Prospect watch 2011

Capt. Factorial

ceterum censeo delendum esse Argentum
Staff member
Judging from reaction I'm getting on tweets, the Kings seem to be impressed with Fredette as well. It will be interesting to see how Walker fares when he comes in next week. I believe it will eventually come down to either of these two guys. I have to think that Knight will be gone by 7. Don't you just love the suspense?
It's looking more and more like that, isn't it? I don't think we've worked out or even scheduled SG Burks or SFs Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton/Klay Thompson or PFs Tristan Thompson/Morris twins, have we? Harris and Honeycutt seem to be stretches at #7. I sure hope some of those guys end up in the workout with Kemba, or that we get a few more on the docket before the draft.
 
It's looking more and more like that, isn't it? I don't think we've worked out or even scheduled SG Burks or SFs Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton/Klay Thompson or PFs Tristan Thompson/Morris twins, have we? Harris and Honeycutt seem to be stretches at #7. I sure hope some of those guys end up in the workout with Kemba, or that we get a few more on the docket before the draft.
I'm a little curious about the Kings bringing in guys like Honeycutt and Harris. Both these guys are slated to go futher down in the first round. So why look at them, unless your either trading down for an additional pick, your trading an existing player for another pick, or simply buying another pick. Charlotte has the 9th and 19th picks in the first round. How important would it be for them to move up just two spots. There could be a deal made when its the Kings turn to pick, depending on whether the player Charlotte wants is available at the time. Just speculating based on nothing.

Houston has the 14th pick and the 23rd pick. I don't see us trading out of the 7th spot and moving down to the 14th spot if we want Fredette or Walker. I think both would be gone by then. Could be that Houston would sell, or trade their 23rd pick for a future pick or an existing player. Portland has been shopping their pick in favor of an experienced player that can contribute right now. Portland has the 23rd pick.

My gut tells me that there's going to be a lot of deals done on draft day. Especially with the possiblilty of a lockout looming. It might be the last chance to make improvements in the team for a while. The Kings are trying to sell tickets. The more they can do before a lockout, that makes the team look more competitive, the easier it is to sell tickets.
 
It's looking more and more like that, isn't it? I don't think we've worked out or even scheduled SG Burks or SFs Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton/Klay Thompson or PFs Tristan Thompson/Morris twins, have we? Harris and Honeycutt seem to be stretches at #7. I sure hope some of those guys end up in the workout with Kemba, or that we get a few more on the docket before the draft.
Harris, I think is fairly in the mix at 7. He's right there with Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton. I think there will be some "surprising" picks in the top 10, but I think people are looking at it the wrong way. This year there is very little difference between prospects 5-25.

Similarly, I like Charles Jenkins just as much as Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette. Maybe more.

The problem with "reaching" is not that you can't get a good player, its that you are passing on real value talent. There's just no high-level value talent there. Sure, there careers will happen and somebody will likely surprise, but there's nothing you can really point to differentiating the tguys listed 5-10 to 20-25. They are roughly the same tier of prospect.
 
I'm a little curious about the Kings bringing in guys like Honeycutt and Harris. Both these guys are slated to go futher down in the first round. So why look at them, unless your either trading down for an additional pick, your trading an existing player for another pick, or simply buying another pick. Charlotte has the 9th and 19th picks in the first round. How important would it be for them to move up just two spots. There could be a deal made when its the Kings turn to pick, depending on whether the player Charlotte wants is available at the time. Just speculating based on nothing.

Houston has the 14th pick and the 23rd pick. I don't see us trading out of the 7th spot and moving down to the 14th spot if we want Fredette or Walker. I think both would be gone by then. Could be that Houston would sell, or trade their 23rd pick for a future pick or an existing player. Portland has been shopping their pick in favor of an experienced player that can contribute right now. Portland has the 23rd pick.

