Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker

[captain bill]

Worth noting that the article pegging Domas's extension at 4 years $120m also predicted Kuzma signs here. And notes that this FO almost got Kuz in a Buddy trade before Lakers backed out and went for Russ. DDV is pretty clear evidence that the FO will keep after acquiring guys they like.

Also on most recent Hoops Collective pod they discussed a wide number of openings and FA options, which Windhorst was speculating about freely. When Kuz to Kings was mentioned he just said "wait and see" and refused to elaborate. Which gave a strong impression the deal is all but done

 

[SacTownKid]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1673652523687632897

Didn’t watch much hawks games but aren’t Hunter and Bey 3D guys who help also don’t get in the way offensively. I refuse to pick up anyone that would move Keegan from the 3rd scorer I think we should aim him to be which is why I want no part of Kuzma and grant

Well, Grant can go either way in terms of fitting, he's had impactful years of a usage not too far off of Barnes the last few years. Kuz? Nope. He's never had a season under 20, and last year was right up around Fox. If they get Kuz my money is on Murray kind of doing what he did last season. Maybe he gets more minutes, maybe not if Sasha is on board and Lyles comes back, but if Kuz is here, he's going to be shooting the rock and handling the ball as a playmaker so Murray gets what's served up to him again most likely. You never know what can happen though, Monk was really good under Brown as a playmaker. My question is what happens the nights where Monk and Kuz kind of jackhammer your offense? That could be a heck of an explosive duo for sure. Both positively and negatively.

 

[SacTownKid]

Worth noting that the article pegging Domas's extension at 4 years $120m also predicted Kuzma signs here. And notes that this FO almost got Kuz in a Buddy trade before Lakers backed out and went for Russ. DDV is pretty clear evidence that the FO will keep after acquiring guys they like.

Also on most recent Hoops Collective pod they discussed a wide number of openings and FA options, which Windhorst was speculating about freely. When Kuz to Kings was mentioned he just said "wait and see" and refused to elaborate. Which gave a strong impression the deal is all but done

If the Domas extension and raise does happen and the cap figure shoots down to 20 and the Kings can sign Kuz for that? Honestly, that's not a bad deal overall. 25-30 is scary when his showcase year was somewhat average and inefficient.

 

[Hoovtrain]

Is it completely unrealistic for the Kings to throw their hat into the Lilliard ring?

 

[miltonap]

Give Josh Hart an offer he can't refuse and a starting role.

If we get Josh Hart we're a finals team.

I'd rather do that than spend on Grant or Kuzma tbh.

 

[BigVirg]

See, to me, this is the wrong read on Kuzma. If we're signing him, we want him to be a 2nd/3rd scoring option type that's capable of creating his own offense and playmaking for others. And just by virtue of playing in the Kings system, his efficiency and shot quality would hopefully skyrocket. The Kings had one of the best regular season offenses of all time, but their system crumbled in the playoffs; there's a variety of reasons for that, but when the cards fell, only Fox and Monk were able to create something out of nothing. The hope is Kuzma doesn't fade in that situation.

He's just a confusing player. Surface stats say he's bad, but impact stats/very smart people think he's near elite. I'd be okay with like $20mil/season. Anything higher than that gets real iffy.

That's fair but the assumption is that Keegan ascends and becomes the 3rd option and Sabonis figures out his midrange game. Albeit thats not a guarantee, it's essential if the kings are going to be Contenders. If kyle can play Barnes' roll on offense and bring 8 rebounds a night plus better defense and he's worth 20 mill. Also, I've seen Kyle take and make big shots so I don't think he shrinks in the playoffs. If nothing else I believe he will be a more consistent scorer than barnes. Your mention of his advanced stats made me look into his defense and its interesting. I found this quick video.

