Its not a good argument to say that since we don't "know" Monroe will be a stronger tougher center than Hawes we should stay away. Just because a player has a similar skillset doesn't make them the same player. Monroe is more athletic than Hawes, far less mechanical, and has the frame to end up being a lot stronger. He actually might be bigger and stronger than Hawes right now, at age 19.
Free throws are a pretty good harbinger of athleticism and physical play.
Hawes: 251 games (college and pro's) 398 free throws
Monroe: 65 games 369 free throws
Monroe's just a much better prospect, better than Hawes was coming out and definitely better now.
I think you're missing my point completely.
It's the fact that we can't conclude whether or not Monroe may be marginally better than Hawes from a defensive and rebounding perspective is the reason why it's absurd to think that Petrie will select him at #5.
For instance I can guarantee that Cousins/Favors/Aldrich/Udoh will all be better rebounders and defenders in the NBA when compared to Hawes. So, therefore, it's possible that Petrie could end up selecting one of these players.
Monroe was not a good college defender. Monroe improved his rebounding, but still was not a good rebounder. Monroe is not an explosive athlete.
What Monroe is, is a smooth big man, with great passing ability, and a good post-game. My problem with him, is that from a post perspective, he can only score with the left hand, and he isn't a physical or explosive player. So he was able to do it in college, but I have serious doubts that he'll excel in the NBA.
So if Monroe isn't a large step up in the rebounding/defending department, and if his passing ability is mirrored by Hawes passing ability, and if he isn't as good a shooter as Hawes, and his style of post play is one which might not transfer as well on the NBA level, then why would you want him?
He isn't a tough, physical player. Though he does have a slightly longer wingspan than Hawes, he is both shorter and has a smaller standing reach when compared to Hawes.
Listen, I have my doubts as to whether or not Hawes is going to step up his game and become a consistent, productive member of this team. And if it turns out that he can't become the player we need, then we'll either let him walk, or include him in a trade.
But from a PF perspective, both JT and Landry offer more than Monroe, and due to having NBA experience I would currently put Hawes in front of Monroe as well. So I don't know why you'd want to draft someone at #5 who might be 4th on your PF depth chart while offering none of the things which we actually need at the PF position.
The final thing I want to discuss is your argument in regards to free-throws being an indicator of athleticism and physical play, and your conclusion that Monroe dominates in that area.
Here are the college stats:
Year 1: Hawes 98 FTA
Year 2: Monroe 150 FTA
Year 2: Hawes 0 (Didn't play in college)
Year 2: Monroe 209
Monroe went to the line about 33% more of the time when you compare their freshmen years in college. That is the only comparison that can be made that may have any sort of relevance.
The fact that Hawes' free-throw production dropped dramatically after college just helps support my argument that Monroe's game is going to have difficulty translating in the NBA as well. Neither of them are tough, physical post players. Both of them relied on finesse to position themselves in the post and finish. And as I mentioned, Monroe can only finish with his left hand, which means it will be that much easier to defend against him in the post, and his production in the NBA should suffer because of it.
Let me put it this way. I'm not remotely scared of seeing the Kings face off against Monroe. I don't think he'd have very good success against us. And if I think our frontline can handle him, then I don't really want to have anything to do with him.