Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

Which draft lottery slot will King's get this evening?


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Spike

Subsidiary Intermediary
Staff member
Any time you can add a potential star, at any position, I wouldn't call that a wasted pick. We don't need a SF either, but I'd still take Stanley Johnson if he's the top player on my board when the pick comes around because we can find him minutes if he deserves them. Realistically we have an MVP caliber starting center, a borderline All-Star at SF, a solid starting PG who's probably in the 15-25 range at his position, and a couple of SGs who are more potential than production right now. We have no bench. All of our PF options are terrible. Our backup PG is 39. Our backup SF is a minimum contract vet. Both those guys are free agents. We have no backup C. What I don't want to see is a situation where we look back in 2 years and think "wow, we really missed on that guy -- we'd be in the playoffs right now if we'd drafted him". I don't care about positions, I just want the best talent on the board. We can find minutes for an All-Star level player at any position. You don't fix issues with the draft at the #6 pick, you take the most talented player you can get and move on from there.
Normally, I'd agree with you, but we've painted ourselves in a corner during these past two years such to the point that we just can't risk it. Drafting for talent vs. need right now would still leave us with all of those holes you mentioned, except with a rookie who may or may not help us at a time when we need it.
Do you think Mudiay can contribute now? If so, then it's not as big an issue, but we just can't afford the chance, when we're better off using our available assets to plug a hole at the PF or SG position.
If we missed, in two years we'd be replacing Cousins as well. I'd rather take the safe route. WCS, if he's available, and if not, trade the pick to plug a hole. If that avenue is exhausted, THEN I think about random potential. We're not building from scratch; we're trying to build around Cousins and win now.
 
Right now I wouldn't take PGs from Spurs, Rockets, Pels, Blazers or Mavs to replace Collison for various reasons (age, health, contract, really bad D, shooting).
I want to discuss, but you just said you'd take Collison over Lillard. I don't know where to go from there.

All of those PGs are former All Stars, NBA champs or All NBA defensive players.
 
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Any time you can add a potential star, at any position, I wouldn't call that a wasted pick. We don't need a SF either, but I'd still take Stanley Johnson if he's the top player on my board when the pick comes around because we can find him minutes if he deserves them. Realistically we have an MVP caliber starting center, a borderline All-Star at SF, a solid starting PG who's probably in the 15-25 range at his position, and a couple of SGs who are more potential than production right now. We have no bench. All of our PF options are terrible. Our backup PG is 39. Our backup SF is a minimum contract vet. Both those guys are free agents. We have no backup C. What I don't want to see is a situation where we look back in 2 years and think "wow, we really missed on that guy -- we'd be in the playoffs right now if we'd drafted him". I don't care about positions, I just want the best talent on the board. We can find minutes for an All-Star level player at any position. You don't fix issues with the draft at the #6 pick, you take the most talented player you can get and move on from there.
I don't think anyone argues the general premise that you should select the best player you can. However, the idea of the other side is to draft a talented young man who would be the best contributor to the team's success this year. The other side that you are arguing against views it this way:

Would you rather have Cousins and a talented player at 6?

OR

Would you rather have a star level talented player at 6 and no Cousins?

That is why so many people disagree with you on this topic. You may try to pull up examples of people who were considered NBA ready that took longer to produce, but there are exceptions to everything. Just because something goes against the odds one time, it doesn't mean you should start betting against the odds.

And you might even try to say that Cousins will understand and be patient if we draft a player that you suggest. That's quite an assumption. You can see the frustration building for Cousins. If you make it 6 years of losing, that might just push him to the brink. I don't want to see Cousins leave, so all of our moves this offseason should make the team better as efficiently as possible.

Cauley-Stein is considered an NBA ready player. He's played 3 years in college, has legit NBA size, freakish athleticism, and excellent defense. He's 240lbs which is respectable for an NBA PF. There's nothing about him that suggest his size, athleticism, defense, rebounding, & shotblocking won't carry over right away. All of his strengths are areas that the Kings lack in. He's definitely one of the top players in this draft when it comes to 2015-16 team contribution.

