Baja Den's way too early, worthless 2023 mock draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
- Start date
I love Andre Jackson Jr. But I'm higher on Jordan Walsh because my fear is that Jackson won't ever develop a consistent outside shot. Mechanically his jumper has issues. Even though Jackson and Walsh shot a similar percentage on similar volume this season, Walsh looks like he just needs some slight tweaks and reps to be passable from three. That and he's a bit bigger and 2 years younger.
That said, IF Jackson could become a halfway decent outside threat, his impact on defense and ability to cut off ball on offense would make him a great fit. I just don't know how confident I can be in that happening. And if teams can sag way off him Ben Simmons style, he becomes unplayable for more than spot minutes.
That said, IF Jackson could become a halfway decent outside threat, his impact on defense and ability to cut off ball on offense would make him a great fit. I just don't know how confident I can be in that happening. And if teams can sag way off him Ben Simmons style, he becomes unplayable for more than spot minutes.
Well the thing with Jackson is he can move the ball well. When they absolutely smacked Gonzaga out of the tournament in that 2nd half slaughter, he damn near had a triple double.
Also he is most excellent at moving without the ball so he might be built to run around in our offense.. Jackson gets the types of buckets as a cutter that are kinda like out work you, beat you to the spot, things that cause opposing head coaches to call timeouts and yell about defensive lapses.
But I believe with Jackson you have to more envision the exact lineup we'd be bringing him off the bench with. To me he fits more here as a swingman a SF/SG type when Jordan Walsh is more of a combo forward.
What about the smallball lineup
Davion - Monk - Andre Jackson - Vezenkov - Lyles
With Lyles Monk and Vezenkov being excellent shooters and Davion being passable/able to get hot, thats plenty of firepower. Andre Jackson is very dangerous at the rim so he might really shine doing the dirty work in a lineup like that. Monk, Jackson, Vezenkov and Lyles all very good passers for their position too might really be a fun unit to watch if they dont get slaughtered on defense in the paint.
Andre Jackson is absolutely one of the highest character players in this draft too, everyone loves playing with him, he has leadership qualities, mega hustle guy, unselfish, plays a winning brand of basketball, the idea would be we have a great offense hes not gonna interrupt that if we can add what he does running up and down it'll be a nice wrinkle as the kid is a gamer. I would imagine he's a player that Doug Christie would like.
Also he is most excellent at moving without the ball so he might be built to run around in our offense.. Jackson gets the types of buckets as a cutter that are kinda like out work you, beat you to the spot, things that cause opposing head coaches to call timeouts and yell about defensive lapses.
But I believe with Jackson you have to more envision the exact lineup we'd be bringing him off the bench with. To me he fits more here as a swingman a SF/SG type when Jordan Walsh is more of a combo forward.
What about the smallball lineup
Davion - Monk - Andre Jackson - Vezenkov - Lyles
With Lyles Monk and Vezenkov being excellent shooters and Davion being passable/able to get hot, thats plenty of firepower. Andre Jackson is very dangerous at the rim so he might really shine doing the dirty work in a lineup like that. Monk, Jackson, Vezenkov and Lyles all very good passers for their position too might really be a fun unit to watch if they dont get slaughtered on defense in the paint.
Andre Jackson is absolutely one of the highest character players in this draft too, everyone loves playing with him, he has leadership qualities, mega hustle guy, unselfish, plays a winning brand of basketball, the idea would be we have a great offense hes not gonna interrupt that if we can add what he does running up and down it'll be a nice wrinkle as the kid is a gamer. I would imagine he's a player that Doug Christie would like.
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The 19 Greenroom invites are;
Victor Wembanyama
Brandon Miller
Scoot Henderson
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson
Cameron Whitmore
Jarace Walker
Anthony Black
Taylor Hendricks
Gradey Dick
Bilal Coulibaly
Cason Wallace
Nick Smith
Dereck Lively
Kobe Bufkin
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jett Howard
Jordan Hawkins
Keyonte George
Victor Wembanyama
Brandon Miller
Scoot Henderson
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson
Cameron Whitmore
Jarace Walker
Anthony Black
Taylor Hendricks
Gradey Dick
Bilal Coulibaly
Cason Wallace
Nick Smith
Dereck Lively
Kobe Bufkin
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jett Howard
Jordan Hawkins
Keyonte George
But it's very possible to have too many bodies for two spots with a maximum of 96 minutes. Every year it's the same issue, work out the minutes. 6 guys is too many even if you plan to platoon those spots. Edwards can play the 2, but again, those G spots are locked pretty tight so even with him playing 2/3/4 depending on need he's getting scraps since Sasha is likely getting some if not most of those SF/PF minutes most nights. The more I think of that the more I think that pick gets dealt as a package unless Sasha says no and Barnes bails with no replacement incoming other than a rookie which does what for the team? Getting a developed player that can play now if that's the goal that can't play some C doesn't make much sense in the short term on paper.
