[Game] Kings @ Thunder - Sunday, Oct. 21 - 4 PDT

[Kingster]

OK - so for the sake of expediency, let's define a "contested jump shot" as any shot from 10 feet or greater with a defender within between 0-4 feet - four slots on this table. On "contested jump shots" the league scored a weighted average of 0.7905 points per shot last year. On all other shots, the league scored a weighted average of 1.1266 points per shot. That's a massive difference - it's more than 1.4 times more efficient to not shoot contested jumpers.

Despite that pretty obvious inefficiency, the league shot 33.6% of its shots last year as contested jumpers. So far this year the Kings are taking only 11.6% of their shots as contested jump shots.

As you can see, this is the major difference between this year's Kings' shots so far and the average NBA shot last year - the Kings are taking basically the same number of *uncontested* jumpers, and basically the same number of open shots in the paint, but they have seriously cut down on *contested* jumpers in favor of what turn out to be contested shots in the paint. No matter, because those contested shots in the paint the Kings are favoring have a far higher points per shot (1.2173) than even the average shot that is not a contested jump shot.

Looking at these numbers, this is a shockingly simple recipe for success. I really hope this isn't a fluke. I really hope this is an organizational philosophy that we are instilling: "Unless the shot clock is expiring, forget about shooting a contested jumper, no matter how close you are to the basket. Find an open shooter, or dump the ball into the paint. Period." Sure, we need to work on defense, but this is a really simple way to make our offense click.

Those are fantastic stats. I want to go one step deeper: Why are they taking so few contested jump shots compared to the league last year? TEMPO. It's the fast pace that is allowing them to get open uncontested shots, which is what they did not have last year. The combination of good on-the-court judgement (and good coaching) along with fast break basketball is getting them good shots. With their speed and athleticism, as long as the Kings play fast and pass the basketball they will continue to be a very high scoring team.

 

[kb02]

Fox. Not surprised.

Bags--having his Joachim Noah/Steven Adams type of impact. This is year one. His template is Giannis--look at his handle and athleticism. Year 3, dude is grabbing a board and going coast to coast and scoring or dishing.

Giles reminds of a pre-injury, older version of CWebb.

Shump, offense is a positive.

Belly and Yogi are steals.

The foundation is in place.

 

[ESP47]

But are the Kings taking a lot of midrange shots?

View attachment 8370

27% of the Kings attempts this year are from midrange. The league averaged 46% last year!

When we compare the 3PAs, 24% of the Kings attempts are threes while the league's average is 25%. Not much of a difference.

So that means that the Kings are largely reallocating those inefficient midrange shots to close shots that they are converting at a high percentage.

Having said all of that, it looks like most teams this year are moving away from the league average of midrange shots. It's obviously a small sample size but it could be that the Kings shift from midrange to close shots/3pt shots may not be as drastic as the rest of the teams in the league. This is where they rank so far this year:

5th in % of 0-10 ft attempts
9th in % of 10-22 ft attempts
30th in % of 3pt attempts

It's crazy how big of a shift we have seen in shots taken this year vs. last year. It'll be interesting to see if it stays consistent:

View attachment 8371

Personally I don't really have many complaints about the offense so far. I thought they took too many mid range shots against Utah but they made them at a high clip so it worked. Right now it looks like teams are shooting 3s 35% of the time and the Kings are shooting them about 24% of the time. The league is shooting mid range at a 21% clip while the Kings are shooting them at about a 28% clip.

I'm just thinking that there is a good chance they are on a hot streak and when the hot streak starts to cool down, they will need to sway those 3 point attempts up and mid range attempts back to get closer to the league average. That will make up for the hot streak and keep their points per game up even though their efficiency will go down.

I have complete faith that the shooters we have on this team will still be able to shoot at a pretty high percentage from 3 even if their attempts go up but I don't have faith that the team will continue to shoot 59% from mid range when defenders are 4-6ft away and 71% from mid range when defenders are 6+ feet away. We know those numbers are going to go down and the Kings will need to make up for it in other ways to keep the scoring going. The 3 point shooters are the key because guys like Hield, Beli, Bogie and company are money from the outside.

