Prospect watch 2011

Sptsjunkie · Mar 19, 2011

Actually got to watch the Jimmer for the first time today. Nice to have some scouting to go with the stats. He's an interesting player and I can see the Curry comparison.

What I like is that his shooting is a good as advertised and he has a quick release, so he should be able to get his shot off in the NBA (especially coming off screens and playing off ball). He will be able to spread the floor in the NBA and will certainly have a role in the league for a long time. He also looks like a quicker and more complete player than the Trajon Langdon and JJ Redick types whose games didn't translate as well to the Pros. He's also a good passer. I don't think he's a pure PG, but he's not a black hole and does a good job of moving the ball and made some very nice looking passes too.

My concern is that he doesn't appear as quick as Curry. He also seemed to struggle scoring inside. Gonzaga looks like they have some decent bigs, but certainly not NBA caliber and Jimmer struggled to score in traffic inside and got blocked a few times. I can only imagine that it will get harder for him in the NBA. Seeing as how scoring inside is an issue for Curry as well, I think it's a reason to be concerned about Jimmer's ceiling, but really shouldn't affect his ability to be a very good NBA player. His D looks bad too. He's just not that laterally quick. Not a deal killer in the NBA, but if we pair him up with Reke, we really are going to want a shutdown defender at SF, so Reke doesn't have to be our #1 or 2 option on Offense and guard the other team's best 1/2/3 for 40+ minutes. Though he did get away with some soft passes that will get stolen pretty consistently in the NBA.

All in all, I certainly wouldn't mind putting him next to Reke, but would be nervous using a top 5 pick on him. I think he can have a career similar to Curry, though I think Curry's upside is higher. I think Jimmer will struggle with the speed of the NBA at first. Highly skilled, Less athletic players tend to take a bit longer to figure out how to use their skills in the more athletic, quicker NBA. Not to keep coming back to Curry, but remember he really struggled his first couple of months and had some atrocious shooting nights, before he figured out how to play smarter. With that said, his quick release and ability to spread the floor will be invaluable at the NBA level once he figures things out. He's also a good passer who will fit in well with team's utilizing a lot of ball movement and cutting. He would have been awesome on the 2002 Kings.

Arby's Roast Beef · Mar 19, 2011

Yeah, Brandon Knight's a combo guard--a PG/SG hybrid, and I can't really see that changing in the NBA--even Jimmer Fredette strikes me as more unselfish for sure. But he's developed into a very efficient scorer, has very good offensive growth potential in the NBA, and overall he'll be an above average offensive player in the NBA. I'm really concerned about his activity on the defensive side of the court though--he makes the worst number of defensive plays out of the 102 draft prospects I charted, and is also a very poor rebounder. I think I still have him pegged at around the mid-1st round by virtue of scouts loving to draft freshmen due to their perceived potential, but Knight in particular seems like a sparkplug scorer type through and through--mostly efficient scoring, but really lacking a bit in the passing and significantly on the defensive side. His game is actually a bit typical, and there might actually be bust potential if he doesn't ramp it up, I think, sadly to say.

Keith Benson's talented--he'll be an average offensive player in the NBA, but he'll shine on the defensive end--he's an excellent rebounder and shotblocker at the college level and has the sort of body to succeed in the NBA, and can become a patroller at the next level as he actually does a decent job at controlling his fouls. Offensively, he's efficient in what he does and has average offensive growth potential for the NBA, but his style of offense is quite poor and he pretty much never passes the ball. I think he'll go in the early 2nd round, maybe late 1st. Big men are always en vogue in the NBA.

Ray McCallum is a guy who just ranks highly with me. No one knows him that well since he plays with Detroit, a small school, but he's a gifted ballhandler and just incredibly unselfish--it's rare to actually find someone that unselfish yet talented at a small school. He's average in terms of scoring efficiency (in particular needs to develop the long ball) but has excellent growth potential as a scorer, as his scoring style will adjust well to the NBA. He's just an average jumpshooter as of now, but his slashing, ballhandling and passing are traditionally things that go well with the NBA. He doesn't appear to be a freak athlete though--he's a bit below average as a defensive player and underwhelming as a rebounder, but he's average overall on the non-offensive side of the court. He doesn't have high upside as he's not a freak athlete, but I can see shades of Ramon Sessions with him.

Harrison Barnes has been on a recent hot streak, but I'm still not sure about the end product. I think he'll be somewhere between average/slightly above average as an efficient scorer, and while he has okay growth potential his stroke still looks average to me. Moreover, his offensive style is on the poor side (quite mechanical) and he doesn't have much passing ability. Defensively, he struggles to make plays very badly (like Knight), and he's only an average rebounder. I have him on my mock at the late 20s (I still can't take that slow start off my head) and that could be generous since I take into account the fact that scouts always draft younger players higher. But he might go 8-15 in reality I think due to the excessive hype he got out of HS. He's just incredibly mechanical and doesn't make good use of his athleticism, and I can't see anything more than maybe Marvin Williams as the upside, maybe slightly better shooter but that's about it.

CJ Leslie--is just a wreck offensively. Extremely poor ball skills/court vision, extremely poor touch, and miniscule offensive growth potential. Terrible free throw shooter, poor at drawing fouls. Simply put, don't think he'll be much of an offensive player, period, ever--he's shown enough warts to hinder him for a lifetime. Why scouts are so high on him is that he's an excellent rebounder and will wreak significant havoc defensively as well, but he might be coasting on natural athletic ability. AT 6'8" 205 lbs as well, the rebounding might not translate that well. There's quite a bit of bust potential in him, he can really use another year to in particular show a pulse offensively--he's well below average in almost every offensive category across the board. Shades of Ndudi Ebi?

