Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]
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As noted, Russillo is an ESPN radio host whose main focus is on basketball. He does (did?) the NBA Today podcast and seems relatively connected. He's noted on his twitter page that from here on out most of his tweets will focus on the NBA draft.
He wouldn't have heard from Boogie directly, this would be from a source within the Kings if anything.
He wouldn't have heard from Boogie directly, this would be from a source within the Kings if anything.
DMC has said flat out in the past (I think we he was on with Bill Simmons specifically) that he feels he's best suited for the 4.
A large part of the appeal to me with WCS is the lineup flexibility.
You can go big with Boogie and Cauley-Stein, you can deal with big, banging frontcourts with Boogie and JT, you can surround Cousins with shooters by moving Gay to the 4 spot or you can go ultra quick with Gay at the 4 and WCS at the 5.
A large part of the appeal to me with WCS is the lineup flexibility.
You can go big with Boogie and Cauley-Stein, you can deal with big, banging frontcourts with Boogie and JT, you can surround Cousins with shooters by moving Gay to the 4 spot or you can go ultra quick with Gay at the 4 and WCS at the 5.
Right. Offensively Boogie and Cauley-Stein would be like Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan respectively. And in situations where there's just nobody that can handle Cousins in the block you pull WCS for another shooter with Gay moving to the PF and play like Houston in the Olajuwon days.
I'm warming up to Mudiay and I think Winslow will be a very solid role player but Cauley-Stein still helps in a lot more areas and provides more flexibility IMO
I'm warming up to Mudiay and I think Winslow will be a very solid role player but Cauley-Stein still helps in a lot more areas and provides more flexibility IMO
The thing is that Cauley Stein only really frees Boogie to play PF on defense...and that's been a dicey idea all along.
On offense obviously its the defense's choice, and WCS is no particular threat, so they're going to guard Boogie with whoever they think can slow him and just put the other guy on WCS.
So unless Boogie is talking about trying to get out of playing center on defense, something he's just started to excel at and which saves him from chasing guys around the perimeter, I'm not sure WCS frees Boogie up. Now a DeAndre Jordan type, an overwhelming physical guy like that would, But WCS is not that. He's tall. but he's not a rebounder, not a force around the hoop. Teams aren't going to fear guarding him with a PF.
P.S. Not drafted related, but Kosta Koufos would do it. Provide no spacing for Cuz. But if Cuz wanted to be guarded by a PF, that's how you have to do it. Get an even bigger guy than Cuz to thug inside
On offense obviously its the defense's choice, and WCS is no particular threat, so they're going to guard Boogie with whoever they think can slow him and just put the other guy on WCS.
So unless Boogie is talking about trying to get out of playing center on defense, something he's just started to excel at and which saves him from chasing guys around the perimeter, I'm not sure WCS frees Boogie up. Now a DeAndre Jordan type, an overwhelming physical guy like that would, But WCS is not that. He's tall. but he's not a rebounder, not a force around the hoop. Teams aren't going to fear guarding him with a PF.
P.S. Not drafted related, but Kosta Koufos would do it. Provide no spacing for Cuz. But if Cuz wanted to be guarded by a PF, that's how you have to do it. Get an even bigger guy than Cuz to thug inside
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Spot on. This is my issue with drafting WCS. I like him as a player and he has value. But unless he develops a solid post game or can hit an 18 foot jumper consistently and hit the offensive boards, he's going to bog down the offense considerably. Cousins will still be getting double and triple teamed.
Not sure I follow. Wcs is intriguing on d because he can effectively chase quicker guys but still big enough to guard all but the biggest post players, which let's cuz focus on what he's doing well.
On offense, he'll definitely be less of a focus for other teams but if he can hit mid range shots at a decent rate while being a mobile athletic threat for lobs and offensive putbacks, that's ok for now.
There are only a handful of guys that stretch the floor while also providing a defensive compliment to cuz. Wcs is a plus on the defensive side while a neutral (but promising) compliment on o.
