Prospect watch 2011

[bajaden]

My big thing with Jimmer is that at his absolute best, I think he can be a less crafty version of Curry who also doesnt have as good a handle or playmaking ability.

Now, thats a pretty good player! I'd take him on my team anyday .. I just like other players more. If we trade down or trade for a second pick and drafted him I'd be fine with that, but I just think we can do better with a top five pick. I would absolutely take Irving, Barnes, and Kanter over him .. And while I dont love Williams or Sullinger, I think you have to take those guys over Jimmer. Then there is Perry Jones and all of his potential ... And I personally like Kemba Walker a little bit more.

Thats all my opinion of course.. I like Jimmer, but I think we ( and the media ) may be slightly overrating him.

Well Chad Ford called him a cross between Mark Price and Curry. I do see a lot of Curry in him. And, like Curry, I think he's a better PG than people think. Like Curry, no one thinks he can play defense and I guess we'll see. Since he's not asked to play defense at BYU its hard to say. One scout said that he's a better athlete than he's given credit for. I also think he's a better ballhandler than you do. I've watched him play at least 15 times this year, and every game I watch he's doubled and sometimes tripled as soon as he touches the ball. Ford said that many times the other team will put their best defender on Fredette regardless of position. So sometimes he's being guarded by guys that are 6'6" and 6'7". Yet, he scores. He has such a quick release, he only needs a glimpse of daylight to get off his shot. At worse, he would be a spot up shooter surpreme.

However, I wouldn't take him in the top five. Now down at number 9 or 10, I wouldn't hesitate. Great block by Faried on the last shot of the game. I had Moorehead St. beating Louisville. Against my better judgement I might add. But they pulled it out and saved me. I had Kentucky beating Princeton, but that game really worried me. I saw an upset in the making there. Princeton is a very good team and it wouldn't have surprised me it they would have won. I also had Temple beating Penn St. All three were squeakers, and all three came down to the last shot. Ya gotta love March Maddness!

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I was impressed. He is a worker. You never forget when he's on the court because he is everywhere. He strikes me as an inspirational player too .. he gets the team fired up with his hustle and energy. Literally came up with the game winning block on a Lousville 3 point attempt. Could have been a foul but I thought it was clean. It was a special play though .. not many guys his size can contest like that with their hands straight up and come down with a block. I dont even think he jumped, just held his ground and used his good hands to get the ball.

I don't think he jumped, either. In real time I wasn't sure if there was a foul call (in a sports bar, not the main screen so no volume) and I couldn't tell if it was clean. On replay it not only looked clean, but no jump. Dude held his ground against a three-point shot, stayed completely vertical, and blocked the shot without leaving the ground. Special.

 

[bajaden]

I don't think he jumped, either. In real time I wasn't sure if there was a foul call (in a sports bar, not the main screen so no volume) and I couldn't tell if it was clean. On replay it not only looked clean, but no jump. Dude held his ground against a three-point shot, stayed completely vertical, and blocked the shot without leaving the ground. Special.

This was far from Faried's best game. Probably a combination of altitude and first game jitters. He has little game away from the basket, but I've never seen him miss that may shots at the basket. I'm glad for Faried's sake they made it past the first round. He's a senior and this is his last hurrah. I didn't see them getting past Vanderbilt, but with Richmond beating Vandy, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel for Moorehead St.

So goes Jenkins and Taylor, so goes Vanderbilt. Jenkins showed up, but Taylor had another one of his 1 for 10 games. Its a shame. Taylor is such a good athlete and a great defender. He's just so dammed inconsistent with his shot. At times he reminds me of Doug Christie. Just not often enough.

 

[chief bromden]

Hey Baja, 2 things:

1 - As a lurker in this thread, since I watch a ton of pro but little college (even that is either UCLA or following pro prospects), I love all of the updates and analysis you provide. I fear that sometimes you might worry you are just talking to yourself. Or just Unica and you, but both of you guys and most others in this thread have great insight and perspective that is very much appreciated. I have forwarded your posts on more than one time to friends of mine who are looking to learn more about the draft. So again, thank you and please keep up the great work.