LaceDarius Dunn is an interesting case. Incredibly talented as a scorer, yet also incredibly selfish. Let me put it this way: if he was only average in terms of selfishness, he would probably go in the mid-1st. Among guard prospects, only Durrell Summers of Michigan State is only worse than him in selfishness, and he's almost likely to go undrafted anyway. Dunn's scoring efficiency is excellent--his primary shooting stats are meh, but his secondaries are great--he jacks up tons of threes and gets to the line amazingly well for such a jumpshooter. He's a very good, near natural shooter whose scoring role is NBA-caliber, but in any offense if he doesn't amp up the passing ability he'll alienate tons of teammates (probably alienated Perry Jones at Baylor due to his tendencies). He does have a lot of weaknesses on the other end of the court, as he lacks athleticism and struggles to make much of an impact defensively, and he's a poor rebounder. His scoring role should end up putting him in the 2nd round somewhere, because his scoring style and shooting ability is incredibly valuable, but will it make up for all his deficiencies defensively, and particularly, with his selfishness? He plays a selfish style of game that just might not be tolerated in spite of the talent.

I've always liked Chandler Parsons out of Florida. Although he's an inefficient scorer, he does have reasonable offensive growth potential in the NBA, because he does take college threes and can slash the ball. It's doubtful whether he'll have NBA three point range, since he's just a poor shooter though. But he's incredibly versatile--he's in the top 5 of my prospects in just pure unselfishness/ballhandling ability, and his point forward ability at 6'9" will have a huge role in the NBA. On the other end he's quite a good rebounder but struggles defensively to make plays. A unique player who might actually thrive more in the NBA game due to his versatility, he has the basic skeleton of a versatile player but in particular needs to refine the jumper. He's a bit passive offensively, so there's a chance that he won't be much of a scorer in the league.

Kenneth Faried is the guy everyone loves to tout. He's probably the best defensive player in the college game, even adjusting to poor competition. He's a beast on the defensive side--a maniacal rebounder and equally excellent at wreaking defensive havoc, and despite standing 6'8" his numbers here are so outrageous (for 4 years too!) they can most likely translate. He's efficient as a scorer, but there's little offensive growth potential--his style of scoring is poor and he's pretty much got no jumper to speak of. He also lacks ball skills and court vision. Largely his role is to collect garbage buckets and wreak defensive havoc in the NBA, and apparently that defensive havoc might be enough to get him in the first round. I personally still think he's somewhere in the early 2nd, but he can be good enough to go 1st--would be good to see GMs draft defense above offense as well.

Everyone also talks about Jimmer of course--The guy is just excellent in nearly every facet of the offensive game. He's the most efficient scorer in the college game, and it's not even close despite the fact that he creates so many off-balanced, contested shots nightly. Needless to say he's got excellent offensive growth potential, as he's a lights out shooter and can slash and hit threes at a good pace. He's also underrated in PG skills--he's better than most combos and while he's not a true PG, he's somewhere in between and can get assists at a decent rate. Good ballhandler and quite unselfish for a scorer for sure. Of course his lack of athleticism always raises eyebrows--he's a terrible rebounder and below average at making defensive plays, and he gives the impression that he always conserves his energy for offense because he never fouls. There's little doubt that NBA teams will need to hide him defensively on the worst player on the court--he's very poor here. But he can carve a similar career like JJ Redick and maybe better, since he's simply incredible offensively, but he'll need to find the right team. Unlike someone say LaceDarius Dunn above, Jimmer's PG skills can catapult him all the way to the top 15 in the draft--that's how valuable that scoring style is.

Khris Middleton is the mold of an NBA scorer--he's got slightly above average scoring efficiency as of now, but he's got excellent potential to develop as a NBA scorer, as he's a good shooter and can slash and hit the three. He's a SG-level passer, for better or for worse, but he's really a scorer anyway. He's an average rebounder and a bit poor defensively, but all in all he's average at the other end of the court. Prototypical scorer for the NBA, but not a lot of real versatility in other facets of the game. He can come out this year and probably be a mid-1st rounder if he chooses. Maybe a stronger Nick Young type.

Brad Wanamaker was the most unselfish player out of the 102 prospects I charted, and probably for good reason--he's very poor in scoring efficiency. He does have quite good potential to translate his offensive game better in the NBA though, he can really slash, handle and pass the ball decently, and that's a good quality in the NBA. He's got a poor jumper though and isn't excellent at creating shots for himself, though, and that might really hinder his real offensive potential. Wanamaker's slightly below average as a defender and a rebounder, but he can hold his own on the other end of the court. He's ultimately a beauty in the eye of the beholder player--purists who like guards who can shoot will hate him, but he does quite a number of things well on the offensive side other than shooting he can probably a carve a role for himself. Probably a 40s pick and beyond when all is said and done. Antonio Daniels redux?

Spike · Mar 19, 2011

I was at the games at the Pepsi Center today - here's what I noticed.

Richmond vs. Morehead St.
Kenneth Faried - Richmond played great team D against Faried, and dared the rest of the team to beat them. There was always someone on Faried, and a double ready at all times. It was like all 5 Spiders knew where he was at all times. Not sure how it looked on TV, but they definitely game-planned for him defensively. Offensively, Richmond was patient against Morehead State's zone, which allowed them to work the baseline well, and I didn't think that Faried looked all that great on the defensive end. Looking at the stats, he apparently got 13 rebounds, but they were not any of consequence. Richmond played a good team game, and Morehead State never adjusted. Part of it I guess was Faried's lack of ball-handling skills, as they could have moved him up the elbow, but I got the sense that he didn't have the ability to create for himself, as he always tried to park himself on the block. He had some nice blocks and a good dunk as the result of a defensive breakdown. He did have one nice move where his defender fell down, I suppose.

BYU vs. Gonzaga
Jimmer is great at getting his own shot and has a lightning quick release. He did a fairly good job of finding the open person, but BYU did a great job of spreading the floor. Gonzaga missed a lot of inside shots that would have made the game closer, but the entire BYU team seemed to be hot from the outside. Not sure when the law of averages will catch up. I think only 3 of his shots were ill-advised. 2 if you don't count the last one he took before the half, which had a pretty good shot of going in, actually. Jimmer also has pretty good body control and awareness. His motion in the lane and his ability to get to the rack against a reasonably athletic Gonzaga front line bears that out. We'll see how he looks against Florida, which is a more athletic team.

Jimmer is a sub-par ball handler, if you're looking at projecting him to the next level. There were a couple of times when he almost lost the ball with minimal pressure, in addition to the various turnovers he did have. I would worry about pairing him next to Reke, as his defense, even with the 2-3 zone, was woeful. To be fair, so was the rest of the team's defense, but when you're scoring 80 points I guess it doesn't matter.

