First, I think John Wall is going to be a spectacular player.
Second, I think that the Kings only select and keep John Wall if they think that a Wall/Evans backcourt will actually work.
So if they go with this, I'll put my faith in Petrie and Westphal to maximize these two elite talents.
With all that said, I'd far, far rather have an Evans/Turner backcourt than an Evans/Wall backcourt. Let me explain why:
1.) Tyreke is a point-guard.
I think a lot hinges on what position you think Tyreke will play. If people believe that Tyreke will ultimately be a SG then it makes perfect sense to keep John Wall, as Wall would become the elite PG next to an elite SG in Evans.
For me, after watching Tyreke develop, there isn't a doubt in my mind that Tyreke is a PG, and I actually have my doubts that Tyreke will ever thrive playing as an SG.
In my opinion, the first reason why I believe he will continue to be a PG is the fact that he can guard the PG position. I think that the only PG that he really had trouble with all last year was Tony Parker. Nash had big games against him, but that was Nash working screens beautifully and not really Nash beating him due to quickness.
The second reason why I believe that Tyreke is a PG is due to his improved ability to create scoring opportunities for his teammates by forcing the defense to collapse or double and then making the right pass to open shooters. I think we saw that he can create an open shooting opportunity for a teammate whenever he wants. He does this with so much ease, and he's only going to get better in making the right decisions.
The ability to create open shots for teammates is what you want out of your PG and especially down the stretch of the season, I think we saw that Tyreke has elite potential in this area.
The final reason, and perhaps the most important, is the fact that he is a below-average offensive player when forced to play off the ball while being an elite player when he has the ball in his hands.
Here's a fun stat for you:
Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, & Will Bynum
The four above PGs are the only players last year who had less of their field goals assisted by another player than Tyreke.
Tyreke only had 21.2% of his shots assisted, which basically means that he creates 80% of his own offense and you can tell just by watching these games that he doesn't know what to do with himself when he doesn't have the ball in his hands.
For comparisons to other SGs in the league:
Kobe 40.2%
Brandon Roy 34.4%
Joe Johnson 38.7%
Andre Iguodala 49.0%
Dwyane Wade 27.7%
Kevin Martin 62.3%
Eric Goordon 65.1%
Jason Terry 61.4%
O.J. Mayo 55.7%
Serious question here:
How many times did you see Beno or Sergio set up Tyreke with a shot in a half-court offense?
I'd say that he probably got one of these 1 every 2-3 games. He just doesn't play off the ball well.
And this is not new. When he was at Memphis, Calipari tried to play him at the SG and off the ball, and Tyreke and the team struggled. It was only when they decided to play him at PG and put the ball in his hands that he showed he had elite potential. When you take the ball out of Tyreke's hand, you make him ordinary.
2.) Tyreke's struggles at SG
So if we bring in John Wall, Wall will be the PG, I don't think there is any doubt there. Which means that Tyreke will have to move over to SG to accomodate.
Now my problem is that Tyreke playing a more off-the-ball role with-in the offense as a SG is going to make him struggle. It's not what is natural or comfortable for him, and it does not in the least maximize his elite talents, but rather magnifies his areas of weakness.
3.) Alph-Dog Clash
Tyreke is an Alpha-Dog as is Wall. Now typically the best way to get two Alpha-Dogs to work together is to have a veteran Alpha who can adapt and then bring in a younger Alpha, and hopefully you have a veteran team, with a veteran coach, working hard to brings things all together.
Unfortunately our Kings team do not meet any of the above conditions. So you have a 20 year-old Evans who for an entire season was hailed as potentially the greatest player to ever wear a Sacramento Kings jersey.
Then you bring in another 20 year-old player who some are hailing to be one of the most elite PGs to come around in the last 20 years.
Most likely there is going to be a lot of drama regarding who's team it is. Wall will come in as the PG, so he'll be bumping Tyreke out of a position of strength into a position that he is going to struggle with.
All the comfort levels that Tyreke had built up with the team as well as all the team chemistry is going to rush head-long into choppy waters.
