Prospect watch 2011

[bajaden]

Andrew Goudelock, 6'2" PG from Charleston. I doubt most of you have heard much about him. To be honest, I only saw him play a couple of times, and I wasn't watching the game to see him. It was hard not to notice him though. I saw the game where he put up somewhere around 26 to 28 points on North Carolina. So he got my attention.

With his good showing at the combine, his stock has definitely risen over the past week or so, and if he continues to show well in the team workouts, he could rise to the top of the second round. I don't think he'll wiggle his way into the first round though. His main forte is shooting the basketball. If your looking for someone to spread the floor and keep the other team honest, he would be a good fit. He has outstanding range on his shot, and in the N. Carolina game he took and made a couple of shots where he was a good 12 feet or more behind the three point line, and made it look easy. He shot 40.7% from behind the line and 45.5% overall. He's also a good freethrow shooter averaging 82.1%.

I'm not going to blow smoke and say he's a great PG, but, like Fredette, he was asked to carry most of the offensive load for Charleston. So its hard to get a true read on his PG abilities. And like Fredette, he wasn't asked to play much defense. So those are the grey areas of his game. Athleticly, he tested very well at the combine with a great vertical, and was also one of the top players in the agility testing. So he would appear to have the physcial ability to be a good defender. He did average 4.2 assists per game. But he also averaged 3.2 turnovers a game. A ratio that would have to change at the next level. He also averaged 23.7 points per game, making him one of the leading scorers in the NCAA last season.

If he can make NBA scouts believe he can play the point in the NBA, I think some team will definitely take a flyer on him at the top of the second round. You don't find guys that can shoot like he can just lying around. He's another player that 3 years from now, a lot of teams might be kicking themselves for passing on.

 

[bajaden]

Apparently the Wizards are looking hard at Chris Singleton. Here's an article from the local rag..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...k-horse-at-no-6/2011/05/25/AGLgyNBH_blog.html

 

[ElRey]

Apparently the Wizards are looking hard at Chris Singleton. Here's an article from the local rag..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...k-horse-at-no-6/2011/05/25/AGLgyNBH_blog.html

Looks like Singleton is going to be climbing up the draft boards.

 

[bajaden]

Looks like Singleton is going to be climbing up the draft boards.

Not a surprise. If your looking for a good role player, and I think the Kings are, at least at the SF position, He's someone you have to consider. It looks like they're not alone.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Im gunna shift focus to the last pick of the draft for a second (which we got from Chicago at some point .. Nocioni deal??)

Im surprised at how far off the map Kalin Lucas fell. Heres a quote from Draft Express around this time last year.

Lucas is guy who most scouts have probably already built an impression on one way or another after playing at a high major program for three seasons. While his upside may not be tremendous, he's been one of the best point guards in the college game for the past two seasons, and he possesses the all-around skill set and intangibles to potentially be a contributor as an excellent backup point guard or fringe starter in the NBA. The most important thing for him to show this season to make that happen, will be that his achilles injury is not a major concern.

I still think he can still be that type of player. He has been injury prone, but I think he has some really good leadership qualities and he is very seasoned. I like the idea of having a player like him come in off the bench.

We may not even have to draft him, but I'd like to give him an invite to camp at the very least. I still have some faith in him.

 

[Uncia03]

Not a surprise. If your looking for a good role player, and I think the Kings are, at least at the SF position, He's someone you have to consider. It looks like they're not alone.

I like Singleton a lot, and I'd say that his injury towards the end of the season hurt his draft stock a little bit, but with the combine he should be rising.
I think his biggest problem as a rookie will be foul trouble, because he likes to use his hands a lot on defense. So I think he's going to get called for a lot of fouls as he reaches in and slaps at the ball. But he's got really quick hands, great quickness, speed, and length. His drive to the basket is always an adventure, and though it would be great if he could make that a consistent part of his game, I'd settle for him just being able to consistently knock down the open jumper.

At this point, if we came away with Singleton I wouldn't be upset with the pick, though I would rather see us trade the 7th pick and select Singleton a few spots down, as 7th is going to be too high for him I think.

 

[bajaden]

I like Singleton a lot, and I'd say that his injury towards the end of the season hurt his draft stock a little bit, but with the combine he should be rising.
I think his biggest problem as a rookie will be foul trouble, because he likes to use his hands a lot on defense. So I think he's going to get called for a lot of fouls as he reaches in and slaps at the ball. But he's got really quick hands, great quickness, speed, and length. His drive to the basket is always an adventure, and though it would be great if he could make that a consistent part of his game, I'd settle for him just being able to consistently knock down the open jumper.