If you were to step back and ask yourself, what player will help us win the most next year, that should really be how our draft board looks because 6th pick (NBA ready player) and Cousins is greater than 6th pick (higher potential/non-NBA ready player) and no Cousins every single day of the week.
 
I don't think anyone argues the general premise that you should select the best player you can. However, the idea of the other side is to draft a talented young man who would be the best contributor to the team's success this year. The other side that you are arguing against views it this way:

Would you rather have Cousins and a talented player at 6?

OR

Would you rather have a star level talented player at 6 and no Cousins?

That is why so many people disagree with you on this topic. You may try to pull up examples of people who were considered NBA ready that took longer to produce, but there are exceptions to everything. Just because something goes against the odds one time, it doesn't mean you should start betting against the odds.

And you might even try to say that Cousins will understand and be patient if we draft a player that you suggest. That's quite an assumption. You can see the frustration building for Cousins. If you make it 6 years of lostalenthat might just push him to the brink. I don't want to see Cousins leave, so all of our moves this offseason should make the team better as efficiently as possible.

Cauley-Stein is considered an NBA ready player. He's played 3 years in college, has legit NBA size, freakish athleticism, and excellent defense. He's 240lbs which is respectable for an NBA PF. There's nothing about him that suggest his size, athleticism, defense, rebounding, & shotblocking won't carry over right away. All of his strengths are areas that the Kings lack in. He's definitely one of the top players in this draft when it comes to 2015-16 team contribution.

If you were to step back and ask yourself, what player will help us win the most next year, that should really be how our draft board looks because 6th pick (NBA ready player) and Cousins is greater than 6th pick (higher potential/non-NBA ready player) and no Cousins every single day of the week.
Funkykingston made a point multiple times on something I've been unable to say as effectively......if we draft simply to appease Cousins, we could end up like Orlando did with Howard. Howard left anyways and Orlando was left with nothing.

Again, no draftee is going to make us a contender immediately. No such thing as NBA ready. Whoever it is will come off the bench. So take the talent with the pick and use free agents to round out the team.
 
I want to discuss, but you just said you'd take Collison over Lillard. I don't know where to go from there.
He's 1 year away from making 25% of $90 million. Lillard is 25 already, more of a chucker, who doesn't shoot that well, and a poor defender at position, that sees most penetration/needs most defensive attention. So, yeah, I would take Collison for this team as currently constructed.

P.S. How much additional value does a guy, who will lessen defensive burden/limit foul trouble of your franchise player, letting him play more minutes, have?
 
He's 1 year away from making 25% of $90 million. Lillard is 25 already, more of a chucker, who doesn't shoot that well, and a poor defender at position, that sees most penetration/needs most defensive attention. So, yeah, I would take Collison for this team as currently constructed.

P.S. How much additional value does a guy, who will lessen defensive burden/limit foul trouble of your franchise player, letting him play more minutes, have?
I should have clarified that I was specifically talking about what players bring to the court.

As far as WCS goes, I didn't say I don't like him or that he doesn't serve a purpose. I wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. But he won't help us win now. Think back to recent draft picks we've had that were NBA ready and how it's gone. Looks good on paper, but you won't reap the rewards, if any, until about that 3rd or 4th year. So just take the talent.
 

hrdboild

Moloch in whom I dream Angels!
Staff member
I don't think anyone argues the general premise that you should select the best player you can. However, the idea of the other side is to draft a talented young man who would be the best contributor to the team's success this year. The other side that you are arguing against views it this way:

Would you rather have Cousins and a talented player at 6?

OR

Would you rather have a star level talented player at 6 and no Cousins?

That is why so many people disagree with you on this topic. You may try to pull up examples of people who were considered NBA ready that took longer to produce, but there are exceptions to everything. Just because something goes against the odds one time, it doesn't mean you should start betting against the odds.

And you might even try to say that Cousins will understand and be patient if we draft a player that you suggest. That's quite an assumption. You can see the frustration building for Cousins. If you make it 6 years of losing, that might just push him to the brink. I don't want to see Cousins leave, so all of our moves this offseason should make the team better as efficiently as possible.

