The Numbers Thread

Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Hey kids, fun with numbers!:


1) Playoffs? We're Talking Playoffs?

The Kings' record stands at 12-20 on the season. .375 Win%.

Meanwhile the West is brutal again, maybe even on a historical pace of brutal. Here ar ehte Top 8 seeds as of today, with current win % and projected win totals:

.706 (58) Phoenix
.697 (57) San Antonio
.676 (55) Dallas
.676 (55) New Orleans
.656 (54) Lakers
.618 (51) Denver
.618 (51) Portland
.571 (47) Golden State

SEVEN fifty win teams, and a 47 win #8 seed. And who knows maybe a couple of those squads slow down, but behind them in the #9 and #10 seeds are "only" Utah (.514) and Houston (.500) who are off to disappointing starts but both won 50+ games last year.

Kings are 12-20 as of today. Leaves 50 games on the season. Which means that in order to win 47 games ourselves and maybe be a #8 seed this year we would have to go 35-15 (.700) from this point onward. As good as the Spurs. :eek:

Note: To be anything more than a #8 would require 39-11 (.780, a 64win pace).


2. Protect the Damn Ball

The Kings are 10-5 this season when having fewer turnover than their opponent.

When they have more turnovers than their opponent? 2-15!


3. And Score Some Damn Points As Well

Kings record when scoring 100+ pts: 11-5.

Kings record when scoring less than 100: 1-15!


4. Stats Through 32 Games (With Rank)

Pts Own: 97.46 (16th)
Pts Opp: 100.65 (19th)
Margin: -3.18 (20th)

FG% Own: .450 (16th)
FG% Opp: .455 (18th)
3pt% Own: .347 (19th)
3pt% Opp: .348 (13th)
FT% Own: .787 (5th)

Assists: 17.90 (29th)
Turnovers: 16.68 (30th)

Reb Margin -2.68 (25th)
Blocks: 3.84 (28th)
Steals: 7.93 (8th)
 
Last edited:
So you're saying there's a chance...

Who knows what a healthy squad will make? Probably not enough wins to get us in the playoffs, but it should make things interesting.
 
Spike said:
So you're saying there's a chance...

Who knows what a healthy squad will make? Probably not enough wins to get us in the playoffs, but it should make things interesting.
Click to expand...


Nope - he sure isn't saying that
 
I love reality!!!! Now I head to Starbucks and digest the numbers. But with the injuries and changes in lineups, nothing really surprising. More defense gets more steals and our offensive # are middle of the pack generally, better than Kings standings.
 
piksi said:
Nope - he sure isn't saying that
Click to expand...

Let me try that again (lest ye think I was serious.)

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

Jim-Carrey---Dumb-Dumber--C10102378.jpeg
 
Bricklayer said:
Hey kids, fun with numbers!:


4. Stats Through 32 Games (With Rank)

FT% Own: .787 (5th)
Click to expand...


Funny how we're 5th in the league here, but we know how to miss just the right ones to make us the 8th worst team in the league. Had we shot better especially at the end of games, we'd probably be at .500 with a real shot at the playoffs. Such is the life of a Kings fan.
 
6'1_PF said:
Funny how we're 5th in the league here, but we know how to miss just the right ones to make us the 8th worst team in the league. Had we shot better especially at the end of games, we'd probably be at .500 with a real shot at the playoffs. Such is the life of a Kings fan.
Click to expand...

Yeah there is at least 6 games.
er.
Pheonix
Denver (twice)
Portland
Cleveland (twice)

4 of those puts us at .500
Hindsight is 20/20
 
Well, if there is a bright side to this, the opponent shooting %s are drastically improved from last year and I think what we've seen on defense bears that out. We still can't get the rebounds so the net effect on winning % is null, but it's at least an encouraging start towards getting out of the league's basement defensively.
 
i think that we will miss the playoff this year...a team, that has mikki moore in the first five,has no possibility to reach the playoff....
 
Don't expect to make the playoffs, but expect by the end of the year to have an exciting team to build around. I think we will get that.
 
The question that I ask is that had injuries not killed this season...would this be a PO worthy team? I guess we may never know. What are the number of games total that Bibby, Martin, and Artest have missed combined? I wouldn't expect the Suns to make the playoffs without Nash, Barbosa, and Marion (could you imagine Marcus Banks starting for that team...).
 