My gut tells me that there's going to be a lot of deals done on draft day. Especially with the possiblilty of a lockout looming. It might be the last chance to make improvements in the team for a while. The Kings are trying to sell tickets. The more they can do before a lockout, that makes the team look more competitive, the easier it is to sell tickets.
I think they are bringing them in because the projections this year are worthless. For the reasons I put above. Take Singleton vs Harris. I could see someone saying they like Singleton better or like his toolset better. But to say Singleton isa definitively better prospect is a real reach to me.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
If we don't bring in SFs, that indicates to me a serious free agent pursuit for a SF with check book wide open. That position HAS to be filled. If the position is not filled, it will be a serious blunder if only in the fan's minds. Our team has to appeal to the fans right now. I also think it would be a serious blunder if we don't resign Thornton and Dally. I mention Thornton because I think people in their Fredette frenzy have forgotten how he changed this team. Dollar per dollar, Thornton may become the best value on the team.

Perhaps a few SFs in the draft are an upgrade at that position but I have not seen one that will fall to us that would be any better than to be the first SF off the bench of a great team. I cannot predict the future of any of them so who knows but this is what at least I think I know.

If people buy the idea that our pick will come off the bench because Thornton remains the starter and we will get a free agent or work a trade for the SF, to ME, that means the question is who has the most value; Singleton/Leonard/Hamilton/Vesely over Omri/Casspi/Cisco or Jimmer over Beno? I haven't closed the book on Casspi although I see him fitting better elsewhere. Greene? Cisco? None are awful and as Petrie has mentioned a need for better three point shooting, he may not move Casspi or Cisco.

Who knows really but is their a pick that is significantly better than Casspi or Cisco? Probably but maybe not.

Then we go back to Jimmer. Is he a big upgrade over Beno? I think this is more clear especially because of Beno's relatively poor three point shooting and Petrie's list of attributes he wants. I have nothing against Beno but Jimmer may quickly pass him on the depth chart.

Therefore I am saying Jimmer is a bigger upgrade than any of the SFs. So also is probably Brandon Knight although I am a little cooler on the idea of a Knight type who probably is better over all. My reasoning is that a guy coming off the bench, one with a special skill, has more value. That's just my opinion. Jimmer has a unique skill that may quickly gain him a reputation as one of the best outside shooters in the NBA. Brandon is very good. Which do you prefer? It's not an easy answer.

I suspect SFs will be brought in though as it IS a position of need and there is no guarantee that Jimmer will be available. More teams then us have changed their mind on Jimmer. You can take that as a guarantee. He is moving up in people's minds and we don't know how far.

No matter who we get, it must be a guaranteed (as much as this is possible) that we get someone that can contribute and let it not be a project. Please, no projects with the #7 pick and with our specific team. Let's see what the rest of the workouts show. Another player's value may improve and then we have a crowd of decent players in the top 7 and with a possibility that a GM or two will screw up, we could do even better than Jimmer. That IS what has happened the last two years so don't scoff at this idea. Although I don't think Irving will fall, the rest are not guaranteed. I understand Williams is a great athlete but he didn't play his projected position in college. It only takes a few GMs to have a question about that for him to fall. Kanter may be a huge question mark not only athletically but because of his choices as to who he will work out for. Perhaps some GMs will see him as trouble maker like Cuz.

We will get a contributor and be better for it. I think it is very difficult to screw up. Sorry for the long note.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
Harris, I think is fairly in the mix at 7. He's right there with Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton. I think there will be some "surprising" picks in the top 10, but I think people are looking at it the wrong way. This year there is very little difference between prospects 5-25.

Similarly, I like Charles Jenkins just as much as Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette. Maybe more.

The problem with "reaching" is not that you can't get a good player, its that you are passing on real value talent. There's just no high-level value talent there. Sure, there careers will happen and somebody will likely surprise, but there's nothing you can really point to differentiating the tguys listed 5-10 to 20-25. They are roughly the same tier of prospect.
You are probably more right than wrong. It is not easy predicting this draft and smoke is now coming out of my head. I am trying to place all the factors into one neat package in my brain and it ain't easy. :).
 
I watched the workout video with Fredette and company. And I watched his interview. I was more impressed with the interview video. The workout video didn't have any surprises in it. I knew he could shoot the ball. I knew he could pass the ball, etc. But I think in the interview video you got a small glimpse into his personality type. He's a very confident guy, and he's a leader. Not a quality unique to him. I think he and Walker share that quality. But my point is, basketball abilities aside, I think that leadership is something our team needs.

