East vs. West WRT our KINGS this season

[KingsFanSince85]

I’ve seen some discussion on this forum, and several others, regarding the West not being as good as in the past and the East somehow being better.

My contention has been this all along. The East/West records against each other this season and the West being so tight is the result of massive injuries across the conference not anything to do with the East somehow bridging the gap that’s been present for quite a long time.

The vast majority of the top-tier players are in the West. And already were before KD and Kyrie were traded in recent months.

But before I deep dive into this, let’s be clear. The top 3 teams in the NBA this season might very well all reside in the East. The Bucks, Sixers and Celtics. With Giannis, Middleton, Embiid, Harden, Tatum, and Brown.

However it’s beyond those three teams and those 6 players where the East declines quickly.

The Cavs and Knicks are ok, but in a healthy West, they aren’t top 6 teams IMO. Probably not even top 8.

Out West the following needs to be heavily factored in:

• Steph Curry has missed 26 games and Klay has missed 12 for the Warriors
• LBJ has missed 23 games and AD 27 for the LA LeBrons
• KAT has missed 50 games for Minny
• PHX hasn’t had KD and lost Booker and CP3 for 20+ games each
• Zion has missed 40 games for the Pelicans
• Luka has missed 13 games for Dallas
• Kawhi missed 30 games for the Clips and PG has missed 17 games
• Ja Morant has missed 15 games for the Griz, with Adams, Jackson, and Clarke missing more than that
• SGA has missed 11 games for OKC

The above, along with there just being a lot of parity and stars spread out West to begin with, should explain why all these teams are compacted together.

Now, a valid argument can be brought to the table that our KINGS have benefitted from all the above. And they have. But they are still a very good team nonetheless that have just helped to make things even more compacted.

In a fully healthy West, perhaps the KINGS are sitting in 5th or 6th instead of 2nd. Who knows.

My only points are, beyond the top 3 the East isn’t deep and the West is much deeper and better than the records suggest. Prolonged absences to a plethora of upper-tier players have been the prime reason for it. Some of those players are already back and getting better and some will be coming back soon.

 

[hrdboild]

I'd agree with your general sentiment here. The relative parity in the West has been knocking everyone's records down a notch even accounting for all the big injuries. In general I think there are more strong teams in the West still, but I'm also glad we would only have to play 1 of those top 4 EC teams in the playoffs because trying to beat 2 of Milwaukee, Boston, Philly, or Cleveland in consecutive 7 game series would be a tall order.

On the flip side, GS, Phx, and Dallas all have depth issues, Denver has consistently disappointed in the post-season with this core group, and regarding Minnesota -- I'm hoping Mr. Slim will chime in with some more of that KAT related shade. It's really only Memphis and the Clippers that scare me at this point.

 

[Padrino]

What is a "fully healthy west"? I'm not sure such a phenomenon is currently possible. For me, the takeaway is that the west is built upon a really fragile foundation. I think the east is currently the stronger conference because it just doesn't have these kinds of perpetual age-and-injury concerns. It's not just that the western conference has suffered serious injuries across rosters this season; it's that too many teams have constructed themselves around stars whose availability is a serious question mark in the long-term.

Zion has yet to prove that his body type can survive his explosive style of play. KAT's long been made of glass. Father Time is finally catching up to Lebron and CP. Recent major injuries are slowing down the likes of KD, AD, Klay, and Steph Curry. Kawhi and PG are load-managed into oblivion. And Kyrie could at any moment decide to just retire from the NBA and pursue life as a monk.

I don't expect long-term health concerns for SGA, and I'd hope that Ja is sincere in his desire to curb his bad off-court habits. Luka's a bit concerning to me. He really needs to work on his conditioning or he's just going to be a guy who misses 10-20 every season because his body isn't honed for the rigors of an 82-game slate.

All of that said, I do think that too many in the media are quick to say, "Well, the Kings have been healthy and that's why they're outperforming expectations in an injury-ravaged west" without critically engaging with the notion that far too many "contenders" in this conference have been built around aging and/or fragile stars who simply cannot be counted on for availability. Health is a skill. Availability is essential.

