Marvin Bagley III

[Blob]

Back to the Duke-NC game I recorded. It is amazing how many times Bagley was the first one down the floor on fast breaks, only to end up being guarded by a point guard (if that) and the Duke guards didn't get him the ball. Bagley just kept running and running and running, despite the fact the Duke guards had either the inability or the incapability to get him the ball. I don't think that's going to be happening with Fox, Bogs, and Giles on the floor.

This is a similar point I made weeks ago when Bagley changes ends if nothing else he forces the first or second transition defender to collapse into the paint. This leaves secondary fast break guys on the wings and trailers open. Contrast this to a slacker like Willie who almost never is the first man out in transition. Buddy is also very good changing ends along with Fox and Bagley. We would not create this dynamic with Luka because he lacks superior leg speed. All this is obvious and why I was forecasting Bagley as the #2 pick the night of the lottery and have never deviated.

 

[Telemachus]

You wanted to talk about wingspan. I'm talking wingspan. And I'm offering examples of wingspan. And of the non-importance of wingspan as a be all end all of characteristics. Try to learn how to understand. Wingspan is one element in rebounding, blocking shots and defending. And if you are able to jump very high very quickly and have above average mobility and an incredible motor it is reduced in importance in the overall picture.

There are a lot of things that can help a player be good defensively. The most important ones are effort and desire. With those 2 traits, any player can at the very least be an average defensive player. How many of the other qualities they have will determine how much better than average they can become. As far as wingspan is concerned, it only starts to be a detriment when it is below average. Even then, that doesn't stop you from playing solid defense b it simply limits some steals and blocked shots.

Chris Paul is arguably one of the best defensive PGs over the past 10 years. He is undersized with an average wingspan and slightly above average athleticism. Some would call him an outlier as a result. However, John Stockton was an undersized PG with average athleticism and wingspan who also was an excellent defensive player (also the NBA's all time steals leader).

 

[roasthawg]

You wanted to talk about wingspan. I'm talking wingspan. And I'm offering examples of wingspan. And of the non-importance of wingspan as a be all end all of characteristics. Try to learn how to understand. Wingspan is one element in rebounding, blocking shots and defending. And if you are able to jump very high very quickly and have above average mobility and an incredible motor it is reduced in importance in the overall picture.

I get what you're saying but at the end of the day Bagley didn't block hardly any shots in spite of his athleticism. Wingspan is probably a big part of the issue there.

 

[Kingster]

I get what you're saying but at the end of the day Bagley didn't block hardly any shots in spite of his athleticism. Wingspan is probably a big part of the issue there.

Fair enough. He's not a great shot blocker. Frankly, if he were in addition to all his other characteristics we wouldn't be having this discussion because the Suns would be picking him.

 

[roasthawg]

Fair enough. He's not a great shot blocker. Frankly, if he were in addition to all his other characteristics we wouldn't be having this discussion because the Suns would be picking him.

Exactly. We're looking at a Blake Griffen type of player rather than an ad. I'm fine with Bagley at #2 since it looks like JJJ and Bamba are out of contention.

 

[ESP47]

This is a similar point I made weeks ago when Bagley changes ends if nothing else he forces the first or second transition defender to collapse into the paint. This leaves secondary fast break guys on the wings and trailers open. Contrast this to a slacker like Willie who almost never is the first man out in transition. Buddy is also very good changing ends along with Fox and Bagley. We would not create this dynamic with Luka because he lacks superior leg speed. All this is obvious and why I was forecasting Bagley as the #2 pick the night of the lottery and have never deviated.

Luka is really good in transition. I think it's his 2nd best attribute next to his PnR play.

Transition skills are at the bottom of my list when it comes to skills I want to see out of a basketball player. Fox has great end to end speed but you only see it about once a game. That elite skill nets him 2 points a game. Meanwhile he was next to worthless in the half court.

Dreaming about a bunch of up and down the court transition points to improve the team will wind up being a losing proposition. The overwhelming majority of points are scored in the half court and if that's not the bread and butter if your top players, then you aren't winning basketball games. Defenses are too adept to stopping transition points to make it a worthwhile skill to draft a guy on.

There are a lot of things that can help a player be good defensively. The most important ones are effort and desire. With those 2 traits, any player can at the very least be an average defensive player. How many of the other qualities they have will determine how much better than average they can become. As far as wingspan is concerned, it only starts to be a detriment when it is below average. Even then, that doesn't stop you from playing solid defense b it simply limits some steals and blocked shots.