On offense, he'll definitely be less of a focus for other teams but if he can hit mid range shots at a decent rate while being a mobile athletic threat for lobs and offensive putbacks, that's ok for now.
There are only a handful of guys that stretch the floor while also providing a defensive compliment to cuz. Wcs is a plus on the defensive side while a neutral (but promising) compliment on o.
Not sure why Cousins wants to play PF. He's become one of the best defensive centers in the game. Guarding PF's is going to be tougher than C's.
I personally didn't mind Rudy playing power forward last year. I hate small ball as much as the rest of you but I felt like Rudy's defense actually looked better guarding bigger PF's. Rudy has a good frame and a lot of length and he seemed to be better suited for guarding PF's. I think it's because he's lazy on defense and it's just easier for him to guard guys who aren't as mobile. Either way it didn't turn out to be as bad as I assumed it would.
I personally didn't mind Rudy playing power forward last year. I hate small ball as much as the rest of you but I felt like Rudy's defense actually looked better guarding bigger PF's. Rudy has a good frame and a lot of length and he seemed to be better suited for guarding PF's. I think it's because he's lazy on defense and it's just easier for him to guard guys who aren't as mobile. Either way it didn't turn out to be as bad as I assumed it would.
I think people are overcomplicating this. Cauley-Stein would be a better version of Dalembert who has so far been the best frontcourt mate Cousins has had.
Jason Thompson was already handling the bigger/better post players on defense so this isn't even a change to what was happening this year.
This season Jason Thompson played in 81 of the 82 games and started the majority (63) of them. He averaged almost exactly 2 shots out of the paint per game, making them at a 40% rate. He also averaged 6 points per game on a career low 47% shooting. I can't see how swapping Cauley-Stein for Thompson will worsen the offense in any significant way. Especially since Cauley-Stein has 3 years experience in the dribble drive offense that Karl is looking to install. If you want to create spacing for Cousins on offense, draft Kaminsky. If you want to improve the team's defense take Cauley Stein. There's really nobody else that I can see that would have any impact as a big next to Cousins in the draft.
I've seen people on this board advocating that the Kings trade for Faried but then worry that Cauley-Stein would hurt Cousins on offense. Or complain about the notion of playing Gay more at the 4. Outside of Serge Ibaka there really aren't PFs out there that both stretch the floor AND provide defense/rim protection. Cauley-Stein gives the Kings one of those things. Playing Gay at the 4 (or signing/trading for a bench stretch 4) gives them the other. Looks like the Bucks finally found a taker for Ilyasova in Detroit but I had been wishing for a while that we'd send Landry and change (Ray?) for Ersan. He's vastly overpaid but when healthy a good bench stretch four that's more useful than Carl will be to the Kings.
Because (1) Cauley-Stein can defend a tall 3 on offense anyway (2) unless that tall 3 is a good rebounder you're still losing on the glass against Cousins/WCS and (3) because now you have a SF as your interior/help defender against Boogie in the post.
Jason Thompson was already handling the bigger/better post players on defense so this isn't even a change to what was happening this year.
This season Jason Thompson played in 81 of the 82 games and started the majority (63) of them. He averaged almost exactly 2 shots out of the paint per game, making them at a 40% rate. He also averaged 6 points per game on a career low 47% shooting. I can't see how swapping Cauley-Stein for Thompson will worsen the offense in any significant way. Especially since Cauley-Stein has 3 years experience in the dribble drive offense that Karl is looking to install. If you want to create spacing for Cousins on offense, draft Kaminsky. If you want to improve the team's defense take Cauley Stein. There's really nobody else that I can see that would have any impact as a big next to Cousins in the draft.
