MOCK DRAFTS: consensus from the experts?

CruzDude

CruzDude

Senior Member sharing a brew with bajaden
Decided to make a separate thread of the consensus of the 17 mock drafts I am following. Won't list them all (if someone wants the list please email me) but will give consensus updated about every week as to who these geniuses think will be available at #12 for the Kings. All entries in these mocks were updated in the range of 21-27 May. I also list a consensus of those rated at slots 13-15 by the same folk.

8 of the 17 now see Russell Westbrook at #12 for the Kings, up from 4 of the 17
3 of the 17 see Darrell Arthur, the 6-10 soph PF from Kansas, in this slot
last 6 mocks see 6 different guys

most see Alexander, Jordan, Greene and McGee 13-15.

Slipping down seem to be Augustin, Speights, Batum and Love

Moving up seem to include Robin Lopez and Joe Alexander

Otherwise a genuine crapshoot. None of these guys seem to be playing in Orlando at the NBA camp this week but individual workouts start Tuesday, 3 June so stay tuned.

UPDATES: latest one on 20-June at end of this thread.
Summary
Westbrook (rising) now in slots 6-11 across the board
Arthur (falling) now in slots 14-18
Alexander (rising) to slots 8-12
Randolph (rising) in slots 6-12
Concensus for Kings @ #12: Randolph 44%, Alexander 33%
Other tid-bits: Brook Lopez is falling to slots 7-9, Speights is down in 15-23 and Jason Thompson is still off the radar.
 
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LPKingsFan said:
Thanks for doing this. Are you planning regular updates?
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Will try for weekly here in the last 4 weeks before the draft. But a lot of sites don't update that frequently. Trying to come up with a presentable way to show consensus for slots 9-15, hopefully by end of this week.
 
UPDATE: Sunday, 1 June

The top 15-20 prospects who did not play in the Orlando Predraft camp have gone through their initial workouts in Orlando along with measurements (I think they get published Mon-Tue), skills workouts (3/4 court run, dribbling, shooting, lateral quickness, etc) and bench pressing 185 lb barbell.

Quick tidbits gleaned late Saturday, 31-May on some 10-15 pick players (some pieces from Chad Ford ESPN):

Russell Westbrook: 6-3 PG, UCLA, climbing in draft and now becoming unlikely at #12; rated above D.J.Augustin now

JaVale McGee: 7-0 C, Nevada, doesn't appear to be in very good shape, falling as is more raw than expected, not shooting well.

DeAndre Jordan: 7-0 C, in better shape, runs floor well, struggles in skills tests, giant questions about capabilities.

Darrell Arthur: 6-11 PF, Kansas, from ESPN's Chad Ford who was there watching, "as skilled and athletic as any big man there", exploded in footwork drills, great 15-18 foot shooting, flies up and down court. Scores inside and out."

BOTTOM LINE: Westbrook looking more likely to be gone by #12 as is D.J.Augustin, Darrell Arthur moving up to 11-13 range, Greene didn't show much.

Of the bunch of second round wanna-be types who played 3 games of 5-on-5 this week, two PG's stood out, Sean Singletary and Ty Lawson. Sean looked more NBA ready to be a backup PG with superior defense over a wide range and excellent shooting off of pick-and-rolls. Lawson is a speed demon bringing the ball up but at times was out of control.

A dark horse also bubbled up from this group who may have lower half of first round possibilities, Deron Washington from VaTech. Great long armed defender with great lateral quickness. 4 yrs at VT increased stats every year and as Sr had 13 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.3 ast, and 67% FT up from 50% year before in 33 min/gm.
 
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CruzDude said:
The top 15-20 prospects who did not play in the Orlando Predraft camp have gone through their initial workouts in Orlando along with measurements, skills workouts (3/4 court run, dribbling, shooting, lateral quickness, etc) and bench pressing 185 lb barbell.