2 - I am not surprised with the Irving quote when taken in context. I have read on other sites as well that Irving could be a great PG, but Rose and Paul are very high company. For a player who has played only 5 games this year and was a consensus superstar coming into college, I'm not surprised the analysts are hesitant to compare him to MVP candidates. Which is funny when you remember Paul wasn't even a top 3 pick.

I also am becoming a big Faried fan. I am curious, how high do you think he can go and either at what pick would you take him for the Kings (if we slip) or what would you give up for him. Seems like he could be a good pairing with cousins. Seems like the kind of annoying player that helps teams get to the next level.

I am in the same boat as this guy. bajaden, I just moved to WV from Sacramento a year ago and have since become very interested in college basketball. I love your write-ups because I am still learning the league and it is always a good read. Thanks for your hard work.

 

[bajaden]

I am in the same boat as this guy. bajaden, I just moved to WV from Sacramento a year ago and have since become very interested in college basketball. I love your write-ups because I am still learning the league and it is always a good read. Thanks for your hard work.

Your quite welcome. I'm not the only person on this fourm that knowledgable though. Read them all so you get different prespectives. We don't all see things through the same eyes. Ahemm! However I do have 20/20 vision....

 

[Spike]

Your quite welcome. I'm not the only person on this fourm that knowledgable though. Read them all so you get different prespectives. We don't all see things through the same eyes. Ahemm! However I do have 20/20 vision....

My hindsight is 20/20.

 

[bajaden]

My hindsight is 20/20.

Welcome to the rear watchers club...

 

[Spike]

Welcome to the rear watchers club...

I have been accused of that several times. Once, by the missus.

 

[bajaden]

Just an average shooting game by Fredette. 32 pts I believe on 10 of 25 shooting. He was fouled a couple of times with no call, but college ref's leave a lot to be desired. He had 7 assists. His shot kept coming up short in the second half. Personally I think he's playing on dead legs. I believe he played the entire 40 minutes tonight, and has done that a lot throughout the year. But BYU pulled out the win. Next up Gonzaga. This could be a tough matchup for BYU. Without Davies on the inside, I think they'll have trouble matching up with Gonzaga.

Not too bad a day for my brackets. I lost Ole Dominion and Vanderbilt. Ole Dominion doesn't surprise me. I knew that was a toss up game, I just though Ole Dom had the edge. Vanderbilt does surprise. Once again though, Jeffery Taylor disappeared offensively and it killed them. Oh well, I can't complain too much. I got lucky with Moorehead St. We'll see how lucky I'am tomorrow.. Just so everyone knows, my final four are Ohio St., Duke, Kansas, and Pitt. I feel fairly confident with Kansas and Ohio St. But Duke and Pitt are the one's that scare me. Duke has the hardest road having to go through probably Tennessee and Texas. If not Texas then Arizona. I think SDSU will make the final 8 and meet Duke. If Pitt makes the final 8 and ends up matched up against Florida, which is what I have in my bracket, thats a scarey game. Florida has been on a roll and their a very good team. I'm still going with Pitt, but it wouldn't surprise me if Florida made the final four.. Great time of the year for a basketball fan..

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Im really getting excited about this Kemba Walker vs. Jimmer Fredette fake rivalry I'm making up in my head.

They are different players who do the same thing .. volume scorers who may or may not be point guards slated to get drafted in the same range. Both came out and did their thing in the first round ... what a great first day overall. I'll be interested to see who gets picked first. My gut says Jimmer will be drafted before Walker, but UCONN has a better chance making it deeper into the tournament which could help his draft spot.