 

[BigVirg]

Agreed, we'd want him to be a consistent offensive threat, but I'd also be curious to see what a coach like Mike Brown could do for his defense. Kuzma has always been an inconsistent defensive player. He played no defense when he came into the league. Then when the Lakers brought in Lebron and Frank Vogel his role shifted into more of a 3 and D player and his defense was actually really solid. Then when he went to Washington his defense reverted back to slightly below average. The sample size isn't big, but when pushed to defend at a high level Kuzma has shown the ability to do that well. The thought of getting Washington scoring Kuzma with Frank Vogel Lakers defensive Kuzma makes me buy into his contract a lot easier but who knows if that's what we would get. If any coach has a chance to get that out of him it's Mike Brown.

I didn't read this until after i responded to @The_Jamal but I agree with your post 100%.

 

[The_Jamal]

That's fair but the assumption is that Keegan ascends and becomes the 3rd option and Sabonis figures out his midrange game. Albeit thats not a guarantee, it's essential if the kings are going to be Contenders. If kyle can play Barnes' roll on offense and bring 8 rebounds a night plus better defense and he's worth 20 mill. Also, I've seen Kyle take and make big shots so I don't think he shrinks in the playoffs. If nothing else I believe he will be a more consistent scorer than barnes. Your mention of his advanced stats made me look into his defense and its interesting. I found this quick video.

I mean, yeah he really was a high level role player on that Lakers team. And he's developed his game further with WAS, but was basically forced into being a lead option when he obviously isn't one. But those skills can still be valuable.

In a lot of ways, it's pretty similar to when we first went and got HB from Dallas. Was a super role player in GS, went to DAL as a 2nd options, failed and then found a groove with us as a 3rd/4th option and mostly C&S spacer. Similar age of them joining us too. I think with Kuz's development as a passer, history as a defender and a better rebounder gives him a real shot to outplay the HB contract that just played out the last 4 years.

The skills you want from a wing are all there with Kuzma. It's just a matter of us trusting Brown, trusting Domas/Fox to reign him in properly and knowing the right opportunities to go take over a game. I think what HB exposed in the playoffs was that with Fox/Domas banged up, our DHO system getting blown up, that he (along with Huerter) weren't able to step outside our offensive system and give the offensive boost we sorely needed. We just needed ONE of those guys to have a big game and outside Huerter hitting 2 threes in game 6 in the 4th... they were just flat unplayable. And if Huerter's contract were up, we'd probably be having similar conversations about him that we currently are about HB.

Moral of the story, I'm talking myself into Kuz. I don't want to see 4/100 or anything like that, but $20mil or less? That's a gamble worth taking on a wing with an actual upside case to his game and someone I think we can integrate into our system/chemistry/core.

 

[SacTownKid]

That's fair but the assumption is that Keegan ascends and becomes the 3rd option and Sabonis figures out his midrange game. Albeit thats not a guarantee, it's essential if the kings are going to be Contenders. If kyle can play Barnes' roll on offense and bring 8 rebounds a night plus better defense and he's worth 20 mill. Also, I've seen Kyle take and make big shots so I don't think he shrinks in the playoffs. If nothing else I believe he will be a more consistent scorer than barnes. Your mention of his advanced stats made me look into his defense and its interesting. I found this quick video.

You have to be careful looking at highlights but he's got athletic ability for sure and thus potential. In that bubble year though in the playoffs Kyle's defensive win share numbers were right behind Rondo, so.... And his offensive win shares were like 8th on the team. Kuz was essentially their 7th man. He averaged 23 mpg in the playoffs. You don't pay Kuz for defense although historically he's not bad. I saw that article bring up his defensive rating but that stat is garbage since you can see such a huge variance from one year to another from almost every player. According to those numbers Kuz has had years of just atrocious like 200th+ in the league stuff which isn't true either. If the Kings want defense you can see a player like Grant Williams do that every night. That year Kuz was also one of only 3 players on that Lakers team with a negative VORP. Right behind Waiters and in front of JR Smith. The next year Kuz had the lowest offensive win shares on the Lakers during the playoffs at a -0.4 and the lowest WS total on the entire team.

That said you have to be careful when weighing advanced stats too heavily as well hahaha. The stats that don't lie are the meat and potato offensive ones and Kuz has always been a little bit on the underside of true star offensively. He's got the right mentality though and the Kings need someone, anyone that just won't stop even shooting like Barnes tends to.