Sacre had a decent game. He got a lot of good feeds inside the crappy 2-3 defense, and converted quite a few, but he also had some misses at point-blank range, which you just can't have vs. a good offensive team. I thought the gameplan to feed him inside would have worked in the long haul, but BYU just never missed, and the Zags got cold. Where does he (Sacre) project? He had some nice moves inside, and even played some good D on Jimmer, which was interesting to see a 7 footer outside the 3 like that.

MassachusettsKingsFan · Mar 19, 2011

Kemba Walker the player is really really good .. He has a ton of talent, but everyone already knows that.

Its the other stuff that I really like about him.. The toughness, the leadership, the clutch factor... He just seems like he 'gets it'.

Whatever team drafts him is getting one nice player.

kingsboi · Mar 19, 2011

Brandon Knight is a G. I would not be surprised if his draft stock rises after the tourny.

bajaden · Mar 19, 2011

Sptsjunkie said:

I'm not sure who was talking about Knight as a top five pick, but it wasn't me. I have Knight currently ranked at number 13 on my list. If he continues to play like he did in the last game, I may move him up a few spots. But I certainly don't have him in the top five.

bajaden · Mar 19, 2011

Sptsjunkie said:

In the game before, Jimmer's outside shot wasn't dropping, so he scored almost all of his points in the paint. He's very good at getting to the basket. Today he seldom tried since he was hitting his outside shot. He's a pretty savy player and usually just takes what the defense gives him. Also remember, there's no 3 second rule in college, so bigs just park themselves under the basket and play goalie. Whole different game in the NBA. I'd also like to point out that prior to the draft and about this time of the year, the biggest knock on Curry was that he wasn't very athletic and wasn't very quick. Sound familiar. For those that didn't watch the game, the final stat line for Fredette was 34 points on 11 of 23 shooting overall and 7 or 12 from beyond the arc. He also had 6 assists, and just for the hell of it, I counted all the assists he should have had. Three of which were nice passes to a player right under the basket which were missed. If you add the 6 he could have had to the assists he should, or could have had it adds up to 14 assists. So don't let anyone tell you he can't pass the ball.

bajaden · Mar 19, 2011

Spike said:

Jimmer had a couple of mishaps handling the ball today, but trust me, he's not subpar. He's a pretty good ballhandler. You can't score as many points in the paint as he does and be a subpar ballhandler. I've seen Tyreke dribble the ball off his foot a few times. That doesn't make him a subpar ballhandler. Just means he made a mistake.

Sacre had improved his game this year. I guess getting more playing time helps as well. He has some nice post moves and a decent body. His problem is that he's not very mobile and is useless away from the basket. So he pretty much camps out under or near the basket. He won't be able to do that in the NBA.

I had BYU and Gonzaga matched up on my bracket. My problem is that I had Gonzaga winning the game. I just felt that with Gonzaga's height advantage inside and decent outside scoring, that BYU wouldn't be able to match up against them. I was rooting for BYU though, so I don't mind my bracket getting screwed up. Great press for the Mtn conference. They have two teams with SDSU and BYU both making the sweet 16. I'am ticked off at Pitt. I had them in my final four. I'd say that Florida now has the best shot from that part of the bracket.

Sptsjunkie · Mar 20, 2011

bajaden said:

It was one game, so I could be wrong about him inside. Although, I am not saying he can't score there against college teams. Last game BYU was playing a 14 seed and I'm not sure how good Wofford is defensively inside. Today against a team that has some length and athleticism inside he appeared to struggle to score inside. Maybe it was an aberration, but it makes me it raises red flags about that part of his game, since players are much more athletic and weak side help tends to be better in the NBA.

Yeah, I see the Curry comparison, but I do think Curry is quicker.

And agree, his passing was good. And his teammate who missed what would have been a wide open layup under the hoop (if he'd shot it instead of looking for where the D was) owes Jimmer an assist.

sterö · Mar 20, 2011

Which are your favourite players for our 2nd rounder, baja?

Glenn · Mar 20, 2011

sterö said:

That's an impossible question, in all fairness. Petrie has been pretty good in finding 2nd rounders (or else our team has sucked so bad 2nd rounders have been necessary.)

Thornton was picked 43rd which is a head scratcher. There is a long history of the occasional 2nd rounder bursting onto the scene. Finding them is the trick and heading to Europe or Africa may not be the worst idea in the world.

On a different topic, Jimmer has a special place on any team. He is unique. He may be indifferent to defense but his ability to get open with a quick one step lateral move is striking. I think he'd be fun and fun IS a part of basketball.

And isn't he saving energy because he is BYU's offense?

I know there are wiser picks but this is one of those unique guys where I would not hang Petrie in effigy if we picked him. Totally for fun now. I don't need a lecture.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

Sptsjunkie said:

I've said this a thousand times, and I'll say it again, and this is not an attack on you. But you can't just watch one of two games and know a player. I've watched every single game BYU has played except 2. Amost all their games are broadcast on the MTN channel along with SDSU's games. If I went just by one game I might have accidently seen the early game where Fredette went off for 40 plus points, and then though my god, he can't miss. Or I might have seen a game where he scored 23 pts on 6 of 20 shooting and thought, man this guy needs a lot of shots to get his points.

My point is, I've seen games where he attacked the basket relentlessly against teams that were big inside. I made the statement that he takes what the other team gives him. Thats what smart players do. If the other team has a Bill Russell under the basket, you might want to take more jumpers away from the basket, instead of trying to prove you can drive on anyone. Because you don't, doesn't mean you can't. It just means your smart. Just so you know, the guy that was guarding Jimmer last night in that game is known for his defense. How did that go for Gonazga.