It may seem like I am down on Jimmer with some of my posts .. I really like him though. What he is doing with that BYU team is super impressive. And I saw some playmaking ability today that I didnt see, or maybe didnt look for in other BYU games. And I know this is in large part due to BYU needing him to score all the time, but his shot selection isnt great right now. Same goes for Walker and a lot of other college players, but I just wanted to mention it.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Yeah, I think I said that if he weighed 250 instead of 200, he'd be a top five pick. I really can't comment on Valanciunas since I haven't seen him play. Obviously a lot of scouts are very high on him. I've seen the usual youtube video's etc., but never seen him play in a game. I really like Derrick Williams a lot, and I assume were talking about top 5 picks here. He's just a fundamentally sound player with surprising athleticism. He reminds me a lot athleticly of Griffin, in the sense that he just doesn't show it off all that much. And then all of a sudden he'll explode to the ball for a rebound and you go wow, where did that come from. Griffin was similar at Oklahoma. I had people on this fourm try to tell me he wasn't that athletic. And I can see why, because he just didn't have it on display all the time.

I don't know if you've had a chance to see Kenneth Faried play Vlade, but he plays tomorrow against Louisville and trust me, he's worth watching. He's not a great offensive player, but it doesn't matter. He's a kid that won't just wow you once or twice in a game. He'll wow you every 5 or 6 minutes. He might be the best athlete in the draft, and he plays with an 800 horsepower motor.

I'm also higher on Terrence Jones than most people are. His strange shooting motion aside, he's a very skilled player. He handles the ball extremely well. He's a very good passer. He's a very good rebounder. And he's a very good defender and shotblocker. I've seen him play so many times it almost becomes a big blurr. But I think he's going to be a very good player in the NBA. Not right away, but give him a year or two.

I'm thinking more about players at the top, and I don't know if I'd take T. Jones at the top, I still like him, but not as a top pick, but I can't say I've really paid too much attention to him lately.

I haven't seen Williams play, so I can't really comment on him.

I've seen Valanciunas play a few times, and he's a project, but he's someone I think is one of those projects that don't seem like too much of a gamble. He seems to have a really good attitude and motor. I can see him in a Noah mold, with perhaps a greater offensive upside. He may not have the size to be a center, but the nice thing with this team is that we have a center size big who can play outside a little and give Valanciunas some space inside offensively. He needs to play with a good pick and roll PG though, because that's where his bread and butter is on the offensive end. He moves off the ball well and has very good hands.

 

[bajaden]

Im really getting excited about this Kemba Walker vs. Jimmer Fredette fake rivalry I'm making up in my head.

They are different players who do the same thing .. volume scorers who may or may not be point guards slated to get drafted in the same range. Both came out and did their thing in the first round ... what a great first day overall. I'll be interested to see who gets picked first. My gut says Jimmer will be drafted before Walker, but UCONN has a better chance making it deeper into the tournament which could help his draft spot.

It may seem like I am down on Jimmer with some of my posts .. I really like him though. What he is doing with that BYU team is super impressive. And I saw some playmaking ability today that I didnt see, or maybe didnt look for in other BYU games. And I know this is in large part due to BYU needing him to score all the time, but his shot selection isnt great right now. Same goes for Walker and a lot of other college players, but I just wanted to mention it.

Although I think Fredette is more skilled as a Point guard and offensivels, I don't think he'll be drafted before Walker. I think Walkers athleticism and his ability to play defense will get him picked first. Despite his being undersized. They're both good players and in the right system I think both can be very productive.

 

[bajaden]

I'm thinking more about players at the top, and I don't know if I'd take T. Jones at the top, I still like him, but not as a top pick, but I can't say I've really paid too much attention to him lately.

I haven't seen Williams play, so I can't really comment on him.

I've seen Valanciunas play a few times, and he's a project, but he's someone I think is one of those projects that don't seem like too much of a gamble. He seems to have a really good attitude and motor. I can see him in a Noah mold, with perhaps a greater offensive upside. He may not have the size to be a center, but the nice thing with this team is that we have a center size big who can play outside a little and give Valanciunas some space inside offensively. He needs to play with a good pick and roll PG though, because that's where his bread and butter is on the offensive end. He moves off the ball well and has very good hands.

I'll defer to your knowledge on Valanciunas. As for Williams, I have him as my second choice right behind Irving. He's a very talented kid and in some respects, may be the most NBA ready of any of the prospects.

 

[Glenn]

As for Williams, I have him as my second choice right behind Irving. He's a very talented kid and in some respects, may be the most NBA ready of any of the prospects.