I've seen people on this board advocating that the Kings trade for Faried but then worry that Cauley-Stein would hurt Cousins on offense. Or complain about the notion of playing Gay more at the 4. Outside of Serge Ibaka there really aren't PFs out there that both stretch the floor AND provide defense/rim protection. Cauley-Stein gives the Kings one of those things. Playing Gay at the 4 (or signing/trading for a bench stretch 4) gives them the other. Looks like the Bucks finally found a taker for Ilyasova in Detroit but I had been wishing for a while that we'd send Landry and change (Ray?) for Ersan. He's vastly overpaid but when healthy a good bench stretch four that's more useful than Carl will be to the Kings.
Because (1) Cauley-Stein can defend a tall 3 on offense anyway (2) unless that tall 3 is a good rebounder you're still losing on the glass against Cousins/WCS and (3) because now you have a SF as your interior/help defender against Boogie in the post.
How much certainty do we have that WCS is going to effectively defend 3s, really? MKG, certainly more of a three-type than WCS, was hearkened as a great defender coming out of college. Last time I checked Gay tore him apart when he was matched up against him. The question really is: How much is WCS going to reduce the offensive effectiveness of the guy playing against him relative to his own offensive production? Is WCS really the guy you want chasing around screens after 3s? Is he the guy you want at the 3 point line defending the 3 where he can't be used for weak-side help or rebounding? A favorable matchup for WCS is a guy like Reggie Evans, who will always be lurking near the basket. WCS can then have a greater effect on weak side defense and double teaming bigs. (This would be offset somewhat by Evans out-rebounding him). But the further WCS gets away from the basket, the more his defensive impact is going to be reduced, imo.
Also, I really don't know what you mean by: "unless that tall 3 is a good rebounder you're still losing on the glass against Cousins/WCS. Of course rebounding Cousins + WCS >> Any 3 in the league. It's not Cousins and WCS; it's WCS vs the opposing 3. The further from the basket WCS goes, the greater the reduction of his rebounding effectiveness. If WCS were matched up against opposing 3s, I could easily see opposing 3s matching WCS rebounding output because of it.
Anyway, regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees on the specifics of the above, it would seem useful to identify what matchups WCS would be great against and those that would diminish his defensive impact on the court. If Karl is looking at WCS in the film room, he's going be asking himself what matchups would be optimal in his use of WCS. We should be asking the same thing.
Also, I really don't know what you mean by: "unless that tall 3 is a good rebounder you're still losing on the glass against Cousins/WCS. Of course rebounding Cousins + WCS >> Any 3 in the league. It's not Cousins and WCS; it's WCS vs the opposing 3. The further from the basket WCS goes, the greater the reduction of his rebounding effectiveness. If WCS were matched up against opposing 3s, I could easily see opposing 3s matching WCS rebounding output because of it.
Anyway, regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees on the specifics of the above, it would seem useful to identify what matchups WCS would be great against and those that would diminish his defensive impact on the court. If Karl is looking at WCS in the film room, he's going be asking himself what matchups would be optimal in his use of WCS. We should be asking the same thing.
First off, I don't think Thompson is that bad of a player. He rebounds and can hit a 15 footer. However, where we had problems in games was often in crunch time when we needed a basket to remain in the game. Obviously you want to get the ball to your best player. But Cousins was often rendered ineffective because teams would just put 3 defenders on him. So we had to go with Gay who I don't feel is a clutch scorer. Closing out games has been our biggest problem for 2 years. Even when we were playing well to start this past season. WCS doesn't solve that. So, although I'm perfectly fine drafting WCS, I don't think he's our savior. He would be another nice piece of the puzzle.
I also think our perimeter defense is worse than our interior D. I think WCS would have a much more difficult time defending on the perimeter in the NBA.
I also think our perimeter defense is worse than our interior D. I think WCS would have a much more difficult time defending on the perimeter in the NBA.
You can say this about any prospect. How much certainty do we have that Karl Anthony Towns is going to be a decent starting center? Well, none, because we haven't seen him play in the NBA yet. WCS routinely defended the 1-5 positions in college. Will he be able to do the same in the NBA? Well, maybe. We don't know yet. Every prospect carries the risk that their skills won't translate to the next level. No matter how CERTAIN you are that a player is going to be a star. You can never look into the future and know for sure. You can only look at what they did in college (or the EuroLeague or CBA) and hope that the skills translate.
