Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

[beb0p]

D'Angelo Russell says "Hi!". Somehow, he's still considered a top3 pick.
Everyone pads their stats on weak part of schedule.

Yes, I'm well aware that Russell did the same.

But there is a difference between having monster games and then sucking against good teams; vs someone who plays well against both good and subpar competition.

For that matter, Jason Thompson and Jeremy Lin both had some of their best games against very good teams in college. Which put them on the radar. So maybe in the end, bringing the A game against A teams don't really mean much.
.

 

[Gilles]

Oh, Russell sucked all right against very good teams:

Competition---------Record-Mins/g-Points/g-2PT%-3PT%-Assists/g-TO/g
Top 100 defenses-----8-9-----35.6-----17.7-----40.4---34.8-----4.4------3.0
Outside of top 100---16-2----32.4-----20.8-----56.4---47.4-----5.6------2.8

 

[funkykingston]

So it's Winslow or WCS and Winslow isn't a SG he's a SF/SG. His work ethic will be huge if he can get his shot to resemble what kawi Leonard is today watch out.

And that's the hard part with Winslow and trying to picture how he could become a star. Kawhi is impossibly long but other than that he and Iguodala are the best role models I can think of for Winslow. He's not going to lead the league in scoring or be a lights out shooter. He's (ideally) going to be a very good defender, a guy who can swing between SG & SF and who does a lot of things well but nothing amazing. Like WCS I think you draft him knowing that it's extremely unlikely that he evolves into a franchise changing star but with good confidence that he's a solid role player.

I like Porzingis also and he's a great fit. I'd hate it if we don't take him cause of some he's not ready nonsense. You don't know that he can come in and suprise everyone. Nik really had a great year for someone who was thought of as a nba ready player

I do agree that the Kings need to make steps to keep Cousins happy and in Sacramento (a bird in the hand and all that) but my main argument against Porzingis isn't that he's a couple years away, it's that I just don't think he's ever going to be any good.

I've seen people say his upside is "Dirk with defense" and some on here claim he's "Anthony Davis -like" but Dirk (who came over at about the same age) was a MUCH better shooter than Porzingis at the same stage and while Porzingis does block a shot a game or so due to his nice length and timing, he's NOT a good defender right now.

As I've said before, what exactly makes Kristaps Porzingis a better prospect than Andrea Bargnani was?

 

[206Fan]

Everyone, who is smart enough does that. I present you with another guy, who apparently takes only open shots as well: http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201935/tracking/shots/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular Season

4.4 out of 6.8 outside shots were open


D'Angelo Russell says "Hi!". Somehow, he's still considered a top3 pick.
Everyone pads their stats on weak part of schedule.

...my original point was that Collison struggled as a 3pt shooter. I said that the only shots he takes are open. (Most of them are). This is in fact true. I used my eye test on his release and hesitations. His slow release is well documented.

 

[LPKingsFan]

And that's the hard part with Winslow and trying to picture how he could become a star. Kawhi is impossibly long but other than that he and Iguodala are the best role models I can think of for Winslow. He's not going to lead the league in scoring or be a lights out shooter. He's (ideally) going to be a very good defender, a guy who can swing between SG & SF and who does a lot of things well but nothing amazing. Like WCS I think you draft him knowing that it's extremely unlikely that he evolves into a franchise changing star but with good confidence that he's a solid role player.

What about Jimmy Butler (who Winslow compared himself to, at least). Putting the last two drafts aside (as one must, I believe), couldn't this team use a Jimmy Butler?

 

[206Fan]

Oh, Russell sucked all right against very good teams:

Competition---------Record-Mins/g-Points/g-2PT%-3PT%-Assists/g-TO/g
Top 100 defenses-----8-9-----35.6-----17.7-----40.4---34.8-----4.4------3.0
Outside of top 100---16-2----32.4-----20.8-----56.4---47.4-----5.6------2.8

He struggled a lot vs. good teams and Ohio St's WL record really reflect that. I think all players struggle against heavy competition, but that was a huge thing I noted of him and Johnson.

 

[206Fan]

What about Jimmy Butler (who Winslow compared himself to, at least). Putting the last two drafts aside (as one must, I believe), couldn't this team use a Jimmy Butler?

Jimmy Butler took 3 seasons to develop though. Even in Butler's 3rd year, he struggled shooting and scoring the ball.


Realistically, I think MKG should be the comparison we're looking for. At the very minimum, Winslow will be able to make an impact on defense.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Jimmy Butler took 3 seasons to develop though. Even in Butler's 3rd year, he struggled shooting and scoring the ball.