Quick tidbits gleaned late Saturday, 31-May on some 10-15 pick players (some pieces from Chad Ford ESPN):

Russell Westbrook: 6-3 PG, UCLA, climbing in draft and now becoming unlikely at #12; rated above D.J.Augustin now

JaVale McGee: 7-0 C, Nevada, doesn't appear to be in very good shape, falling as is more raw than expected, not shooting well.

BOTTOM LINE: Westbrook looking more likely to be gone by #12, D.J.Augustin may not be best available at #12, Darrell Arthur moving up to 11-14 range, Greene didn't show much.

DeAndre Jordan: 7-0 C, in better shape, runs floor well, struggles in skills tests, giant questions about capabilities.

Darrell Arthur: 6-11 PF, Kansas, from ESPN's Chad Ford who was there watching, "as skilled and athletic as any big man there", exploded in footwork drills, great 15-18 foot shooting, flies up and down court. Scores inside and out."

Of the bunch of second round wanna-be types who played 3 games of 5-on-5 this week, two PG's stood out, Sean Singletary and Ty Lawson. Sean looked more NBA ready to be a backup PG with superior defense over a wide range and excellent shooting off of pick-and-rolls. Lawson is a speed demon bringing the ball up but at times was out of control.

A dark horse also bubbled up from this group who may have lower half of first round possibilities, Deron Washington from VaTech. Great long armed defender with great lateral quickness. 4 yrs at VT increased stats every year and as Sr had 13 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.3 ast, and 67% FT up from 50% year before in 33 min/gm.
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Having watched all the games available, I would argue that Mike Taylor was far superior to Singletary. I had him ranked as the second best Pt guard there after Lawson. He's also just as quick as Lawson or Singletary. He played in the developmental league last year.
 
Only issue with Taylor is he seems to be a pure shooter and is only 6-2. In conference playoff and championship games this year his assist average is under 2.0 and for season assist average was only 4.3 and ast/TO was 1.2. Steals average was 1.3 for the year. His stats don't bear out his play appearance tho'.
 
CruzDude said:
Only issue with Taylor is he seems to be a pure shooter and is only 6-2. In conference playoff and championship games this year his assist average is under 2.0 and for season assist average was only 4.3 and ast/TO was 1.2. Steals average was 1.3 for the year. His stats don't bear out his play appearance tho'.
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I have no idea what his stats are. To be honest, I had never heard of him until I saw him play at the camp. I watched him play two games and he played extremely well. He is a very good shooter, but I was impressed with his pt play as well. He made a couple of outstanding passes in each game. I was projecting him as a pt guard and 6'2" is plenty tall enough for that position. He is extremely quick, and created his own shot with no problem.

I try not to get caught up too much in stats, particularly if I don't know how he aquired them. We don't know how he was used in the D league, so its hard to know how accurate the stats are.
 
bajaden said:
I have no idea what his stats are. To be honest, I had never heard of him until I saw him play at the camp. I watched him play two games and he played extremely well. He is a very good shooter, but I was impressed with his pt play as well. He made a couple of outstanding passes in each game. I was projecting him as a pt guard and 6'2" is plenty tall enough for that position. He is extremely quick, and created his own shot with no problem.

I try not to get caught up too much in stats, particularly if I don't know how he aquired them. We don't know how he was used in the D league, so its hard to know how accurate the stats are.
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Very good point. The stats I looked at were his 2008 playoff games (conf champs and D-League Finals) and his season average. A shooter he is and creating shots in D-League is one level. As you say it will probably get him some looks that prior he might not have gotten. Thanks for your update.
 
General update, 6/10

Well TDOS fans, one week later (6/10) and only 2 of the 11 mocks I check had any changes and they were only in the top 6 or 7, nothing affecting their views of who would be there at #12.