 

[sactowndog]

When you say "you" have a 40% chance at the 3, "you" isn't playing the game. There are five individual players playing the game, each with different shooting percentages from 3 point land vs 2 point land. The only way your type of argument has any credence is if you apply it to a particular player in particular situations, not the team as a whole. I certainly don't want a guy shooting 3s who shoots 25% from 3 point land when he shoots 60% from 2 point land. If Fox shoots 65% with his mid-range pull ups, say between 12-15' feet, I don't want him to stop doing that to shooting guarded 3 point shots. In other words, you are not providing in those stats the nuance to make any sense of it.

Your point is valid but hard to make a matrix and explain a point. I simplified it for illustrative purposes. If I took out Fox’s and Justin’s 3 point shooting percentage, the point would be even stronger as players like Buddy, Yogi, Beli, Mason shoot a higher percentage from 3 than others shoot from the mid-range.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

That has nothing to do with it. It’s simple math that many here don’t seem to get.

The Kings shoot:
Restricted Area: 66%
In the Paint non RA: 52.3%
Mid-Range: 43.1%
Left Corner 3: 36.4%. (Jackson’s spot)
Right Corner 3: 60%
Above the break: 40%

The Kings shooting percentage isn’t high enough in the mid-range or low enough from 3 to warrant passing on the extra point you get by shooting from 3. The Kings in general are very good shooters and should wherever possible opt for the open 3 over an open midrange shot.

Again simple math, when you have a 40% chance at 3 and a 43% chance at 2, you should opt for the chance at 3.

I get all this. I'm just saying the notion of shooting more threes because that's what other teams do so that's what you have to do is flawed. I'm saying that they need to focus always getting the best shot, whatever that may be. In many cases, it will be an open three. But shooting threes for the sake of shooting threes isn't wise at all.

For example, whatever they're doing now is working. Even though they aren't shooting as many threes as most other teams. That could change depending how future opponents adjust their defense to take away what the Kings are doing well. But as of now, they're averaging 125 points while being near the bottom of in 3 pt attempts. So any claim that they're behind the 8 ball is totally and completely false. If they are able to keep doing what they're doing now, all while improve the defense, they'll be in good position.

 

[sactowndog]

Just looked it up. Paint touches is receiving the ball in the painted area. So if you get it outside the paint and drive it for a layup doesnt count.

I’m not so sure it’s clear that receives the ball is off a pass. Talked with some people I know and they said paint touch should include off the dribble but definition is absolutely not clear.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I'm just thinking that there is a good chance they are on a hot streak and when the hot streak starts to cool down, they will need to sway those 3 point attempts up and mid range attempts back to get closer to the league average. That will make up for the hot streak and keep their points per game up even though their efficiency will go down.

Maybe, maybe not. It all depends upon how defenses continue to defend them. One thing I know is you don't mess with success. And you ride a hot hand until it bucks. While they are 1-2, the offense has looked better these past 3 games than any of us have seen it for quite a long time. Scoring is up across the league for numerous reasons, but the Kings have still been among the most prolific through only 3 games. They should continue to do what they're doing until it's not working anymore. Hopefully Bogie will return soon and fit in seamlessly (I think he will).

They just need to tighten up their defensive rotations and amp up the intensity on that end. But I've still seen some good things from them. The end of the 1st half last night, for example. They've got a lot of length and quickness and with Shumpert leading the charge, they can be really good deflecting passes and forcing turnovers.

 

[sactowndog]

The simple math from your post says we should load up on really tall players and take all of our shots from inside the restricted area.

I don't think people fail to understand the math. People understand that there is context and nuance to numbers. Our 3pt shooting percentage is what it is because we're not focused on shooting as many as we can in 48 minutes. The shots are coming in the flow of the offense. If the Kings shift their offense to take more 3pt shots for the sake of taking them, it will impact their team in other ways. Certain players become unplayable. And the team still won't be averaging more than 125 ppg. They'll just be hitting more 3 pointers per game.

Games aren't played on paper.

Of course but posting a 3 page matrix is a bit much. However multiple times we have lower percentage shooters facing collapsing defenders who shoot the ball outside the restricted area or from the mid-range when we have open 3 point shooters.

 

[ESP47]

Maybe, maybe not. It all depends upon how defenses continue to defend them. One thing I know is you don't mess with success. And you ride a hot hand until it bucks. While they are 1-2, the offense has looked better these past 3 games than any of us have seen it for quite a long time. Scoring is up across the league for numerous reasons, but the Kings have still been among the most prolific through only 3 games. They should continue to do what they're doing until it's not working anymore. Hopefully Bogie will return soon and fit in seamlessly (I think he will).