I don't see why WCS can't defend NBA 3s. He has the elite lateral quickness to keep up with just about any athlete in the NBA, and the length to compete with the tallest Cs.
I don't see why WCS can't defend NBA 3s. He has the elite lateral quickness to keep up with just about any athlete in the NBA, and the length to compete with the tallest Cs.
I think people underestimate the impact of WCS's poor rebounding on his intimidation offensively.
Basically there are three ways a big guy can make himself enough of a presence that opposing teams will not smallball him.
1) he can have a post game. by far the best way of course, and he doesn't really. Opposing teams would love to have us trying to post hi rather than Cuz.
2) offensive rebounding. If a guy is a real force on the o-boards then you are too scared of getting pounded in there. WCS is not that either.
3) (speculative) and here is my hope, not entirely proven, but a hope. I think that Tyson Chandler style to the rim alley oops might be enough to force a defense to guard you big as well, to avoid you dunking over a smaller defender. Can't say I've ever paid close enough attention to whether that works for Chandler, but it might.
In any case, guys like Jordan or Dalembert has #2, and a little of #1. Clumsy against true centers, but enough to sometimes overwhelm smaller guys.
Basically there are three ways a big guy can make himself enough of a presence that opposing teams will not smallball him.
1) he can have a post game. by far the best way of course, and he doesn't really. Opposing teams would love to have us trying to post hi rather than Cuz.
2) offensive rebounding. If a guy is a real force on the o-boards then you are too scared of getting pounded in there. WCS is not that either.
3) (speculative) and here is my hope, not entirely proven, but a hope. I think that Tyson Chandler style to the rim alley oops might be enough to force a defense to guard you big as well, to avoid you dunking over a smaller defender. Can't say I've ever paid close enough attention to whether that works for Chandler, but it might.
In any case, guys like Jordan or Dalembert has #2, and a little of #1. Clumsy against true centers, but enough to sometimes overwhelm smaller guys.
MKG really is a fantastic defender in the NBA. It's his utter inability to shoot that hurts him. And of course he's much better against perimeter focused SFs because he's somewhat undersized. That's why Rudy gives him trouble - he's a long, powerful SF who can punish him inside and shoot over the top of him. And I'd also argue that one of the best attributes of Cauley-Stein is taht he CAN step out and defend away from the basket at a high level. Would I want him defending guards? Nope, not other than a brief show or switch on the pick and roll. On the other hand, he's absolutely the guy I want on mobile (not necessarily stretch) bigs. But I digress. It's absolutely a great thing to consider what matchups benefit a guy like Cauley-Stein.
But regardless of whether we are talking about WCS or anyone else, the question is always there when an opponent goes small - do you try to look for an advantage that your team has because of it or do you change your lineup to match your opponent? Whether the Kings draft Cauley-Stein or not (at least as the roster stands right now) Jason Thompson will likely be the starting PF on opening day. If a team goes small against the Kings now do we pull Thompson or not? I'm a JT fan but let's not pretend he's a potent post scorer.
Essentially I look at it this way - Cauley-Stein works in matchups the same way DeAndre Jordan does. If anything Cauley-Stein is a worse rebounder (mitigated by Cousin's presence) but a better free throw shooter and has the form to be a much better/more consistent midrange shooter. But both guys are low usage (on offense) defensive anchors who get their points off dives to the hoop, running out in transistion, putbacks, dishes off guard/wing penetration and alley-oops. There will be matchups where he's not ideal, that's true. But outside of the very best players in the game there are always matchups that aren't ideal. Personally I put a huge emphasis on fixing the Kings' awful defense against the pick and roll and having a guy who can disrupt the P&R with his length and quickness would go a very long way to shoring that up. And even though he's coming out as a junior I think people will be surprised to see WCS be a better, more versatile player in the pros than he was at Kentucky. Most fans didn't realize Cousins had such a good jumper or such a good handle coming out either.