An interesting overview tho' is that everyone says the top 2 are Beasley and Rose. However, the 11 mocks seem split pretty well on 3-6:
#3 seems to be mostly Lopez (4), Mayo (4)
#4 across the board seems to have Bayless (9) going to the Sonics
#5 across the board is either Love or Brook Lopez
#6 gets split pretty much between 2 players: Mayo (3) and Gallinari (6)
#7 sees Gordon get 6 of the 11 mocks but then 4 different players also get picked
#8 - #12 becomes a real crapshoot depending on which pundit you like or believe more than another.

What is heard on the streets this week is that Miami (Pat Riley specifically) at #2 likes O.J.Mayo more than Beasley, assuming the Bulls take Rose.

Lopez, Love and Gallinari show up anywhere from #3 to #9 so hard to figure. In NBA terms, Lopez is a true C and Love more a PF and Gallinari a SF.

By the time the "experts" get down to the #10 slot, they all (10 of 11) agree on Jordan, Randolph or Arthur.

And by the time we get to the Kings at #12 there are 7 different players they slot down there, so no real consensus anymore. Westbrooke, who the Kings might like is picked at #11 or sooner in 7 of the 11 with only 2 seeing him fall to the Kings at #12.

So goes the crap shoot. Would expect to see an update of note this weekend after the first 10 days of individual workouts are done. I personally want to see if Hibbert, Jordan and McGee, the 7-footers, climb up the mock draft ladder and therefore, see who falls to let them in.
 
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This could effect who is available at #12

Dave D'Alessandro in the Newark Star-Ledger today had these bits about Danilo Gallinari who is expected to go in the 8-10 range (Nets have #10) in the draft:

.....then let us know that there are but two options for him: He'll either play for the Nets and Knicks, or head back to Europe, where he can cash in handsomely for the next decade.

Then in a converstation with several others including his dad the following question/answer came up after it seemed to be apparent the Knicks at #6 were more after a PG than a scoring SF:

What makes you so sure he's headed back to Italy?

We're told he has a humongous offer on the table from Milan. And he's only 19. Danilo can always come over when he's ready.

So if Gallinari opts for Europe, that could mean that Augustin and Westbrook both slide up a slot putting the top 5 PG's in the draft into 1-11 for sure and loading up the 12-20 slots with the better BIGS. hmmmm
 
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CruzDude said:
Dave D'Alessandro in the Newark Star-Ledger today had these bits about Danilo Gallinari who is expected to go in the 8-10 range (Nets have #10) in the draft:

.....then let us know that there are but two options for him: He'll either play for the Nets and Knicks, or head back to Europe, where he can cash in handsomely for the next decade.

Then in a converstation with several others including his dad the following question/answer came up after it seemed to be apparent the Knicks at #6 were more after a PG than a scoring SF:

What makes you so sure he's headed back to Italy?

We're told he has a humongous offer on the table from Milan. And he's only 19. Danilo can always come over when he's ready.

So if Gallinari opts for Europe, that could mean that Augustin and Westbrook both slide up a slot putting the top 5 PG's in the draft into 1-11 for sure and loading up the 12-20 slots with the better BIGS. hmmmm
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Wouldn't surprise me if Gallinari stays in Europe. This is the dilema that the NBA will face more and more in the future. He will earn more playing in europe than he would if he was drafted in the 5-10 range. Good european players get bigger money in europe.

Nikola Pekovic is not doing any private workouts and is telling teams that he will stay in europe if drafted in the 1st round simply because of the money. Many scouts will say he is a 1st round pick on talent but if he gets picked in the mid to late 1st round, he gets peanuts compared to what he will get with the greek team. If he gets drafted in the 2nd round, at least he can negotiate to get a contract comparable to the one he is getting with Panathanaikos.
 