At this point, if we came away with Singleton I wouldn't be upset with the pick, though I would rather see us trade the 7th pick and select Singleton a few spots down, as 7th is going to be too high for him I think.

Yeah, his drives to the basket off the dribble sometimes fall into that OH NO, catagory. But he doesn't do it that often, and if he can improve his ballhandling, which is one of his biggest weaknesses, he would improve in that area dramaticly. As for aquiring him later in the draft, I'm fine with that. Problem is, from everything I'm reading in the Washington newspapers, the Wizz are very high on him at number 6, and apparently don't think he's a reach at that point. So its possible he could be gone before we pick at number 7.

 

[Kingster]

Yeah, his drives to the basket off the dribble sometimes fall into that OH NO, catagory. But he doesn't do it that often, and if he can improve his ballhandling, which is one of his biggest weaknesses, he would improve in that area dramaticly. As for aquiring him later in the draft, I'm fine with that. Problem is, from everything I'm reading in the Washington newspapers, the Wizz are very high on him at number 6, and apparently don't think he's a reach at that point. So its possible he could be gone before we pick at number 7.

I hope he's gone. I doubt the Kings org is that high on him. I think he's going to be very offensively challenged at the next level. If he goes that early, then one of the guards will drop, and that would be very nice...

 

[bajaden]

Josh Selby is an interesting prospect. He never had a chance to showcase his abiltities at Kansas. Due ti a 9 game suspension, and then an injury. But coming out of highschool he was one of the top players being recruited. He's a terrific athlete with a huge upside. Too big a reach for the Kings at number 7, but if for some reason the Kings were to manufacture a trade for more picks, he's someone that you'd have to take a hard look at..

Here's a peek at his workouts prior to the combine..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VnSDwlzdpY&feature=player_embedded

 

[bajaden]

Malcom Lee is another interesting prospect that could go bottom first or high second round. Here's a video of his workout at Impact Sports in Las Vegas. I have to admit that his jumpshot looks a lot better. At 6'5", he's a very good defensive player, with PG skills. His shot was his biggest weakness. Of late, UCLA players have fared better in the NBA than they have at UCLA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjFn5vujrxc&feature=player_embedded

 

[LPKingsFan]

Malcom Lee is another interesting prospect that could go bottom first or high second round. Here's a video of his workout at Impact Sports in Las Vegas. I have to admit that his jumpshot looks a lot better. At 6'5", he's a very good defensive player, with PG skills. His shot was his biggest weakness. Of late, UCLA players have fared better in the NBA than they have at UCLA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjFn5vujrxc&feature=player_embedded

I've always thought he might pair well with Tyreke, although the shot was somewhat of a concern. With Thornton on board, finding that ideal backcourt mate isn't a big deal anymore, but Lee's certainly still worth a look in the 2nd round.

 

[bajaden]

I've always thought he might pair well with Tyreke, although the shot was somewhat of a concern. With Thornton on board, finding that ideal backcourt mate isn't a big deal anymore, but Lee's certainly still worth a look in the 2nd round.

Yeah, in the second round every player there has flaws in their game, or has physical defiencies. So I've alway felt its best to pick someone that you think has the highest upside, despite their current lack of ability. Lee would be one of those. I personally think he was mis-used at UCLA. He was used as an off guard there, where I think he would have been better at the PG position. Being the off guard, and not being able to shoot from the outside didn't play to his strengths. Other than his defensive abilities.

 

[bajaden]

From Jason Jones twitter account.

mr_jasonjones Jason Jones
RT @bjaxx24: Great workout for the young brandon knight

 

[bajaden]

From Sam Amick's twitter:

sam_amick Sam Amick
Just left Brandon Knight workout in Sacto. They'd be over the moon if he was still there at 7. He went one on none.

 

[bajaden]

Apparently Jimmer Fredette and Klay Thompson, squared off against Marshon Brooks and Darius Morris for the Knicks. According to sources that were there, Fredette and Thompson were the clear winners, but they say the Knicks were impressed with Brooks as well, and his ability to get to the basket and finish. They said both Thompson and Fredette shot lights out, and that the Knicks were impressed with Fredette's playmaking skills and court vision. One unnamed source said the Knicks would love to have Fredette, but they're confident he'll be gone long before they pick at 17.

