Marvin Bagley III
- Thread starter jcassio
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Carter can post up, shoot from 3, shoot free throws, rebound, defend and pass as well or better than any big man in this draft. For a center, I can't think of anything that he does that's below average. Almost everything he does is above average. He just isn't elite at any one thing.
Bagley is a better rebounder, athlete and leaper. He's also better at finding space on the floor to be in position to receive the ball and put it right up for a high percentage shot. He's an equal 3 point shooter but his free throw stroke isn't nearly as good as Carter's. He's also not nearly the defender Carter is. Higher ceiling but lower floor. Bagley could be a home run or a strike out but Carter is a ground rule double all day long.
Bagley is a better rebounder, athlete and leaper. He's also better at finding space on the floor to be in position to receive the ball and put it right up for a high percentage shot. He's an equal 3 point shooter but his free throw stroke isn't nearly as good as Carter's. He's also not nearly the defender Carter is. Higher ceiling but lower floor. Bagley could be a home run or a strike out but Carter is a ground rule double all day long.
Maybe. But I watched Al Horford often being Boston's best player as they made a surprise run at winning the East this postseason.
What Carter Jr gives a team is a guy who can be a modern NBA center. He protects the rim, he rebounds, he passes very well for a big, and he has a fully formed outside shot. He doesn't have good lateral quickness or vertical explosion so he's not a highlight machine but I'd be surprised if he didn't have a very solid career.
Bagley is on another plane from WCJ athletically but he's also stuck between positions and is a much more raw player who has nevertheless always dominated due to his physical gifts and nascent talent.
I think Carter has a very easy fit and adjustment to the NBA even if he doesn't have the highest ceiling. Bagley is going to need a lot of development to reach his peak, primarily with his outside shot. His FT% and 3P% when there was a defender within 5 feet of him are troubling signposts for his future shooting ability. He DID shoot pretty well on wide open threes so I think it's a matter of him rushing his shot when guarded. If so, that's a fixable issue though his misses were also troubling as he sprayed them left, right, long & short and often missed badly.
I like Bagley and I don't see him busting because his rebounding will translate, but I'll be interested to see how he does his rookie year. It may be the case (as it's been the case since he was in 7th grade) that he just looks like one of the best, if not THE best players, when he steps on the court. Or it may be that there's a big adjustment for him in being able to overpower and outwork everyone to having to develop a more perimeter based game to unlock his potential.
We'll see.
What Carter Jr gives a team is a guy who can be a modern NBA center. He protects the rim, he rebounds, he passes very well for a big, and he has a fully formed outside shot. He doesn't have good lateral quickness or vertical explosion so he's not a highlight machine but I'd be surprised if he didn't have a very solid career.
Bagley is on another plane from WCJ athletically but he's also stuck between positions and is a much more raw player who has nevertheless always dominated due to his physical gifts and nascent talent.
I think Carter has a very easy fit and adjustment to the NBA even if he doesn't have the highest ceiling. Bagley is going to need a lot of development to reach his peak, primarily with his outside shot. His FT% and 3P% when there was a defender within 5 feet of him are troubling signposts for his future shooting ability. He DID shoot pretty well on wide open threes so I think it's a matter of him rushing his shot when guarded. If so, that's a fixable issue though his misses were also troubling as he sprayed them left, right, long & short and often missed badly.
I like Bagley and I don't see him busting because his rebounding will translate, but I'll be interested to see how he does his rookie year. It may be the case (as it's been the case since he was in 7th grade) that he just looks like one of the best, if not THE best players, when he steps on the court. Or it may be that there's a big adjustment for him in being able to overpower and outwork everyone to having to develop a more perimeter based game to unlock his potential.
We'll see.
Actually Carter is the better rebounder. Marvin averages more raw rebounds per game because he plays more minutes. On a per possession basis and TRB % Carter is the superior rebounder. And in case you're wondering, yes, I have Carter above Bagley precisely because of his defense and the fact that he's currently better as a shooter and I believe projects better as a shooter.
Carter reminds me of Al Horford.. Perhaps not as athletic as a young Horford, but Carter is a better rebounder and shooter than young Horford.
Carter reminds me of Al Horford.. Perhaps not as athletic as a young Horford, but Carter is a better rebounder and shooter than young Horford.
I have Bagley over Carter on my board (alltough I havent focused a lot on Carter so I dont have much to say about him other than relatively low upside) but I wouldnt want neither of them. But as my post stated, I wast talking about defensive instincts. I didnt compare them as prospects, only their defensive instincts.
Yeah his rebounding % is slightly better but I deem Bagley to be the superior rebounder because of the reason roasthawg stated. It's not by a wide margin or anything but I think he's a bit better than Carter at it if they went head to head.
I agree with the Horford comparison and that's why I have him 3rd on my board.
I agree with the Horford comparison and that's why I have him 3rd on my board.