Here's the thing though, do you really think Kris wants to go to a team just so he can support someone else? Kris is ready to help a team needing a shooter now. Adding Kris, or anyone at 24 won't probably help or hurt the Kings next season but it most certainly puts someone like Kris in the same predicament someone like Justin Jackson was put in with the Kings. It might be better to let someone like Kris go develop on another team and save some space to steal him later. Like teams have done to Sac for years lol.
Here's the thing though, do you really think Kris wants to go to a team just so he can support someone else? Kris is ready to help a team needing a shooter now. Adding Kris, or anyone at 24 won't probably help or hurt the Kings next season but it most certainly puts someone like Kris in the same predicament someone like Justin Jackson was put in with the Kings. It might be better to let someone like Kris go develop on another team and save some space to steal him later. Like teams have done to Sac for years lol.
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2023 NBA Draft: Top 50 prospects update - Sports Illustrated
"Between potential draft-and-stash international prospects and college players hoping to boost their stock with another year in school, the outlook for this draft, particularly outside the lottery, has shifted a great deal since SI’s most recent Big Board update."
"Between potential draft-and-stash international prospects and college players hoping to boost their stock with another year in school, the outlook for this draft, particularly outside the lottery, has shifted a great deal since SI’s most recent Big Board update."
I think you're counting the chickens before the eggs here. The only solidified wing/F the Kings have is Keegan.
Barnes is a UFA
Lyles is a UFA
T.Davis was kind of a wing for us, but is a UFA
Vezenkov may or may not come over
Kessler is super promising and I like a lot of the tool-kit, but he's far from being a guy you pencil in for a rotation role.
I think it's fairly like we get at least 2 of Lyles/Vezenkov/Barnes, but even that's not a guarantee. So what happens if those guys decide not to come?
And even still, are we supposed to just not draft talent because we're "loaded" at the position? If that's the case, that takes guards off the table too because we're better at that slot than we are wings. With guys locked into longer-term contracts. So just looking at Domas back-ups in the draft?
I really really hope we don't trade the pick either. Rookie scale contracts are going to be worth their weight in gold in the new CBA and honestly, they're the best way to add talent to good teams that have a core in place. Who cares about short-term? The Kings have an opportunity to build a 5+ year window on the back of Fox and Domas. You do that by really hitting on your draft picks to keep your bench restocked once the core becomes too expensive.
Barnes is a UFA
Lyles is a UFA
T.Davis was kind of a wing for us, but is a UFA
Vezenkov may or may not come over
Kessler is super promising and I like a lot of the tool-kit, but he's far from being a guy you pencil in for a rotation role.
I think it's fairly like we get at least 2 of Lyles/Vezenkov/Barnes, but even that's not a guarantee. So what happens if those guys decide not to come?
And even still, are we supposed to just not draft talent because we're "loaded" at the position? If that's the case, that takes guards off the table too because we're better at that slot than we are wings. With guys locked into longer-term contracts. So just looking at Domas back-ups in the draft?
I really really hope we don't trade the pick either. Rookie scale contracts are going to be worth their weight in gold in the new CBA and honestly, they're the best way to add talent to good teams that have a core in place. Who cares about short-term? The Kings have an opportunity to build a 5+ year window on the back of Fox and Domas. You do that by really hitting on your draft picks to keep your bench restocked once the core becomes too expensive.
I was listening to the Ringer podcast a while back and KOC was talking about where guys were going to be on his next version of his mock draft.
And that's just a bit funny to me. Outside of Wemby and Coulibaly, none of these guys are playing. So why would anyone move around on a draft board now?
The answer is some combination of (a) not fully scouting guys to begin with (b) hearing rumors and/or getting inside info from people around front offices or (c) following the lead of some other mock drafter.
And for (b) and (c) it's why most mocks get more and more similar (and closer to the actual order) as draft day approaches.