I've always felt that Beno has some of those qualities. But I've never felt that Beno had the ability to impose his will on the team. And if you watched either Fredette or Walker this past season, you had no doubt as to who was running their prospective teams. Judging from reaction I'm getting on tweets, the Kings seem to be impressed with Fredette as well. It will be interesting to see how Walker fares when he comes in next week. I believe it will eventually come down to either of these two guys. I have to think that Knight will be gone by 7. Don't you just love the suspense?
To me, if both are available you have to go with Walker. He's the better athlete, no doubt. He's going to be able to get his shot in the NBA much easier than Fredette because of his quickness. He's also better defensively, without a doubt. As time goes by, he's going to improve relative to Fredette because his shooting will continue to get better, whereas Fredette is never going to get quicker. Fredette seems to be the fall back choice for the Kings. If Walker and Knight are gone, they go Fredette. I hope it doesn't come to that and Walker is available.
 
It's looking more and more like that, isn't it? I don't think we've worked out or even scheduled SG Burks or SFs Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton/Klay Thompson or PFs Tristan Thompson/Morris twins, have we? Harris and Honeycutt seem to be stretches at #7. I sure hope some of those guys end up in the workout with Kemba, or that we get a few more on the docket before the draft.
To me, Honeycutt is a 2nd round pick. Maybe that's why they're looking at him.
 
I'm a little curious about the Kings bringing in guys like Honeycutt and Harris. Both these guys are slated to go futher down in the first round. So why look at them, unless your either trading down for an additional pick, your trading an existing player for another pick, or simply buying another pick. Charlotte has the 9th and 19th picks in the first round. How important would it be for them to move up just two spots. There could be a deal made when its the Kings turn to pick, depending on whether the player Charlotte wants is available at the time. Just speculating based on nothing.
That's not a bad idea: #7 + #35 for #9 + #19 if Jimmer is the guy they want. Draft Express has Singleton at #19 in their mock right now. Hard to believe he would last that long but coming away with Fredette / Singleton would be a pretty good haul
 
Harris, I think is fairly in the mix at 7. He's right there with Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton. I think there will be some "surprising" picks in the top 10, but I think people are looking at it the wrong way. This year there is very little difference between prospects 5-25.

Similarly, I like Charles Jenkins just as much as Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette. Maybe more.

The problem with "reaching" is not that you can't get a good player, its that you are passing on real value talent. There's just no high-level value talent there. Sure, there careers will happen and somebody will likely surprise, but there's nothing you can really point to differentiating the tguys listed 5-10 to 20-25. They are roughly the same tier of prospect.
First off, I like Charles Jenkins a lot, and I think he's going to be drafted higher than most of the mocks have listed. I do think you can differentiate the players somewhat by their flaws, how great those flaws are, and then weigh those flaws against their physical abilities. For instance, if you take Fredette, since he's been the current topic of discussion. His obvious flaw is defense. So if you work him out and come to the determination that he's athletic enough to play defense in the NBA, then you downgrade that flaw to reasonable expectations. If you have the physcial ability to play defense, then all is required is intelligence, and hard work to be a good defender. So if you had him at lets say 14 on your board, and the main reason for that position was his lack of defense in college. If you remove that fear, then you move him up your draft board.

I would agree that in some sense, its a crapshoot with a bit of luck thrown in. But if you do your homework, I think the chance of drafting a total bust is slim. Of course your hoping for more than that.
 
I think they are bringing them in because the projections this year are worthless. For the reasons I put above. Take Singleton vs Harris. I could see someone saying they like Singleton better or like his toolset better. But to say Singleton isa definitively better prospect is a real reach to me.
It all depends on what your definition of better prospect is? If your talking about future upside, I guess one could make a case for Harris. Not sure how exactly. He's certainly not a better athlete than Singleton, and at the moment, he's not as skilled overall as Singleton. He is younger than Singleton, so perhaps from that aspect and the fact that he appears to have more offensive upside. But he's a long way from being the defensive player Singleton is. So I guess better prospect would depend on whether you want help now, or in the future. Singleton is ready to step in an play now. Harris is more of a project.
 