Is there a reason that similar games/styles require similar learning curves, though?

 

[206Fan]

Is there a reason that similar games/styles require similar learning curves, though?

I think Butler is the player he is today because of his slow brought in development. I don't know if Winslow will be a quicker learner and have faster development, but maybe so. Who do you like in this draft? I honestly can't understand the Winslow-Harden comps though..

 

[LPKingsFan]

I think Butler is the player he is today because of his slow brought in development. I don't know if Winslow will be a quicker learner and have faster development, but maybe so. Who do you like in this draft? I honestly can't understand the Winslow-Harden comps though..

Oh, I agree, nothing like Harden. And I'm unabashedly in the WCS camp. I'm just preparing myself for the possibility that he's gone at 6. I may be overly influenced by Dean on Draft's gushing takes on Winslow (link here), but while I'd be disappointed if WCS is off the board and we take Winslow, I think that's a superior outcome then doing something rash and trading down just to get rid Landry's contract.

I must confess, I know very little of the guys who played internationally.

 

[Gilles]

...my original point was that Collison struggled as a 3pt shooter. I said that the only shots he takes are open. (Most of them are). This is in fact true. I used my eye test on his release and hesitations. His slow release is well documented.

Darren shoots off the dribble and C&S in different ways: C&S shots are done in one smooth motion, while pull ups indeed have some hesitation most of the time. When he doesn't have time to think, he releases quickly - that's why he has his share of buzzer beaters.

Butler always had a knack for drawing fouls and hasn't shot worse than .768 from FT% line in college or pros. He just knows, where to go on offense. Winslow is very active as well, but not nearly as poised.

 

[kingsfan1984]

[

I like Porzingis also and he's a great fit. I'd hate it if we don't take him cause of some he's not ready nonsense. You don't know that he can come in and suprise everyone. Nik really had a great year for someone who was thought of as a nba ready player[/quote]

Rudy give the kings good flexibility. He is big enough and strong enough to do an admirable job in post defense. Look at some of the Memphiss games against Z Bo. This gives the kings to be able to have a choice between a PF or a SF or in the case of Porz a weak stretch PF and they will fit well with the pieces we have. Draft Exrpess breaks down the game of Porz against Barcelona and give you a good look at what Porz does well now and where he struggles. He isn't just knocking down wide open jumper catch and shoot style. He does take advantage of his size on some plays but thats no difference than in college. What we see though is he is very comfortable catching and shooting ON THE MOVE, coming off screeens etc and also has nice turn around jumpers from the post that I find impressive for his length. This will translate perfect to the NBA. He also doesn't look like he is afraid of contact, fighting for position and boxing his man. This will obviously be his weakness, but I think cousins strenth and Gays flexibility will cover Porz biggest weakness while he gets stronger. What he can do is stretch the floor, score from the post, score on the perimiter, run the floor, tip balls and on D he will be a good perimiter and help defender and just fine in Pick N Roll D where he will upgrade these areas right away. So I see both on Offense and Defense how he will improve things right away. Against bad matchups against bangers he can play more 3 to hide his shortcomings. And even his "weakness" is overblown he doesn't weigh 180 he is 220 lbs. Nothing to write home about but he only needs another 20 lbs which he can put on pretty quickly. Just my 2 cents but I don't see any other player that is "good" chance of being there when we pick that can help us on both ends the way Porz can. I don't see BUST anywhere here. Channing Frye has no where near the mobility Porz does. Frye is just a spot up jump shooter and defensive liablity. Frye can't contest shots or stay in front of his man on the outside and certainly not guard the pick n roll. Porz can already do these things. And on Offense Frye just stands behind the line and waits for the pass. Porz can get a good shot from the post or move comfortably without the ball to get some space for a jumper. He isn't going to back his man down and he isn't known to attack the rim certainly..if he could he would be going #1.. but I see no reason why he can't use his shot to get his defender off balance and 1 or 2 dribbles to the rim. How good he will be comes down to his intangibles just like with all these guys. But skill wise, what the players already have in their bag of tricks, Porz has a very interesting game that compliments Cousins and Gay very well in my opionion.

 

[Gilles]

Here's the thing: there are 2 teams in Spain on another level. Barcelona will most likely finish its toying with Unicaja today in national semi-finals as in a best of 3 series two games so far ended 91-60 and 91-70. Valencia managed to steal one from Real, but will likely succumb in game 4. Point is the level of motivation for Barcelona in any game against a bottom dweller is somewhere above 0. Where exactly is very hard to peg down. Porzingis on the other hand was obviously pumped to go against elite.