Chris Paul is arguably one of the best defensive PGs over the past 10 years. He is undersized with an average wingspan and slightly above average athleticism. Some would call him an outlier as a result. However, John Stockton was an undersized PG with average athleticism and wingspan who also was an excellent defensive player (also the NBA's all time steals leader).

Wingspan means a lot more to a big man than it does a guard. That big man is supposed to be the last line of defense if the guard can't stay in front of his man. If Bagley plays the 5, it's going to be a layup drill for opposing offenses. The longer wingspan not only blocks and alters shots, but it allows the player to defend without putting themselves in a position to foul. Bagley will be forced to use his leaping ability to block shots and that's going to put opposing offenses on the free throw line quite a bit. Now if Bagley plays the 4, you have to match him up with the perfect 5 or else you're going to give up something on the offensive end and/or the defensive end. I don't like players that need to play next to a specific type of player in order to be successful. It's a difficult way to build a team.

One thing I like about Bagley is that he seems like the kind of guy who is going to put in the work. I'll take a guy who doesn't know how to play defense over a guy who can play defense but chooses not to. You can teach an eager player the skills to play D but you can't force someone to do it who doesn't want to. By all accounts, Bagley is a nice mixture of skill and bring your lunch pail to work kind of guy. Which is why I like him as the 2nd choice to Doncic. If he can't play defense it won't be for lack of trying and that's something I can't really complain about. He's not going to be lazy or disinterested in the game but it is very worrisome that his defensive awareness is the absolute polar opposite of his offensive awareness.

 

[ppine]

Look at this way. The Kings have some good guards, Bogdan, Fox and Hield. How far are you going to get with Skal and Willie? The Kings need a big man with a big motor that can rebound and provide offense. Bagley is the obvious choice.

Did you see the line for Donic in the championship game? 8 points and some assists. Big deal. It will get harder in the NBA.

 

[Kingster]

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/20/draft-rumors-news-updates-reports-Luka-Doncic-Hawks

Latest from SI. Looks like Bagley

 

[Telemachus]

Luka is really good in transition. I think it's his 2nd best attribute next to his PnR play.

Transition skills are at the bottom of my list when it comes to skills I want to see out of a basketball player. Fox has great end to end speed but you only see it about once a game. That elite skill nets him 2 points a game. Meanwhile he was next to worthless in the half court.

Dreaming about a bunch of up and down the court transition points to improve the team will wind up being a losing proposition. The overwhelming majority of points are scored in the half court and if that's not the bread and butter if your top players, then you aren't winning basketball games. Defenses are too adept to stopping transition points to make it a worthwhile skill to draft a guy on.



Wingspan means a lot more to a big man than it does a guard. That big man is supposed to be the last line of defense if the guard can't stay in front of his man. If Bagley plays the 5, it's going to be a layup drill for opposing offenses. The longer wingspan not only blocks and alters shots, but it allows the player to defend without putting themselves in a position to foul. Bagley will be forced to use his leaping ability to block shots and that's going to put opposing offenses on the free throw line quite a bit. Now if Bagley plays the 4, you have to match him up with the perfect 5 or else you're going to give up something on the offensive end and/or the defensive end. I don't like players that need to play next to a specific type of player in order to be successful. It's a difficult way to build a team.

One thing I like about Bagley is that he seems like the kind of guy who is going to put in the work. I'll take a guy who doesn't know how to play defense over a guy who can play defense but chooses not to. You can teach an eager player the skills to play D but you can't force someone to do it who doesn't want to. By all accounts, Bagley is a nice mixture of skill and bring your lunch pail to work kind of guy. Which is why I like him as the 2nd choice to Doncic. If he can't play defense it won't be for lack of trying and that's something I can't really complain about. He's not going to be lazy or disinterested in the game but it is very worrisome that his defensive awareness is the absolute polar opposite of his offensive awareness.

In my opinion, Bagley is a PF so he won't be the last line of defense. Also, some around here (not saying you) are making sound as though Bagley is a t-rex type player. He is 6'11 with a 7'0.5 wingspan. That is not a bad wingspan for a guy his size.