 

[SacTownKid]

I mean, yeah he really was a high level role player on that Lakers team. And he's developed his game further with WAS, but was basically forced into being a lead option when he obviously isn't one. But those skills can still be valuable.

In a lot of ways, it's pretty similar to when we first went and got HB from Dallas. Was a super role player in GS, went to DAL as a 2nd options, failed and then found a groove with us as a 3rd/4th option and mostly C&S spacer. Similar age of them joining us too. I think with Kuz's development as a passer, history as a defender and a better rebounder gives him a real shot to outplay the HB contract that just played out the last 4 years.

The skills you want from a wing are all there with Kuzma. It's just a matter of us trusting Brown, trusting Domas/Fox to reign him in properly and knowing the right opportunities to go take over a game. I think what HB exposed in the playoffs was that with Fox/Domas banged up, our DHO system getting blown up, that he (along with Huerter) weren't able to step outside our offensive system and give the offensive boost we sorely needed. We just needed ONE of those guys to have a big game and outside Huerter hitting 2 threes in game 6 in the 4th... they were just flat unplayable. And if Huerter's contract were up, we'd probably be having similar conversations about him that we currently are about HB.

Moral of the story, I'm talking myself into Kuz. I don't want to see 4/100 or anything like that, but $20mil or less? That's a gamble worth taking on a wing with an actual upside case to his game and someone I think we can integrate into our system/chemistry/core.

Yeah at 20 that would be pretty sweet. No matter the cost, I do think that Grant would make this a better team for sure. OG as well. Their win share per minute numbers are almost double that of Kuz. There's no guarantee that any of these 3 take the team over the top and in case Monte has to wheel and deal at some point, 20 per year for Kuz is probably movable.

 

[206Fan]

Is it completely unrealistic for the Kings to throw their hat into the Lilliard ring?

I also pondered this idea. I don’t think Portland does it unless they get Fox in the deal. Our best offer to them without Fox is probably Keegan, Davion, and 5 1st round picks.

Assuming we’d only lose Keegan and Davion, I think we’d be contenders with Lillard on this team even with the awkward fit. Like I said, I don’t think Portland moves him for anything other than Fox from our team.

 

[captain bill]

I mean, yeah he really was a high level role player on that Lakers team. And he's developed his game further with WAS, but was basically forced into being a lead option when he obviously isn't one. But those skills can still be valuable.

In a lot of ways, it's pretty similar to when we first went and got HB from Dallas. Was a super role player in GS, went to DAL as a 2nd options, failed and then found a groove with us as a 3rd/4th option and mostly C&S spacer. Similar age of them joining us too. I think with Kuz's development as a passer, history as a defender and a better rebounder gives him a real shot to outplay the HB contract that just played out the last 4 years.

Having a third option to run and initiate the offense is a pretty huge glaring need. Only Fox and Monk were able to do that against Golden State. The offense stalled out without them driving it.

Kuzma being able to initiate the offense also opens up a lot more opportunities for Davion. If coach wants to run out a defense-first lineup for a few minutes, that become a lot easier when you have Kuzma to initiate things instead of putting that load on Mitchell.

 

[SacTownKid]

Having a third option to run and initiate the offense is a pretty huge glaring need. Only Fox and Monk were able to do that against Golden State. The offense stalled out without them driving it.

Kuzma being able to initiate the offense also opens up a lot more opportunities for Davion. If coach wants to run out a defense-first lineup for a few minutes, that become a lot easier when you have Kuzma to initiate things instead of putting that load on Mitchell.

Oof, I just took a look at Kuz' pick and roll stats as an initiator last season. Not good, lol. His PPP is at a .83. Totals put him in the 39.7th percentile. Better than Davion, but Davion was horrendous for some reason in pnr last season. The more numbers I see, the more I'm like, it absolutely can't be the advanced stats that Monte is looking at unless it's that really obscure situational defensive stuff that doesn't necessarily equate to actual wins apparently. He must see something that isn't showing up there. Barnes as a pick and roll ball handler however? Just like his iso stats, ELITE. But just like his iso stats, that frequency is too low at 13 percent lower than Kuz.