Very few guys in the media are really doing mocks based solely on their own scouting. Some I doubt do much scouting at all. They all crib from one another and especially from the few reporters who DO seriously scout guys and/or get inside info.
If you go back and look at the "final" mock drafts from most pundits, they are all pretty similar to one another and generally to how the draft board fell. There's only a handful that differ and take stands on players that don't match what ends up being the consensus. It's all a lot of group think rather than actual analysis.
And that's just a bit funny to me. Outside of Wemby and Coulibaly, none of these guys are playing. So why would anyone move around on a draft board now?
The answer is some combination of (a) not fully scouting guys to begin with (b) hearing rumors and/or getting inside info from people around front offices or (c) following the lead of some other mock drafter.
And for (b) and (c) it's why most mocks get more and more similar (and closer to the actual order) as draft day approaches.
Very few guys in the media are really doing mocks based solely on their own scouting. Some I doubt do much scouting at all. They all crib from one another and especially from the few reporters who DO seriously scout guys and/or get inside info.
If you go back and look at the "final" mock drafts from most pundits, they are all pretty similar to one another and generally to how the draft board fell. There's only a handful that differ and take stands on players that don't match what ends up being the consensus. It's all a lot of group think rather than actual analysis.
One thing that really stands out in Julian Phillips profile is that FTA rate. .615 is crazy at any level of basketball and shot an 82.2% FT. I don't think he was very good last year, but in terms of a super toolsy guy with great athleticism, a great frame and can get to the line and draw fouls? And his defense is further ahead than his offense at this point. That's something you can spend a season or 2 developing and wake up and find a potentially great starting wing for you in year 3.
He's not in consideration for me at 24, but he'd be a screaming value at 38. I'd definitely consider trading up to like 32-33 to get him too.
He's not in consideration for me at 24, but he'd be a screaming value at 38. I'd definitely consider trading up to like 32-33 to get him too.
So ESPN's big board has been updated the international withdrawals have been subtracted. Mostly just changes in the 2nd rd and lower but theres really lots of interesting names and movement the further down you go.
Hunter Tysons cracked the top50.
Our options at 54 definitely look a bit more depleted. But honestly I'm glad to see Omari Moore closer to our pick.
I know I saw a mock posted here earlier from a california newspaper that had a UCLA player Jaquez being mocked to our Kings keeping it all in state, but I'd prefer to just take Moore at 54.
It seems lots of the OTE guys I was wondering about are in. the OTE is so mysterious in many ways. I've heard scouts dont really know what to make of some of the game footage, its odd. Doesnt mean the players shoudl be overlooked.
Hunter Tysons cracked the top50.
Our options at 54 definitely look a bit more depleted. But honestly I'm glad to see Omari Moore closer to our pick.
I know I saw a mock posted here earlier from a california newspaper that had a UCLA player Jaquez being mocked to our Kings keeping it all in state, but I'd prefer to just take Moore at 54.
It seems lots of the OTE guys I was wondering about are in. the OTE is so mysterious in many ways. I've heard scouts dont really know what to make of some of the game footage, its odd. Doesnt mean the players shoudl be overlooked.
yeah this stuff is rampant.. so these guys who do the mocks, most every single one of them, they dont really follow recruiting like me.. lets just make that clear right off the bat n if they do its almost always gonna be at a much more local level, I'm posted up here in New York and keep pretty tight track of the west coast I'd think, I constantly scan thru the ranks of the '4-stars' looking for sleepers, to me it doesnt matter where your from this is much more a matter of where your headed next! a much more exciting topic.. so their context is iffy right off the bat, some of the evaluations I read stink of "very late to the party" and also this sort of animalistic "territorial bias".. N I just do this as a hobby, well actually hobbies cost money I guess you'd call this a passion.
I mean for me personally the NBA draft is the must-see sporting event of the year, everyyear, N I watch it on mute. fk the super bowl, fk the world cup, fk the playoffs or any of it, If I could watch just 1 sporting event per year I'd choose the NBA draft without a second of hesitation. Thats just me though, I think others are much more concerned with the results of the draft, while I'd consider myself someone concerned with the process leading up to the draft, so when it finally rolls around to me it's more like a celebration thats filled with drama every step of the way.