Something I would point out about his defensive awareness (or lack thereof) is where he played for Duke in comparison to HS. He spent most of his time on defense in the paint prior to college. At Duke, he was used primarily on the perimeter (with the less mobile Carter in the paint). This is likely completely different from what he was used to and could partially account for his lack of awareness. Not letting him off the hook, just pointing it out.

 

[Kingster]

Exactly. We're looking at a Blake Griffen type of player rather than an ad. I'm fine with Bagley at #2 since it looks like JJJ and Bamba are out of contention.

I like him better than Griffin. He's got more game than Griffin did when he was in college, imo, and he's smoother, which will translate into being even better.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/20/draft-rumors-news-updates-reports-Luka-Doncic-Hawks

Latest from SI. Looks like Bagley

Basically the link says league executives are beginning to think Kings will go with Bagley. That's a bit thin evidence in my opinion. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're falling for a smokescreen. Maybe they're putting out their own smokescreen. Maybe the author hasn't talked to a whole lot of league executives and has a small sample. I think this thing may well be unknowable until Adam Silver calls it out, unless the Kings actually show their cards.

 

[Padrino]

Basically the link says league executives are beginning to think Kings will go with Bagley. That's a bit thin evidence in my opinion. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're falling for a smokescreen. Maybe they're putting out their own smokescreen. Maybe the author hasn't talked to a whole lot of league executives and has a small sample. I think this thing may well be unknowable until Adam Silver calls it out, unless the Kings actually show their cards.

One of my least favorite pre-draft traditions is the mad scramble for any scrap of information--credible or otherwise--that "proves" a team is going to select player "x." The surety with which some at KF.com speak about 1) who the Kings are going to pick, and 2) who is or isn't going to be a star/bust is amazing to me.

 

[roasthawg]

Basically the link says league executives are beginning to think Kings will go with Bagley. That's a bit thin evidence in my opinion. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're falling for a smokescreen. Maybe they're putting out their own smokescreen. Maybe the author hasn't talked to a whole lot of league executives and has a small sample. I think this thing may well be unknowable until Adam Silver calls it out, unless the Kings actually show their cards.

It's looking increasingly likely that Bagley is gonna be the pick. You're definely right that we won't know until we know but where there's this much smoke there's usually a fire. Find out tomorrow!

 

[funkykingston]

One of my least favorite pre-draft traditions is the mad scramble for any scrap of information--credible or otherwise--that "proves" a team is going to select player "x." The surety with which some at KF.com speak about 1) who the Kings are going to pick, and 2) who is or isn't going to be a star/bust is amazing to me.

There's already emoji proof. How much more credible evidence do you need?

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/...ic-vivek-ranadive-kings-nba-draft-shaka-emoji

 

[Padrino]

There's already emoji proof. How much more credible evidence do you need?

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/...ic-vivek-ranadive-kings-nba-draft-shaka-emoji

Ha! At least The Ringer have the decency to be cheeky about it. That whole article is just one big wink emoji, and it's a refreshing approach to a draft cycle that gets more mentally taxing every season.

 

[BigVirg]

There are a lot of things that can help a player be good defensively. The most important ones are effort and desire. With those 2 traits, any player can at the very least be an average defensive player. How many of the other qualities they have will determine how much better than average they can become. As far as wingspan is concerned, it only starts to be a detriment when it is below average. Even then, that doesn't stop you from playing solid defense b it simply limits some steals and blocked shots.

Chris Paul is arguably one of the best defensive PGs over the past 10 years. He is undersized with an average wingspan and slightly above average athleticism. Some would call him an outlier as a result. However, John Stockton was an undersized PG with average athleticism and wingspan who also was an excellent defensive player (also the NBA's all time steals leader).

Very true. Getting good defensive position to get a good shot contest is far more important than measurables. And i really think his ability to switch and guard the wing is going to be more important than than his rim protection.

 

[Gguod]

Oh please, don't get in a twist. You don't like Bagley. I get it. He's going to be sooo slow on the court because he can't react to what's going on (there must be some congenital problem because you don't believe he can get better) that he's going to be a poor defensive player. We'll see...

Well.. defensively thats exactly what he was in college so I really dont know what to say anymore

 

[ESP47]

In my opinion, Bagley is a PF so he won't be the last line of defense. Also, some around here (not saying you) are making sound as though Bagley is a t-rex type player. He is 6'11 with a 7'0.5 wingspan. That is not a bad wingspan for a guy his size.

