Actually Barnes was the consensus number 1 pick and a pre-season all-american before he played a game of college basketball. He's been on a slow downhill slide ever since, but I continue to defend him as a top 5 prospect because I think the draft is about finding the player with the best longterm potential, not the player with the best production to-date.
If I were to rank this year's class in terms of who the best players are today, it would be Davis, Gilchrist, and Robinson at the top of the list. It gets a little trickier after that but everyone knows who the other top guys are, in some order. But if I were to instead rank them on who will have the best NBA career, I would put Drummond and Barnes at the top of the list. And there are all sorts of reasons for that which are difficult for me to explain. Some if it is intuition, some of it is personality, some of it is high school performance. Some of it has to do with the physical differences between college athletes and pro athletes. I love Davis, Gilchrist, and Robinson as players and I think they'll all have success in the NBA. In fact, it would be hard to pass on any of them because the guaranteed production is there. But I'd say that Drummond and Barnes have the best chance at being NBA All-Stars.
In general I think a lot of teams miss on the draft because they overemphasize college production and pre-draft workouts. Winning in college has a lot to do with coaches, teammates, team environment, and so on. We have no way of knowing how Barnes' performance would have changed if you put him in Calipari's system, for instance. You could overreact to his past two games and call Barnes a fraud as a first option, but I think if you look at his overall career it's pretty clear that he has strengths and limitations and parts of his game that he will probably improve and others he might not. The biggest question for every prospect coming in is always how much do they want to improve and how hard will they work to get there. With Barnes I really believe he's going to continue to improve his skillset every season for quite awhile. He doesn't have freak athleticism like a Rudy Gay, but he has ideal size and length for a wing player and a very well-rounded and developing set of basketball skills.
I just love these kind of discussions. Everyone has a different view of the same scene, and I find that interesting. Of course the longer you study a scene, the more likely you are, to see more than just what meets the eye on first glance. As I said, I have Barnes at number 5. I had him at number 3 earlier in the year, and his downward movement had more to do with other people moving up, than bad play by him. His last two games didn't affect my opinion of him at all. You draft on a players overall talent, and his overall play throughout the year. And since I saw him play around 25 times, I'm certainly not going to let a couple of games change my mind.
I agree and disagree on who will or might be an all star. I agree, that both Drummond and Barnes have the potential to be all stars, but as Vince Lombardi said, the word potential means, "You haven't done anything yet". Thats especially true of Drummond. When you consider the hype attached to both him and Davis, and if you use Davis as a measuring stick, Drummond was extremely disappointiing. And this wasn't a similar situation as Derrick Favors faced at Georgia Tech, where the guard play was horrible. He simply undercheived.
Now defensively, he did improve as the year went on, as did his rebounding. But he never entered the rare air of Anthony Davis. But unlike P. Jones III, Drummond seemed to be feeling his way, as opposed to just not being aggressive. Here's the thing. I watched Drummond play in highschool as well as the Adidas nations, and Jordan Brand games. The knock on him there, and still, was that he tends to disappear at times. Thats my worry with him. I agree with Smart. I'd rather have a player thats full of fire, and emotional, than someone you have to light a fire under. Regardless of the talent.
So I have mixed emotions about the kid. He's loaded with talent, and even if he never reaches his potential, your going to have a good player. But as for who will be an all star. I would bet my life on both Gilchrist and Davis. They're both loaded with talent, and the fire that makes a player into an all star. So barring injury, I think both of them are shue in's at some point in their careers.
As far as evaluating players goes, I mostly go with what my eyes tell me. I also take into account the level of competition, and in many cases, the system he plays in. If he's a big, how good are the guards on the team, and how well do they get him the ball in the proper place at the proper time? If he's a PG, how good is the talent around him? Hard to get assists when no one can make a shot. So in that case, how good were his passes that should have been assists.
While I think stats serve their purpose, they can also be misleading. If your the best, and the only good player on a college team, and you get double teamed every time down the floor, your stats are likely to lower than a good player loaded with other good players. The bottom line is, you may well have lower stats, and be a better player than someone with better stats.
Anyway, I've gone on too long about this. This is my favorite time of the year going forward. The hard part is that there's always a couple of players that I lust for, and no there's no way we'll end up with them. Other than a miracle.