Look no further than the roller coaster of Dereck Lively's stock this season, where's he end up? why right where he started of course!!! I can think of no better example of this phenomena in this draft than him -- a guy who I always said "I'll take him on the Kings, let him run up and down the court with Fox a few times n youll see why he fits here" and I was convinced goiong into the season that the C position outside of Wemby was sneaky good in this draft, partly due to being a believer in Lively (and yes also Clingan on UConn)... Or better yet look at the evaluations from Lively as his stock fluctuated... It'd illustrate the childrens game of "telephone" going on here.. All of a sudden a few weeks back people are surprised that Lively can shoot 3's! Wow! Gee Whiz what a SHOCKER! Mind-Bending! They say "What a lottery talent!" (after projecting him in the 2nd rd for most of the season when the games were actually played)
Narrative bias holds dominion here. It takes a prudent mind thats loaded with lessons from mistakes of the past to constantly avoid it, and even then new things go catastrophically wrong. If you look for it, you'll see narrative bias crash onto unsuspecting readers and pull them out to sea like the undertow every step of the way, dont think NBA franchises are immune cuz theyre worth billions, they get caught slipping too. Thats how Anthony Bennett was a bust, narrative bias, people took a few details and ran with them, filled in the parts they didnt understand with their own intuition, and it wasn't real, the parts they filled in themselves, they gave way too much benefit of the doubt where it was unwarranted, they drafted a fat body #1, they drafted a PF n expected him to play on the wing, at #1, in a draft where Giannis Antetkounmpo isnt good enough to make the lottery... Glad this was the last NBA combine the NBA will allow players to sit out at, the new rules are better for putting a superior product on the floor for the fans, I see no counter-argument to be made.
Meanwhile back when Lively is projected in the 2nd rd and I'm saying we should take him, people are kinda spooked around here to that idea, like its as dangerous as 'catching a falling knife' cuz they think that Lively's recovery ability is gone or whatever the media had people convinced of. The key word is really context, some of these mocks/evals u can just see theres not much.. I'm in my 30's my entry to this sort of draft stuff began with watching Tim Duncan at Wake Forest and honestly this season I look around and think sometimes that its 15 year old kids making these posts, who really havent even been around the block enough times to have developed context..
I'm always reminded of the Malcolm X quote around this time of year
“The media's the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that's power. Because they control the minds of the masses.”
n hey I was high on Serge Ibaka going into that 2008 draft where he was projected in the mid-2nd rd for almost the entire process and only started getting more first rd hype very late, with like weeks leading up to the draft. I wanted the Knicks to draft Brook Lopez and Serge Ibaka that year to fix the rim protection, instead they took Danilo Gallinari. Part of my James Nnaji evaluation this year reminds me of looking at a young Ibaka, I always think of how people used to marginalize the talent of Ibaka and wonder if thats whats going on with this kid too.. Seeing that workout video with Nnaji and Ibaka put a big smile on my face.
I was in fact a Giannis Antetokounmpo fan in that draft(Gobert too and i was VEHEMENT that Schroder was superior to Trey Burke), the forum i was posting on then people were calling Antetokounmpo "my guy".. I memorized how to spell his last name then n been watching ppl struggle say it ever since... He was being marginalized.. really the word is marginalized, cuz u have these players with fantastic skill, fantastic frames and work ethics and these guys put them 45th on the mock and write some throwaway blanket statement blub about the level of competition... n its like this same old mistakes all over again, its like we've learned nothing. Its foolishness. The old saying "A fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise-man learns from the mistakes of others" the draft is really a big test in that sort of vein, but if you read some of these mocks they are clearly written by fools who havent learned lessons from others, their still out there in the beginning stages of their trial and error, and frankly dont put in enough due dilligence to expect fantastic results consistently.
I mean for me personally the NBA draft is the must-see sporting event of the year, everyyear, N I watch it on mute. fk the super bowl, fk the world cup, fk the playoffs or any of it, If I could watch just 1 sporting event per year I'd choose the NBA draft without a second of hesitation. Thats just me though, I think others are much more concerned with the results of the draft, while I'd consider myself someone concerned with the process leading up to the draft, so when it finally rolls around to me it's more like a celebration thats filled with drama every step of the way.