Cauley-Stein is considered an NBA ready player. He's played 3 years in college, has legit NBA size, freakish athleticism, and excellent defense. He's 240lbs which is respectable for an NBA PF. There's nothing about him that suggest his size, athleticism, defense, rebounding, & shotblocking won't carry over right away. All of his strengths are areas that the Kings lack in. He's definitely one of the top players in this draft when it comes to 2015-16 team contribution.

If you were to step back and ask yourself, what player will help us win the most next year, that should really be how our draft board looks because 6th pick (NBA ready player) and Cousins is greater than 6th pick (higher potential/non-NBA ready player) and no Cousins every single day of the week.
I just don't think there's anybody who meets that criteria, other than perhaps Karl Towns. We could sell the pick for 50 percent of what it's worth just to get a veteran, but I don't like that option either. So while I agree that we need to find some kind of progress to prove to DeMarcus that the franchise isn't a lost cause (a problem we created ourselves by firing Malone, btw) I think it's a mistake to start looking at the draft exclusively in those terms. I've suggested elsewhere that we should try to get Rajon Rondo. His value is low enough now that we can afford him, Cousins loves him, Rudy loves him, and he might actually end up being a great player for us.

Not very many people liked that idea, which is fine. It's not the only option but I think it's a good one. Brandon Knight might be too expensive for us. I like Ed Davis and Thomas Robinson as free agent signings too, if we can afford them. Both showed signs of breaking out last season. Davis would probably be a more effective PF option for us next season than Cauley-Stein would. He's a 5 year veteran who averaged 13 and 12 with 2 blocks and 2 assists per/36 last year and shot 60% from the field. Robinson averaged 9 and 8 in 18 minutes off the bench for Philadelphia which makes him a better bench PF option than Landry and maybe even Thompson.

Basically I'm looking at free agency and trades as ways to bolster the roster for next year. If we do draft Mudiay and sign a veteran guard like Rondo with our cap space, we can see what the market offers for Collison and/or Stauskas as well.
 
I should have clarified that I was specifically talking about what players bring to the court.

As far as WCS goes, I didn't say I don't like him or that he doesn't serve a purpose. I wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. But he won't help us win now. Think back to recent draft picks we've had that were NBA ready and how it's gone. Looks good on paper, but you won't reap the rewards, if any, until about that 3rd or 4th year. So just take the talent.
Yeah, let's compare WCS with Jimmer.

I just don't think there's anybody who meets that criteria, other than perhaps Karl Towns. We could sell the pick for 50 percent of what it's worth just to get a veteran, but I don't like that option either. So while I agree that we need to find some kind of progress to prove to DeMarcus that the franchise isn't a lost cause (a problem we created ourselves by firing Malone, btw) I think it's a mistake to start looking at the draft exclusively in those terms. I've suggested elsewhere that we should try to get Rajon Rondo. His value is low enough now that we can afford him, Cousins loves him, Rudy loves him, and he might actually end up being a great player for us.

Not very many people liked that idea, which is fine. It's not the only option but I think it's a good one. Brandon Knight might be too expensive for us. I like Ed Davis and Thomas Robinson as free agent signings too, if we can afford them. Both showed signs of breaking out last season. Davis would probably be a more effective PF option for us next season than Cauley-Stein would. He's a 5 year veteran who averaged 13 and 12 with 2 blocks and 2 assists per/36 last year and shot 60% from the field. Robinson averaged 9 and 8 in 18 minutes off the bench for Philadelphia which makes him a better bench PF option than Landry and maybe even Thompson.

Basically I'm looking at free agency and trades as ways to bolster the roster for next year. If we do draft Mudiay and sign a veteran guard like Rondo with our cap space, we can see what the market offers for Collison and/or Stauskas as well.
So did Derrick Williams. All three did it on tanking teams.
Davis is a thin center - he can't shoot, so he's a horrible fit next to Boogie offensively. And even Lakers were better defensively without Davis on the floor.
Kings need proven contributors, not misfits.
 