It all depends on what your definition of better prospect is? If your talking about future upside, I guess one could make a case for Harris. Not sure how exactly. He's certainly not a better athlete than Singleton, and at the moment, he's not as skilled overall as Singleton. He is younger than Singleton, so perhaps from that aspect and the fact that he appears to have more offensive upside. But he's a long way from being the defensive player Singleton is. So I guess better prospect would depend on whether you want help now, or in the future. Singleton is ready to step in an play now. Harris is more of a project.
Well, Singleton is a 21 year old junior who averaged 13 points 7 boards on 43% shooting and 67% from the line. Harris is an 18 year old freshman who averaged 15 points and 7 boards on 46% shooting.

Singleton should be a good defender right off the bat, but a very poor offensive player. I don't really think he has much offensive upside. Just doesn't have the instincts to score or even be a great passer. His defense will be good enough to make him useful no matter what, and can be very good overall if his jump shot develops enough where he can make 35%+ from deep.

Harris is very young, but should be more of a two-way player. I think his athleticism is underrated just because of his body type. He's a little soft looking. But I think he's can contribute as a smart offensive player who can score, pass and handle the ball a bit. Not your go-to guy, but a guy who helps make everyone a bit better. Defensively, probably not a lockdown defender, but I think he can be above average. He's very smart and as mentioned above, I think his tools are underrated. He's 18 though. So while I think he will probably develop fairly quickly, that's just a very young dude in a man's league.
 
Well, Singleton is a 21 year old junior who averaged 13 points 7 boards on 43% shooting and 67% from the line. Harris is an 18 year old freshman who averaged 15 points and 7 boards on 46% shooting.

Singleton should be a good defender right off the bat, but a very poor offensive player. I don't really think he has much offensive upside. Just doesn't have the instincts to score or even be a great passer. His defense will be good enough to make him useful no matter what, and can be very good overall if his jump shot develops enough where he can make 35%+ from deep.

Harris is very young, but should be more of a two-way player. I think his athleticism is underrated just because of his body type. He's a little soft looking. But I think he's can contribute as a smart offensive player who can score, pass and handle the ball a bit. Not your go-to guy, but a guy who helps make everyone a bit better. Defensively, probably not a lockdown defender, but I think he can be above average. He's very smart and as mentioned above, I think his tools are underrated. He's 18 though. So while I think he will probably develop fairly quickly, that's just a very young dude in a man's league.
Actually I have Harris as one of my dark horses so I don't want to belittle him. I think he was hurt somewhat by having to play out of position. However, I don't think Singleton is a poor offensive player. When I think poor, I think Michael Smithish. He's not a guy thats going to jump up and suddenly give you 15 a night, but I think he can easily, with the minutes, give you 8 to 10 points a night, and be a lockdown defender. Since I believe thats what Westphal stated he wanted from his SF position, I have Siingleton rated as high as I do.

I was by no means trying to disparage either player. Just simply pointing out how a team might look at each player, and how they might judge them. Harris if one of those guys that three years from now, might be top 5 pick if the draft was redone. By the way, Singleton shot 36.8% from behind the arc last season, after working hard on his 3pt shot in the offseason. And while his 67% freethrow shooting definitely needs improving, his percentage has improved every year he's been in college. Harris shot 30.3% from the three. But as you said, he's very young, and playing PF last season didn't help him much.
 
Actually I have Harris as one of my dark horses so I don't want to belittle him. I think he was hurt somewhat by having to play out of position. However, I don't think Singleton is a poor offensive player. When I think poor, I think Michael Smithish. He's not a guy thats going to jump up and suddenly give you 15 a night, but I think he can easily, with the minutes, give you 8 to 10 points a night, and be a lockdown defender. Since I believe thats what Westphal stated he wanted from his SF position, I have Siingleton rated as high as I do.