Apart from younger talents like SGA and Booker and Ja and Fox, there aren't a whole lot of current stars in the west who I trust to stay on the court. Jokic and Sabonis also stand out as bigs who've been quite healthy throughout their careers thus far. But do the long-term projections for the likes of LAL, LAC, PHX, DAL, GS, and NO actually figure to improve from here on out, based on the age and injury concerns associated with their best players? I'm not inclined to think so.

 

[hrdboild]

What is a "fully healthy west"? I'm not sure such a phenomenon is currently possible. For me, the takeaway is that the west is built upon a really fragile foundation. It's not just that the conference has suffered serious injuries across rosters this season; it's that too many teams have constructed themselves around stars whose availability is a serious question mark in the long-term.

Zion has yet to prove that his body type can survive his explosive style of play. KAT's long been made of glass. Father Time is finally catching up to Lebron and CP. Recent major injuries are slowing down the likes of KD, AD, Klay, and Steph Curry. Kawhi and PG are load-managed into oblivion. And Kyrie could at any moment decide to just retire from the NBA and pursue life as a monk.

I don't expect long-term health concerns for SGA, and I'd hope that Ja is sincere in his desire to curb his bad off-court habits. Luka's a bit concerning to me. He really needs to work on his conditioning or he's just going to be a guy who misses 10-20 every season because his body isn't honed for the rigors of an 82-game slate.

All of that said, I do think that too many in the media are quick to say, "Well, the Kings have been healthy and that's why they're outperforming expectations in an injury-ravaged west" without critically engaging with the notion that far too many "contenders" in this conference have been built around aging and/or fragile stars who simply cannot be counted on for availability. Health is a skill. Availability is essential.

Apart from younger talents like SGA and Booker and Ja and Fox, there aren't a whole lot of current stars in the west who I trust to stay on the court. Jokic and Sabonis also stand out as bigs who've been quite healthy throughout their careers thus far. But do the long-term projections for the likes of LAL, LAC, PHX, DAL, GS, and NO actually figure to improve from here on out, based on the age and injury concerns associated with their best players? I'm not inclined to think so.

Well stated as always! Going all-in on star-centered teams who need 2 or 3 guys to carry the load every night was a choice these teams made and being unable to weather the rigors of the regular season is a byproduct of that choice. Maybe it will pay off in the post-season if these superstars all put up 50+ point games but there's a lot to be said for learning good habits along the way and riding the same wave you've been on all season instead of waiting until mid-April to ramp up from 0 to 100. We shall see!

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Kings have been "healthy" because their players are playing through injury in this day and age of "load management".

 

[KingsFanSince85]

What is a "fully healthy west"? I'm not sure such a phenomenon is currently possible. For me, the takeaway is that the west is built upon a really fragile foundation. I think the east is currently the stronger conference because it just doesn't have these kinds of perpetual age-and-injury concerns.

What I meant by a fully healthy West is simply not the enigma of so many stars missing 20+ games.

Your point about some being aging stars and some being perpetually made of glass is certainly valid. But that only explains away some of it.

Still, I circle back to two things nobody has disputed or defeated.

One, beyond the big three of MIL, PHI and BOS — who else is great or would be a top 6-8 in the West when the mass of injuries are a bit less in significance?

Two, most the top tier talent resides in the West. If you discount the top three of MIL, PHI, and BOS and also the ”aging” stars such as LBJ and CP3. Who does the East have that considered a true star?

Donovan Mitchell. Jimmy Butler? Trae Young (who I don’t consider a star)? Who else?

Meanwhile the West has Dame, Steph, Klay, AD, Kawhi, PG, Booker, KD, Jokic, #77, Kyrie, Ja, SGA, and while some may disagree, I’d add one or both of Domas and Swipa to that list.

Even if you add KD and Kyrie back over to the East where they started the season, it still isn’t close.

Then if you form a list of next tier players, the East doesn’t have an advantage there either.

In the East you’re looking at the likes of Mikal Bridges, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Siakam, VanVleet, DeRozan, Lavine, Garland, Haliburton, LaMelo, Bam, Paolo, Dejounte Murray, Porzingus and Beale.