They just need to tighten up their defensive rotations and amp up the intensity on that end. But I've still seen some good things from them. The end of the 1st half last night, for example. They've got a lot of length and quickness and with Shumpert leading the charge, they can be really good deflecting passes and forcing turnovers.

Everyone is shooting over 50% other than Giles and Jackson right now. There's no way they can sustain that.

Agreed on the defense but the NBA isn't really allowing it right now. It actually helps the Kings because they can't play defense anyway so in a way it kind of minimizes one of their weaknesses.

 

[sactowndog]

The problem is that it's not simple math. It's an equation with many variables that you are discarding. Thinking that an increase in attempts will not effect percentage is ludicrous.

I'm going to try and complicate this topic in an effort to bring better context.

View attachment 8368
*sourced from the 2017-18 season

The three most efficient shots in basketball are 2pt shots within 0-10ft when the closest defender is 2+ feet away. Then it swings over to a 3pt shot when the defender must be 6+ feet away. Then it goes back to a highly contested 0-10 ft 2pt shot being the most efficient.

This chart also tells us that a 3pt shot with a defender 0-2 ft away is the least efficient shot in basketball (A midrange jumper with a defender right there is even better than it). So simply increasing your attempts from three doesn't equate to more success. You must make sure it's a smart three point attempt. Even a wide open (defender 6+ ft away) midrange jumper is on par with a 3pt attempt with a defender 2-4 ft away.


This chart doesn't even do it justice. You would really need to have this chart split out by type of shot (spot up, pull up, transition, post up, etc.) by player on your team. So imagine this chart with a player & shot type column added to the left. Then you start to see what are the best shots as a team. This is just a generalization of the league, but as you know, each team has it's strengths and weaknesses.

The key is to play to your strength not to simply take more threes.

I’m not disagreeing. The problem has been:
1) swinging the ball to open shooters on the weakside
2) post players kicking the ball out to open 3 point shooters
3) guards driving to the paint and kicking out to open shooters.

Fox did a much better job of finding people in the past game on 1. Giles had a nice pass to a right corner 3 on 2. We didn’t see much of 3.

The Kings offense has been good but it could be better with our shooters. Better offense will help us compete in the west.

 

[sactowndog]

The problem is that it's not simple math. It's an equation with many variables that you are discarding. Thinking that an increase in attempts will not effect percentage is ludicrous.

I'm going to try and complicate this topic in an effort to bring better context.

View attachment 8368
*sourced from the 2017-18 season

The three most efficient shots in basketball are 2pt shots within 0-10ft when the closest defender is 2+ feet away. Then it swings over to a 3pt shot when the defender must be 6+ feet away. Then it goes back to a highly contested 0-10 ft 2pt shot being the most efficient.

This chart also tells us that a 3pt shot with a defender 0-2 ft away is the least efficient shot in basketball (A midrange jumper with a defender right there is even better than it). So simply increasing your attempts from three doesn't equate to more success. You must make sure it's a smart three point attempt. Even a wide open (defender 6+ ft away) midrange jumper is on par with a 3pt attempt with a defender 2-4 ft away.


This chart doesn't even do it justice. You would really need to have this chart split out by type of shot (spot up, pull up, transition, post up, etc.) by player on your team. So imagine this chart with a player & shot type column added to the left. Then you start to see what are the best shots as a team. This is just a generalization of the league, but as you know, each team has it's strengths and weaknesses.

The key is to play to your strength not to simply take more threes.

By the way a, potential problem with your chart is I believe it shows basic shooting percentage. You should use true percentage which adjusts the percentages based on whether it’s 2 or 3 points. Comparing a 2 point versus a 3 point shot and saying the 2 is more efficient without adjusting for the point differential is inaccurate.

 

[twslam07]

By the way a, potential problem with your chart is I believe it shows basic shooting percentage. You should use true percentage which adjusts the percentages based on whether it’s 2 or 3 points. Comparing a 2 point versus a 3 point shot and saying the 2 is more efficient without adjusting for the point differential is inaccurate.

That's what the points per attempt is taking into account.

points per attempt = attempts * shooting percentage * 2 points or 3 points (depending on what distance it is)

 

[sactowndog]

OK - so for the sake of expediency, let's define a "contested jump shot" as any shot from 10 feet or greater with a defender within between 0-4 feet - four slots on this table. On "contested jump shots" the league scored a weighted average of 0.7905 points per shot last year. On all other shots, the league scored a weighted average of 1.1266 points per shot. That's a massive difference - it's more than 1.4 times more efficient to not shoot contested jumpers.