I don't think Cauley-Stein is the Kings savior either. But unless Mudiay drops and is the real deal I don't see an all-star that will be there at the 6th pick. There almost certainly WILL be one because there almost always is but I can't say with confidence who that guy is. Which is why I don't know that I'll be upset on draft night regardless of who is drafted. Now if the pick is traded for a veteran player I'll likely have a strong opinion right off the bat, but Mudiay could be a star/go to player. So could Hezonja. I don't see it be possibly Porzingis. Or even a guy like Oubre or Lyles or Payne. I have no idea. But I'm pretty sure of what Cauley-Stein would bring and how it would help.
As for the Kings perimeter D being worse than the interior - part of the reason you want a guy like Chandler or Camby or Cauley-Stein is that he is a fleet footed weakside defender who recovers to help against penetration etc. He helps the perimeter D by being a guy that can help erase mistakes and blown rotations. And as mentioned, he could be a huge disruptor against the pick and roll which is one area that Thompson and Cousins have always been subpar, to put in politely.
But regardless of whether we are talking about WCS or anyone else, the question is always there when an opponent goes small - do you try to look for an advantage that your team has because of it or do you change your lineup to match your opponent? Whether the Kings draft Cauley-Stein or not (at least as the roster stands right now) Jason Thompson will likely be the starting PF on opening day. If a team goes small against the Kings now do we pull Thompson or not? I'm a JT fan but let's not pretend he's a potent post scorer.
Essentially I look at it this way - Cauley-Stein works in matchups the same way DeAndre Jordan does. If anything Cauley-Stein is a worse rebounder (mitigated by Cousin's presence) but a better free throw shooter and has the form to be a much better/more consistent midrange shooter. But both guys are low usage (on offense) defensive anchors who get their points off dives to the hoop, running out in transistion, putbacks, dishes off guard/wing penetration and alley-oops. There will be matchups where he's not ideal, that's true. But outside of the very best players in the game there are always matchups that aren't ideal. Personally I put a huge emphasis on fixing the Kings' awful defense against the pick and roll and having a guy who can disrupt the P&R with his length and quickness would go a very long way to shoring that up. And even though he's coming out as a junior I think people will be surprised to see WCS be a better, more versatile player in the pros than he was at Kentucky. Most fans didn't realize Cousins had such a good jumper or such a good handle coming out either.
I don't think Cauley-Stein is the Kings savior either. But unless Mudiay drops and is the real deal I don't see an all-star that will be there at the 6th pick. There almost certainly WILL be one because there almost always is but I can't say with confidence who that guy is. Which is why I don't know that I'll be upset on draft night regardless of who is drafted. Now if the pick is traded for a veteran player I'll likely have a strong opinion right off the bat, but Mudiay could be a star/go to player. So could Hezonja. I don't see it be possibly Porzingis. Or even a guy like Oubre or Lyles or Payne. I have no idea. But I'm pretty sure of what Cauley-Stein would bring and how it would help.
As for the Kings perimeter D being worse than the interior - part of the reason you want a guy like Chandler or Camby or Cauley-Stein is that he is a fleet footed weakside defender who recovers to help against penetration etc. He helps the perimeter D by being a guy that can help erase mistakes and blown rotations. And as mentioned, he could be a huge disruptor against the pick and roll which is one area that Thompson and Cousins have always been subpar, to put in politely.
I have little doubt that in time WCS will have as "good" a post game as Dally or Jordan. And I think he'll become a better midrange shooter than either. His rebounding rates are a reason for concern. The argument is often that Towns was plopped in the paint and Cauley-Stein often far from the basket but (1) that wasn't the case his first two years and (2) a bit too much like the the "Jimmer's coach never asked him to play defense" line of thought. Generally if a guy can do something you saw evidence of it, even if it was just flashes.