 

[LPKingsFan]

https://twitter.com/statuses/1673873959434190848

https://twitter.com/statuses/1673877177337778176

My read? Got ahead of themselves on the Kuzma story and they think it’s actually going to be Barnes returning instead.

 

[OPrime]

Grant Williams is the best fit to me and the Celtics won’t be able to match an offer of around 4/70.

 

[hrdboild]

I hope I'm pleasantly surprised but if Kuzma is the guy, I see us taking a step back next season. Harrison Barnes just averaged 15 ppg on 9.6 shots with a .632 TS%. Kyle Kuzma just averaged 21.2ppg on 17.8 shots with a .544 TS%. Harrison Barnes is a 37.8% career 3pt shooter. Kyle Kuzma is a 33.8% career 3pt shooter. Certainly he's not afraid to shoot like Barnes often appears to be but when he's only making 33% of them I don't see that as a good thing. Maybe he has some playmaking skills to compliment his mediocre shooting but he offset his 3.7 APG with 3 TOs. Almost all of his rebounds are on the defensive end where Sabonis is already one of the best in the league. When Kuz was playing with Anthony Davis he was rebounding the ball at around the same rate as Harrison Barnes -- which is poor for a PF. There's no upside with Kuzma -- he's an albatross contract waiting to happen.

 

[SacTownKid]

Grant Williams is the best fit to me and the Celtics won’t be able to match an offer of around 4/70.

I like Williams but if a player like Kuz can be had for like 4/80 as has been talked about in connection to the Domas raise, Lyles re-signing, and the cap space remaining to get a deal done as much as every stat I'm looking at is big time turning me off, I think you still go Kuz. If he finds his way the upside is there. Now, if it's more like 4/100 for Kuz, Williams all day.

 

[SacTownKid]

I hope I'm pleasantly surprised but if Kuzma is the guy, I see us taking a step back next season. Harrison Barnes just averaged 15 ppg on 9.6 shots with a .632 TS%. Kyle Kuzma just averaged 21.2ppg on 17.8 shots with a .544 TS%. Harrison Barnes is a 37.8% career 3pt shooter. Kyle Kuzma is a 33.8% career 3pt shooter. Certainly he's not afraid to shoot like Barnes often appears to be but when he's only making 33% of them I don't see that as a good thing. Maybe he has some playmaking skills to compliment his mediocre shooting but he offset his 3.7 APG with 3 TOs. Almost all of his rebounds are on the defensive end where Sabonis is already one of the best in the league. When Kuz was playing with Anthony Davis he was rebounding the ball at around the same rate as Harrison Barnes -- which is poor for a PF. There's no upside with Kuzma -- he's an albatross contract waiting to happen.

Yeah, almost every stat isn't showing anything about Kuz being the piece for sure, but at 20 a year the upside strike could be worth it.

 

[SacTownKid]

Just spitballing, but what if the Kings put it out there and went for it.

Trade Huerter/Murray/1st for OG and Koloko in a major overpay. The upside is the Kings actually gain around 4 million more in space with this deal.

Sign Kuz for 20 a year. Leaves the Kings with roughly 15-19 left.

Sign Josh Hart with the remaining space.

Fox/Davion
Hart/Jones
OG/???
Kuz/Sasha/Slawson
Domas/???

 

[Makaveli]

Per 36
Kuzma 21.8pts 7.4reb 3.8ast 0.5blk 0.6stl 44 fg% 33 3pt%

Christian wood. 23.1pts 10.2reb 2.5ast 1.5blk 0.6stl 51 fg% 37 3pt%
Food for thought

 

[Makaveli]

Just spitballing, but what if the Kings put it out there and went for it.

Trade Huerter/Murray/1st for OG and Koloko in a major overpay. The upside is the Kings actually gain around 4 million more in space with this deal.

Sign Kuz for 20 a year. Leaves the Kings with roughly 15-19 left.

Sign Josh Hart with the remaining space.

Fox/Davion
Hart/Jones
OG/???
Kuz/Sasha/Slawson
Domas/???