The pre-season over/under for wins for Vegas was 35. I heard a radio show on ESPN discussing it (I think it was The Herd) and the host advised to bet the under, projecting the Kings to finish around 30 wins. Bill Simmons projected us to win 27 games earlier in the season. Steve Kerr routinely projects us to underachieve. This year it looks like all the analysts are spot on about the Kings. Given our ability to lose winnable games on a consistent basis, the upcoming problems with incorporating our starters back into the flow, having to deal with Salmons off the bench (he's been mediocre at best off the bench), I think 30 wins has to be looked at as a reasonable projection for this year.

Of course, Bibby, Artest and Martin could all come back and re-juvenate this team to somewhere in the 38-40 win range, but I won't be holding my breath.
 
Kmart90 said:
Your opinion is exactly the mine.I'm refering to gary
Click to expand...


We have a pretty fun team to watch right now. I love the way Miller is playing, and love the way that Salmons has stepped up. Garcia (even hough he holds the ball too much) has improved this year.

The only thing I won't like is when we have Artest/Salmons/Martin/Garcia/Beno/Bibby/Douby/Jones all trying to get playing time. I think right off we can eliminate Douby, and Jones from everyday play right off. But there are still six players needing time. A move HAS to happen if we are to keep everyone happy.
 
Bricklayer said:
FT% Own: .787 (5th)
Click to expand...
No mystery to that stat, that's Kevin, who shoots 85% and accounts for over 1/3 of our total FT.
Bricklayer said:
Assists: 17.90 (29th)
Turnovers: 16.68 (30th)

Reb Margin -2.68 (25th)
Blocks: 3.84 (28th)
Steals: 7.93 (8th)
Click to expand...
Now these get ugly. We can adjust the roster to get more blocks and rebounds, just play Brad and Justin a lot. Assists, TO and steals are not so easy to address. Here's why:
Ron Artest: .........4.3 assists/game, 3.1 TO/game, 1.39 A/TO, 2.2 stl/game, 0.71 S/TO
John Salmons: ....3.3 assists/game, 2.6 TO/game, 1.27 A/TO, 1.5 stl/game, 0.58 S/TO
Beno Udrih: .........4.8 assists/game, 2.6 TO/game, 1.85 A/TO, 1.1 stl/game, 0.42 S/TO
Brad Miller: .........3.2 assists/game, 2.4 TO/game, 1.33 A/TO, 0.8 stl/game, 0.33 S/TO
Kevin Martin: ......2.1 assists/game, 2.0 TO/game, 1.05 A/TO, 1.4 stl/game, 0.70 S/TO
Francisco Garcia: 1.6 assists/game, 1.9 TO/game, 0.84 A/TO, 1.2 stl/game, 0.63 S/TO
Mikki Moore: .......0.8 assists/game, 1.4 TO/game, 0.57 A/TO, 0.4 stl/game, 0.29 S/TO
Quincy Douby:.....0.7 assists/game, 0.9 TO/game, 0.78 A/TO, 0.6 stl/game, 0.67 S/TO
Kenny Thomas: ...0.6 assists/game, 0.9 TO/game, 0.67 A/TO, 0.3 stl/game, 0.33 S/TO
Dahntay Jones: ...0.6 assists/game, 0.5 TO/game, 1.20 A/TO, 0.5 stl/game, 1.00 S/TO
Spencer Hawes: ..0.2 assists/game, 0.5 TO/game, 0.40 A/TO, 0.2 stl/game, 0.40 S/TO
Justin Williams: ...0.0 assists/game, 0.2 TO/game, 0.00 A/TO, 0.0 stl/game, 0.00 S/TO

For starters: there is not a single King who has a good A/TO ratio, and our leaders for TO are also our leaders for steals, so any substitution which helps us overcome our terrible TO problem will also kill our one bright statistical area. In theory, benching Artest and Salmons in favor of Dahntay Jones might help our steals relative to everything else, but I doubt that anyone's currently prepared to call that a good idea. Swapping out Salmons for Martin would help S/TO a little, but hurt A/TO about equally.

There are really no substitutions we could make that would help our A/TO ratio, simply because there is not a single player on our roster with a good one. Beno's is decent for a regular player, but not very good for a PG, and nobody else is even close.

Unless Bibby has turned into Steve Nash while he's been out, the only solutions for this are going to lie with Reggie and Geoff. We have become the all-iso team, and if any of our players are capable of passing first, or protecting the ball, they aren't doing it.
 
CruzDude said:
I love reality!!!! Now I head to Starbucks and digest the numbers. But with the injuries and changes in lineups, nothing really surprising. More defense gets more steals and our offensive # are middle of the pack generally, better than Kings standings.
Click to expand...

After a grande cup of Sumatra Extra Bold, the "numbers" seem about right for the situation the Kings have had to endure.