In the West you’ve got Fox and/or Sabonis (if you don’t include them in the first group) Wiggins, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, KAT, Gobert, Edwards, Markkanen, Ayton, JJJ, Bane, McCollum, Zion, Ingram, Jalen Green, and Deangelo Russell.

In the end the East just doesn’t have the same amount of talent as the West. If you look over the larger sample size of the past decade or more, the numbers bear that out. The tide isn’t going to shift in one season, especially considering the trade deadline still brought the bigger names out West.

The difference this season from past seasons ARE the prolonged injuries. AND the West getting deeper, with the KINGS recent ascent being an example of this.

Sans HOU and SA, there are no easy games in the West.

In the East, it’s the top 3 and everyone else being not that good. You can make a case for Cleveland and New York, but even then, beyond those 5 it’s pretty weak.

You take the #5, #6 and #7 teams from West — Clippers, Mavs and Warriors — and even with the injuries they’d be in much better shape playing out East.

 

[mrlaze]

Kings can beat any team in the league.

Kings are in 2nd place in the west.

Injuries and load managment arent something they control. If teams think they can hide a star away in the regular season games and bring them out in the playoffs for an easy win vs the Kings theyve got another thing coming.

 

[NewArena]

Kings have been "healthy" because their players are playing through injury in this day and age of "load management".

Boom. The OP makes a lot of great points and i agree with many of them. I'd also like to add, if we weren't legit - we wouldn't be winning all of these games, regardless of who's healthy and who isn't. This isn't the first time the West has been riddled with injuries throughout.

 

[Warhawk]

It's not just that the western conference has suffered serious injuries across rosters this season; it's that too many teams have constructed themselves around stars whose availability is a serious question mark in the long-term.

All of that said, I do think that too many in the media are quick to say, "Well, the Kings have been healthy and that's why they're outperforming expectations in an injury-ravaged west" without critically engaging with the notion that far too many "contenders" in this conference have been built around aging and/or fragile stars who simply cannot be counted on for availability. Health is a skill. Availability is essential.

Well said. I think a lot of us had the same thoughts at the time of the KD trade, for example, but you put it very succinctly.

 

[kingsboi]

I believe the eventual NBA champion will come out of the Eastern conference. I look at the West and you have aging stars who have had their run and it's time to pass the gauntlet down to the upcomers. Steph, AD, Bron, Dame, KD, CP3 all have lots of tread on their legs. Meanwhile in the East, I think the top 3 or 4 teams are structurally built better but I still don't trust Philly in the Playoffs until they prove otherwise.

 

[Jc121]

when teams makes some dumb comments like I hope we draw the kings. If those teams didn’t suck all year well?

 

[Kingz19]

East is better this season. Good for them. It only took them 25 years of being the lEast

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Boom. The OP makes a lot of great points and i agree with many of them. I'd also like to add, if we weren't legit - we wouldn't be winning all of these games, regardless of who's healthy and who isn't. This isn't the first time the West has been riddled with injuries throughout.

We are legit. Please don’t mistake the point of my post.

I’m just tired of hearing the flawed take that the East somehow bridged the talent gap over one season. It’s far from the truth.

The KINGS play in the much deeper, more talented conference, which is only “down” due to numerous long term injuries spanning multiple teams.

But even w/o those injuries, the West is a meat grinder from 1-13. And especially from 1-8

It ain’t that way out East.

That said, the East might have the 3 top teams overall, especially with Denver slipping.

 

[Telemachus]

I believe the Kings are 16-13 against the East so far.

 

[kingsfan101]

What is a "fully healthy west"? I'm not sure such a phenomenon is currently possible. For me, the takeaway is that the west is built upon a really fragile foundation. I think the east is currently the stronger conference because it just doesn't have these kinds of perpetual age-and-injury concerns. It's not just that the western conference has suffered serious injuries across rosters this season; it's that too many teams have constructed themselves around stars whose availability is a serious question mark in the long-term.

