Worst Record = 1st pick?

Revrag

Revrag

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I know this question has probably already been asked and answered, but...

What percentage of the time does the team with the worst record actually end up with the 1st pick. It seems like more often than not someone sneaks into that number 1 spot.

I can't find any specific "studies" but statistically it would only be 25% of the time. So even if we have the worst record, statistical chances are we won't get the top pick.

Let's hope wherever we end up finishing Webber brings his lucky rabbit's foot with him that day. We'll need it.
 
I think Grant mentioned something about it and the answer was that the team with the worst record has actually gotten the top lottery pick very few times (like two or three?) since the system was put into place.

If Webber does manage to be representing us and we get the top pick, the circular irony might actually cause the earth to temporarily stop spinning on its axis!
 
So I found a page with most of the info:
http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

Not on the chart are 2007 and 2008 where Portland and Chicago ended up with the top picks (neither of which had the worst record).

From what I can tell it looks like the team with the worst record has only received the top pick 4 times since 1985, and the last time was 2004.

It happened in back to back years in 2003 and 2004 and before that it was 1990!

Man, that's worse than I thought!
 
JGar said:
From what I can tell it looks like the team with the worst record has only received the top pick 4 times since 1985, and the last time was 2004.

It happened in back to back years in 2003 and 2004 and before that it was 1990!

Man, that's worse than I thought!
Click to expand...

Regardless of what has happened in the past, the probability of the team with the worst record getting the #1 pick is 25%.
 
that not a very good system then
i think the team with the worst record should get number
one the second worst and so on and on
 
sacgirl88 said:
that not a very good system then
i think the team with the worst record should get number
one the second worst and so on and on
Click to expand...


They put the lottery in in the first place in the mid-80s because teams (notably Houston to get first Ralph Sampson, and then Hakeem Olajuwon) were blatantly tanking to get that #1 pick. So they made it a lottery system to try to throw some uncertaintly in so that you wouldn't be able to just throw games to get your superstar when it was obvious one was coming out.

As an aside, I think the number is somehting like 3 of the last 18 times, so basically 1 out of 6, or 17%. By the pure odds it should be 1 of 4, 25%, so maybe the top pick is due this year. ;)

Actually, given that the top pick is almost surely going to be the one guy in the draft we least need positionwise, and a guy who I am not 100% conviced is a superstar type guy, getting les than #1 is ok this year. If Lebron is there, I ma mad. But this year the best part about having the worst record is that we can pick no lower than 4th (the system dictates you can never pick lower than 3 spots below your finish), no matter how bad our luck. It guaranttes us Top 4, and its something like 80% chance in the Top 3, so we are just about guaranteed to be in that Griffin, Rubio, Thabeet, maybe Jennings or whoever your favorite guy is sweet spot. Get us one of those guys, and there is a good shot you have a pice. Maybe not a superstar. But a piece. If we finsih with the 4th worst record or whatever, I would just be scared we could slide and end up picking 6th or 7th or something, and have all the best talents gone and be looking at coming up empty in a draft where we simply can't afford to come up empty.
 
There is uncertainty everywhere on this deal. Yeah, we may not get the #1 with the worst record, but then again that may be a good thing. There are times at the #2-#5 guy is the "real deal." I think we all know what happened in 1984, not only with Jordon, but Barkley as well.

Then again, it could be 1985 all over again. It did not matter who drafted where as pretty much everyone stunk that year.
 
=LarryLegend= said:
No Thabeet has bust all over......Shawn Bradley 2.0.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdPstztPkLA
Click to expand...

Come on Larry, I'm not a huge Thabeet fan, but comparing him to Bradley is ridiculous. He's a lot more athletic than Bradley and has pretty good hops for a big guy. Bradley had a vertical of about 18 inches. He also seems to be playing with a little attitude, while Bradley always had a deer in the headlights look to him. Thabeet also has a lot more muscle on him than Bradley ever dreamed of having. There's simply no comparison between the two of them.
 
David Stern will look guilty if he gives us the first pick so we will definitely draw 2nd or 3rd. Magnetic balls anyone?
 
1. Whats up all the Ricky Rubio talk, theres a very slim chance he enters the draft this year.

2. Griffin >>>> everyone else, I think everyone knows that.

3. If we don't get the #1, give me James Harden any day, guy plays hard and to win. No Risk involved, the guys can just flat out play. Hasheem has a lot of potential, but IMO Harden can be a Manu Ginobli type player in this league.
 
Bricklayer said:
This is a curious statement, because without knowing it you just said at best he is the second most valuable commodity in all of basketball (the most valuable being a superstar).
Click to expand...

Exactly. Someone else called him a career role player. Well yes and thats a role that every championship team has had.

lets run a checklist (if we get Thabeet)

scorer / check
post player / check
6th man / check
shot blocker / check
rebounders / check
superstar / NO
floor leading point guard / NO

now a large part of our checks are young and just need a little more time.

superstar come in the SF or the PG positions. Now if that superstar comes as a PG then we kill 2 birds with 1 stone. Then we need an athletic SF that can spread the floor on offense and guard opposing SF on defense. Donte Greene fits the mold he just has to come around.

So we either draft Thabeet (is he a sure thing as far as NBA shot blocker and rebounder and help defender?)

Or we draft a PG Jennings/Teague/Rubio (are any of these guys a superstar?)