Bibby being out all year up to now was a big blow as he was the team leader and go-to guy late in games. Of the 6 games blown with poor FT shooting, he surely could have salvaged 4 of those that were by 1, 2 or 4 points. And away went the double-teams he drew.

Losing RonRon for the first 7 games and now, what 5 games? That hurt stats big time for others as the "stopper" was now out-in then out again so away went his double-teams.

Kevin picked up the load early on but without Bibbs or RonRon to get their double teams, he got smacked by every team and had to junk up more shots than normal.

The rest of the team left had no one to draw double teams, at least until Salmons got hot for awhile, so all the offensive stats went down, and everyone was guarded more than they were used to when the "double-team drawers" were in. So assists went down, TO's rose and the stats suffered all the more.

There have been some really good games and wins against top teams with the hodge-podge rosters, even 3 in-a-row on the road. So they can do it but it is not the roster that can go 35-15. Adding Bibbs and Kevin will get them closer to that and RonRon, if he plays the role Coach has for him and not be a ball hog, can put them into that category. And a trade may even help depending on who the Kings get back.

So all in all, "it is what it is" to quote a person more famous than I.
 
Here's something I didn't look at before...

Bibby versus Beno: a big difference?
.................min/gm....points/gm...assists/gm...reb/gm...stl/gm...TO/gm...FG%..FT%..3pt%
Beno ('08): 36.0........13.6............4.8...............3.7........1.1.......2.6.........42.7....84.8..39.7
Mike ('07): 34.0........17.1............4.7...............3.2........1.1........2.4........40.4....83.0..36.0

It'll be interesting to see whether Mike's return makes much difference in either the team's performance or their stats. Maybe if Reggie splits the minutes evenly enough to leave each player less fatigued... ?
 
Thanks for the numbers, Brick.

The number of turnovers per game is going to be interesting to track for the rest of the season. I can't see them improving on rebounding - you've either got the physicallity to rebound or you don't - but with turnovers I see the possibility of mental improvement and better decision making over time. We'll see...
 
fnordius said:
Here's something I didn't look at before...

Bibby versus Beno: a big difference?
.................min/gm....points/gm...assists/gm...reb/gm...stl/gm...TO/gm...FG%..FT%..3pt%
Beno ('08): 36.0........13.6............4.8...............3.7........1.1.......2.6.........42.7....84.8..39.7
Mike ('07): 34.0........17.1............4.7...............3.2........1.1........2.4........40.4....83.0..36.0

It'll be interesting to see whether Mike's return makes much difference in either the team's performance or their stats. Maybe if Reggie splits the minutes evenly enough to leave each player less fatigued... ?
Click to expand...
Muy interesante. Muy interesante.

Why is Bibby better than Beno? This is an honest question.
 
fnordius said:
Here's something I didn't look at before...

Bibby versus Beno: a big difference?
.................min/gm....points/gm...assists/gm...reb/gm...stl/gm...TO/gm...FG%..FT%..3pt%
Beno ('08): 36.0........13.6............4.8...............3.7........1.1.......2.6.........42.7....84.8..39.7
Mike ('07): 34.0........17.1............4.7...............3.2........1.1........2.4........40.4....83.0..36.0
Click to expand...


That's an interesting comparison. The hitch is that I think '07 was Bibby's worst year and 'o8 is so far Beno's best year. It will take a longer period of time to get an accurate comparison. Still I think Beno stays and Bibbs will soon be a memory.
 
What I found interesting is that some say that Beno is more of a true pg in the fact that he shares the ball and is a pass first guy yet we are 29th in the league in assist all that with Brad Miller leading all Centers in ast per game.
 
yeah, but with all the passing, Cisco, RonRon and Salmons, and even Kevin, tend to dribble before they shoot most of the time, eliminating assists. I think that a second dribble negates an assist. All of which is lack of movement which is aided by double teams but when the double team guys aren't in (RonRon, Bibbs and Kevin) everyone is guarded most of the time restricting easy movement to get easier shots. Even when we pile up the points in the paint, there are enough dribbles getting there that there are no assists. Of course the TO's kill assists too.
 
Bibby in 06 - ppg(21.1) to(2.10) asst(5.4)fgp(.432)3pp(.39)spg(1.0)

probly bibbys best stat year. i dont really like this discussion, im openly a big bibby guy but he's a much bigger threat then beno out there, i also think beno's defence is overrated..its not much better than bibby's.. bibby has the ability for a monster game, i dont see that from beno.. and i like beno.


last year could have been a big year for bibby, he looked good before the injury and he came back to early..
 
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