Sounds right to me.

 

[Kingster]

Did anyone hear the comment in the last UConn game that Kemba was given a standing ovation at the end of the Syracuse game - from his teamates? That's a new one for me. I've never heard of a player given a standing ovation in the lockeroom by his own teamates. It says a lot about Kemba, and his teamates. You might make an comparison about Kemba and Iverson when it comes to their size, but definitely not about their leadership ability. Seems to me they are are in separate universe when it comes to that attribute.

 

[bajaden]

Did anyone hear the comment in the last UConn game that Kemba was given a standing ovation at the end of the Syracuse game - from his teamates? That's a new one for me. I've never heard of a player given a standing ovation in the lockeroom by his own teamates. It says a lot about Kemba, and his teamates. You might make an comparison about Kemba and Iverson when it comes to their size, but definitely not about their leadership ability. Seems to me they are are in separate universe when it comes to that attribute.

My comparisons had nothing to do with standing ovations. For all I know Iverson might have been crowned while in college. My comparisons had to do with how Walker plays the game. The fact that like Iverson, he's a volume shooter. There have been many times this year where he took more shots than the rest of the entire starting lineup. Now to be fair to him, his coach asked him to be a lot more aggressive this year in looking for his shot. So all this may be an abberation. I'm also concerned about his height, but not as much as some other people might be. I seriously doubt that Chris Paul is 6' tall. So unless he ends up being 5'9" or something, I'm not that concerned.

There are a lot of things I like about Kemba, but I don't think the Kings need a player thats going to take 25 shots a game to be effective. To be fair, I think is average is 18 shots a game. As I said, I like Kemba, but not as a top 5 pick. Now if we were to aquire another 1st round pick, then I'd have no problem with him. But then it would depend on who we drafted with our first pick. If it happens to be Irving, then I see no need for Kemba.

 

[William Blake]

Henson is having quite a game but I have a hard time picturing him as a legit nba starter.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Although I think Fredette is more skilled as a Point guard and offensivels, I don't think he'll be drafted before Walker. I think Walkers athleticism and his ability to play defense will get him picked first. Despite his being undersized. They're both good players and in the right system I think both can be very productive.

Funny thing is Jimmer is the safer pick. Walker shoudl have a spectacular tourney and will probably be picked higher, but if he can't dominate 1 on 1 in the pros, he could be a bust or a 6th man. Jimmer is a lot like Curry in that he seems like he'll fit in with any very good team. Despite his having to dominate the ball on a otherwise weak BYU team, shooters like him tend to be good off ball players. Curry faced a similar situation at Davidson. Jimmer can shoot, pass and has a high IQ. He may never be a good defender, but as a floor spacer and smart player, he should have a nice career.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Williams was very impressive today. I wish I knew if his 3 point shot was for real. Right now the percentage is crazy, but he doenst take a lot of them .. If he can hit that shot at a good clip I think he can play the 3. He is a huge guy though .. would definetly be a big 3. Got abused a bit on defense which could also mean he would struggle on D against NBA 4's because he'd be undersized, but at the same time could struggle to defend NBA SF's because he is too big.

He's on my radar though for sure. His game reminds me of Carmelo a bit. Huge 3 who can work in the post and just punish smaller players. Thats one potential problem he could have in the NBA aswell .. looked great against smaller guys today because he was just so big ... If he is stuck at the 4 in the NBA then he wont get those easy buckets.

I will defer to people who have watched him play more than me to say if he is a 4 or a 3, but the experts seem to be pretty split on the topic. His next game vs. Texas and Tristan Thompson will be fun fun fun.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

I like Derrick Williams....but I think as of now

Kyrie Irving 1 and Brandon Knight 2.


Brandon Knight is a baller, his shooting % was bad, and that foul on a three point shooter was dumb. but he is a scrapper and has heart. If no Irving is gone I am drafting Knight.

 

[rainmaker]

My problem with Knight is that he doesn't look to set up his teamates enough. He forces a lot of tough shots. He a great scorer, so playing him at the 2 could be an option. But through and through, he looks like a shoot first pg, who lacks the visions and mentality to set up teamates, whereas Fredette scores more out of need, but has more natural playmaking ability. To be honest, I think Knight would replicate what we have in Thornton. Not the same, but similar.

