doesn't play defense" complaints.

 

[BigVirg]

Bagley isn't my number 1 choice. It's still MPJ "IF" we get the necessary injury info but Bagley like PPINE said, brings an element to this team that is doesn't have and is very translatable to the NBA.

 

[Ozymandias]

besides JJJ what top 10 prospect plays consistently good defense? ayton...nope. luka.....hell no. Porter..... nope. bamba.....on occasion. young.... nope. Go back and look at the last 5 years or so. NBA defense is not the same as college. Besides Michigan st not many top colleges even attempt to emphasize defense. Even Coach K runs a zone. My question is who do you like because unless you're banging the JJJ drum then I don't want to hear about the "he doesn't play defense" complaints.

Its about projection tho, not what can you do for me now, it's especially that way for bigs, but in the case of bagley he can probably adjust quickly and start.. Bamba projects as a major defensive forceanyway ya slice it. Mikal bridges is a good defender in the top 10 too FWIW

 

[Ozymandias]

This video's the first i saw of marvin back the summer of 2013. The clickbait title caught my eye.

 

[BigVirg]

Its about projection tho, not what can you do for me now, it's especially that way for bigs, but in the case of bagley he can probably adjust quickly and start.. Bamba projects as a major defensive forceanyway ya slice it. Mikal bridges is a good defender in the top 10 too FWIW

Love me some Mikal. I'd love to trade back into the 1st to get him. And i agree completely, I'm just saying a lot of young phenoms don't play defense in HS or college but that doesn't mean they won't at the next level. And it is few and far in-between of those who are actually polished defenders in HS.

 

[roasthawg]

Cbs sports just released a 2 rd mock with Bagley as the pick

Most have bagley going to the Kings, seems to be the consensus pick right now.

 

[Ozymandias]

As a biased lefty i like the idea of a Fox Bagley pairing .

 

[allrightythen]

Maybe I'm seeing things, but I thought Jabari Parker (the healthy version) and Jason Tatum were both better players in the pros than they were at Duke. Is there something there about Coach K's system where he makes his own guys look one-dimensional? Is there some of that going on with Bagley? I'm not asserting anything I'm just curious.

 

[BigVirg]

Bagley is coming in on Monday for a private workout. Lets go!