Then you got FA market are either of these needs able to be aquired through free agency while draft the other?

Sessions maybe

Sessions/Beno
Martin/Garcia/
Noccioni/Garcia/Greene
Thompson/Thabeet/Greene
Hawes/Thabeet

with 4 more benchers 1 being our other 1st round pick and maybe that high second round pick.


Sorry I got way off topic.
 
JGar said:
From what I can tell it looks like the team with the worst record has only received the top pick 4 times since 1985, and the last time was 2004.

It happened in back to back years in 2003 and 2004 and before that it was 1990!

Man, that's worse than I thought!
Click to expand...

Thats because the league rigged it all the way through the 90's up to 2002. After the 2002 playoffs and cheating allegations Stern decided to lay off and let chance choose who wins the lottery for a few years, hence 2003 and 2004. Conspiracy...lol :)
 
Bricklayer said:
This is a curious statement, because without knowing it you just said at best he is the second most valuable commodity in all of basketball (the most valuable being a superstar).
Click to expand...
Yeah, people seem to dismiss Thabeet too quickly. Thabeet has only been playing basketball for about 5 years. He went from growing up in a poor african country and never having touched a basketball until he was 15 to a starting position on a final four team. That is pretty insane. He does look a little lost or hesitant at times, but he is still getting comfortable with the game. No one knows how could he could be in another couple years.
 
TheRaven said:
Yeah, people seem to dismiss Thabeet too quickly. Thabeet has only been playing basketball for about 5 years. He went from growing up in a poor african country and never having touched a basketball until he was 15 to a starting position on a final four team. That is pretty insane. He does look a little lost or hesitant at times, but he is still getting comfortable with the game. No one knows how could he could be in another couple years.
Click to expand...

thats the problem, but his ceiling isn't that high, hes an awkwardard scorer who really relies on his size to score @ NCAA level, he won't have that luxury in the NBA.
 
Ok, I didn't phrase my sentence well. What I'm saying is that Thabeet will almost definitely not be an offensive threat and he will also very likely not be able to be a post defender to players like Andrew Bynum, Greg Oden, Dwight Howard, Shaq, or any other power big man. He is just too lanky to be able to guard many centers and without being more than half a foot taller than everyone else on the floor he will rarely be able to score. IMO he could help a team that needs one more piece, but he definitely does not deserve to be picked in the top 3 or even the top 10 IMO.
 
DoDiGaG0 said:
thats the problem, but his ceiling isn't that high, hes an awkwardard scorer who really relies on his size to score @ NCAA level, he won't have that luxury in the NBA.
Click to expand...

Thats the same argument agianst griffin. but tell me why he cant rely on 7'3 and probably the most athletic guy i have ever seen over 7 ft.

manute bol stayed in the league for 10 years and had nothing absolutley nothing outside of his height. wasn't quick wasn't athletic and was thinner than kevin martin.

Thabeet has a chance to be a 7 inch taller ben wallace. have you seen how imposing yao looks on the court? yao is barley a forehead taller than thabeet and doesnt near the athletic ability as thabeet.

in fact i dont know how many ncaa games you have watched lately but a true big like him may actually be better in the nba. ncaa games are like 3pt shooting contest now a days so that makes for long rebounds a fewer chances to block a shot.
 
Entity said:
Thats the same argument agianst griffin. but tell me why he cant rely on 7'3 and probably the most athletic guy i have ever seen over 7 ft.

manute bol stayed in the league for 10 years and had nothing absolutley nothing outside of his height. wasn't quick wasn't athletic and was thinner than kevin martin.

Thabeet has a chance to be a 7 inch taller ben wallace. have you seen how imposing yao looks on the court? yao is barley a forehead taller than thabeet and doesnt near the athletic ability as thabeet.

in fact i dont know how many ncaa games you have watched lately but a true big like him may actually be better in the nba. ncaa games are like 3pt shooting contest now a days so that makes for long rebounds a fewer chances to block a shot.
Click to expand...

Griffin has shown legit offensive skill and has a decent mid range J

IMO He may end up being a player like Mutumbo, but is that what we really need right now?
 
Entity said:
Thats the same argument agianst griffin. but tell me why he cant rely on 7'3 and probably the most athletic guy i have ever seen over 7 ft.

manute bol stayed in the league for 10 years and had nothing absolutley nothing outside of his height. wasn't quick wasn't athletic and was thinner than kevin martin.

Thabeet has a chance to be a 7 inch taller ben wallace. have you seen how imposing yao looks on the court? yao is barley a forehead taller than thabeet and doesnt near the athletic ability as thabeet.

in fact i dont know how many ncaa games you have watched lately but a true big like him may actually be better in the nba. ncaa games are like 3pt shooting contest now a days so that makes for long rebounds a fewer chances to block a shot.
Click to expand...

Nope, he won't be one bit like Ben Wallace. Wallace is somewhat undersized but makes it up with strength and jumping ability that Thabeet just doesn't have. You just can't compare the two.
 
vikinginferno said:
Nope, he won't be one bit like Ben Wallace. Wallace is somewhat undersized but makes it up with strength and jumping ability that Thabeet just doesn't have. You just can't compare the two.
Click to expand...

I think he was comparing the impact that Thabeet will have will be like Ben Wallace's impact on the Pistons. I disagree, but I think it's a solid argument. They're nothing alike physically but that doesn't mean they can't have the same impact.
 
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