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funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
Payne won't be a star pg if he's taken over WCS I will be pissed.
I'm a big fan of both players but WCS is higher on my board. That said, if Cauley-Stein is gone (and I'm starting to get the feeling he will be) then I don't think it's a ridiculous idea to consider Payne. Lillard and Payton are two PGs from small schools that made big leaps up team's boards leading up to draft night. Personally I think Payne has a very good shot of being better than Payton because he's a much better shooter and Payton's mechanics will have to be totally overhauled for him to ever be good in that area.

Comparing Payne to Lillard's sophomore year and Payton's Junior year (when they were all about the same age) some of the numbers are very similar. Especially considering they played small conferences facing approximately the same talent level. To quibble I'd say the OVC is slightly stronger than the Big Sky and a another notch above the Sun Belt. (no pun intended)

All three are about the same size with Payton being a bit taller and bigger but they all have relatively similar wingspans, reaches, weights, etc. Lillard recorded significantly higher verticals but Payne and Payton were both around 30" for no step and 35" for their max vs Dame's 34" and 39"

All three averaged just about 20 ppg (20.2, 19.9 and 19.2 respectively)
In terms of assists Payne and Payton were right at 6 APG while Lillard was at 3.6 (he topped out at 4 apg as a senior)
But Payne did it with fewer turnovers (2.5 per game vs 3.6 for Payton) with Lillard at 2.4 per game

FG% for was .456 for Payne, .431 for Lillard and .509 for Payton
A good clip for Elfrid but it's because he took fewer jumpers and more shots at the rim

3P% was .377 for Payne, .393 for Lillard and .259 for Payton
Payne and Lillard both took over 6 threes per game (6.4 and 6.9) while Payton wisely only took 1.5 per.

Steals go 1.9, 1.1 and 2.3 respectively emphasizing that Payton was a ballhawk with Payne not far behind and Lillard more focused on the offensive end
Payne and Payton each blocked about half a shot per game vs 0.1 for Lillard

Payton was the best rebounder at 6 per with Payne and Lillard at 3.7 and 4 respectively.

In terms of advanced stats Payne had the highest PER, the highest effective FG%, the highest assist percentage (by a decent margin) AND had both the highest offensive rating and defensive rating of the three.

I'm not saying Cameron Payne will be as good as Lillard or Payton, but his numbers say he's in that same range and my eyes tell me he's that rare PG who can both score (including shooting from outside) and run a team very well.
 

rainmaker

Hall of Famer
Yet, PG really isn't a position of need. It probably isn't one of our top three issues (considering we can probably fix 2 issues at best). Wasting a pick on a PG with potential means Cousins is one step closer out the door.
And trade that pick for a veteran who's nearly hit his ceiling while our would be pick becomes a star or shows flashes of star talent, also could see Cuz one foot closer to the door.

Goes both ways. There's risk involved no matter what. I personally don't see Cuz being all that happy if we swap our pick for an average vet who gives us 5-10 more wins if that pick of ours shows flashes of being a star. I'd also say, again as I keep on saying, too many are looking only at this pick to turn things around. Our starting 5 was pretty good last year. We need to upgrade the bench. Whether Mudiay or WCS, they help our bench. There needs to be more of a premium put on free agency. Get your SG upgrade, get your starting 4. It doesn't have to be the draft.

Actually, if we fail this summer it's likely going to be far more because of poor trades or bottoming out in free agency than anything to do with the draft. The draft is just a free flier on a prospect. If we needed a star I'd feel differently but we don't, we need 2nd tier role players. That can be had in free agency. Do well in free agency and taking a chance on WCS/Mudiay is far more reasonable.

As far as Mudiay, would anyone complain if we added a rookie level Reke with better decision making on 3M/Y? Would that not help us? If we go back to Reke's rookie year and considered upside, would Cuz not be excited about the potential there? I don't get where this "if" Mudiay can contribute talk comes from. We had 80 yr old Dre contribute positively for us last year. We had freakin Ray who belongs overseas getting decent mins. We have a coach who's great with PG's. But to each their own. Ballers recognize ballers. Game recognizes game. If we draft a baller, Cuz will recognize it.
 