I’d go Wood and Hart saves money and gives you a 4/5 have lyles in the rotation as well

 

[hrdboild]

Yeah, almost every stat isn't showing anything about Kuz being the piece for sure, but at 20 a year the upside strike could be worth it.

I just don't see how there could be any upside here. He's 27 years old with 6 years in the NBA on his resume. The only improvement he's shown since his rookie season is a marginal bump in assist rate. He's essentially been a replacement level player since he came into the league. What does he have left in the tank that could possibly be worth $20 million a year? We'd be better of giving those minutes to Queta. At least Nemi would help us in the areas where we need to improve and he's not going to cost us anywhere close to $20 million a year.

If we can't get a proven defender to compliment the starters with our cap space this year I think our best option is to find a vet who will take a 1 year deal and save that cap space for next summer when there will be much better options available in free agency. Getting Keegan more shots should be our priority for next season and bringing Vezenkov over might offset the loss of Barnes anyway.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Yeah, almost every stat isn't showing anything about Kuz being the piece for sure, but at 20 a year the upside strike could be worth it.

But "almost every stat isn't showing anything" really translates to "almost every stat suggests he's worse than a league-average player" and "at 20 a year" really translates to "at a salary almost double the league-average salary".

I mean, I'm willing to be wrong on this one, but if we want to pay Kuzma that kind of money to come in and be possibly our 7th option (behind Fox, Domas, Keegan, Huerter, Monk, and if he comes Vezenkov), there better be some super-duper secret sauce inscribed-on-stone-tablets-by-the-finger-of-God statistical assurance in Monte's hands that he's just what this team needs.

 

[ParniValjak]

I just don't see how there could be any upside here. He's 27 years old with 6 years in the NBA on his resume. The only improvement he's shown since his rookie season is a marginal bump in assist rate. He's essentially been a replacement level player since he came into the league. What does he have left in the tank that could possibly be worth $20 million a year? We'd be better of giving those minutes to Queta. At least Nemi would help us in the areas where we need to improve and he's not going to cost us anywhere close to $20 million a year.

If we can't get a proven defender to compliment the starters with our cap space this year I think our best option is to find a vet who will take a 1 year deal and save that cap space for next summer when there will be much better options available in free agency. Getting Keegan more shots should be our priority for next season and bringing Vezenkov over might offset the loss of Barnes anyway.

Except that cap space disappears pretty quickly next year when Sabonis gets a bigger yearly salary, when you need to re-up Monk etc.

Rolling the cap space into next year is fine if you are Houston or OKC but not if you already have a reasonable payroll of veterans some of who are going to be getting more cash than they are on now and by a significant margin.

You either use the cap space or you lose it. There is no rolling over for this team. The move needs to be made now and its irrelevant whether its via trade or free agency but the cap space needs to be used up this off-season.

 

[ParniValjak]

But "almost every stat isn't showing anything" really translates to "almost every stat suggests he's worse than a league-average player" and "at 20 a year" really translates to "at a salary almost double the league-average salary".

I mean, I'm willing to be wrong on this one, but if we want to pay Kuzma that kind of money to come in and be possibly our 7th option (behind Fox, Domas, Keegan, Huerter, Monk, and if he comes Vezenkov), there better be some super-duper secret sauce inscribed-on-stone-tablets-by-the-finger-of-God statistical assurance in Monte's hands that he's just what this team needs.

Vezenkov? Really!

How many people have seen Vezenkov play here? He cannot create his own shot. He barely takes more than 2 dribbles. He is excellent shooter coming off the screens or spotting up but he is not someone who is more than that. He was the MVP of the Euroleague season because Olympiacos set up their whole offensive system to run him off screens and get him putting up shots. He is an excellent shooter but other than that, offensively there is not that much to get excited about.

I think people look at the numbers and they get excited without seeing him play. He is not a 3 in the NBA. A classic spot up shooter stretch 4. Think Bjelica with no where near the play making or passing ability.

He is going to be good role player in the NBA but lets be real, he is not going to be a scoring option over someone like Kuzma, HB, Grant or anyone else who can do a bit more than just spot up and shoot really well.