All that said, as much as I like Cauley-Stein I think he goes 4 or 5 and I'm not sure who I want the Kings to take if that's the case.
All that said, as much as I like Cauley-Stein I think he goes 4 or 5 and I'm not sure who I want the Kings to take if that's the case.
There are several misconceptions about Cauley-Stein in this thread that are worth debunking.
1. Cauley-Stein is a good offensive rebounder and poor defensive rebounder. He grabs 3.9 offensive boards per 40 minutes, which is very good. His defensive rebounding is low for a few reasons; he's a bit of a beanpole so he gets pushed around, his defensive role is to blow up pick and rolls on the perimeter so often he's outside of the paint, and at times his focus wavers and he gets caught ball-watching.
2. I see no reason why Cauley-Stein should be playing C on defense next to Boogie. Boogie is making great strides as a rim protector, and while Cauley-Stein may have the athletic tools to defend the rim equally as well, if not better, his real value is erasing the offense's screen game on the perimeter. Cauley-Stein is a swiss army knife you can use to switch on screens, hedge on screens, blitz on screens, whatever you want to do. He's like the bizarro Draymond Green who can do all of the above but is short and stubby, whereas WCS is lanky and explosive. Boogie already has enough problems with foul trouble without worrying about running after guards on the perimeter. Let WCS harass the pick and roll and let Boogie lurk on the weakside.
3. Cauley-Stein is not there as a jumpshooter yet. I seriously doubt he's going to walk onto the Kings and punish defenses for leaving him open on the perimeter. He only shoots ~60% from the FT line and, while efficient, he didn't exactly unleash his midrange jumpshot at high volume against college defenses. His best bet of making defenses pay (as a rookie) is to be a constant threat on the lob and/or rolling to the rim where he can just catch and finish with his athleticism. If we draft Cauley-Stein I hope Boogie watches some tape of how Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan work the big-to-big lob game.
1. Cauley-Stein is a good offensive rebounder and poor defensive rebounder. He grabs 3.9 offensive boards per 40 minutes, which is very good. His defensive rebounding is low for a few reasons; he's a bit of a beanpole so he gets pushed around, his defensive role is to blow up pick and rolls on the perimeter so often he's outside of the paint, and at times his focus wavers and he gets caught ball-watching.
2. I see no reason why Cauley-Stein should be playing C on defense next to Boogie. Boogie is making great strides as a rim protector, and while Cauley-Stein may have the athletic tools to defend the rim equally as well, if not better, his real value is erasing the offense's screen game on the perimeter. Cauley-Stein is a swiss army knife you can use to switch on screens, hedge on screens, blitz on screens, whatever you want to do. He's like the bizarro Draymond Green who can do all of the above but is short and stubby, whereas WCS is lanky and explosive. Boogie already has enough problems with foul trouble without worrying about running after guards on the perimeter. Let WCS harass the pick and roll and let Boogie lurk on the weakside.
3. Cauley-Stein is not there as a jumpshooter yet. I seriously doubt he's going to walk onto the Kings and punish defenses for leaving him open on the perimeter. He only shoots ~60% from the FT line and, while efficient, he didn't exactly unleash his midrange jumpshot at high volume against college defenses. His best bet of making defenses pay (as a rookie) is to be a constant threat on the lob and/or rolling to the rim where he can just catch and finish with his athleticism. If we draft Cauley-Stein I hope Boogie watches some tape of how Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan work the big-to-big lob game.
Winslow, theoretically, is exactly the type of small forward that the Kings would need if Rudy Gay were to play the PF spot more frequently. He's a tenacious defender, he's an excellent rebounder (even better than Cauley-Stein), he can shoot, handle in a pinch, decent passer.
That, and wing defense is a discrete need on this team. McLemore is only slightly above average and Gay is awful. And we're not even going to get into Stauskas, Casspi and Williams off the bench.
That, and wing defense is a discrete need on this team. McLemore is only slightly above average and Gay is awful. And we're not even going to get into Stauskas, Casspi and Williams off the bench.
