Rockets game score prediction thread

Was just looking over the Rockets "roster". It looks like a version of a team Harden has been sent to in the D-League to get in game shape after an injury. I literally don't even recognize more than maybe 1 name other than Harden. Will be nice to see Tyrese on Harden. If we can keep him under control, we got this. I'm comfortable "expecting" wins at this stage.


Kings win, and it will be a lasagna night too.

Happy New Year!

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Kings: 126.
Rockets: 122.

Rockets get a + 3 home court advantage. Using the standard +3 home court adjustment, which likely should be a bit lower because of the lack of a crowd.

The biggest differential between the two teams are in the 3 pointers made and 3 point defensive % categories (points given up at the 3 point line). Houston makes 26% more threes than the Kings. Specifically, Houston has made 13.5 three pointers per game while Sac has averaged 10.25 three pointers. The league average is 12.52--so Houston is making a bit more threes per game than the league while Sacramento is making about 15% less threes than the league.

Sacramento defends the three better than Houston--by about 29%. Specifically, Houston is giving up 43.92% on threes this year. While Sac is giving 35.8% on threes. The league average is 36.91%. So Houston is pretty much not defending the three while Sac is doing a bit better than the league.

TLDR; the game will come down to three pointers. And specifically in the Kings ability to defend Houston's threes. Hold them to 12 threes and the Kings win the game.

The spread is -4.5 Houston. I'd buy an extra .5 point and take the Kings +5.
Defense goes out the window today. Kings go down by double digits early on because the Rockets can't miss. Harden has 25 at the half, and DMC has a double double in 12 minutes of play.

Then the Rockets remember that they're old and out of shape. The Kings remember that they're not. Buddy takes umbrage at being called Capt. No Beard and starts hitting threes again. Swipa swipes, and swipes, and swipes. Dora cries.

Kings 132
Rockets 127
One game at a time.
Waltzing into Houston and expecting to win, is how the Kings get blown out by 40.
I would say that the old Kings team expecting to win is how they got blown out in the past, mostly because they were bad teams, not because they were expecting to win. In this case the hope is justified. Go Kings!
Kings: 123. Rockets: 126. Gave the Rockets 3 points for home court and took 3 points from the Kings for the Haliburton injury.

The spread is currently 4.5. Though I think it'll increase as we get closer to game time, because of the Haliburton injury. The over under is 233.5, which sits between the average total score for both teams YTD (223.4) and my projected total of 249 points.

My calcs says to play the spread, but I'm iffy about it. Ditto for the over under, because of Hali's impact on the Kings defense. This is likely a stay away game for me.