FakeInjury said:
Trade the pick! For a 1st rounder next year one next year. = two first rounders plus the potential to get three
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Unless it's to someone like Charlotte or Minnesota, then no. Because we'd probably end up in the same range as we are right now. But I may be a bit biased because its no secret that I really want us to get Westbrook
 
Other Players Staying in the Draft: Mario Chalmers (Kansas), J.J. Hickson (N.C. State), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis), Trent Plastied (BYU), Devon Jefferson (USC), George Hill (IUPUI), Michael Beasley (Kansas State), Derrick Rose (Memphis), Jerryd Bayless (Arizona), Brook Lopez (Stanford), Robin Lopez (Stanford), O.J. Mayo (USC), Russell Westbrook (UCLA), Anthony Randolph (LSU), Eric Gordon (Indiana), Kevin Love (UCLA), Darrell Arthur (Kansas), Donte Green (Syracuse), DeAndre Jordan (Texas), JaVale McGee (Nevada), Marreese Speights (Florida), Kosta Koufos (Ohio State), Brandon Rush (Kansas), Bill Walker (Kansas State), D.J. Augustin (Texas)

Other Players Going Back to School: Robert Vaden (UAB), Antonio Anderson (Memphis), Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Alonzo Gee (Alabama), Danny Green (North Carolina), Stefon Jackson (UTEP), Leo Lyons (Missouri), Jerel McNeal (Marquette), Josh Shipp (UCLA), Lee Cummard (BYU), Lorenzo Wade (San Diego State)
 
Kingster said:
That's EXTREMELY hard for me to believe.
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Same.. The three top players (Mayo/Beasley/Rose) are all similar in talent level but two of those three play positions that are hardest to fill with Mayo being left out. So It would be dumb for the Heat not to take Rose or Beasley (whichever is available)

Mayo should be #3 though....
 
Kingster said:
That's EXTREMELY hard for me to believe.
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OJ Mayo only worked out for two teams: the Knicks and the Heat! Plus Pat Riley is on record saying he likes OJ who has a game like Riley used to have at Kentucky and the Lakers. He hasn't said that about anyone else.
 
=LarryLegend= said:
Other Players Staying in the Draft: Mario Chalmers (Kansas), J.J. Hickson (N.C. State), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis), Trent Plastied (BYU), Devon Jefferson (USC), George Hill (IUPUI), Michael Beasley (Kansas State), Derrick Rose (Memphis), Jerryd Bayless (Arizona), Brook Lopez (Stanford), Robin Lopez (Stanford), O.J. Mayo (USC), Russell Westbrook (UCLA), Anthony Randolph (LSU), Eric Gordon (Indiana), Kevin Love (UCLA), Darrell Arthur (Kansas), Donte Green (Syracuse), DeAndre Jordan (Texas), JaVale McGee (Nevada), Marreese Speights (Florida), Kosta Koufos (Ohio State), Brandon Rush (Kansas), Bill Walker (Kansas State), D.J. Augustin (Texas)
Click to expand...

Other notables staying in the draft include 4 Euros: Alexis Ajinca (whose stock is really rising), Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum and Ante Tomic plus Gallinari (likely to end up in Milan in the Italian league tho').
 
Kings interested AGAIN in Roy Hibbert

Last year the Kings were prepared to take Hibbert until he unexpectedly pulled out of the draft, then had a mediocre senior year at Georgetown. His workout feedback now seems to say he could once again be a lottery pick. Sources (not identified on ESPN site) say the Kings are still very high on him. Odd since he is not a very athletic big man but is an excellent defensive center with shot blocking and moderate rebounding skills.

Personally, I like the press that the French "big" Alexis Ajinca is getting as he has dominated high-profile college guys in workouts. He is legit 7-1 with 7-8 wingspan, and Chad Ford/ESPN says he is very athletic, runs the floor well with a wide variety of skills (whatever THAT means.....but it IS Chad Ford!).

Hmmmm!!?? :confused:
 
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CruzDude said:
Last year the Kings were prepared to take Hibbert until he unexpectedly pulled out of the draft, then had a mediocre senior year at Georgetown. His workout feedback now seems to say he could once again be a lottery pick. Sources (not identified on ESPN site) say the Kings are still very high on him. Odd since he is not a very athletic big man but is an excellent defensive center with shot blocking and moderate rebounding skills.

