Thing is, Davis remains a real long shot. Everybody knows he's #1 so even if we had the very worst record in the league I think our percentage would only be 25%. So you figure for us, less than 20%. Likely less than 10%.
In fact really I think our entire draft this year is dependent on us doing what we could not in either the Reke or Cousins years: get into the top 3. Because you get down to it I think there may only be 3 guys in the enitre lottery who work for us before you think about maybe trading that pick. You have Davis to fill that defensive PF need. You have Drummond as the Davis alternative (Drummond has high bust potential but intrigues the heck out of me still -- who cares aobut his offense, that's not what we need from him). And you have Kidd-Gilchrist to fill the other need for a defensive SF (assuming Smart does not look at him and think 6'6" PF).
But unless I'm missing something (and I might be as I don't watch much college ball anymore) as soon as you get past those three, the rest of the lottery is filled up with players who simply are NOT what we need. You've just got stubby traditional power forwards who you just can't pair with Cousins and possibly Hayes, long athletic combo SF/PFs who Smart might liek, but who don't use their length on defense which makes them worthless to us. You've got Barnes, who's best trait is his offense, which we do not need. Best thing about him is that he's probably a catch and shoot guy rather than a ball domiantor, but being limited is hardly a recommendation. There are several score first combo guard types in the mix, obviosuly something we have more than enoguh of thanks. And so after the Top 3 what's left? Reach/hope on skinny guys like Henson or Coby Zeller? Going the other way for the unique if pedestrian talent in Marshall? You wait until you see if you hit the Top 3 jackpot, but if you don't, I think you have to seriously start taking offers for that pick. Offers involving proven NBA guys who can fill our defensive holes that is.