I was by no means trying to disparage either player. Just simply pointing out how a team might look at each player, and how they might judge them. Harris if one of those guys that three years from now, might be top 5 pick if the draft was redone. By the way, Singleton shot 36.8% from behind the arc last season, after working hard on his 3pt shot in the offseason. And while his 67% freethrow shooting definitely needs improving, his percentage has improved every year he's been in college. Harris shot 30.3% from the three. But as you said, he's very young, and playing PF last season didn't help him much.
I like Singleton too. Potential lockdown wing defender who can also fill up the stat sheet with blocks and steals. And if he can stand in the corner and make 35% or more of his 3's he can be a great role-playing starter. But he's a SF, and I don't think he'll ever be able to do anything off the dribble or out of the post, which makes him a really poor offensive player in my book.

I'm just saying in my book, he and Tobias are on the same tier of prospects. There's a lot of players on that tier in this draft.
 
I like Singleton too. Potential lockdown wing defender who can also fill up the stat sheet with blocks and steals. And if he can stand in the corner and make 35% or more of his 3's he can be a great role-playing starter. But he's a SF, and I don't think he'll ever be able to do anything off the dribble or out of the post, which makes him a really poor offensive player in my book.

I'm just saying in my book, he and Tobias are on the same tier of prospects. There's a lot of players on that tier in this draft.
I agree with you on Singletons handles. Biggest weakness he has in my opinion. He's improved every year, but it keeps him from using his natual quickness, and when he trys, he sometimes ends up with a turnover. If he could dramaticly improve that part of his game, it would really improve his offensive game.
 
From the Salt Lake city tribune:

Fri Jun 10 07:48am EDT

Fredette wants to face off against Walker and Knight
By Mark J. Miller
Jimmer Fredette, the former Brigham Young University guard, will be working out for the Utah Jazz Wednesday, but the Salt Lake Tribune reports that he's willing to change the date if it means he can go up against some players that are currently ranked higher than him in most draft orders.

Two players in particular -- guards Kemba Walker of the University of Connecticut and Brandon Knight of the University of Kentucky -- are of interest to Fredette, the paper notes. "With his draft stock rising, Fredette wants to work out against Walker and Knight to prove that he can compete with the point guards, who are expected to be taken early during the first round," the Tribune writes.

The Jazz holds the No. 3 overall pick. Other possible players the Jazz could take with the selection include Turkish center Enes Kanter and Czech Republic forward Jan Vesely, the paper notes.

Source: Salt Lake Tribune
Related: Utah Jazz

Naturally Fredette would be a popular choice in Utah. You have to admire his willingness to go up against the best competition at his position. I guess one could say that he has nothing to lose, but I'd disagree with that. If he were to be embarressed by either or both, it could drop him back down to where he was originally slotted in the draft. If Utah were to take him at 3, which I seriously doubt, then the possiblity of Knight falling to us becomes greater. And the plot thickens.
 
A tweet from Scott Howard Cooper, who is in Italy watching Biyombo work out for NBA GM's:

SHowardCooper Scott Howard-Cooper
In a game here, Biyombo would light up the gym by flying around and overpowering players. In 1-on-0 drills, people see a lot of bad offense.
 
A tweet on Motiejunas: Apparently not helping himself.

DraftExpress Jonathan Givony
by sam_amick
Donatas Motiejunas working out in Treviso. Meaningless workout, but he's not doing himself any favors with how he's looking. Brick city.
 
Here's a little video of Fredette showing some of his warmup drills at a basketball camp for kids.

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/4/m7LlntVcVqE

Also, David Aldridge on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/6/_xiwnOsdSRc

Seth Davis, college basketball analyst on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/9/Rij-8hkESSA

Just trying to give as much info as I can about as many players as I can. Hopefully I can find as much about Walker after his workout.
 
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Final note on Fredette. He was scheduled to work out for the Jazz, but is rescheduling so he can workout the same day as Walker and Knight. He said he wants to go up against every PG thats projected to be drafted ahead of him. Its also rumored that Knight, while scheduled to work out on the same day as Walker, and now Fredette, still refuses to compete against other players in head to head competition. Has to be an agent thing. Bad move in my opinion and could cause him to slide.. Hey, maybe to us..

Edit: The rescheduling of Fredette's workout has yet to be approved. Most likely it will be. But as of now, it hasn't..
 