 

[kingsfan1984]

Good point Gilles

 

[kingsfan1984]

@funky, I don't think there was anything wrong in Barginani the "Prospect." Even inn Darko the prospect for that matter. You can take two prospects that appear the same, same skills same athleticism same apparent intangibles and they end up having completely different career paths in the sense 1 guy heads up, as in toward all star level and the other flat lines or very little growth...why is this? My guess at it is it has to do with how these young kids develop as men, how serious they take their craft, how much they dedicate themselves to the game and improving themselves etc. Instincts? Intuition? Smarts? Inner strength?...then you have situation, system, coaching fit etc. You know much more than I do about these things, no sarcasim or anything like that intended. I am truly interested in what you and the other posters who understand the game and players more than me have to say. Thats why I'm asking why you think very strongly Porz will bust because from what I gather I come to a very different conclusion.
In short, i don't know why Barginani flat lined. I haven't followed him much. Come to think of it, if healthy he would be a decent fit next to Cousins What was it about the Barginani prospect that you think, in hindsight or with what was known at the time, that would predict the player and career he turned out ot have/be?

 

[KingsCitizen]

I don't know if this will ease out some worries from WCS wagon, but I sneaked into some magic fans forum in realgm and they have a 2-page discussion on WCS pick and 40-page discussion on the Porz pick.
Seems most of the fan base are much happier to add offense into the team with the likes of Winslow, Hezonja, and Porz.

But one clear difference that this forum had compared to theirs, is that the fan base there seems to fully trust their GM on any pick compared to fan base here that all packed and ready to kick some FO's butt after a non-favorable pick. LOL

 

[Hansel]

 

[randymoss1881]

I don't know if this will ease out some worries from WCS wagon, but I sneaked into some magic fans forum in realgm and they have a 2-page discussion on WCS pick and 40-page discussion on the Porz pick.
Seems most of the fan base are much happier to add offense into the team with the likes of Winslow, Hezonja, and Porz.

But one clear difference that this forum had compared to theirs, is that the fan base there seems to fully trust their GM on any pick compared to fan base here that all packed and ready to kick some FO's butt after a non-favorable pick. LOL

That's what happend when you draft Payton,oladipo,Gordon and steal harris/Vucavic. Also I've been reading there an I agree they seem to think it will be down to Porzingis/ WCS/ slightly Winslow. A guy also pointed out how okc loved Porzingis last year and there gm if from okc.

 

[randymoss1881]

Draftexpres has us taking Mudiya and 76ers taking Porzingis. In this situation id love to trade Mudiya for Noel hell id even add Mik into that. Than sign Matthews.

 

[hrdboild]

Draftexpres has us taking Mudiya and 76ers taking Porzingis. In this situation id love to trade Mudiya for Noel hell id even add Mik into that. Than sign Matthews.

Not on board with the Wes Matthews acquisition (too risky IMO), but I'd still love a #6 for Nerlens Noel trade if that's remotely possible. There's players in this draft I really like (and that includes Mudiay) but the possibility of having the best post scorer in the league and the most versatile defensive big in the league sharing the same frontcourt is almost too good to be true. That's a Team USA quality frontcourt. All the things that people think they see in WCS, that's what I see in Nerlens Noel. There's maybe a half dozen players in the league that have the defensive impact that Noel does. We can add a PG and a wing defender at some point, somehow.

 

[kingsfan101]

Based on the tournament, I would be happy if we picked Winslow. Sure, that's a small sample size, and I barely know anything about most of the other prospects, as I don't watch much college BB other than the tournament.

Yes, we have picked SGs the last two years, both of whom are currently on the team, and yes, we need to find some support for DMC. That said, I am in the camp that no rookie is going to make much difference in our record. JW, I think, can be a two way player, with passion and energy that can lift a team.

 

[randymoss1881]

Not on board with the Wes Matthews acquisition (too risky IMO), but I'd still love a #6 for Nerlens Noel trade if that's remotely possible. There's players in this draft I really like (and that includes Mudiay) but the possibility of having the best post scorer in the league and the most versatile defensive big in the league sharing the same frontcourt is almost too good to be true. That's a Team USA quality frontcourt. All the things that people think they see in WCS, that's what I see in Nerlens Noel. There's maybe a half dozen players in the league that have the defensive impact that Noel does. We can add a PG and a wing defender at some point, somehow.