Of course I want Irving #1, but right now I'd prefer Fredette over Knight. Funny thing is Thorpe thinks Knight could go #1 overall.

If we go after a point, we need someone who can create for others, or if we go for a sg, I'd prefer taking Barnes, who I think will end up playing the 2 in the NBA.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

If Irving is gone by the time we pick, I dont think drafting a point guard would be the right move.

In all likelihood we'll be picking in the top 5, and I just dont think I can justify reaching for one of Jimmer, Kemba, or Knight that early... I feel like Williams, Kanter, Barnes, and possibly Sullinger (Although Im not sure how much I love his fit here) are all better picks for us that early.

 

[bajaden]

My problem with Knight is that he doesn't look to set up his teamates enough. He forces a lot of tough shots. He a great scorer, so playing him at the 2 could be an option. But through and through, he looks like a shoot first pg, who lacks the visions and mentality to set up teamates, whereas Fredette scores more out of need, but has more natural playmaking ability. To be honest, I think Knight would replicate what we have in Thornton. Not the same, but similar.

Of course I want Irving #1, but right now I'd prefer Fredette over Knight. Funny thing is Thorpe thinks Knight could go #1 overall.

If we go after a point, we need someone who can create for others, or if we go for a sg, I'd prefer taking Barnes, who I think will end up playing the 2 in the NBA.

I like Knight a little more than you do, and I think on a team with a more disciplined offense he would get more assists. I think he can play the Poiint, but be more of a Mike Bibby type of PG. He'll make the obvious pass. At least for now. I do think he can get better though. Lets remember, were talking about an 18 year old kid. Where Knight does stand out is on defense. He's a very good defender. He has quick feet and very good length for the PG position. Of course his main attribute is on offense where he can score from the outside or by taking it to the basket.

When you compare Knight to, lets say Kemba Walker, he doesn't have the flair that Kemba does, but he considerably taller at 6'3" to Kemba's 5'11". He almost as quick as Kemba. He has a better shooting percentage from the outside than Kemba, and he has almost the same amount of assists a game as Kemba. So I could easily see a team picking him over Kemba. Now you could say that Kemba is a little better here and a little better there. You could say the same things about Fredette. But here's the one thing that has to be part of the equation. Kemba is a junior, and Fredette is a senior. Knight is a freshman.

So ask yourself this. If knight is almost as good as Kemba and Jimmer as a freshman, how much better would he be with two more or three more years of college experience? Of the three, which one has the biggest upside? You all know that I love Jimmer, but I have to give Knight the edge on this one.

 

[bajaden]

Speaking of Knight! I just finished watching the Kentucky/West Virginia game. Close game all the way with Kentucky pulling out to a 3 posession lead with about 3 minutes to play. At the two minute mark it became a game of West Virginia putting someone on the line. And that someone for the most part was Brandon Knight, who went 9 for 10 from the line and sealed the deal for Kentucky. Knight ended up with 30 pt's on 9 of 20 shooting overall and went 3 for 8 from beyond the arc. Knight also had 4 assists. All in all, a very good game from Knight who once again played good defense throughout the game.

Terrence Jones also had a nice game. He didn't light up the stat sheet, but he made his presence felt by playing defense and rebounding. Jones brings a lot of intangables to the game that don't show up on the stat sheet. He ended up with 12 points on 3 of 5 shooting overall, and missed the only 3 pt shot he took. He had 10 boards and 2 blocked shots. He picked up his 3 foul a few minutes into the second half, and that limited his minutes somewhat in the second half.

I want to give some props to Josh Harrellson. The 6'10", 270 pound center for Kentucky. I doubt he'll ever set foot in the NBA, although I think he could sit at the end of the bench for some team. He's not very athletic and can't jump very high. But he never stops battling, and he's very fundamentally sound. He knows how and when to rotate. He knows how to block out under the basket. And he sets great picks. For a guy with limited athletic ability, he's extremely effecient and productive. He ended up with 15 points on 7 of 10 shooting. He had 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 blocked shot.