Look no further than the roller coaster of Dereck Lively's stock this season, where's he end up? why right where he started of course!!! I can think of no better example of this phenomena in this draft than him -- a guy who I always said "I'll take him on the Kings, let him run up and down the court with Fox a few times n youll see why he fits here" and I was convinced goiong into the season that the C position outside of Wemby was sneaky good in this draft, partly due to being a believer in Lively (and yes also Clingan on UConn)... Or better yet look at the evaluations from Lively as his stock fluctuated... It'd illustrate the childrens game of "telephone" going on here.. All of a sudden a few weeks back people are surprised that Lively can shoot 3's! Wow! Gee Whiz what a SHOCKER! Mind-Bending! They say "What a lottery talent!" (after projecting him in the 2nd rd for most of the season when the games were actually played)
Narrative bias holds dominion here. It takes a prudent mind thats loaded with lessons from mistakes of the past to constantly avoid it, and even then new things go catastrophically wrong. If you look for it, you'll see narrative bias crash onto unsuspecting readers and pull them out to sea like the undertow every step of the way, dont think NBA franchises are immune cuz theyre worth billions, they get caught slipping too. Thats how Anthony Bennett was a bust, narrative bias, people took a few details and ran with them, filled in the parts they didnt understand with their own intuition, and it wasn't real, the parts they filled in themselves, they gave way too much benefit of the doubt where it was unwarranted, they drafted a fat body #1, they drafted a PF n expected him to play on the wing, at #1, in a draft where Giannis Antetkounmpo isnt good enough to make the lottery... Glad this was the last NBA combine the NBA will allow players to sit out at, the new rules are better for putting a superior product on the floor for the fans, I see no counter-argument to be made.
Meanwhile back when Lively is projected in the 2nd rd and I'm saying we should take him, people are kinda spooked around here to that idea, like its as dangerous as 'catching a falling knife' cuz they think that Lively's recovery ability is gone or whatever the media had people convinced of. The key word is really context, some of these mocks/evals u can just see theres not much.. I'm in my 30's my entry to this sort of draft stuff began with watching Tim Duncan at Wake Forest and honestly this season I look around and think sometimes that its 15 year old kids making these posts, who really havent even been around the block enough times to have developed context..
I'm always reminded of the Malcolm X quote around this time of year
“The media's the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that's power. Because they control the minds of the masses.”
n hey I was high on Serge Ibaka going into that 2008 draft where he was projected in the mid-2nd rd for almost the entire process and only started getting more first rd hype very late, with like weeks leading up to the draft. I wanted the Knicks to draft Brook Lopez and Serge Ibaka that year to fix the rim protection, instead they took Danilo Gallinari. Part of my James Nnaji evaluation this year reminds me of looking at a young Ibaka, I always think of how people used to marginalize the talent of Ibaka and wonder if thats whats going on with this kid too.. Seeing that workout video with Nnaji and Ibaka put a big smile on my face.
I was in fact a Giannis Antetokounmpo fan in that draft(Gobert too and i was VEHEMENT that Schroder was superior to Trey Burke), the forum i was posting on then people were calling Antetokounmpo "my guy".. I memorized how to spell his last name then n been watching ppl struggle say it ever since... He was being marginalized.. really the word is marginalized, cuz u have these players with fantastic skill, fantastic frames and work ethics and these guys put them 45th on the mock and write some throwaway blanket statement blub about the level of competition... n its like this same old mistakes all over again, its like we've learned nothing. Its foolishness. The old saying "A fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise-man learns from the mistakes of others" the draft is really a big test in that sort of vein, but if you read some of these mocks they are clearly written by fools who havent learned lessons from others, their still out there in the beginning stages of their trial and error, and frankly dont put in enough due dilligence to expect fantastic results consistently.
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Ya know going into that season, De'Aaron and Malik's freshman season at Kentucky. Way before games were played, in the offseason, in the summer like now..
I had De'Aaron #1 on my board.. (totally true story btw no details changed after the fact like some of these mocks do -- lookin at you Chad Ford)
You wouldnt even believe the responses I'd get back then when I'd tell people I thought he was in fact the #1 player overall..
Ya know what they'd say
HE CANT SHOOT!
HE CANT SHOOT!
I was told that 20 year old highschooler Josh Jackson was a superior prospect to De'Aaron Fox... Because he's fast and defends! like De'Aaron isnt fast and doesnt defend.
Those same people told me I was an idiot for thinking Andrew Wiggins was way better than Josh Jackson, their thinking was Wiggins is soft and Jackson is tough!
Josh Jackson was the best player in HS to them and ya know who was #2? Marvin Bagley.
But ya know who they'd have #1 over Fox---- Markelle Fultz , Josh Jackson and Lonzo Ball... 3 players not known for their shooting whatsoever.. wait a second, something doesnt add up. do you smell that? It smells like... BS!