It's not like Wes was a uber athlete guy. Even at 11-14mill I'd take Wes if he would still play above average defense and still shoot 39% from 3 on 6-7 attemps per game. Spaces the floor amazingly for DMC/gay

 

[OptimusRhyme]

It's not like Wes was a uber athlete guy. Even at 11-14mill I'd take Wes if he would still play above average defense and still shoot 39% from 3 on 6-7 attemps per game. Spaces the floor amazingly for DMC/gay

I think Wes would be a sick addition, I seem to draft him every year in fantasy ball and he's always my most consistent/reliable baller on a nightly basis. Great for steals, threes and i'm always impressed by how well he takes care of the basketball.. His T/Os per game are super low compared to other guards that average as many minutes as him.

 

[Gilles]

Not on board with the Wes Matthews acquisition (too risky IMO), but I'd still love a #6 for Nerlens Noel trade if that's remotely possible. There's players in this draft I really like (and that includes Mudiay) but the possibility of having the best post scorer in the league and the most versatile defensive big in the league sharing the same frontcourt is almost too good to be true. That's a Team USA quality frontcourt. All the things that people think they see in WCS, that's what I see in Nerlens Noel. There's maybe a half dozen players in the league that have the defensive impact that Noel does. We can add a PG and a wing defender at some point, somehow.

1. Can't find the article, but Sixers had one of the best 4th quarter defenses last season. The main reason was it being mostly garbage time, since games were largely decided by then, and a lot of Noel's statistical prowess is based on those 4th quarters.

2. Noel had two knee injuries already: growth plate in HS and ACL in college. Both suggest full recovery, but his body has obviously shown signs of being overstressed. Kings should get consensus positive prognosis from at least 5 orthopedic specialists, before they consider this move.

 

[KingsCitizen]

IMO, the PDA unloading would impact on who we will pick in this draft.

If the FO is planning for the PDA moves cleanup, I think Stauskas would be on the trading block on draft day.
This could also open chances on Kings actually drafting Winslow to play SG/SF in rotation with Ben, which is actually something I would look forward to.

Just of the top of my head would be a trade with Minnesota for their 2 2nd round picks or 2 of Philly's 5 2nd round picks.

 

[Bricklayer]

1. Can't find the article, but Sixers had one of the best 4th quarter defenses last season. The main reason was it being mostly garbage time, since games were largely decided by then, and a lot of Noel's statistical prowess is based on those 4th quarters.

2. Noel had two knee injuries already: growth plate in HS and ACL in college. Both suggest full recovery, but his body has obviously shown signs of being overstressed. Kings should get consensus positive prognosis from at least 5 orthopedic specialists, before they consider this move.

you do your due diligence, but other than that, no, this move should be almost automatic. One of the most promising young guys in the league, doing exactly what we need done, at a position where we need help. And having already proven he can be productive in the NBA. If you're drafting #2 maybe you hold off and hope to get lucky with a star. When you are drafting #6 and a prominent goal is to drat a guy that you are just hoping might be able to emulate Noel, you take the original article Has great natural defensive instincts. Can't teach 'em. Just too skinny to play center.

Now of course its pie in the sky because if the Sixers did this they would basically be saying they didn't think he would work at PF next year...and trading him to us so we could put him at...PF. If he can play that position why would the Sixers dump him. If he can't we have to think carefully ourselves.

 

[206Fan]

Few trade notes. The scouts put WC Stein in special tier as a defensive player. Heard Cousins wants him @6 so he doesn't have to play C.

-ryenarussillo

 

[Bricklayer]

-ryenarussillo

confused: what is that a quote from? twitter? and who is ryenarussillo? and are they anyone who could have "heard" anything from Cuz, or just speculation based on old stereotypes, or parsing Karl quotes or whatever?

 

[Bosnian Diehard]

confused: what is that a quote from? twitter? and who is ryenarussillo? and are they anyone who could have "heard" anything from Cuz, or just speculation based on old stereotypes, or parsing Karl quotes or whatever?

Ryen Russillo works for ESPN, has a radio show I believe. Not sire if he is a reliable source or not.

 

[206Fan]

confused: what is that a quote from? twitter? and who is ryenarussillo? and are they anyone who could have "heard" anything from Cuz, or just speculation based on old stereotypes, or parsing Karl quotes or whatever?

"Few trade notes. The scouts put WC Stein in special tier as a defensive player. Heard Cousins wants him @6 so he doesn't have to play C." @ryenarussillo

He tweeted that on twitter

He's a co-host of an ESPN radio show. He's also followed by the Kings and the ESC Arena for what it's worth.