 

[bajaden]

With two days in the bag, and more games going on as I write (thank god for DVR) I thought I'd mention some players that I watched over the last two days. JaJuan Johnson of Purdue was just OK offensively. He went 6 for 16 from the floor for 16 pts. However he did contribute 16 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. I've watched Johnson play quite a bit this year, and last year. I definitely think he can play in the NBA, but he seriously needs to get stronger. At 6'10", and 220 pounds, he's definitely on the lean side. He gets pushed around under the basket at times by guys much shorter than him, but stronger. He has a decent post game, but tends to shy away from contact a little too much for my needs.

I watched the Ohio St. game. Sullinger played well, but didn't blow anyone's socks off. If there's a time of the year to stand up and be counted, its right now. He only took 7 shots in the game and he made 5 of them for 11 pts. He also added 9 boards. What I'm looking for from him is a real breakout game like he was having at the beginning of the year. I'm just not going to get real excited about 11 pts and 9 boards from a 6'9", 270 pound player, when I can get 19 pts and 10 boards from a 6'7", 210 pound player named Jordan Hamilton from Texas. What I'm saying, is that Hamilton brought his A game, and thats what Sullinger needs to do. Unless that was his A game..

North Carolina took care of LIU and Harrison Barnes continues his march back to credibility. Execept for not being able to hit the ocean from beyond the arc, he had a very good game. And had he been more accurate from out there, it might have been his best all around game of the year. He ended up with 24 points on 9 of 19 shooting. Not a bad shooting percentage when you consider that he went 2 for 10 from beyond the arc. he also pulled down 16 boards and had 2 steals. All in all, a very good game for Barnes. He's putting it all together at the right time.

 

[bajaden]

Oakland gave Texas a much bigger battle than I expected. Don't know if it was first game jitters from Texas, or Oakland playing over their head. I've seen both these teams play before, especially Texas who I've seen at least 20 times this year. This game shouldn't have been this close. But all's well that ends well. At least for Texas.

Keith Benson, the 6'11" senior center, and shotblocking specialist from Oakland had a fairly nice game. He ended up with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocked shots. Not bad since he was matched up against Tristan Thompson a 6'9", 240 pound freshman with extremely long arms from Texas. Thompson had 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 blocked shots. He did make Benson's life miserable at times. As I mentioned earlier, Jordan Hamilton had 19 points and 10 boards. J'Covan Brown had 21 points for Texas.

Georgia got a couple of good games from Trey Thompkins and Travis leslie. It turned out to be not quite enough as Washington won the game and protected my bracket. Thompkins a 6'10" C/PF, had 26 points on 11 of 14 shooting and was 2 for 2 from beyond the arc. He also threw in 11 boards. Leslie, who I think has been somewhat of an undercheiver in his career at Georgia had 12 points, 5 assists, and 1 steal. At 6'4", a lot more was expected out of Leslie when he signed up for Georgia. He is a very good defender. He's just never brought the offense that was expected.. Still, he's a very talented player.

 

[Glenn]

Didn't he have 2 points the game before? Knight, I mean.

 

[est.1999]

Yeah. And wasn't he the one who won the game??

 

[bajaden]

Yeah. And wasn't he the one who won the game??

Yep! He had a horrible shooting night, but made the shot that counted.. Anyone thats watched him play this year knows that the last thing you need to worry about with Knight is his offense..

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Yep! He had a horrible shooting night, but made the shot that counted.. Anyone thats watched him play this year knows that the last thing you need to worry about with Knight is his offense..

Still disconcerting to see someone get shut down like that when you are talking about them as a top 5 pick. Anyone can have an off game though, so it was good to see him bounce back today.

I didn't get to see his two point game, so my bigger question for anyone who watched it is did Knight get shut down or was his shot just off? Raises red flags for me if a Knight finally came up against a player with NBA athleticism and he caused Knight to have a bad game. However, if Knight was getting to all the spots he wanted at will and just had a day where the shots weren't falling, that's a different story.