Draft position thread

Well, assuming the kings draft a PG with there first pick its looking like we will get the first choice anyways .. OKC will most likely go Big, same with Wiz, Clipps and maybe even GSW, I think if we stay were we are we'll get who we want ( Rubio! )
 
MassachusettsKingsFan said:
8 million, which is more than his salary would be ..

its not my money, but 8 mil seems worth it ..
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We could only pay 500k of it. The rest he'll have to make up in ad deals and salary. He probably won't be coming over this year whether he declares or not, it'd be awhile since a high pick didn't play that year for a reason other than injury though. I doubt he comes over this year, but if he feels that he'd go much higher in this draft than next year's then he might.
 
Vlade4GM said:
We could only pay 500k of it. The rest he'll have to make up in ad deals and salary. He probably won't be coming over this year whether he declares or not, it'd be awhile since a high pick didn't play that year for a reason other than injury though. I doubt he comes over this year, but if he feels that he'd go much higher in this draft than next year's then he might.
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If he can get a Top 5 guarentee he probably should. Next year's draft class will probably be stronger than this year so he could fall a few spots and cost himself a million or so over the life of his contract. Not to mention having a guarentted deal here is good insurance in case he got hurt internationally.
 
Sptsjunkie said:
If he can get a Top 5 guarentee he probably should. Next year's draft class will probably be stronger than this year so he could fall a few spots and cost himself a million or so over the life of his contract. Not to mention having a guarentted deal here is good insurance in case he got hurt internationally.
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Why would they sign him a year before he came over? That would just waste a year of his rookie contract.
 
Vlade4GM said:
Why would they sign him a year before he came over? That would just waste a year of his rookie contract.
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Hmmm, maybe I am confusing the way it woud work here. I was thinking he would have a guarenteed contract to sign, but you are right. If he got hurt, the team could just burn the pick and release his rights. I call a mulligan.
 
The three worst teams are in horrible needs of PGs. Thunder just frated a two-guard who's forcing himself to play point. The Wizards are on perpetual Gilbert-lessness. The Kings... sheesh. We all know that situation. Hell, even the T Wolves and Warriors are in desperate need of a PG.
 
pkballr said:
The three worst teams are in horrible needs of PGs. Thunder just frated a two-guard who's forcing himself to play point. The Wizards are on perpetual Gilbert-lessness. The Kings... sheesh. We all know that situation. Hell, even the T Wolves and Warriors are in desperate need of a PG.
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I would argue that OKC would draft a big man.. They have to at least try westbrook at point, right? They have no promising big men on there roster .. currently there only keepers are Durant, Green and Westbrook .. 1,2,3 .. they need a 4-5.

Wiz is the a little different, depends how arenas plays this year, he is there point then they have jamison/butler at the 2-3-4 .. they could use a Center like Thabeet or maybe a swingman like Aminu .. they could draft PG, I think its 50/50 for them, but if Arenas comes back they should win some games and we can get a better spott then them.

Clipps have davis.

GSW could use on unless they want Ellis there full time .. we will have a pick before them anyways.

Twolves have Love and Jefferson so they prob wont go big .. They also have mccants and Foye for a young 1/2 and Brewer at the 3 .. they could go point, still .. we should be picking before them.
 
I don't see Rubio slipping out of the top 3 in this draft, I just don't see it. While Harden and Griffin are both accomplished college players, Rubio would be the only one with clear NBA star potential in this draft. OKC would have a hard time passing on hometown Griffin though; I think Presti would do what is best for his team but the owner may override him.
 
Vlade4Gm, Im wondering were you found out about the 500k rule, I believe you I'd just like to read the rules somewhere.. I found one article that said it was 200k and another post on yahoo questions that it was 2Mil .. any info you got would help :)
 
I don't have a specific source in mind, I've just recall hearing it on draft nights, various, articles, and from other people. I'm pretty certain it's 500k.
 
Yeah. I think OKC deffinately has to go big. Russ will do at the point for now, and their last three lottery picks have been Wesbrook, Green and Durant. They need a big.
 
MassachusettsKingsFan said:
I would argue that OKC would draft a big man.. They have to at least try westbrook at point, right? They have no promising big men on there roster .. currently there only keepers are Durant, Green and Westbrook .. 1,2,3 .. they need a 4-5.