Here's what I've learned about Fredette over the last three years. If you tell him that the guy guarding him is a lock down defender, he's going to go out and light him up. In all the games I've watched this year, I haven't seen one player, that by himself, stop Fredette. When Fredette gets to the NBA, I think folks will find that he's quicker than they think. He played almost all 40 minutes of yesterdays game. In the prior 4 games he did play all 40 minutes. BYU needs him on the floor at all times, because without him, they have little or no offense. He's the reason his teammates get open shots. His own coach said in an interview that they didn't ask Fredette to play defense, because of the minutes he's asked to play, and the energy he has to put out on the offensive side of the ball. You watched the game yesterday. Tell me when he ever stopped moving on offense. Name the one or two times he actually had an open shot that he didn't have to fight for.

Look the Kings aren't going to draft Fredette. Its just that I've watched this guy for a long time now. He was one of my favorite players last year. I just want him to get his due, and its easy to criticize a player without all the information. Don't get me wrong! He has some warts, just like a lot of players in this years draft. But he's not the one deminsional player a lot of people try to describe him as.

MassachusettsKingsFan · Mar 20, 2011

Kendall Marshall would do wonders for the Kings. Just a classic set up the offense point guard. Pretty good size too. Doesnt do anything great just yet, but he is young and very solid.

I'm not sure he'll enter the draft this year, because another year at UNC could do wonders for his draft stock .. but if he does and somehow makes it into the second round, he's a guy I'd take a look at.

Kingster · Mar 20, 2011

kingsboi said:

Ditto. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to the top 5.

Kingster · Mar 20, 2011

Here is my top 4:

1A. D. Williams
1B. K. Irving
2. Walker
3. B. Knight - just watch his stock go up from here on out. The caveat with Knight is that he makes too many turnovers. Forget about it. He's got the DNA. It's not congenital, it's something that be overcome through experience and his above average brain power. He's got "it".

All of those players would be great additions to the Kings. My caveat is that I've only seen Irving play once, but he impressed with his smoothness and outside shooting , and I'm betting "the experts" are right about him.

Regarding Jimmer - the Genie gave him one wish - to have the best outside shot in basketball. He didn't give him his other two - to have above average NBA athleticism or to be a very good ball handler. Jimmer will be exploited in the NBA on defense. He's not a two-way player. And he's got a lot of work to do to get his left hand dribbling down. Virtually everything with Jimmer is right, right, right. And when he goes left, he turns to his right to shoot. On two occassions using his left hand he dribbled the ball off his foot. Even taking a couple of dribbles to his left and raising up for a jump shot, he couldn't convert. I think he made one shot going to his left today - a nice driving layup. But the Genie did give him his one wish, and that covers up a heckuvalot of other weaknesses. How quick do you have to be on offense if you can shoot from 35 feet? Basically, he allows his team to play a 4 on 4 game and he opens up the floor considerably by doing that. Just for fun the coach should have go to the half court and line when they are on offense and see if the other team guards him out there. I'm not sure whether Jimmer deserves to be #5, but he should definitely be in the top 10. There are too many pretenders out there, and he's not one of them.

The pretenders: The Jones's and H Barnes until he transforms by donning the Superman cape. I don't think he has elite athleticism like some do; he's too mechanical. I still haven't seen the transformation that others talk about. The Jones's are blah and blahher. Overhypped.

Vlade4GM · Mar 20, 2011

I think Irving is a surefire star PG. He's a true PG with a very high IQ, a jump shot, good size, and he plays defense. I love that he's in the traditional throwback mold of a PG, not the speed demons that just wildly charge the basket and draw a foul. I hope we get the number 1 so bad.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

sterö said:

Good question. If I'm just going on my favorites, and not who might be available, then I'll break them down by position. And bear in mind that some of these guys may end up in the bottome of the first round.

PG: Demetri McCamey, Illinois. More of a pass first PG, but a good shooter.

Kalin Lucas, Mich St. I have serious doubts about the height.

Isaiah Thomas, Washington. Only 5'8", if that, but he had a great year. Athletic!

Norris Cole, Cleveland St. Another on the small side, but very effective.

Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin. Great outside shooter. Carried the team at times.

Jacob Pullem, Kansas St. He did a great job this year running the team.

SG: William Buford, Ohio St. Athletic, and good outside shooter but inconsistent at times

Austin Freeman, Georgetown. Been injured, but very underrated player.

John Jenkins, Vanderbilt. Great shooter, and very consistent this year.

Klay Thompson, Wash. St. Can play SF as well. Athletic and good shooter

Malcom Lee, UCLA. Combo guard that can play some PG. Good defender

SF: D.J. Kennedy, St. Johns. Up and down season, but very skilled.

Elias Harris, Gonazga. Erratic shooter at times, Good IQ, average athlete.

Rodney Williams, Minnesota. Athletic player with upside.

Vernon Macklin, Florida. Great size at 6'9". Good defender

Chandler Parsons, Florida. Doesn't look like a player. Very skilled and 6'10"

Justin Harper, Richmond. Plays PF, but will be a SF in NBA. Good outside shot.

PF: JaJuan Johnson, Purdue. Very skilled player, but on the light side. Needs strength.

Jordan Williams, Maryland. Great size, post player. Good rebounder.

Trey Thompkins, Georgia. Could slide into bottom of first round. Good size.

Renardo Sidney, Miss. St. Attitude problems, but extremely skilled post player.

Nikola Vucevic, UCLA. Talented kid. Big part of UCLA's success.

John Leuer, Wisconsin. Doesn't look like much, but gets the job done.

Centers: The pickings get slim here. Some of the PF's listed play center for their teams. If I'm talking favorites, then there's only two guys that intrigue me. Other than some international players.

Keith Benson, Oakland. Good athlete, and great shotblocker. Decent, but not great offensive game

Josh Smith, UCLA. Needs to lose some weight at 300 pounds, but his production per minutes played is what intrigues me. He's a freshman, so he'll probably stay in school another year. Shows potential.

Arby's Roast Beef · Mar 20, 2011

Nolan Smith's an attempted converted PG, but to me his passing skills are on the lower end of the combo guard scale--he won't really be a passer at all at the next level. However, he's a good enough shooter and incredibly efficient offensively, and while his offensive construct is ordinary based on his good shooting there is good growth potential for the NBA. He might just suffer severely defensively though--he seriously lacks rebounding ability and struggles to make plays on the defensive side. He'll be drafted pretty much for his offensive game only, but there's just not a whole lot to work with for him. A bit typical as a 6'3" scorer, but with his pedigree probably somewhere in the latter half of the 2nd round.