For those that aren't familar with Thompson, he's a 6'6" SG that played for Wash. ST. He shot close to 40% from the three for most of his college career. He's a pretty good defender as well.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Here comes the time when everyone drools over meaningless workouts.

 

[ElRey]

Here comes the time when everyone drools over meaningless workouts.

Well I wouldn't say they're meanlingless. They give a team a chance to look at a player up close, and against his peers. I would be wary of drafting a player in the lottery without a workout, esp unknown players like Europeans or players from small schools.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Workouts say very little. The real information comes from real 5-on-5 competition. The teams that don't do their due diligence during the regular season are the ones that are going to fail at the draft, not the teams that don't do enough workouts. The importance of workouts are a scouting myth.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

From Sam Amick's twitter:

Just left Brandon Knight workout in Sacto. They'd be over the moon if he was still there at 7. He went one on none.

I don't really think he'll be there. But the question is, will we be able to (and will we want to) trade up to get him?

The way I see it, Irving goes #1. Whether or not Minny trades out of the #2 (they shouldn't) there's a good chance that Kanter/Williams go 2/3 in some order. Utah is said to be high on Knight, but can they pass on Kanter/Williams to take him when they already have Devin Harris? Maybe not. So if Knight is there at #4, that draft slot is ripe for trading because he's probably BPA and Cleveland won't need him with Irving around. Who would trade up? Not Washington at #6 - they have Wall. And Toronto would be hard pressed to do it from #5 because they know Cleveland would let him slide. So unless Toronto tries to preempt somebody (like us) from moving in to #4, they'll stay put. And imagine the uproar from the fans: "You traded away DeMar DeRozan to move up one slot to pick a guy who the other team wouldn't have wanted!?!" It'll be tough for them to do that.

Which leaves us in a nice spot. We can offer #7 and sweeten the pot with, say, Greene or Casspi. Cleveland has absolutely nothing going at the wing position, so it helps them while not hurting their draft position much. They move down 3 picks, but at least one pick (and two if Walker/Fredette go to Toronto) will be a PG, which they're not targeting anyways. They likely still get "their man", they get him cheaper, and they get a SF in the process. We get Knight (whom Amick thinks we really want) and sign a SF with our cash. Win-win!

 

[bajaden]

Here comes the time when everyone drools over meaningless workouts.

Well according to you Vlade, the combine and all its testing along with all the workouts are meaningless. Unless of course, they tend to support one of your opinions. These things are what they are. All small pieces of the puzzle. With the main piece being the games that were played during the season. The combine and the workouts can in some cases answer some questions that maybe you weren't sure about. Things like, if a player played for a school that played nothing but zone defense, can that player play man to man defense. You can't totally answer that question in a workout, but you can certainly get an idea of what the player is capable of.

In the case of guys like Klay Thompson and Fredette, you expect them to shoot well. So whether they do or not, its still a win/win for them. If they don't shoot well, you just consider it a bad day at the farm. Bottom line, is that mostly what your looking for is basketball knowledge, and confirmation of what you think you already know. So I don't think the workouts are meaningless. Petrie's not an idiot. He wouldn't spend the teams money on bringing in players if he thought it was meaningless. Now if some fans want to drool over them, thats their business. All I'm trying to do is keep people informed during what could be a long and boring summer.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Okay, I went too far in saying meaningless, it's definitely very overrated though. I don't know where you get the claim of hypocrisy though, where have I used the athletic measurements or workouts to support my opinion of a player?

Well, I don't consider Petrie to be infallible, so whether he thinks they're meaningless or not, is not particularly important to me.

Baja, my post wasn't meant as an offense towards you. I'm just noticing that it's that time in the draft process when people start drawing way too big of conclusions off of workouts. It happens every year.

 

[Kingster]

I'm not a huge fan of Howland's. I'll grant you that his teams always play defense, but offensively, his teams haven't been very good. And, they've been in a slow decline, with poorer incoming classes each year. There was a time when UCLA would at least get one prep that was in the top ten. This next season Calapari has three players in the top ten, and all three are number 1 at their position. UCLA? Zippo! Top 20? Zippo! And I believe, top 30? Zippo!

Now you don't have to get players in the top 30 to win. It helps, but championships have been won without them. Duke has only one player coming in out of the top 30, but he is in the top ten. Right now, UCLA is in a down turn, apparently along with quite a few other teams in the now PAC 12. There was very little star quality in the PAC 10 last year. Derrick Williams being the biggest name. After him, who was the next biggest name that leaps out at you. Issiah Thomas of Washington? Klay Thompson of Washington St.? Nikola Vucevic of USC? Tyler Honeycutt of UCLA?