Despite that pretty obvious inefficiency, the league shot 33.6% of its shots last year as contested jumpers. So far this year the Kings are taking only 11.6% of their shots as contested jump shots.

As you can see, this is the major difference between this year's Kings' shots so far and the average NBA shot last year - the Kings are taking basically the same number of *uncontested* jumpers, and basically the same number of open shots in the paint, but they have seriously cut down on *contested* jumpers in favor of what turn out to be contested shots in the paint. No matter, because those contested shots in the paint the Kings are favoring have a far higher points per shot (1.2173) than even the average shot that is not a contested jump shot.

Looking at these numbers, this is a shockingly simple recipe for success. I really hope this isn't a fluke. I really hope this is an organizational philosophy that we are instilling: "Unless the shot clock is expiring, forget about shooting a contested jumper, no matter how close you are to the basket. Find an open shooter, or dump the ball into the paint. Period." Sure, we need to work on defense, but this is a really simple way to make our offense click.

I’m okay with this but I would argue we take a number of contested shots in the paint outside of the restricted area when we ought to be kicking the ball out from the paint to open 3 point shooters.

 

[sactowndog]

That's what the points per attempt is taking into account.

points per attempt = attempts * shooting percentage * 2 points or 3 points (depending on what distance it is)

Okay got it. I would bet those 0-10 numbers are highly skewed by shots in the restricted area however.

 

[sactowndog]

I get all this. I'm just saying the notion of shooting more threes because that's what other teams do so that's what you have to do is flawed. I'm saying that they need to focus always getting the best shot, whatever that may be. In many cases, it will be an open three. But shooting threes for the sake of shooting threes isn't wise at all.

For example, whatever they're doing now is working. Even though they aren't shooting as many threes as most other teams. That could change depending how future opponents adjust their defense to take away what the Kings are doing well. But as of now, they're averaging 125 points while being near the bottom of in 3 pt attempts. So any claim that they're behind the 8 ball is totally and completely false. If they are able to keep doing what they're doing now, all while improve the defense, they'll be in good position.

They record is 1-2 so it isn’t completely working. Yes their defense sucks but their offense could be better.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

They record is 1-2 so it isn’t completely working. Yes their defense sucks but their offense could be better.

That's like saying one of the most beautiful men or women in the world could be hotter. 125 per is more than good enough. 117, which is their lowest output -- against a good defensive team no less -- is more than good enough.

Defense is and continues to be the problem so far. That's public enemy #1.

 

[sactowndog]

That's like saying one of the most beautiful men or women in the world could be hotter. 125 per is more than good enough. 117, which is their lowest output -- against a good defensive team no less -- is more than good enough.

Defense is and continues to be the problem so far. That's public enemy #1.

A smart person long ago told me to not focus just on improving my weaknesses but find how I could maximize my strengths. The same advice applies to the Kings.

 

[twslam07]

Okay got it. I would bet those 0-10 numbers are highly skewed by shots in the restricted area however.

But you have to remember this also doesn't account for drawing fouls which shots closer to the rim are more likely to do.

 

[Blob]

When you say "you" have a 40% chance at the 3, "you" isn't playing the game. There are five individual players playing the game, each with different shooting percentages from 3 point land vs 2 point land. The only way your type of argument has any credence is if you apply it to a particular player in particular situations, not the team as a whole. I certainly don't want a guy shooting 3s who shoots 25% from 3 point land when he shoots 60% from 2 point land. If Fox shoots 65% with his mid-range pull ups, say between 12-15' feet, I don't want him to stop doing that to shooting guarded 3 point shots. In other words, you are not providing in those stats the nuance to make any sense of it.