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Glenn

Hall of Famer
Its also rumored that Knight, while scheduled to work out on the same day as Walker, and now Fredette, still refuses to compete against other players in head to head competition. Has to be an agent thing. Bad move in my opinion and could cause him to slide.. Hey, maybe to us..

Although this is in the rumor stage, I can't see anything positive about this move unless he really isn't as good as the others and fears being exposed. Certainly most teams know where they place Knight in their list of hopefuls but I would drop him down if this rumor is true. That could cost him a lot of money. In the end, money is important.
 
Here's a little video of Fredette showing some of his warmup drills at a basketball camp for kids.

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/4/m7LlntVcVqE

Also, David Aldridge on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/6/_xiwnOsdSRc

Seth Davis, college basketball analyst on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/9/Rij-8hkESSA

Just trying to give as much info as I can about as many players as I can. Hopefully I can find as much about Walker after his workout.
In complete agreement with Aldridge on where Fredette's shots will come from.

On your other news, Knight is being drafted on his potential and his "improvement" throughout the year. It could only hurt him to go against Jimmer when Jimmer has something to prove. I'd love for the head-to-head matchup to happen, but if I was Knight's agent, I wouldn't let him do it either.

Appreciate all the updates.
 

Glenn

Hall of Famer
In complete agreement with Aldridge on where Fredette's shots will come from.

On your other news, Knight is being drafted on his potential and his "improvement" throughout the year. It could only hurt him to go against Jimmer when Jimmer has something to prove. I'd love for the head-to-head matchup to happen, but if I was Knight's agent, I wouldn't let him do it either.

Appreciate all the updates.
It sounded like Aldridge was talking about the Kings as to where Jimmer would fit best.
 
Here's a little video of Fredette showing some of his warmup drills at a basketball camp for kids.

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/4/m7LlntVcVqE

Also, David Aldridge on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/6/_xiwnOsdSRc

Seth Davis, college basketball analyst on Fredette:

http://www.youtube.com/user/FollowJimmer#p/u/9/Rij-8hkESSA

Just trying to give as much info as I can about as many players as I can. Hopefully I can find as much about Walker after his workout.
All one needs to do is listen to that DA interview and it's pretty obvious at that point that Jimmer is probably be best fit guy in the draft this year. Post up big? Yep. Dominant penetrating guard? Yep. Perfect fit all the way around.
 
In complete agreement with Aldridge on where Fredette's shots will come from.

On your other news, Knight is being drafted on his potential and his "improvement" throughout the year. It could only hurt him to go against Jimmer when Jimmer has something to prove. I'd love for the head-to-head matchup to happen, but if I was Knight's agent, I wouldn't let him do it either.

Appreciate all the updates.
I can appreciate where Knights agent is coming from. Point is, he won't let him workout against anyone. If your Utah and your debating between Walker, Knight and now Fredette, you stand the chance of getting passed over by Utah at three. Don't forget that Fredette would be a very popular choice in Utah, and they've already said their interested in Walker. But hey, it might end up helping us..
 
It sounded like Aldridge was talking about the Kings as to where Jimmer would fit best.
I was thinking the same thing. Started to get excited thinking about how it would open up the floor Tyreke to have that outside threat. Or how Jimmer could sit outside all day and wait for the drive and kick from Tyreke. Sounds like a match made in heaven.
 
I can appreciate where Knights agent is coming from. Point is, he won't let him workout against anyone. If your Utah and your debating between Walker, Knight and now Fredette, you stand the chance of getting passed over by Utah at three. Don't forget that Fredette would be a very popular choice in Utah, and they've already said their interested in Walker. But hey, it might end up helping us..
I could be completely off here, given it's speculation on my part, but if Utah passes on Knight, which isn't likely, but more probable by the day unless he faces Walker/Fredette, I think it's just as likely they take Vesley as it is they take Walker. They were apparently very impressed in the serbian championship, and personally having seen Vesley play 7-10 times, the comparisons to AK47 are not far off at all. I would think utah would be very intrigued with the idea of bringing along a 2nd coming of AK.