Jan Vesely is an enigma to me--he's a slightly below average defender at the next level, because he's ordinary defensively but just can't rebound the ball well at all for a big. Incredibly foul prone. Offensively, he's very poor and has can't really shoot jumpers, but he there's a glimmer of hope: he has good offensive growth potential because his offensive construct will translate to the next level. He's also as surprisingly decent ballhandler and is quite unselfish. All in all there's slight potential offensively, but right now his game is just terrible on both ends of the court. He'll be drafted strictly on potential, but most GMs do that with Euro players anyway. I just don't think he'll amount to anything--too many weaknesses at this stage.

Reggie Jackson's an unheralded sleeper in all of this. He definitely has PG skills for sure and can play it in the NBA, even though he isn't a true PG. He's also quite the efficient scorer and overall his offense will look very good for the next level. He's an average jumpshooter and has a bit of a fairly predictable style of offense, however, so that growth potential is just slightly above average, but he's a ready-made guard with both scoring and passing ability as his major assets. He doesn't slash as much as one might hope, though. On the other end, Jackson can also be a slightly above average defender at the next level--he's a very good rebounder although his rate of defensive plays is below average. There's some potential as a scorer/passer/defender type for Jackson, and while is scoring is predictable his ability in those other areas can make up for it. He's probably a 2nd round steal in this draft.

Damian Saunders is best known as his rate of defensive plays while controlling his fouls--he was first among the 102 I charted, although he's only an average/slightly above average rebounder--either way, he has real defensive lockdown potential at the SF position for the league. Offensively, Saunders will be quite poor at the next level--he's slightly below average in efficiency and even worse in terms of NBA growth potential for offense, with a mechanical offensive game and a very poor shooting stroke to show for it. However, a good thing is that he's highly unselfish and has some ball skills and court vision. Overall, his potentially elite defense is what will get him in the league, and he could hope for a Luc Richard Mbah a Moute type role here.

I've got a lot of grief for ranking Demetri McCamey a bit low initially, and I'll probably retract my opinion right about now. The guy can really do quite a bit of damage offensively--he can be an elite passer at the next level and he has very good ballhandling ability. Offensively, he's only average in efficiency and might have a below average jumper, but his offensive construct can translate fairly well to the NBA and he might look better in the NBA offensively than in college because of it. He does have reasonable growth potential and can be a pretty good offensive player in the league on the strength of his passing ability (which at 6'3" might bring comparisons of another former Fighting Illini D-Will, but I'm not sure if his jumper's just as good even though he's shooting it well this season). Another thing is that McCamey lacks athleticism--he's on the chunky side and he's very poor defensively and struggles severely to rebound despite the height, and he will be quite the poor defender at the next level. It will depend on his offense ultimately--I think he can become a good offensive player if he puts the work in it and the height/elite passing ability is a huge boon, and it probably will make GMs draft him in the second half of the second round somewhere.

Josh Selby severely needs to develop his PG skills to probably stick it in the league--right now his passing ability is not even close, as his unselfishness/court vision/ballhandling is at strict SG levels. As a SG, he's got poor efficiency and his offensive game is a bit mechanical, but he has does reasonable offensive potential given that he appears to be a good shooter--overall though, I can't really see him being much of an offensive player at the next level at this stage, as he's just riding on the potential of good shooting ability. Defensively he's just overmatched--he's a terrible rebounder and doesn't make defensive plays, and he might just be very poor at the next level. He just hasn't shown much in terms of NBA-viable and moreover, NBA-differentiating skills, and he definitely needs another year to develop.

Iman Shumpert has just always been underrated in my eyes. Yes, people think he's out of control (read: turnover prone) and can't shoot, two death knells for prospective NBA point guards, and those are definitely true. But he actually has decent PG skills for the next level--he's unselfish and has good ballhandling ability when he's controlled. Shumpert's jumper is average, but his offensive construct caters to the next level--he can slash and take quite a few threes (even though his jumper's unreliable at this point). As a result he's remarkably quite efficient as an offensive player. Shumpert might make his mark defensively--at 6'4" he's very good at intercepting everything and wreaking havoc defensively, as he's first among PGs in this category, and even though he's slightly below average at rebounding he can be a good defensive player at the next level. So despite the flaws, I see that he can become a reasonable offensive player, and at 6'4", his good passing and defensive abilities will also help him a lot. Immense sleeper potential with him, and if teams can get him to rein it in a bit he'll be just fine.

Mason Plumlee's just your naturally skilled/athletic type player. He's a good rebounder who can make a lot of defensive plays with his length and size (steals and blocks), and just looks to be a very good defensive player for the next level. Offensively there's really no hope for him to develop--he's absolutely atrocious in terms of scoring efficiency and equally atrocious in scoring upside, as he has no range, his handles are nonexistent and an incredibly predictable style of offense. A plus is that he's very unselfish and ranks among the top 6-7 big men in that category among draft prospects. But he's really a big athletic body who can rebound and in particular defend quite well, but at 210 lbs he really needs to pack the pounds to hold his own against NBA athletes. He could seriously use another year, because he's a 1-way defensive player and could stand to improve his offense to make himself more NBA-viable. If not, he'll get some looks in the late 2nd round somewhere.

Joshua Smith might just need another year to gain a greater foothold in UCLA's offense--he's efficient, but there needs to be a greater sample space to see what sort of impact he has there. He's got few ball skills, rarely looking to pass the ball and looking like a black hole at times. I'm also questioning his offensive upside--his offensive game is relatively mechanical and he's also got a poor jumper as of now, but right now I can see him being an average offensive player of sorts in the NBA. Defensively he can be slightly above average in making plays but he's just such an absolute hack, but he's a pretty good rebounder. If his conditioning's up to snuff, he can be a slightly above average defensive player in the league. I'm not seeing real star power out of Smith, and he'll most definitely come back to school, but I do think that in the NBA he might actually be a defensive player than an offensive if he puts his mind to it. There's too many questions about his conditioning, his range, his fouls and his ball skills at this point, and at 6'9" 280 lbs he doesn't have the most ideal body frame. I can see maybe a better rebounding Glen Davis at the extent here.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

MassachusettsKingsFan said:

As you know, I love Kendall Marshall. From everything I've read on him, he's staying at least another year at school. But you never know. When these players start talking to scouts and getting good feedback, they sometimes decide to test the waters. He may be the best pure PG in college. He does have some flaws, but the kid is very young. If he's in the second round, I'd grab him in a heartbeat.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

Kingster said:

Not sure how many times you've seen Fredette play this year, but I've seen him use his left hand a ton of times. I think he's laid up the ball with his left hand just as many times as he has with his right. He handles the ball just fine. Is he in the same arena as Tyreke? No, but his ballhandling isn't a liability. I mean the dude has two guys attacking him every time he touches the ball.