This is the quality of information your tasked with wading thru... its trash.. it relies on heresay... heresay... I'll say it one more time --- Heresay..and thats just the chatter part of it lets not even get into how agents and the media is being used to leak info to affect things... this is why any jerk who can type up a spreadsheet and start plugging in some advanced stats can sound convincing if they spam enough tweets because the bar has been set so low, expectations fell thru the basement to deep in the underground there's probably stalactites hanging from the ceiling above expectations they fell so far.
I am someone who had 100's of arguments with people in regards to Ben Simmons vs Brandon Ingram, n I had Ingram #1 n never waivered --- In fact I used to say that I thought Jamal Murray might be better than Ben Simmons and man did people suck their teeth at that --- that was an opinion that 'someone who doesnt know basketball' would come up with... In the way/timeframe that I had De'Aaron #1 that preseason, I actually had Jamal Murray #1 in the preseason before, I was a huge believer in Murray's stepback J, even from the first hoops summit not the 2nd where he gained the hype from.. dont even get me started on Jamal Murray vs Buddy Hield, lotta foolish things said on this very forum ill cut myself off there.
I was told 1000 times that only someone who doesnt know basketball would take Brandon Ingram over Ben Simmons.. Someone whos coached several NBA players told me that.. n I told him he was wrong, n now years later, we can see its not even remotely close..
I had De'Aaron #1 on my board.. (totally true story btw no details changed after the fact like some of these mocks do -- lookin at you Chad Ford)
You wouldnt even believe the responses I'd get back then when I'd tell people I thought he was in fact the #1 player overall..
Ya know what they'd say
HE CANT SHOOT!
HE CANT SHOOT!
I was told that 20 year old highschooler Josh Jackson was a superior prospect to De'Aaron Fox... Because he's fast and defends! like De'Aaron isnt fast and doesnt defend.
Those same people told me I was an idiot for thinking Andrew Wiggins was way better than Josh Jackson, their thinking was Wiggins is soft and Jackson is tough!
Josh Jackson was the best player in HS to them and ya know who was #2? Marvin Bagley.
But ya know who they'd have #1 over Fox---- Markelle Fultz , Josh Jackson and Lonzo Ball... 3 players not known for their shooting whatsoever.. wait a second, something doesnt add up. do you smell that? It smells like... BS!
This is the quality of information your tasked with wading thru... its trash.. it relies on heresay... heresay... I'll say it one more time --- Heresay..and thats just the chatter part of it lets not even get into how agents and the media is being used to leak info to affect things... this is why any jerk who can type up a spreadsheet and start plugging in some advanced stats can sound convincing if they spam enough tweets because the bar has been set so low, expectations fell thru the basement to deep in the underground there's probably stalactites hanging from the ceiling above expectations they fell so far.
I am someone who had 100's of arguments with people in regards to Ben Simmons vs Brandon Ingram, n I had Ingram #1 n never waivered --- In fact I used to say that I thought Jamal Murray might be better than Ben Simmons and man did people suck their teeth at that --- that was an opinion that 'someone who doesnt know basketball' would come up with... In the way/timeframe that I had De'Aaron #1 that preseason, I actually had Jamal Murray #1 in the preseason before, I was a huge believer in Murray's stepback J, even from the first hoops summit not the 2nd where he gained the hype from.. dont even get me started on Jamal Murray vs Buddy Hield, lotta foolish things said on this very forum ill cut myself off there.
I was told 1000 times that only someone who doesnt know basketball would take Brandon Ingram over Ben Simmons.. Someone whos coached several NBA players told me that.. n I told him he was wrong, n now years later, we can see its not even remotely close..
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Yeah, there's only like one big media draft expert guy I really trust at this point and it's Sam Vecenie from the Athletic. Givony used to be a solid draft 'expert' but he's become a huge shill since finding an agent/Draft Express getting bought out by ESPN and it's clear now that a lot of the good Draft Express content was being done by Mike Schmitz, who as a result now is the assistant GM for Portland.
It's really no wonder that the actual draft goes so differently from all the big site mock drafts when you understand that most of these writers get fed 'scoops' and 'leaks' from the same three or four agents and the two or three GMs who fancy themselves media guys more than front office guys (*stares intensely at Daryl Morey*).