Can anyone tell me who the best player on Stanford is? Its probably Jeremy Green, but who the hell would know that? I mean, what the heck has happened to the PAC 10? Anyway, I didn't mean to go on a rant. Its just that it saddens me to see UCLA not even being mentioned as one of the top teams in the country at the beginning of the season.

UCLA has bottomed out. They are now on the upturn. Will have more young talent in the future. Howland just had a recruiting slump, for a variety of reasons. It wasn't too long ago that UCLA was playing for the national championship. It's interesting to me that Florida hasn't exactly lit up the world either over the past few years, despite the fact that they also have an excellent coach and they actually won two championships.

 

[Kingster]

From Sam Amick's twitter:

sam_amick Sam Amick
Just left Brandon Knight workout in Sacto. They'd be over the moon if he was still there at 7. He went one on none.

They wouldn't be the only one over the moon. We could be a bi-lunar phenomenon.

And one other thing: If you're really high on Knight, Petrie, then put your assets where you mouth is and trade up to get him. You're such a WUSS when it comes to trading up in the draft.

 

[Agent23]

They wouldn't be the only one over the moon. We could be a bi-lunar phenomena. And work-out-shmork-out. I don't need no workout to know talent when I see it.

You and I both. He would defend the H out of every point guard in this league and would be the perfect in the 3 guard rotation between Reke, Thornton and himself. If he's not there, I'll be fine with what ever SF they think they can get but if he's there, they better not pass on his butt.

 

[Kingster]

I don't really think he'll be there. But the question is, will we be able to (and will we want to) trade up to get him?

The way I see it, Irving goes #1. Whether or not Minny trades out of the #2 (they shouldn't) there's a good chance that Kanter/Williams go 2/3 in some order. Utah is said to be high on Knight, but can they pass on Kanter/Williams to take him when they already have Devin Harris? Maybe not. So if Knight is there at #4, that draft slot is ripe for trading because he's probably BPA and Cleveland won't need him with Irving around. Who would trade up? Not Washington at #6 - they have Wall. And Toronto would be hard pressed to do it from #5 because they know Cleveland would let him slide. So unless Toronto tries to preempt somebody (like us) from moving in to #4, they'll stay put. And imagine the uproar from the fans: "You traded away DeMar DeRozan to move up one slot to pick a guy who the other team wouldn't have wanted!?!" It'll be tough for them to do that.

Which leaves us in a nice spot. We can offer #7 and sweeten the pot with, say, Greene or Casspi. Cleveland has absolutely nothing going at the wing position, so it helps them while not hurting their draft position much. They move down 3 picks, but at least one pick (and two if Walker/Fredette go to Toronto) will be a PG, which they're not targeting anyways. They likely still get "their man", they get him cheaper, and they get a SF in the process. We get Knight (whom Amick thinks we really want) and sign a SF with our cash. Win-win!

I'd give them Greene AND Casspi for Knight. They could keep each other company in Salt Lake. I wouldn't want for them to get lonely.

 

[bajaden]

Okay, I went too far in saying meaningless, it's definitely very overrated though. I don't know where you get the claim of hypocrisy though, where have I used the athletic measurements or workouts to support my opinion of a player?

Well, I don't consider Petrie to be infallible, so whether he thinks they're meaningless or not, is not particularly important to me.

Baja, my post wasn't meant as an offense towards you. I'm just noticing that it's that time in the draft process when people start drawing way too big of conclusions off of workouts. It happens every year.

My reference to the combine was to a post you made about the the vertical jump being irrelevant. You pointed out that there were players who fared badly at the combine, but showed they had good hops after being in the game. While thats true, it certainly doesn't discount those that do well. Now you may not have mean't it to sound like that, but thats how it came across. That being said, I agree with you that some people make to much of these things. Bottom line is, you still have to be able to play the game. There's a lot of guys that can shoot lights out in practice, but somehow it never translates to a real game.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't see how that shows how I use the combine results to support an opinion of a player, in fact it was used as evidence for my indictment of athletic tests. I was being perfectly consistent, I made no post using the tests to support a pre-existing opinion about a player.

I think the tests are unreliable in measuring what they're supposed to, and I also think that even if they measure what they're supposed to measure, it doesn't even come close to telling the whole story of game-relevant athleticism. I think the max vertical is one of the most worthless measurements of them all.