Something I would point out about his defensive awareness (or lack thereof) is where he played for Duke in comparison to HS. He spent most of his time on defense in the paint prior to college. At Duke, he was used primarily on the perimeter (with the less mobile Carter in the paint). This is likely completely different from what he was used to and could partially account for his lack of awareness. Not letting him off the hook, just pointing it out.

He's not a T-Rex in general but he is for a top of the draft big man so I get why people are worried about it.

You could very well be correct about his awareness at Duke. He more than likely had very little experience with it but on the flip side I bet most other power fowards in college played center in high school as well. It's just in comparison to everyone else, he was a tick behind. If we draft him hopefully he can turn it around because that's the kind of defense he's going to be playing from here on out. He lacks the wingspan but he does have solid lateral quickness and I do like that he was a good defender in iso situations. He's definitely a guy I can talk myself into being excited about and I do like him but I still think the odds are lower of him working out than they are for Doncic based on the amount of variables needed to pan out.

 

[Telemachus]

He's not a T-Rex in general but he is for a top of the draft big man so I get why people are worried about it.

You could very well be correct about his awareness at Duke. He more than likely had very little experience with it but on the flip side I bet most other power fowards in college played center in high school as well. It's just in comparison to everyone else, he was a tick behind. If we draft him hopefully he can turn it around because that's the kind of defense he's going to be playing from here on out. He lacks the wingspan but he does have solid lateral quickness and I do like that he was a good defender in iso situations. He's definitely a guy I can talk myself into being excited about and I do like him but I still think the odds are lower of him working out than they are for Doncic based on the amount of variables needed to pan out.

What you are counting on with Bagley is his ability and willingness to learn to play defense. We know he has the physical tools to be an above average defender. We know he has the motor and work ethic to improve. We have been told by those that know him that he is willing to learn and wants to learn. So it is down to execution of those things to get better. This is why I believe that he can at the very least be an average defensive player.

 

[Jkbiker]

Sacramento is only a short flight away. And Bagley genuinely views the Kings at No. 2 as a terrific consolation prize. He smiles wide when being congratulated on his likely No. 2 selection. “Sacramento is a great place,” he says. “When I say I want to go No. 1, it’s not a knock on any other team in the draft. If I end up going two, I’ll love being in Sacramento. Being a part of that team and that franchise, that’s a big plus.”That enthusiasm is a primary reason why teams picking in the top 10 of Thursday’s draft view Bagley as the Kings’ likely selection. He was the only premier prospect to visit Sacramento during the pre-draft process.

4 mins ago – via Sports Illustrated
Draft, Marvin Bagley, Sacramento Kings

 

[ESP47]

What you are counting on with Bagley is his ability and willingness to learn to play defense. We know he has the physical tools to be an above average defender. We know he has the motor and work ethic to improve. We have been told by those that know him that he is willing to learn and wants to learn. So it is down to execution of those things to get better. This is why I believe that he can at the very least be an average defensive player.

Saw this on StR

CBS Sports: When you’ve been meeting with teams and doing interviews, has this come up — and I’m not trying to set you up to denigrate the defense you played at Duke — but did you say, "We ran so much zone so much last year, you did not see me and what I’m capable of on a game-to-game basis." Have you had those kind of discussions with the owners and general managers you’ve talked with?

Marvin Bagley III: They’ve mentioned it. Why were we in zone, why am I not not a good shot blocker? I tell them we had Wendell. Me coming up, I’m used to playing that spot. Like I said, the unique team we had, the unique situation we were in, everybody could move around. We had a great team, we were interchangeable. I ended up moving to the wing, far away from the basket, which I don’t know how I could block a shot from the wing. That’s where I don’t understand where [criticism] is coming from. If you go back [to before Duke] and look at everything, you can see that I love to block shots. That’s when I was around the basket, back guy communicating. When I came into Duke it was a new situation where I had to learn different positions, and I challenged myself to learn those positions. It was my first time playing on the wings, learning how to jab at a guy coming in, getting back to the corner. It was a learning process for me.

 

[Kingster]

Basically the link says league executives are beginning to think Kings will go with Bagley. That's a bit thin evidence in my opinion. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. Maybe they're falling for a smokescreen. Maybe they're putting out their own smokescreen. Maybe the author hasn't talked to a whole lot of league executives and has a small sample. I think this thing may well be unknowable until Adam Silver calls it out, unless the Kings actually show their cards.