Zion has yet to prove that his body type can survive his explosive style of play. KAT's long been made of glass. Father Time is finally catching up to Lebron and CP. Recent major injuries are slowing down the likes of KD, AD, Klay, and Steph Curry. Kawhi and PG are load-managed into oblivion. And Kyrie could at any moment decide to just retire from the NBA and pursue life as a monk.

I don't expect long-term health concerns for SGA, and I'd hope that Ja is sincere in his desire to curb his bad off-court habits. Luka's a bit concerning to me. He really needs to work on his conditioning or he's just going to be a guy who misses 10-20 every season because his body isn't honed for the rigors of an 82-game slate.

All of that said, I do think that too many in the media are quick to say, "Well, the Kings have been healthy and that's why they're outperforming expectations in an injury-ravaged west" without critically engaging with the notion that far too many "contenders" in this conference have been built around aging and/or fragile stars who simply cannot be counted on for availability. Health is a skill. Availability is essential.

Apart from younger talents like SGA and Booker and Ja and Fox, there aren't a whole lot of current stars in the west who I trust to stay on the court. Jokic and Sabonis also stand out as bigs who've been quite healthy throughout their careers thus far. But do the long-term projections for the likes of LAL, LAC, PHX, DAL, GS, and NO actually figure to improve from here on out, based on the age and injury concerns associated with their best players? I'm not inclined to think so.

I've been saying the same thing for some time, but you said it much better

Among the teams you have listed, in the past, LAL would have scared me in particular for its ability to rebuild quickly despite seemingly being in a corner, but I think the magic is wearing off. Plus, they have boxed themselves in such a corner with high priced ageing stars who miss significant time (they have 87M tied to Bron and Davis next year, and 93M in 24-25), and traded away all future assets. They can still be a threat if fully healthy for the post season, but no guarantee they will get there.

GS is the other team that can be a threat. They are the defending champions, which they won without Klay. They have a horrible road record, but still should make the PO. Who knows how they will look like once everyone is healthy and Wiggins is back. Let's see. That said, going forward, their path won't be easy. Most of their stars are signed long term, and are ageing. The ownership has been paying huge amounts of luxury tax. That's acceptable when the team is winning championships. If the slip becomes permanent, they might be forced to cut.

Dallas and Suns will be dangerous. Kyrie is extremely unpredictable, but also super talented. If Doncic and he can figure out how to play together, they can still be great, and certainly a threat. Same with Suns. They still have Booker and Ayton, who can form a strong young core. If Durant/Paul can stay healthy enough, they have the talent to win it all.

Among the teams struggling a bit this year, I'm scared of Utah and OKC, latter in particular. They already have a decent core, a budding superstar, a potential game changer in Chet, and slew of picks in near future. If they hit on even couple of them, they can be scary good.

But, well, so will we

 

[kingsfan101]

What I meant by a fully healthy West is simply not the enigma of so many stars missing 20+ games.

Your point about some being aging stars and some being perpetually made of glass is certainly valid. But that only explains away some of it.

Still, I circle back to two things nobody has disputed or defeated.

One, beyond the big three of MIL, PHI and BOS — who else is great or would be a top 6-8 in the West when the mass of injuries are a bit less in significance?

Two, most the top tier talent resides in the West. If you discount the top three of MIL, PHI, and BOS and also the ”aging” stars such as LBJ and CP3. Who does the East have that considered a true star?

Donovan Mitchell. Jimmy Butler? Trae Young (who I don’t consider a star)? Who else?

Meanwhile the West has Dame, Steph, Klay, AD, Kawhi, PG, Booker, KD, Jokic, #77, Kyrie, Ja, SGA, and while some may disagree, I’d add one or both of Domas and Swipa to that list.

Even if you add KD and Kyrie back over to the East where they started the season, it still isn’t close.

Then if you form a list of next tier players, the East doesn’t have an advantage there either.

In the East you’re looking at the likes of Mikal Bridges, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Siakam, VanVleet, DeRozan, Lavine, Garland, Haliburton, LaMelo, Bam, Paolo, Dejounte Murray, Porzingus and Beale.