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Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
And trade that pick for a veteran who's nearly hit his ceiling while our would be pick becomes a star or shows flashes of star talent, also could see Cuz one foot closer to the door.
That's nowhere near our top concern right now though. If we blow this pick Cuz may not be around long enough to ever worry about who we drafted or did not draft. We need to get the big guy into the playoffs TODAY. You can't plan 3 years ahead when your whole world may collapse inside a year. You have no choice but to shore it up now, and if you've got issues three years from you you're happy -- means you made it that long and have had years to clean them up.

And if we get Cuz to the playoffs this year, he's really not going to give an f who we drafted or didn't to do it. We treat Cuz like he's young, but he's not quite anymore. He's in mid career now and has got more in common with Rudy Gay generationwise than he will with some 19yr old numbnuts kid 6 years his junior.

Anybody who can step in and play effectively for a playoff team is welcome. 19yrs old, 22yrd old, 30yrs old via trade, whatever. Anybody who can't is a huge threat. We have few assets, if our next pick is as bad as rookie Ben or rookie Nik we are screwed no matter how good they become 5 years from now. Cuz is a vet, we need to become a vet team around him not a daycare for kids who should have stayed in school. If a kid is good enough to hang with the grown men in a playoff hunt, great, welcome aboard. If he's not, then shove a crayon into his hand and pass him on down the line to a franchise that can afford patience for a kiddie corps. Cuz can win anywhere around the NBA. He doesn't need us for that. If we're ****ing around developing this kid or that kid rather than winning there really is no reason for him want to be here. And if we struggle again, it will give Karl, PDA, or anybody else around who wants him gone all the ammunition they need.
 
That's nowhere near our top concern right now though. If we blow this pick Cuz may not be around long enough to ever worry about who we drafted or did not draft. We need to get the big guy into the playoffs TODAY. You can't plan 3 years ahead when your whole world may collapse inside a year. You have no choice but to shore it up now, and if you've got issues three years from you you're happy -- means you made it that long and have had years to clean them up.

And if we get Cuz to the playoffs this year, he's really not going to give an f who we drafted or didn't to do it. We treat Cuz like he's young, but he's not quite anymore. He's in mid career now and has got more in common with Rudy Gay generationwise than he will with some 19yr old numbnuts kid 6 years his junior.

Anybody who can step in and play effectively for a playoff team is welcome. 19yrs old, 22yrd old, 30yrs old via trade, whatever. Anybody who can't is a huge threat. We have few assets, if our next pick is as bad as rookie Ben or rookie Nik we are screwed no matter how good they become 5 years from now. Cuz is a vet, we need to become a vet team around him not a daycare for kids who should have stayed in school. If a kid is good enough to hang with the grown men in a playoff hunt, great, welcome aboard. If he's not, then shove a crayon into his hand and pass him on down the line to a franchise that can afford patience for a kiddie corps. Cuz can win anywhere around the NBA. He doesn't need us for that. If we're ****ing around developing this kid or that kid rather than winning there really is no reason for him want to be here. And if we struggle again, it will give Karl, PDA, or anybody else around who wants him gone all the ammunition they need.
Totally agree! Which is why trading the pick seems like the right thing to do. Now I honestly don't think we will trade the pick because we never do stuff like that, I know that's not a good argument, but it just seems like the Kings are the Kings and always will be.

Anyway I digress, none of these players in the draft that we are discussing really make sense. I think Winslow could be great, he's got game on both sides of the ball and one of those 30 year old bodies on a 19 year old kid, think LeBron James and Amare Stoudemire. However he is a 19 year old kid and will need time to develop, we don't have time. Mudiay I think is even younger and more raw than Winslow. Cauley-Stein has three years of experience which is nice, but is purely defensive focused. A lot of us here may like that, but I don't think that is the direction that this team is going, I don't think he fits. Porzingis fits, but coming from Europe there is always an adjustment period, he will need time also. That is just about the whole group that will be available to us and that we would consider.