Hell, the whole "The Pels are trying to trade up for Scoot!" thing only gained traction because their GM used to be an ESPN analyst and quite blatantly 'leaked' this rumor to try to bring down the market price for a potential trade up.
That all said, it feels like there are a couple of things that are almost guaranteed to happen in this draft:
1- Wemby is going first overall. No brainer even though I would not be shocked to see Scoot or a couple other guys lower in the draft wind up having better careers than him when it's all said and done.
2- GMs in the late lotto/play-in/playoff group of picks are going to be looking for 'the next Christian Braun'. The NBA's a copycat league and with the new CBA kicking in and really making it harder to sign/keep vets long term, these rookie scale contributors are going to be incredibly value to some of these teams that are already nearly capped out. I can see Kris Murray, Jaquez, and Strawther going earlier than projected simply because of these, which could be to the Kings benefit as it pushes some of the younger 'developmental' prospects down to us and Monte, freshly inked to to a three year extension, is able to draft a longer-term dev player who will be better for us in the long run.
3- Big men are probably going to be drafted higher than initially expected thanks to the whole "who's gonna stop Jokic?" narrative thing. It's stupid but I can see some borderline GM deciding that his team is one big man defender away from the ship and drafting Lively and/or Nnaji a bunch of slots early in a failed bid to win the "imaginary showdown with the defending champions" battle (not that I don't believe in either of the guys as longterm prospects). As a result, I somehow wouldn't be shocked to see Keyonte George or Cason Wallace wind up falling out of the lotto and getting picked up by the Heat or something (which would suck for the rest of the league because both guys absolutely feel like they could become stars in that Heat system).
Just by virtue of the Kings not having their entire future tied to the draft for the first time in sixteen years, this has been the most enjoyable draft cycle in recent memory for me. Not having to hope that someone falls to you/Vlade won't make an insane out-of-left-field pick makes the sheer unpredictability of the draft a blast to watch.
It's really no wonder that the actual draft goes so differently from all the big site mock drafts when you understand that most of these writers get fed 'scoops' and 'leaks' from the same three or four agents and the two or three GMs who fancy themselves media guys more than front office guys (*stares intensely at Daryl Morey*).
Hell, the whole "The Pels are trying to trade up for Scoot!" thing only gained traction because their GM used to be an ESPN analyst and quite blatantly 'leaked' this rumor to try to bring down the market price for a potential trade up.
That all said, it feels like there are a couple of things that are almost guaranteed to happen in this draft:
1- Wemby is going first overall. No brainer even though I would not be shocked to see Scoot or a couple other guys lower in the draft wind up having better careers than him when it's all said and done.
2- GMs in the late lotto/play-in/playoff group of picks are going to be looking for 'the next Christian Braun'. The NBA's a copycat league and with the new CBA kicking in and really making it harder to sign/keep vets long term, these rookie scale contributors are going to be incredibly value to some of these teams that are already nearly capped out. I can see Kris Murray, Jaquez, and Strawther going earlier than projected simply because of these, which could be to the Kings benefit as it pushes some of the younger 'developmental' prospects down to us and Monte, freshly inked to to a three year extension, is able to draft a longer-term dev player who will be better for us in the long run.
3- Big men are probably going to be drafted higher than initially expected thanks to the whole "who's gonna stop Jokic?" narrative thing. It's stupid but I can see some borderline GM deciding that his team is one big man defender away from the ship and drafting Lively and/or Nnaji a bunch of slots early in a failed bid to win the "imaginary showdown with the defending champions" battle (not that I don't believe in either of the guys as longterm prospects). As a result, I somehow wouldn't be shocked to see Keyonte George or Cason Wallace wind up falling out of the lotto and getting picked up by the Heat or something (which would suck for the rest of the league because both guys absolutely feel like they could become stars in that Heat system).
Just by virtue of the Kings not having their entire future tied to the draft for the first time in sixteen years, this has been the most enjoyable draft cycle in recent memory for me. Not having to hope that someone falls to you/Vlade won't make an insane out-of-left-field pick makes the sheer unpredictability of the draft a blast to watch.
Ok now spend a few paragraphs telling us about all the times you were wrong.
I really do appreciate your insight but when you say things like "lotta foolish things said on this very forum" you start to lose me. I can guarantee you that we can wait 3 or 4 years and pick through this very thread here and come away with dozens and dozens of "foolish" things you are saying about players in this very draft. Everyone has their moments when they are right about the draft and everyone has their moments when they're wrong. It's real easy to say you like 20 players in the draft and when 4 or 5 of them become top players, you can pound your chest and say "I told you so" to everyone while conveniently forgetting about the other 15 players you touted that didn't turn out to be much.