Personally, I like the press that the French "big" Alexis Ajinca is getting as he has dominated high-profile college guys in workouts. He is legit 7-1 with 7-8 wingspan, and Chad Ford/ESPN says he is very athletic, runs the floor well with a wide variety of skills (whatever THAT means.....but it IS Chad Ford!).

Hmmmm!!?? :confused:
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Wow, that's disappointing about Hibbert because he's the guy I wanted last year up until he pulled out of the draft. I've been a big fan of his for a couple years and even though he had a disappointing season last year, I still think he's a good player who's being seriously underrated right now. Actually, there's a few guys currently projected to go in the 20's that I like a lot. Batum, Speights, Hibbert. If we could get another pick in the first round and nab one of those guys I'd be very happy. Especially if we got Westbrook or Augustin at #12.
 
hrdboild said:
Wow, that's disappointing about Hibbert because he's the guy I wanted last year up until he pulled out of the draft. I've been a big fan of his for a couple years and even though he had a disappointing season last year, I still think he's a good player who's being seriously underrated right now. Actually, there's a few guys currently projected to go in the 20's that I like a lot. Batum, Speights, Hibbert. If we could get another pick in the first round and nab one of those guys I'd be very happy. Especially if we got Westbrook or Augustin at #12.
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i really thiink thats the ideal situation for a kings fan .. somehow landing augustin or westbrook with our pick then grabbing a late first to nab speights/hibbert/ajinca/jordan or any other big that may fall
 
hrdboild said:
Wow, that's disappointing about Hibbert because he's the guy I wanted last year up until he pulled out of the draft. I've been a big fan of his for a couple years and even though he had a disappointing season last year, I still think he's a good player who's being seriously underrated right now. Actually, there's a few guys currently projected to go in the 20's that I like a lot. Batum, Speights, Hibbert. If we could get another pick in the first round and nab one of those guys I'd be very happy. Especially if we got Westbrook or Augustin at #12.
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Hibbert was exactly what we needed when we were contending: A big defensive presence at center to block and rebound. While I still wouldn't mind getting him, I can't see him being any better than a Greg Ostertag with a slightly better offensive/defensive game
 
Hibbert wouldn't be a bad pick but the Kings would be reaching at #12, if they could trade down he would probably fit in well. This guy isn't going to be a superstar but he is a very smart player with good court awareness. He is a very good passer for a big man and has a few decent post moves.

On defense he isn't a super athlete but he is definitely a presence. His projected numbers in NBA starters minutes would be about 9 rpg and 3.5 bpg, although with the lack of athleticism I would expect the blocks to drop a little.

The thing is that to fit in the Kings future he would either have to come off the bench or Spencer would have to move to PF and the Kings need to come out of this draft with starting talent.
 
Jerichoholic said:
...and the Kings need to come out of this draft with starting talent.
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Eventual "starting talent." I think most everyone acknowledges that only 4-5 players in this draft will or could start right away in the NBA. Sometimes there's mid-late first rounder or even a second round pick that surprises and starts immediately, but those are very lucky gems. At #12 the Kings hopefully get a talented player (not a bust!), an individual that might get decent backup minutes, but not likely a first year starter. Personally, I'd not hesitate to trade the pick (or trade down) and or let go of one of our second rounders if there was a deal out there that made sense to shore up obvious glaring weaknesses.
 
I agree with you, and Hibbert may indeed develop into starting talent, it's just whoever we draft needs to fit into what we are trying to build. Since Hawes is pretty much destined to be a starter and it is as a center then Hibbert just won't work.

I do think they should trade down though because they are in a tough spot with the #12, the high end talent will be gone by then and they can probably get just as good a pick lower in the round as they can at #12.
 
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