Of course it's thin evidence. Has Divac come out and publicly said who the pick is going to be? No, he hasn't. Barring that, I'll be seeking out thin evidence. It may be that the Kings org doesn't even know what they are going to do. Reports are that Vivek wants Bagley and others want Doncic. But who the heck really knows with a capital K?

 

[Kingster]

Yes and Duke did not even run a lot of pick and roll with Bagley. Bagley can be devastating out of the pick and roll. We can run Fox / Bagley pick and roll all day. No one will be able to stop it. Bagley can slip the pick or use his drop step. The defenders have to honor Fox speed that leaves Bagley open for the dive. If they switch Bagley will punish the smaller defender. The possibilities are endless. So the critics of Bagley should consider he posted 21/10 on 61 TS without running a lot of his bread-and-butter player.

You're right. They didn't. He was just one of the five guys on the Duke team. It's like they didn't do anything with him that they would do with the average Joe. The thing about him is that not only can he sky to get the ball, but he's got great hands, and he can contort every which way to get it, still have balance and make the shot. This is not WCS that we're talking about.

His dunks are something else. They are tomahawk slams. I saw one play against NC and he did an LBJ play - he threw the ball up on the backboard, went high before anybody else got their knees bent, and slammed the ball through the basket. As the announcer said: There is nobody in America that is quicker to the ball than Bagley. The area on offense that he's going to get better at is going through contact toward the basket. When he gets stronger he's going to go through those bodies and slam it home.

 

[Kingster]

Actually its very rare that someone with so bad insticnts defensively suddenly developes good instincts. Effort is the thing thats easy to teach/demand. Plus Bagley has very mediocre tools defensively so that doesnt help.

He can develope but its very unlikely he ever becomes a good defender. Counting on that to me would be irrational

There's nothing wrong with his instincts.

 

[Kingster]

This is a similar point I made weeks ago when Bagley changes ends if nothing else he forces the first or second transition defender to collapse into the paint. This leaves secondary fast break guys on the wings and trailers open. Contrast this to a slacker like Willie who almost never is the first man out in transition. Buddy is also very good changing ends along with Fox and Bagley. We would not create this dynamic with Luka because he lacks superior leg speed. All this is obvious and why I was forecasting Bagley as the #2 pick the night of the lottery and have never deviated.

That's for sure.

Luka could definitely help getting the ball up the floor with the pass, but I like the fact that Bagley can initiate the break with the defensive rebound and still get up the floor to finish the play. If they draft Bagley and Giles is half of what they say there's no reason why the Kings fast break should be 100% better next year than last.

 

[Nokidding]

Reminds me of a bigger Shawn Marion in regards to his insane 2nd jump ability, Marion had the best 2nd/3rd jumps I have ever seen although very different players otherwise.

 

[Gguod]

There's nothing wrong with his instincts.

Yeah, execept he seems to lack them defensively compared to players like JJJ, Carter, Bamba, even Porter (alltough his tape is against lower level of competition so I'm not gonna die on that hill).

 

[BigVirg]

Today is the day we draft a future All Star. Be happy Kings nation. I'll be at golden 1 tonight and i swear to god there better not be BOOS if/when Bagley is the pick. I'll be thrilled whoever we pick tonight because we will be a better team, PERIOD! Trust in Vlade please! GOOOOOO KINGS! Can't wait for the Sac summer league!

 

[Kingster]

Yeah, execept he seems to lack them defensively compared to players like JJJ, Carter, Bamba, even Porter (alltough his tape is against lower level of competition so I'm not gonna die on that hill).

That is funny, especially the Carter and Bamba part. Carter isn't half the player Bagley. Coach K played him inside and Bagley outside for a reason - he doesn't have the mobility of a Bagley. He's like a poor orphan in talent compared to Bagley. And maybe five years from now Bamba will have the offensive instincts that Bagley had when he was 16 years old. Maybe not. JJJ, I agree, has outstanding defensive instincts, but his offensive game is going to take a good while to come to fruition, and he probably won't ever match Bagley in that regard.

 

[Dime Dropper]

If we don't go with Luka, I hope it's Marvin that we go with. Anyone apart from these two, and I'll be disappointed.