I really do appreciate your insight but when you say things like "lotta foolish things said on this very forum" you start to lose me. I can guarantee you that we can wait 3 or 4 years and pick through this very thread here and come away with dozens and dozens of "foolish" things you are saying about players in this very draft. Everyone has their moments when they are right about the draft and everyone has their moments when they're wrong. It's real easy to say you like 20 players in the draft and when 4 or 5 of them become top players, you can pound your chest and say "I told you so" to everyone while conveniently forgetting about the other 15 players you touted that didn't turn out to be much.
I know it seems like a great story to send Kris to the Kings, but I don't know that it'd be a great situation for either him or the team.
Sure, there'd be a ton of comfort in playing alongside his twin (and I'm sure his family would like it) but if Kris isn't as good as Keegan then it will just highlight that fact every time he subs in for him. Not to mention, he has essentially the same strengths AND weaknesses as Keegan which doesn't really make the team any more flexible or multifaceted.
Sure, there'd be a ton of comfort in playing alongside his twin (and I'm sure his family would like it) but if Kris isn't as good as Keegan then it will just highlight that fact every time he subs in for him. Not to mention, he has essentially the same strengths AND weaknesses as Keegan which doesn't really make the team any more flexible or multifaceted.
That's a good point. And I'd agree. But (1) a LOT of the people that create and update mock drafts don't have a separate big board and (2) most that do tend to shift their big board along with their mock draft.
I can't think of any pundit that does both a mock draft and a big board where the rankings are significantly different. I think part of that is that if their mock and big board largely match consensus then they can take solace in being wrong on the same guys that front offices were.
There are a few draft guys who really deviate from consensus. For the most part they are right and wrong to the same degree as most, but I appreciate the contrarian thoughts and analysis vs saying the same things as everyone else.
I can't think of any pundit that does both a mock draft and a big board where the rankings are significantly different. I think part of that is that if their mock and big board largely match consensus then they can take solace in being wrong on the same guys that front offices were.
There are a few draft guys who really deviate from consensus. For the most part they are right and wrong to the same degree as most, but I appreciate the contrarian thoughts and analysis vs saying the same things as everyone else.
They play F though, and that's basically the position they'll get most minutes at likely. And that's why prefaced it with an if they come back scenario. If they let Barnes walk, let Trey leave, and don't sign someone that will have to play some at the F at the very least I think Kris' chances of being a rotation guy in that 10-14 mpg range go up dramatically. However, if they are drafting a player 4-6 deep in the rotation and they are a straight up F, not a G, not a big, then I think going with a young undeveloped stasher is the better move. Sending someone like Kris to the G league would be a pointless exercise in my opinion. Also, if the idea is that Brown wants experience at the F spot even if they lose Barnes and Trey, and Sasha doesn't come over, he'll get it from Monte somewhere. Also, if all of those other things do happen, and Kris is the replacement guy, are the Kings better? I don't think so.
And apparently their father thinks they'd develop best separately. I just see a huge problem developing if Kris got drafted and ended up getting the last spot in a deep forward, not so versatile positional depth chart. If Monte is willing to let clear some space out and go with a Kris, Sasha(?), Keegan, and Lyles(?) rotation it's workable. But we've seen enough to know Brown will eventually play small and/or look for a defender like Edwards and Okpala were called upon at times and someone on that list would still get cut some nights.
I have a really hard time imagining that the Warriors pass up on Kris. They're in win-now mode, but went with younger high ceiling/low floor players in their previous drafts that haven't exactly panned out.
Their dynasty is closing up and they need immediate contributors. They're very thin on the wing, and Kris seems like a perfect fit.
Their dynasty is closing up and they need immediate contributors. They're very thin on the wing, and Kris seems like a perfect fit.
Do you have a link for this? I just finished listening to the Mo and Deuce podcast and he didn't really conclude that when they asked about landing spots and growth.
But, if we do draft Kris, he'd need to be ok being the "not as good" twin because on this team, he might always be referred to as "Keegan's brother" by most media..
But, if we do draft Kris, he'd need to be ok being the "not as good" twin because on this team, he might always be referred to as "Keegan's brother" by most media..