 

[bajaden]

I don't see how that shows how I use the combine results to support an opinion of a player, in fact it was used as evidence for my indictment of athletic tests. I was being perfectly consistent, I made no post using the tests to support a pre-existing opinion about a player.

I think the tests are unreliable in measuring what they're supposed to, and I also think that even if they measure what they're supposed to measure, it doesn't even come close to telling the whole story of game-relevant athleticism. I think the max vertical is one of the most worthless measurements of them all.

Your entitled to your opinion Vlade. But there you go again with the extreme, by calling them worthless. I'm a reasonable guy, and I place as much value on these tests as they deserve. If someone performs a 40 inch vertical, that means the dude can jump 40 inches in the air. And if that someone was a person that was thought unable to jump high, then the test wasn't worthless. In the case of a player that you've seen play, and you've seen jump high, and he doesn't do well in the vertical test, then you can call that particular test an abberation. As was the case with Durant. But the fact that a player doesn't do well when you know he can, doesn't make the test worthless for everyone else.

Now I'm not going to go back 4 or 5 years and try and find posts by you using the results of the combine for you purposes. I've got better things to do with my time. If you want to pretend you've never quoted the tests to promote a player, or denigrate a player, fine! I know I've certainly used them. The only way the tests are unreliable, is if the player doens't do well when he's expected to. I would hardly say that a test is unreliable if someone thats expected to run fast, runs fast! Two years ago there were people that thought Blake Griffin wasn't a good athlete and that he didn't have good leaping ability. The combine tests showed otherwise, and I think his play since then as validated what the combine showed.

What the tests can't show, is lack of effort on the part of a player. They don't take in account the jet lag a player may be feeling. Or the fact that he may be recovering from the flu. Or perhaps returning from an injury too soon. So yes, its not a perfect science. But it is helpful. It gives you another piece of information to add to all the other pieces that you already have. When your about to invest a few million dollars in a human being, you want as much information as you can get, to confirm your picking the right guy.

 

[Vlade4GM]

The tests are stupid because they don't simulate the kind of jumping that's relevant to playing a basketball game. They don't test second jump ability, they don't measure quick jumping ability, they don't measure explosiveness. You don't get all the time in the world to recoil for a jump in a basketball game, you don't get to use the full power of your muscles because there's no time to do it, and it doesn't really matter how you do it with nobody around you and the ability to use footwork and body mechanics that may not be practical in an in-game situation. If a test only sometimes shows what it's supposed to then it's unreliable and a poor test.

Even if the tests are reliable in theory, the way they so haphazardly conduct it makes the sample unreliable. They don't run them through the same drills to get warmed up, and they only do the tests once. If they really cared about accurate results, they'd make them take the test multiple different times so they can a credible sample. I think it has some value in a relative sense, but like I've said, there are so many variables that they don't account for that it's not even worth the effort.

I don't contend that I may have done that at some point in years past, but that would only be relevant if I were claiming that I've always had this judgment about the athletic tests.

I think it's interesting how you criticized me for condemning the tests while allegedly using their results to support my opinion about a player, when you're saying right now that that's totally cool to do. You're saying that if the test confirms what you already believe then it was reliable, and if it doesn't confirm what you already believe, then it was not reliable. Well, then what's the point of the test if you're just going to believe what you did beforehand regardless of the results?

 

[sc3252]

I thought this wouldn't be a bad thing to post. Break downs of some players by the Jazz PBP announcer David Locke . This includes lots of prospects we might have the chance to get our dirty paws on.

Alec Burks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H3A3_7Hq7w

Kemba Walker
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaqjvJwrd8w

Derrick Williams
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRxz12caa8E

Brandon Knight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw1h5zCJB5w

Enes Kanter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDypseEA8ls

Dontas Motiejunas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvJ5rTjsNA

Jonas Valanciunus
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS_-RMKoX9Y

Jan Vesely
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QZxGrVco3o

David Locke Youtube channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/dlouchheim#p/u

Just a warning it sounds like he has only watched limited amounts video on the players. So someone more knowledgeable like Bajaden can hopefully get a word in on how accurate he is.

PS: If anyone is interested there is also limited video archives that the NCAA is allowing people to watch this year(compared to last where they let you watch the whole ncaa tournament), so if you want to watch full games and did not record them you can go to http://vault.ncaa.com/ and hopefully find a game or two to watch.