Relatedly a fan was expressing concern that Buddy was "only" shooting 4 threes per game, relative to 5 per game last year in fewer minutes and total FGAs. Excuse me, Buddy is shooting 63.5% TS. That's friggin all-star level awesome. Buddy's problem, if he has one, is not that he is not shooting enough threes or passing them up, it is that he has only shot 4 free throws. There is a subset of fans getting lost in the trees, losing sight of the forest. Shooting threes every chance you get is NOT the objective especially when you have a hand in your face and open teammate. The objective every possession is to get the BEST quality shot. That's the damn objective. Fox can make the floater or midrange with ease when the D takes away the lob. Try to get a dunk and if they take it away, score the easy uncontested two. This is not difficult to understand. I don't think Shumpert forced one three against the Thunder. That's the way it is done. I don't think Fox has given the D the possession off by launching a three too soon. If the Kings start passing up open threes or playing at a pace not conducive to open threes in early offense or delayed break, there is justifiable criticism. But if you are 5th in TS% after being last and 5th in offensive efficiency after being last, this notion you need to alter your offensive attack is silly. The Kings need to work on their rebounding and defense. Their offense is humming beautifully. Bjelica is 4-6 on threes this year. Does he need to get more threes? Hell yeah he does but in the context of what the Kings are doing well now . They do not need to go out of their way to get him shot attempts when they have an offense stupefying the opponents. Our advantage is speed with Fox, lob threat with Willie, high post passing with Giles, penetration with Yogi, and other modes of attack which get us the best quality shot. The threes come in this context not in lieu of it.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

A smart person long ago told me to not focus just on improving my weaknesses but find how I could maximize my strengths. The same advice applies to the Kings.

I think we basically agree. Just to varying degrees.

 

[Section 101]

I’m not so sure it’s clear that receives the ball is off a pass. Talked with some people I know and they said paint touch should include off the dribble but definition is absolutely not clear.

Try looking up the glossary of the stat page you are using.

https://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/

Paint Touch
Definition Any touch were the player receives the ball inside the 3-second lane

 

[Kingster]

Relatedly a fan was expressing concern that Buddy was "only" shooting 4 threes per game, relative to 5 per game last year in fewer minutes and total FGAs. Excuse me, Buddy is shooting 63.5% TS. That's friggin all-star level awesome. Buddy's problem, if he has one, is not that he is not shooting enough threes or passing them up, it is that he has only shot 4 free throws. There is a subset of fans getting lost in the trees, losing sight of the forest. Shooting threes every chance you get is NOT the objective especially when you have a hand in your face and open teammate. The objective every possession is to get the BEST quality shot. That's the damn objective. Fox can make the floater or midrange with ease when the D takes away the lob. Try to get a dunk and if they take it away, score the easy uncontested two. This is not difficult to understand. I don't think Shumpert forced one three against the Thunder. That's the way it is done. I don't think Fox has given the D the possession off by launching a three too soon. If the Kings start passing up open threes or playing at a pace not conducive to open threes in early offense or delayed break, there is justifiable criticism. But if you are 5th in TS% after being last and 5th in offensive efficiency after being last, this notion you need to alter your offensive attack is silly. The Kings need to work on their rebounding and defense. Their offense is humming beautifully. Bjelica is 4-6 on threes this year. Does he need to get more threes? Hell yeah he does but in the context of what the Kings are doing well now . They do not need to go out of their way to get him shot attempts when they have an offense stupefying the opponents. Our advantage is speed with Fox, lob threat with Willie, high post passing with Giles, penetration with Yogi, and other modes of attack which get us the best quality shot. The threes come in this context not in lieu of it.

And to support your point even more, Capt. Factorial has a great post in which he shows statistically that it is "open shots" where you really make your money on offense.

 

[sactowndog]

Try looking up the glossary of the stat page you are using.

https://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/

I did and the definition is not clear as I mentioned. Some people I know in the NBA believe it should include drives

 

[sactowndog]

But you have to remember this also doesn't account for drawing fouls which shots closer to the rim are more likely to do.

True but most of those would be in the circle.

 

[Telemachus]

I did and the definition is not clear as I mentioned. Some people I know in the NBA believe it should include drives

I don't see the disparity. If you drive the ball into the paint, you didn't receive it there. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

 

[Section 101]

I don't see the disparity. If you drive the ball into the paint, you didn't receive it there. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

Bingo. Doesnt matter what other people think. If the nba is only counting receiving then that's what they are recording.

 

[sactowndog]

Bingo. Doesnt matter what other people think. If the nba is only counting receiving then that's what they are recording.

Okay. You two definitely know more than a person who works on the coaching staff of an NBA team. Sorry for questioning your expertise.

 

[Section 101]

Okay. You two definitely know more than a person who works on the coaching staff of an NBA team. Sorry for questioning your expertise.

It has nothing to do with. If the NBA stats says that receiving the ball is what they are call paint touches then that is what they are counting. If a coach wants to call paint something else then they can track their own stats.