In the West you’ve got Fox and/or Sabonis (if you don’t include them in the first group) Wiggins, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, KAT, Gobert, Edwards, Markkanen, Ayton, JJJ, Bane, McCollum, Zion, Ingram, Jalen Green, and Deangelo Russell.

In the end the East just doesn’t have the same amount of talent as the West. If you look over the larger sample size of the past decade or more, the numbers bear that out. The tide isn’t going to shift in one season, especially considering the trade deadline still brought the bigger names out West.

The difference this season from past seasons ARE the prolonged injuries. AND the West getting deeper, with the KINGS recent ascent being an example of this.

Sans HOU and SA, there are no easy games in the West.

In the East, it’s the top 3 and everyone else being not that good. You can make a case for Cleveland and New York, but even then, beyond those 5 it’s pretty weak.

You take the #5, #6 and #7 teams from West — Clippers, Mavs and Warriors — and even with the injuries they’d be in much better shape playing out East.

No one has disputed or defeated them, because they agree with them

Oh, I know I can't speak for everyone, but personally, I do agree with a lot of what you have said. Just that, injuries to players in the west can't be looked as one-offs. There can always be freak injuries, but some of the stars in the west have either shown to be more injury prone through their young careers, or have lot of miles on them. So, the story might be same over the next few years.

 

[206Fan]

I've already kinda made my points in the other thread, but I think they're equal at full strength. However, I don't feel like you're giving enough credits to some of those play-in teams on the East. Here's the list of the teams standing from 7th through 12th along with their stars/best players.

7. Miami: BAM, Butler, Herro, and Lowry
8. Atlanta: Trae, Murray, Hunter, and Collins/Capela/Bogi
9. Toronto: Siakam, VanVleet, OG, and Scottie
10. Chicago: DeMar, LaVine, and Vucevic
11. Indiana: Haliburton and Turner
12. Washington: Beal, Porzingis, and Kuzma

These are all pretty respectable teams that are comparable to the West's 7-12.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

No one has disputed or defeated them, because they agree with them

Oh, I know I can't speak for everyone, but personally, I do agree with a lot of what you have said. Just that, injuries to players in the west can't be looked as one-offs. There can always be freak injuries, but some of the stars in the west have either shown to be more injury prone through their young careers, or have lot of miles on them. So, the story might be same over the next few years.

Well, I definitely have been downplaying the LAL the past 4 years because both those dudes are always injured. And quite frankly not that great anymore.

Still, despite the rash of injuries, the West is still deeper and better than the East on the whole.

Hopefully our KINGS can find a way to compete and not only beat the likes of DEN, MEM, and PHX but those 3 pillars out East should we be fortunate enough to face one of them in June.

 

[funkykingston]

I've been saying the same thing for some time, but you said it much better

Among the teams you have listed, in the past, LAL would have scared me in particular for its ability to rebuild quickly despite seemingly being in a corner, but I think the magic is wearing off. Plus, they have boxed themselves in such a corner with high priced ageing stars who miss significant time (they have 87M tied to Bron and Davis next year, and 93M in 24-25), and traded away all future assets. They can still be a threat if fully healthy for the post season, but no guarantee they will get there.

GS is the other team that can be a threat. They are the defending champions, which they won without Klay. They have a horrible road record, but still should make the PO. Who knows how they will look like once everyone is healthy and Wiggins is back. Let's see. That said, going forward, their path won't be easy. Most of their stars are signed long term, and are ageing. The ownership has been paying huge amounts of luxury tax. That's acceptable when the team is winning championships. If the slip becomes permanent, they might be forced to cut.

Dallas and Suns will be dangerous. Kyrie is extremely unpredictable, but also super talented. If Doncic and he can figure out how to play together, they can still be great, and certainly a threat. Same with Suns. They still have Booker and Ayton, who can form a strong young core. If Durant/Paul can stay healthy enough, they have the talent to win it all.

Among the teams struggling a bit this year, I'm scared of Utah and OKC, latter in particular. They already have a decent core, a budding superstar, a potential game changer in Chet, and slew of picks in near future. If they hit on even couple of them, they can be scary good.