As for Barnes, I don't recall anyone saying that he was an elite athlete. I never have. I said he was a good athlete, or an above average athlete, but not an elite or freak athlete. I certainly don't think he mechanical. He's a very fluid player. My only knock on him right now is that his 3pt shot is inconsistent. But his shooting fourm is good. I'm not sure what your looking for from him. He plays decent to at times very good defense. He shut down Kyle Singler in the one game against Duke.

As for the Jones boys. I still like Terrence. He has some flaws that need to be fixed, but he has a lot of skills that he uses. Perry also has a lot of skills, that he doesn't use.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

Vlade4GM said:

I like Irving a lot. He does have speed. He just doesn't use it the same way Rose and Wall do. As a result, some don't think he's that quick. But everyonce in a while, you'll see him turn it on. But most of the time he just plays under control.

MassachusettsKingsFan · Mar 20, 2011

Arby's Roast Beef said:

I think I mentioned Jackson once, but havent lately because I feel like I might think a little more highly of him than I should because Ive seen him so many times. BC is the only basketball team in my area where every game is on TV, So along with UCONN, BC is the team I've watched the most.

Jackson is a really good player. He's has a freakish 7ft wingspan. Can score a bunch of different ways. He's pretty streaky right now, but of course he is young, he can get better, and I think he'd be a steal in the second round. Chad Ford today said he's inching his way into the lottery though, so I wouldnt count on him lasting that long.

Kingster · Mar 20, 2011

bajaden said:

Regarding Jimmer, so apparently you think he has no issues with his left hand. Was everything I saw a function of chance then? Did it just happen to be his bad left hand day?

Regarding Barnes, if he's not a great outside shooter, what good is he? Is he that good of a defender? What makes you like him so much? He's not at all fluid. We'll disagree on that. He and T. Jones are both mechanical. I think in the NBA they will be dependent upon others making plays for them, not the other way around.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

Kingster said:

You have this problem, and its the same problem you had last year and the year before. You watch a player once or twice and you think thats it. I didn't think Fredette handled the ball all that well in the last game period. With either hand. And yes, he just had a bad day handling the ball. Just like players have bad days shooting the ball. In the last game he shot the ball well from the outside, and didn't really take the ball to the basket that much. In the game before he didn't shoot the ball all that well, and scored almost all of is points by driving to the basket. If you watch one game, you'd think he's not good at driving to the basket. If you watch the other, you'd think he's not that good an outside shooter.

As far Barnes. I spent most of the year ragging on him because of his poor play. but for the last 10 to 15 games, he's been impoving rapidly. Does he have flaws? yes!!!!!!!!!! But he's freaking 18 years old!!!!!!!! For crying out loud, just what the hell do you expect from 18 yr old's? Do I think he'll be a superstar? No!!!!!! But I think he's starting to show that he can be a good player in the NBA.

Now maybe I've been watching basketball too long and I'm now incapable of telling if a player is mechanical or fluid, because neither T. Jones or Barnes looks mechanical to me. To me, mechanical means they look like they're thinking about it before they do it. That hardly describes Jones who plays more like a loose cannon than a mechanical player. And my description doesn't describe Barnes either. I think early on in the season, Barnes did go through a feeling out period trying to find out what he could and could not do. But right now he looks a lot more comfortable out there.

By the way, despite his bad left hand, he only turned the ball over 3 times, which isn't bad when you consider he handles the ball most of the time. Here's a quote from Draftexpress on Fredette.

"He creates a huge chunk of his offense (68% according to Synergy Sports Technology) on his own, be it in isolation situations, in transition or in pick-and-roll sets—in that order. He's an excellent ball handler who is capable of dribbling with either hand and is very adept at splitting screens. And he's as shifty as they come, given his ability to play at different speeds."

=LarryLegend= · Mar 20, 2011

Don't know if this has been posted but Coach Cal said this about Knight another reason why I like this kid. Kings need that type of player. I have read Tyrekes work ethic is also pretty good. Thornton himself seems to be very similar.

“(Knight) is a terrific player and an unbelievable kid,” Calipari said. “ … All the players I've coached — and I've had guys that would live in the practice facility, literally — I've never seen a guy with this kid's work ethic.”

kingsboi · Mar 20, 2011

Laugh out loud at Irving getting all his points from the free throw line basically.

Dime Dropper · Mar 20, 2011

Derrick Williams came up huge for Arizona. Great defense on the inbounds, and the huge three-point play to win it for the Cats. Really like the guy, to me he is definitely athletic enough to play SF, and there's nothing not to like. Solidifying himself as my second choice after Irving.

Dime Dropper · Mar 20, 2011

bajaden said:

Irving can really put on the jets when he wants to. This will become more obvious in the NBA when he has more space to work with.

Arby's Roast Beef · Mar 20, 2011

I like D.J. Kennedy, but man the offensive passivity can be grating--that's why all the draftniks in the various boards have completely dropped him out of the radar despite the fact that he looks and plays like a NBA talent. Kennedy has combo guard skills packed in a 6'6" body, and that's the main appeal, but as an offensive player the passivity makes him an inefficient, infrequent scorer. He's an average jumpshooter though, and he does attempt to slash and shoot from deep, so the offensive construct might be more beneficial in the NBA for him--that's why I think his offensive upside in the league is actually quite high. But he needs to be able to create shots for himself rather than be the 4th best player on the floor in the NBA. Another thing is that defensively he's quite good--he's above average at making defensive plays and also a good rebounder and overall can be a good to very good defender. The 6'6" PG skills and defense will endear him to teams like the T-Wolves and Lakers who use the Triangle, and he's probably better for a team in the playoff hunt where his versatility can be incredibly useful. Probably won't be much of a scorer, but passing and defense packed with height is useful--a 30s-40s pick.