4.) Drop in Tyreke's Production and Perceived Value
So if you consider Tyreke struggling in a position he does not do well in, (SG playing off the ball far more) while having to deal with a potential Alpha-Dog clash with John Wall, having doubts about his role on the team, and possibly dealing with chemistry issues on the team due to a drop in performance, I think it's highly likely that we see Tyreke's overall production and value drop.
Why is this important?
Well people say that if you bring in Wall and it just doesn't work, you can trade the player for another player to bring in value that fits better. The problem is that more than likely Tyreke's production and therefore value could drop to the point that we'd be unable to trade him for another superstar.
5.) Loss of Team Identity and Chemistry
This is another issue that I don't see many people bringing up.
The thought that many people have is that Wall is the elite talent so you have to bring him in. And if he and Evans do not work, then you trade the player who doesn't fit as well, and everything is wonderful.
Not so fast.
First, as mentioned above, if one player struggles then you lose potential value. Worse, perhaps is that as long as you have these two alphas going out there trying to prove that this is 'their' team, the rest of the team is going to have a hard time building the chemistry needed to be successful in the playoffs.
Also, from a FO standpoint, if you're questioning whether things will work for a year or two, you're not able to bring in the pieces necessary to best compliment your best player.
So we could lose 1-2 years of chemistry building and FO building around 'our guy', whoever that may be.
6.) Why Turner is the better fit
A.) I don't think that there is going to be too much difference between Turner and Wall as far as their careers go. From a potential talent perspective I'd say that Wall could be in Chris Paul's talent class, while Turner could be in Brandon Roy's talent class. So I think that Wall's potential is greater than Turners, but not so much greater that the organization looks foolish for taking Turner.
B.) As important as the talent level, is the position play. Turner would come in and play the SG. This will allow Tyreke to play to his strengths at the PG position while being the primary ball handler.
Turner can absolutely be a star player while playing off the ball.
So from an on-the-ball/off-the-ball pairing, a Tyreke/Turner pairing will allow both players to play to strengths while a Tyreke/Wall pairing would force one of the players to play to their weakness.
C.) Turner looks to be the kind of player who would never cause chemistry issues due to Alpha-Dog mentalities. So I think he would come right in and let Tyreke run the show, and I think in return, Tyreke would do everything in his power to help Turner win the ROY.
Even if there is some Alpha-Dog clashing, because they'll both be playing at their optimal positions (rather then both of them wanting to be the PG), I don't see this being as big of an issue, because they each will have the chance to shine while in the role they are most comfortable with.
D.) Ball-Handling, Length, Defense, and Size
I think that Turner's ball-handing is as good, if not better than Tyreke's ball handling. So having that SG who is a great ball-handler will absolutely take pressure off of Tyreke.
Turner is 6'7 and a fantastic defender. With Tyreke and Turner in the back-court you'd be looking at one of the better defensive back-courts in the league. Now Wall is going to be a good defender as well, but with Turner's size, you'll have a lot more versatility on defense.
Finally, if you pair up Tyreke and Turner you'd probably have the most dominate offensive back-court in the league by the end of the year. Having Turner on the court would force other teams to put their PG on Tyreke, and we know how much he'd abuse them.
If the team switches and puts their PG on Turner, then Turner would abuse that PG in the way that we all wanted to see Kevin dominate the other team's PG.
7.) Talent Perspective
I'll leave you all with this thought:
If you had Deron Williams as your point guard and Beno Udrich playing the SG along-side him, and had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul or Brandon Roy, who would you draft?
If Tyreke is a PG, then this is the type of scenario we are looking at. John Wall may end up being the best talent of the three. But if you were to pair Chris Paul with Deron Williams, odds are that you'd have to end up trading Deron Williams at some point. And depending on how long it took to make the trade you could have lost 1-3 years of building chemistry while seeing Deron William's value drop.
So I would draft Turner over Wall, as I see a Deron Williams/Brandon Roy pairing working out better from a team success/identity/chemistry perspective when compared to a Deron Williams/Chris Paul pairing.
This is all predicated on the fact that we get the #1 pick. I'd love to be in that position, and I'm hoping that we find ourselves in a position to have to make this sort of choice.
John Wall is going to be a star, but I have major concerns that he will help our team as much as Evan Turner.