Wiz is the a little different, depends how arenas plays this year, he is there point then they have jamison/butler at the 2-3-4 .. they could use a Center like Thabeet or maybe a swingman like Aminu .. they could draft PG, I think its 50/50 for them, but if Arenas comes back they should win some games and we can get a better spott then them.

Clipps have davis.

GSW could use on unless they want Ellis there full time .. we will have a pick before them anyways.

Twolves have Love and Jefferson so they prob wont go big .. They also have mccants and Foye for a young 1/2 and Brewer at the 3 .. they could go point, still .. we should be picking before them.
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Durant and Green play the 3-4 spots (don't know which one is called the PF, Green I guess), so it's 1-3-4.

But yeah I bet they draft a big man. I don't think they're ready to replace Westbrook at PG just yet. The Wizards acquired Crittenton, so I dunno how they feel about him for the future. Could go either way for them.
 
MassachusettsKingsFan said:
Vlade4Gm, Im wondering were you found out about the 500k rule, I believe you I'd just like to read the rules somewhere.. I found one article that said it was 200k and another post on yahoo questions that it was 2Mil .. any info you got would help :)
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Check out this answer, which defines signing bonuses:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q62

Basically, a team can pay up to $500K towards the release of a player from the foreign team, and anything over that is considered part of their NBA salary in the form of a signing bonus. I guess technically you could consider it as contributing a bit more than $500K if the team maxes out the player's rookie scale when they wouldn't have otherwise, plus $500K over and above that, but it's still pretty limited. I think Rubio's buyout is in the neighborhood of several million.
 
The most common number I've heard thrown around is 7 million euros, which is like 9 million usd. So even with the 500k, his rookie salary, and a modest shoe deal he still probably doesn't cover the bonus. He's only making like 80k in salary over there too. Maybe by next draft his team is more willing to lower the buyout number in order to get something for him instead of losing him outright after one more year; it will still be tricky though.
 
Vlade4GM said:
The most common number I've heard thrown around is 7 million euros, which is like 9 million usd. So even with the 500k, his rookie salary, and a modest shoe deal he still probably doesn't cover the bonus. He's only making like 80k in salary over there too. Maybe by next draft his team is more willing to lower the buyout number in order to get something for him instead of losing him outright after one more year; it will still be tricky though.
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OK, so I went to the effort to calculate Rubio's potential future earnings, based on whether he comes out for the 2009 draft, the 2010 draft, or the 2011 draft.

The basic results are as follows.
Rubio (optimistic) total career earnings, including buyout:

If he enters the 2009 Draft
2012 = $7.8M
2015 = $69.0M
2018 = $151.7M

If he enters the 2010 Draft
2012 = $3.6M
2015 = $49.5M
2018 = $128.8M

If he enters the 2011 Draft
2012 = $7.3M
2015 = $37.0M
2018 = $113.0M

Before 2012 he's actually best off staying in Europe, but the basic point is that if he can get a max contract, he should want to do that sooner rather than later. Ten years from now, his net gain for eating the buyout in 2009 vs. waiting for 2011 is $39M, and the net gain for eating the buyout in 2009 instead of 2010 is $23M. Assuming these numbers are right and his agent is marginally competent, I'd say there's a good chance he'll enter the draft this year.

Details:
Best guess information suggests that Rubio is under contact until 2011, and would require a maximum buyout of about $7.8M (USD) of which $500K (maximum by rule) would be paid by the NBA team that signs him if he enters the 2009 or 2010 draft. He will be making about $100K (USD) in the meantime. If Rubio were to wait for the 2011 draft, he would not require a buyout.

I based Rubio's first four years of NBA salary on the published rookie salary scale, assuming he is picked at #3 in the draft regardless of the year he comes out.

I assumed Rubio would sign the maximum extension (6 years at maximum league salary w/ 10.5% per year increase) after his fourth year. I had to extrapolate the maximum league salary by assuming a 106% increase each year (the past three years has seen increases of 103.8%, 104.7%, and 105.5%). His draft position has no effect on this maximum salary, only the year in which he signs his extension.
 
Great night for us tonight (in terms of high pick anyways) --> Will be even better though if OKC will hold on against the Warriors.
 
Huge wosses for #1 and #2, and an epic lin for us!
This calls for a quick update.

1. OKC 9-34 .209
2./3. Was/LAC 9-32 .220
4. Sac 10-33 .233
5. Mem 11-30 .268
6. GSW 13-30 .302

With any luck at all, we will be in the top 2 by the end of the month.
 
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