John Jenkins' main forte will be scoring through and through in the league--he's very efficient as a scorer and is 2nd out of the 102 prospects in what I call offensive growth potential (even better than Fredette)--and that's because he recognizes his niche as a three point shooter and will jack up tons, and he's also a relatively good slasher given how much he shoots from outside. And of course, he's a lights-out shooter in this league. However, he's only average in terms of ballhandling and passing ability, so in this respect he's somewhere between Jimmer Fredette and LaceDarius Dunn here as undersized shooters go. Where Jenkins struggles severely is the defensive end--he lacks athleticism and as a 6'4" SG he will just get mauled here in the NBA--he was in the bottom four players (out of 102) in terms of rebounding and making defensive plays, and needless to say he's an atrocious defender at the next level. While he has a clear offensive identity and a splendid offensive game, the really terrible defense alone might knock him out of first round considerations--and that doesn't include his average passing and lack of height for the position. He's unidimensional and can use another year in college to fine tune maybe the passing ability, because otherwise he's probably somewhere in the mid to latter half of the 2nd round (certified shooters do have use in the league, so you can't discount him).

If William Buford is to make it, he'll have to do it as a 6'5" PG. He does have enough point guard skills to play it for a prolonged amount of time, actually, as he's unselfish and has good ballhandling/court vision. But offensively there's little upside to his game since he's just very passive and his offensive game is incredibly predictable--he only possesses average efficiency, is an average jumpshooter and can't create enough shots for himself or for others. He's not athletic either--he makes very few plays defensively and rebounds at a below average pace, and he might struggle here at the next level. There isn't much to work with for Buford, as he doesn't have a real strength to hang his hat on, and lacks the creating ability that might optimize his passing a bit more. I see him as a Europe player.

David Lighty is a similar player to Buford, but a 5th year version (also Ohio State, incidentally). Lighty like Buford has some real PG skills and at 6'5" that's useful, but he really struggles with his offensive efficiency, even though this part may appear better in the NBA as he does get to the basket and take threes at a reasonable pace. While he's been hitting threes the last several years, his jumper appears to be very poor, and it might not translate that well to the league, and like Buford he can't really create shots excessively so his scoring might end up being miniscule in the league. Lighty comes out of college with a defensive rep, but I'm not sure if he has the athleticism to really hold on--he's relatively poor at making defensive plays and struggles to board, but the hope is that he can be like an Arron Afflalo here and play good contain defense with toughness and movable feet. At the end he might be like Afflalo with a worse shot and better passing ability, but he needs to land in the right situation. Can be a beauty in the eye of the beholder type prospect for teams that appreciate veteran savvy out of rookies, but the lack of athleticism and questionable shooting might turn off purists.

Tyler Honeycutt just looks like a natural on the court--at 6'8" he has combo guard skills/ballhandling and can play PG in pinch situations even. Regarding his own offense he'll probably be relatively average in the league--he's average in efficiency and has just slightly above average offensive upside, as his jumper's pretty poor even though he has an OK offensive construct. Defensively Honeycutt is just excellent--he contests shots well and makes a lot of defensive plays, and he's an excellent rebounder for someone of his position, and he can be a very good defensive player in this league. There has been chatter that Honeycutt is "soft" or that he doesn't maximum effort, but even in his current effort he's impressive--he's just such a natural player, and at 6'8" his passing ability combined with his freakish defensive potential gives him a lot of that "versatile" upside that many GMs crave. The offense might not ever fully develop into star levels, but his all around game can make him a good 3rd option at his peak. Quite a unique player, a longer, skinnier early version of Andre Iguodala can be the upside. Definite lottery pick.

Darius Morris is a real playmaker with unselfishness/ballhandling skills (only behind Brad Wanamaker in that unselfishness quotient I measured) and having pure PG skills at 6'4" is a huge asset for the NBA. Offensively, he won't stand out in the NBA--his efficiency is slightly above average but he's just ok in offensive upside, as his offensive construct is predictable. Moreover, his jumper's below average and it's really hard to see if he'll ever develop three point range for the league in particular. On the other end of the floor Morris is just terrible--he doesn't really contest passing lanes and he's equally a terrible rebounder, and his defense might be very poor in the league because of that. He isn't a freak athlete or a great shooter/defender, so he can use another year to improve his shooting ability to enhance his chances as a prospect. Nonetheless, he might get a few looks at the latter half of the second round this year due to the height in combination with pure PG skills.

Rodney Williams pretty much will be a terrible offensive player in the NBA--really terrible offensive efficiency with poor offensive upside, as his offensive game is predictable and his shooting touch is terrible. He is unselfish by default and seems to be able to play some pinch point guard at times, but he struggles to create at this end overall. His only NBA hope is through his defense--he can make defensive plays at a very good rate in the NBA, and although he's a slightly below average rebounder, he can be an above average defender at the next level. He's incredibly unidimensional (only defense) for the NBA and there's not much hope for his offense overall. His athleticism, defense, and unselfishness might earn him some looks, but given that his rebounding and shooting are terrible, it's hard to see him in anything other than a situational role if he even makes it. Late 2nd round at best if he comes out.

bajaden · Mar 20, 2011

Arby's Roast Beef said:

I like D.J. Kennedy, but man the offensive passivity can be grating--that's why all the draftniks in the various boards have completely dropped him out of the radar despite the fact that he looks and plays like a NBA talent. Kennedy has combo guard skills packed in a 6'6" body, and that's the main appeal, but as an offensive player the passivity makes him an inefficient, infrequent scorer. He's an average jumpshooter though, and he does attempt to slash and shoot from deep, so the offensive construct might be more beneficial in the NBA for him--that's why I think his offensive upside in the league is actually quite high. But he needs to be able to create shots for himself rather than be the 4th best player on the floor in the NBA. Another thing is that defensively he's quite good--he's above average at making defensive plays and also a good rebounder and overall can be a good to very good defender. The 6'6" PG skills and defense will endear him to teams like the T-Wolves and Lakers who use the Triangle, and he's probably better for a team in the playoff hunt where his versatility can be incredibly useful. Probably won't be much of a scorer, but passing and defense packed with height is useful--a 30s-40s pick.