 

[SacTownKid]

But "almost every stat isn't showing anything" really translates to "almost every stat suggests he's worse than a league-average player" and "at 20 a year" really translates to "at a salary almost double the league-average salary".

I mean, I'm willing to be wrong on this one, but if we want to pay Kuzma that kind of money to come in and be possibly our 7th option (behind Fox, Domas, Keegan, Huerter, Monk, and if he comes Vezenkov), there better be some super-duper secret sauce inscribed-on-stone-tablets-by-the-finger-of-God statistical assurance in Monte's hands that he's just what this team needs.

You could look at it that way, hahaha. Howver, the MLE might not be far under that in a bit depending on what the new TV ends up being, lol. Kuz is not efficient but he is productive so there's that. Yeah, if he's coming in as Monte's guy and there isn't some Monte mind tricks about Kuz being something untapped then this makes no sense the more you dig into him. If he's Monte's guy, Monte is either just seeing a super simplistic 21 ppg and 8 rpg along with 3.4 apg, and nothing else, or he sees a far more effective 21 ppg or more on this team.

 

[The_Jamal]

But "almost every stat isn't showing anything" really translates to "almost every stat suggests he's worse than a league-average player" and "at 20 a year" really translates to "at a salary almost double the league-average salary".

I mean, I'm willing to be wrong on this one, but if we want to pay Kuzma that kind of money to come in and be possibly our 7th option (behind Fox, Domas, Keegan, Huerter, Monk, and if he comes Vezenkov), there better be some super-duper secret sauce inscribed-on-stone-tablets-by-the-finger-of-God statistical assurance in Monte's hands that he's just what this team needs.

I swear I'm not hallucinating, but I'm pretty sure there is with Kuzma. Or at least there was at some point in the last few years. IIRC I was equally "bleh" about us trading for Kuzma two years ago but there was some impact stuff floating around out there that Kuz was actually good and don't look at the surface noise. Is that still true? Who knows.

Kuz would still be super underwhelming. He's basically only ahead of Jerami Grant on my "what to do with cap space" list this summer. Just so many other routes we can and hopefully should go.

 

[SacTownKid]

Per 36
Kuzma 21.8pts 7.4reb 3.8ast 0.5blk 0.6stl 44 fg% 33 3pt%

Christian wood. 23.1pts 10.2reb 2.5ast 1.5blk 0.6stl 51 fg% 37 3pt%
Food for thought

And Wood has legit efficient stats compared to Kuz. Problem is most of his best years he played C. Woods win shares are actually really good his whole career. Wood has a positive box plusminus too whereas Kuz is at a negative total in his career. In fact all of Kuz' box plus minus scores average out to the negative. What the heck is Monte looking at here?

 

[SacTownKid]

Except that cap space disappears pretty quickly next year when Sabonis gets a bigger yearly salary, when you need to re-up Monk etc.

Rolling the cap space into next year is fine if you are Houston or OKC but not if you already have a reasonable payroll of veterans some of who are going to be getting more cash than they are on now and by a significant margin.

You either use the cap space or you lose it. There is no rolling over for this team. The move needs to be made now and its irrelevant whether its via trade or free agency but the cap space needs to be used up this off-season.

Exactly, and the reality is after the Holmes trade Monte didn't just stumble his way into the options of space this summer. He's been planning on it.

 

[The_Jamal]

And Wood has legit efficient stats compared to Kuz. Problem is most of his best years he played C. Woods win shares are actually really good his whole career. Wood has a positive box plusminus too whereas Kuz is at a negative total in his career. In fact all of Kuz' box plus minus scores average out to the negative. What the heck is Monte looking at here?

And yet, when you turn the tape on for Wood, it gets ugly. Can't defend a lick. And somehow can't hold off old man Javale and old man Powell for a starting gig? With Luka playmaking for you? Dallas wasted absolutely no time thinking about resigning him with the Lively lotto pick, trading for Holmes to be a stop-gap and O-Max as your utility 4 guy.

He's Marvin Bagley if Bagley were actually a productive offensive player.