You and I just have to agree to disagree on Carter. I think he has the greatest bust potential, and I mean bust, as in being out of the league in four or five years, of any of the consensus top 10 picks. Too many times I saw him flat footed and earthbound while college kids were skying over him. I just don't think that translates well into the NBA. I don't see as others do that he's another Horford. Also, I heard an interview where he said he had to work on his confidence, that if he misses a shot he can't lose confidence. If he's in college and he needs more confidence, he's going to be very challenged in the NBA in that regard. He seems like a great kid, a character guy, a hard worker, but I just think he's going to struggle because of his physical limitations.
On Bagley, the first I saw him I said to myself: This kid is an absolute no brainer; just pick him, Kings, and be done with it. (That's exactly what I put on this board at the time). I still feel that way. I don't see the risk in Bagley of a strike out/aka bust that I do with Carter. You just don't see guys like Bagley with the fluidity, quickness, balance, coordination, speed, super quick and high jumping ability, and motor every day. He's a very rare commodity, imo. I think his getting stronger and improving his handles are givens. To me, the determining factor in how good he becomes will be his outside shooting improvement. (I'd say shooting improvement is the hardest thing of all to predict one way or another, and would say that for any player in this draft). He's a big time competitor, has the fire, the determination to get better, and the character. He also has the confidence. He wanted the ball in his hands in the closing minutes of big games and wasn't afraid to take big shots. You add those characteristics to mega talent and it may not be a guarantee of great success, but the ingredients are there for great success, and when you're picking 19 year old's that's about as good as you can ask for.
On Bagley, the first I saw him I said to myself: This kid is an absolute no brainer; just pick him, Kings, and be done with it. (That's exactly what I put on this board at the time). I still feel that way. I don't see the risk in Bagley of a strike out/aka bust that I do with Carter. You just don't see guys like Bagley with the fluidity, quickness, balance, coordination, speed, super quick and high jumping ability, and motor every day. He's a very rare commodity, imo. I think his getting stronger and improving his handles are givens. To me, the determining factor in how good he becomes will be his outside shooting improvement. (I'd say shooting improvement is the hardest thing of all to predict one way or another, and would say that for any player in this draft). He's a big time competitor, has the fire, the determination to get better, and the character. He also has the confidence. He wanted the ball in his hands in the closing minutes of big games and wasn't afraid to take big shots. You add those characteristics to mega talent and it may not be a guarantee of great success, but the ingredients are there for great success, and when you're picking 19 year old's that's about as good as you can ask for.
I always like players with something unique to their game. I think Bagley has one - his ability to pogo is like nothing I've seen before. His speed and agility are elite as well for his size. My biggest question about him on offense would be he has a college feel to his game when he slashes - awkward shots below the rim - that he'll need to adjust if he will be successful in the NBA. I can see him getting bullied on defense, but he is young so would give him a 2-3 year pass on that to get stronger.
There are fans (and use the word fans to include those on blogs like the Ringer) who say Bagley has "highest bust potential". Excuse me, what are you looking at?! I think Bagley is an extremely low risk pick. Bagley can get 10 PPG and 6 RPG in 15 MPG without any plays being run for him on athleticism and instincts. This is baseline productivity. He is likely to produce much more. Where the mistake occurs is when you conclude he is a center, declare he cannot defend centers, he will not be able to stay on the floor against centers, period, end of story, bust. He's not a conventional center, he's more a combo forward who you put in pick and roll, will run constantly, attack the boards and pick his spots from perimeter. He needs to work on his handles, right hand and strength. This will all come with time and dedication, then watch out.
There have been numerous well argumented posts about the value of players like Bagley in this thread. Try to argue one of those instead of making up an argument and arguing against it.
One shooter + ? on the floor isnt a recipe for an efficent offense. Lineups with three non shooters are very rare in todays leage and for a reason
One shooter + ? on the floor isnt a recipe for an efficent offense. Lineups with three non shooters are very rare in todays leage and for a reason
If you don't think Bagley has bust potential, you're kidding yourself.
IF he doesn't add to his game, you have a big who can't be relied upon as a defender or shooter, and in today's game that dude isn't getting off of the bench, much less being worth a #2 pick.
But if he does figure out defense, and adds shooting to his game, then we got ourselves a crazy good impact player.
Picking Bagley would be a gamble, much like picking Fox was a gamble. Both players have MAJOR holes in their games. But they are both (by all accounts) hard workers who love the game and have sky high potential.
I'm a Luka guy, but if we get Bagley I wont be mad.
IF he doesn't add to his game, you have a big who can't be relied upon as a defender or shooter, and in today's game that dude isn't getting off of the bench, much less being worth a #2 pick.
But if he does figure out defense, and adds shooting to his game, then we got ourselves a crazy good impact player.
Picking Bagley would be a gamble, much like picking Fox was a gamble. Both players have MAJOR holes in their games. But they are both (by all accounts) hard workers who love the game and have sky high potential.
I'm a Luka guy, but if we get Bagley I wont be mad.
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