OK - I'm iffy on Willie. I think he's an asset, but he's more useful on a playoff team as a fringe starter, and not worth anything more than a 3 year mid-level contract (ie $8-10m per year).
Here's the current state: he's an athletic plus defender and good passer for a big who takes care of the ball. On the downside, he's a slightly below-average rebounder and might never have reliable range outside of the basket. He hasn't gained any muscle or much strength, which has limited his game in the paint as well as vs. stronger matchups on the perimeter. Qualitatively, he's a space cadet at times, and does not do a good job setting screens.
Athletic bigs who can defend and pass well are a rare commodity. I'd keep Willie on a 3-year mid-range contract on that basis alone. I think he can still improve his rebounding (more on that later) and his passing will continue to improve. I'm not sure he'll ever expand his shooting game, as it's gotten worse every year, but I can live with that if he can cut his frequency in the midrange. Liability-wise, I'm worried about his focus and long-term health: if he's relegated to a rim-running role, will he lose interest in basketball altogether? Will his lack of strength cause durability issues? What will affect will his habits have on team culture? So there's potential liability, and a potentially immoveable contract as well if he loses interest or gets injured.
And now some statistical analysis, c/o Cleaning the Glass data:
Where He's Regressed
Where He's Improved
- Compared to other bigs in the league, he's in the bottom 25% of FG% from midrange, and this has gotten worse every year as his frequency has increased (he takes more midrange shots than 82% of bigs in the league - yikes!)
- His FT accuracy is the lowest of his three-year career (62%) putting him at the bottom 15% for bigs.
- His block rate (1.8%) declined from top-third in year one (2.4%) to slightly above league average for bigs, but slightly improved from last year.
So in actuality, he's improved more than he's declined. But is he meeting expectations? Slight no. We expected a top-tier shotblocker and defender, above average rebounder, and competent scorer. He's an above-average defender, more-than-competent scorer if he cuts the midrange shots, and an average rebounder/shotblocker (but both should be better due to his height). His lack of improvement in strength and muscle mass has negated a lot of defensive and rebounding potential, as has his focus. But he's also improved in other areas like passing, defending (outside of shotblocking), and overall skill.
- He's a good passer for a big, and has improved mightily every year (top 80% with a 12.7% assist rate). I never saw this coming, tbh.
- Taking care of the ball - even with his usage rate increasing every year he's kept his turnover rate flat at under 12% (top-third)
- He has improved drawing more fouls this year (on his shots as well as on non-shooting fouls)
- His steal rate is in the top 90% for bigs and has been improving every year
- He's fouling less every year, now in the top-third for bigs in lowest foul rate
- His offensive rebounding rate has slightly improved from last year (now slightly below league average in offensive rebounding) but still not as good as year 1 (top-third)
- His defensive rebounding rate has improved every year from and is now slightly above league average
Let's consider this last tidbit - how #6 picks perform. Over the last 20 years with the #6 pick he possesses the 5th highest PER thus far in his career, and is above league average and improving his PER every year. The median PER is between 11-12. Perhaps our expectations for the #6 have been to high?
Thanks for the good breakdown. I think the issue is that I don't see him accepting 3y 8-10mil each. I think he sees himself as a 15mil player, and as I said in another thread, the key to his value is being able to defend AD, Blake, KP etc. That's the only reason why you'd value his mobility, because you shouldn't be relying on your C to guard backcourt players. If pick and roll defense is bad due to poor guard defense, the obvious solution is to improve guard defense, not to overpay for a non-rebounding, non-shot blocking C to defend the pick and roll.