John Jenkins' main forte will be scoring through and through in the league--he's very efficient as a scorer and is 2nd out of the 102 prospects in what I call offensive growth potential (even better than Fredette)--and that's because he recognizes his niche as a three point shooter and will jack up tons, and he's also a relatively good slasher given how much he shoots from outside. And of course, he's a lights-out shooter in this league. However, he's only average in terms of ballhandling and passing ability, so in this respect he's somewhere between Jimmer Fredette and LaceDarius Dunn here as undersized shooters go. Where Jenkins struggles severely is the defensive end--he lacks athleticism and as a 6'4" SG he will just get mauled here in the NBA--he was in the bottom four players (out of 102) in terms of rebounding and making defensive plays, and needless to say he's an atrocious defender at the next level. While he has a clear offensive identity and a splendid offensive game, the really terrible defense alone might knock him out of first round considerations--and that doesn't include his average passing and lack of height for the position. He's unidimensional and can use another year in college to fine tune maybe the passing ability, because otherwise he's probably somewhere in the mid to latter half of the 2nd round (certified shooters do have use in the league, so you can't discount him).

If William Buford is to make it, he'll have to do it as a 6'5" PG. He does have enough point guard skills to play it for a prolonged amount of time, actually, as he's unselfish and has good ballhandling/court vision. But offensively there's little upside to his game since he's just very passive and his offensive game is incredibly predictable--he only possesses average efficiency, is an average jumpshooter and can't create enough shots for himself or for others. He's not athletic either--he makes very few plays defensively and rebounds at a below average pace, and he might struggle here at the next level. There isn't much to work with for Buford, as he doesn't have a real strength to hang his hat on, and lacks the creating ability that might optimize his passing a bit more. I see him as a Europe player.

David Lighty is a similar player to Buford, but a 5th year version (also Ohio State, incidentally). Lighty like Buford has some real PG skills and at 6'5" that's useful, but he really struggles with his offensive efficiency, even though this part may appear better in the NBA as he does get to the basket and take threes at a reasonable pace. While he's been hitting threes the last several years, his jumper appears to be very poor, and it might not translate that well to the league, and like Buford he can't really create shots excessively so his scoring might end up being miniscule in the league. Lighty comes out of college with a defensive rep, but I'm not sure if he has the athleticism to really hold on--he's relatively poor at making defensive plays and struggles to board, but the hope is that he can be like an Arron Afflalo here and play good contain defense with toughness and movable feet. At the end he might be like Afflalo with a worse shot and better passing ability, but he needs to land in the right situation. Can be a beauty in the eye of the beholder type prospect for teams that appreciate veteran savvy out of rookies, but the lack of athleticism and questionable shooting might turn off purists.

Tyler Honeycutt just looks like a natural on the court--at 6'8" he has combo guard skills/ballhandling and can play PG in pinch situations even. Regarding his own offense he'll probably be relatively average in the league--he's average in efficiency and has just slightly above average offensive upside, as his jumper's pretty poor even though he has an OK offensive construct. Defensively Honeycutt is just excellent--he contests shots well and makes a lot of defensive plays, and he's an excellent rebounder for someone of his position, and he can be a very good defensive player in this league. There has been chatter that Honeycutt is "soft" or that he doesn't maximum effort, but even in his current effort he's impressive--he's just such a natural player, and at 6'8" his passing ability combined with his freakish defensive potential gives him a lot of that "versatile" upside that many GMs crave. The offense might not ever fully develop into star levels, but his all around game can make him a good 3rd option at his peak. Quite a unique player, a longer, skinnier early version of Andre Iguodala can be the upside. Definite lottery pick.

Darius Morris is a real playmaker with unselfishness/ballhandling skills (only behind Brad Wanamaker in that unselfishness quotient I measured) and having pure PG skills at 6'4" is a huge asset for the NBA. Offensively, he won't stand out in the NBA--his efficiency is slightly above average but he's just ok in offensive upside, as his offensive construct is predictable. Moreover, his jumper's below average and it's really hard to see if he'll ever develop three point range for the league in particular. On the other end of the floor Morris is just terrible--he doesn't really contest passing lanes and he's equally a terrible rebounder, and his defense might be very poor in the league because of that. He isn't a freak athlete or a great shooter/defender, so he can use another year to improve his shooting ability to enhance his chances as a prospect. Nonetheless, he might get a few looks at the latter half of the second round this year due to the height in combination with pure PG skills.

Rodney Williams pretty much will be a terrible offensive player in the NBA--really terrible offensive efficiency with poor offensive upside, as his offensive game is predictable and his shooting touch is terrible. He is unselfish by default and seems to be able to play some pinch point guard at times, but he struggles to create at this end overall. His only NBA hope is through his defense--he can make defensive plays at a very good rate in the NBA, and although he's a slightly below average rebounder, he can be an above average defender at the next level. He's incredibly unidimensional (only defense) for the NBA and there's not much hope for his offense overall. His athleticism, defense, and unselfishness might earn him some looks, but given that his rebounding and shooting are terrible, it's hard to see him in anything other than a situational role if he even makes it. Late 2nd round at best if he comes out.

Are we watching the same Buford? He's certainly not a below average athlete. I'd say he's a little above average athlete. He has good end to end speed and good jumping ability. If I have a knock on him, its that he's not aggressive enough in looking for his own shot. But as for efficency, He's shooting 47.4% overall for the year, and 43.8% from beyond the arc. If thats not efficient, then I don't know what is.

D.J. Kennedy has driven me crazy all year. He has all the tools, but just doesn't use them. I put him him in the same basket with Jeffery Taylor. Both guys drive me crazy. I still like both of them, but I wouldn't use a first round pick on either of them.

Prospect watch 2011

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