If the Kings don't make the playoffs or come extremely close this year I do think Cousins will be traded next offseason while I would expect his value to still be high. So we do need to make a trade here and it has to be the right one, a player on his way up, not on his way down. There is more risk there, but simply getting a player like Aaron Afflalo or Taj Gibson isn't enough.
 
IMO, only Towns is the unmovable pick in this draft.

Anything can happen from 2 down to 10.
Lakers are a mess ever since Dr. Buss's kids started handling the FO so who knows if they'll pull a Micheal Jordan move.
Certainly 1 PG would go to the 76ers and New York could add anybody next to Melo.

Hezonja could go as high as 2 and even a good shot at NY because the media in these 2 cities would surely love the flare of this kid.
Skiles certainly puts a lot of pressure on a WCS pick for Orlando.
 
Flip really likes Okafor, though Wolves can always switch with Lakers for minor consideration.

Skiles was recommended/ordered to Hennigan apparently, so it's not clear, if Hennigan will listen to Skiles that much. WCS somewhat fits the mold of players, Hennigan likes though, but Porzingis is likely as well. Orlando is apparently looking for big man in FA anyhow, so they'll just go BPA route, it seems.
 
Seriously, drafting WCS at 6 and signing Matthews in FA really improves this team. Our starting five last year was very good when healthy, this improves our defense and shooting, and upgrades two positions. It also improves the bench as we can move JT and Ben there. Then sign another couple of low-medium level vets with whatever exceptions/cap space we have left.

Cousins
WCS
Gay
Matthews
Collison

That's a well balanced starting line-up and one that should challenge for the 8th spot with Karl at the helm.

I'm not sure trading #6 for Rubio/MKG (to take Brick's proposal as an example) and signing Matthews would be any better than the above. But then again I really believe WCS is going to be a difference maker from the start and is a great fit next to Boogie. Some may not believe that.

You just don't see guys like WCS fail.
 
It seems like Hezonja is being slept on. If WCS is off the board then id take Hezonja with our pick. He has really good physical tools and can shoot.

Im not too high on Mudiay. The fact that in addition to his lack of shooting ability hes also a poor free throw shooter wreaks of someone who will never develop a reliable shot.
 

dude12

Hall of Famer
Minnesota playing the draft game with smoke screens or.......

Twolves are bringing in Mudiay for a workout and are said to be strongly considering Mudiay for the 1st pick. Mudiay's agent has said he would workout for any team in the top 5. If he's there at 6 when we pick and don't take him, this will be the Kings again passing on a longterm PG.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
It seems like Hezonja is being slept on. If WCS is off the board then id take Hezonja with our pick. He has really good physical tools and can shoot.

Im not too high on Mudiay. The fact that in addition to his lack of shooting ability hes also a poor free throw shooter wreaks of someone who will never develop a reliable shot.
Perhaps because the idea of drafting 3 straight SGs in the lottery is kind of something from a bad comedy sketch.
 
It's an empty gym. Not much you can truly glean from that.
I agree with you that it's only one on none, but we mostly just want to know if he can hit an open jumper. We already know about his defensive ability.... all he needs to really do for us is play defense, rebound, and hit the open jumper.
 
Minnesota playing the draft game with smoke screens or.......

Twolves are bringing in Mudiay for a workout and are said to be strongly considering Mudiay for the 1st pick. Mudiay's agent has said he would workout for any team in the top 5. If he's there at 6 when we pick and don't take him, this will be the Kings again passing on a longterm PG.
Unless the guy is going to be the next guaranteed Michael Jordan, I don't want to be taking ANY player ever without working him out. Too risky, we need to get this pick right.
 

funkykingston

Super Moderator
Staff member
Minnesota playing the draft game with smoke screens or.......

Twolves are bringing in Mudiay for a workout and are said to be strongly considering Mudiay for the 1st pick. Mudiay's agent has said he would workout for any team in the top 5. If he's there at 6 when we pick and don't take him, this will be the Kings again passing on a longterm PG.
But there's also shades of Thomas Robinson there. Presumptive top three pick slides to the Kings who draft him without working him out.

Now I know it's because I personally haven't seen enough tape on him but my feeling is that Mudiay is one prospect I would definitely want to workout before drafting him.