But, well, so will we

Here's how I see all of those teams:

Golden State

I can't count the Warriors out based on what they were able to do last season, but they sure don't look like a championship team this year. The road woes, the decline on defense, the young guys not stepping up to help the Curry/Thompson/Green core - all of that has hurt them this season. And now with Wiggins gone from the team for an extended period and Draymond poised to lose a game for every tech down the stretch, they are boxed in even more.

The Warriors also have some big decisions looming. Draymond can opt out this season. Do they give him another long term, big money deal at age 33? What do they do with Thompson after his deal ends next season? The Warriors injuries meant that they had the lottery picks to build their next team while keeping this team's championship window open. But instead Wiseman is already off the team, Moody is playing 13 mpg, and Kuminga still hasn't shown any signs of consistency. Unless some major roster changes happen and they can keep Klay & Steph healthy, I don't see them being serious contenders much longer, if they even are now.

Dallas

Dallas has gone 7-9 since trading for Kyrie. Obviously that's in part because Luka has missed the last 4 games (where they went 2-2) and was dealing with the injury for several games prior. But when I watched them play together it didn't seem like an ideal pairing. They weren't running the pick & roll together - it was more of a "my turn, your turn" type thing and in general not the type of elite offense I was expecting. And of course, they're still poor on the other end of the floor. If Irving leaves a free agent then the Mavs paid a hefty price for a rental that didn't really elevate them this season. But even if he stays, Dallas needs to do more to improve their roster. Given that they cut his minutes until they had to play him due to injuries, I don't know that Christian Wood will be back for them next season either.

Phoenix

If the Suns get healthy, they are a championship team. Just seeing the three games Durant played, it was a seamless fit and makes an already good team great. Can they keep CP3 and KD in uniform through the postseason? That's the big question. If they can, I would expect to see them in the finals. If they can't (and I think Durant is more important to their title hopes than Paul) then they are in trouble. Because after the trade deadline deal, they don't have much quality depth.

LA Clippers

The Clippers are still dangerous, especially in the playoffs with the added rest and Kawhi able to play every game. I don't think Westbrook helps them, especially when it means Terance Mann gets fewer minutes, but Plumlee and Gordon (and to a lesser extent Hyland) were good pickups for them. They are a legit threat to come out of the West for sure.

They're also poised to be way into the luxury tax next season with most of their roster under contract other than Plumlee and Westbrook. Gordon's deal isn't guaranteed for next season so I wouldn't be surprised to see them let him go as just a rental for this season. But if they can't get over the hump this year, there aren't many avenues for them to improve going forward.

LA Lakers

The Lakers might be able to flip a switch in the playoffs, but they've basically been a .500 team when LeBron and AD both play, so both of those two would need to elevate their games and get more out of their trade deadline additions. It's certainly possible, but first they have to make the play in. LeBron is an absolute marvel, but he'll turn 39 in the early part of next season and has a LOT of mileage on him. It's LA, so I wouldn't be surprised if they sign another star FA to pair with Davis in a couple seasons, but I think this version of the Lakers is close to being done.

Oklahoma City

OKC is a REALLY interesting team. SGA is putting up near MVP numbers and Giddey has been playing fantastic lately, averaging 17 ppg, 8.6 rpg and 8 apg in his last 10. And of course Jalen Williams looks like an absolute steal right now. If Holmgren can stay healthy they'll have a great collection of young talent. But they'll also need to start making some tough decisions just because they have SO many young guys. But if they can figure it all out, they can be very good for a very long time.

And that's without even mentioning the Nuggets and the Grizzlies. Denver looked like championship contenders early in the season but are really slumping at the wrong time now. Still, they have a very good halfcourt offense, the reigning MVP and Aaron Gordon's biggest value has been to be a big athletic body to throw at guys like LeBron and Kawhi in the postseason. Memphis is another team that's probably built more for the postseason than the regular season with their defense. The playoffs in the West are going to be really interesting this year.

I hope the Kings make it out of the first round, but honestly, just having a winning team that is so much fun to watch has been amazing in and of itself.