Prospect watch 2011

[bajaden]

The tests are stupid because they don't simulate the kind of jumping that's relevant to playing a basketball game. They don't test second jump ability, they don't measure quick jumping ability, they don't measure explosiveness. You don't get all the time in the world to recoil for a jump in a basketball game, you don't get to use the full power of your muscles because there's no time to do it, and it doesn't really matter how you do it with nobody around you and the ability to use footwork and body mechanics that may not be practical in an in-game situation. If a test only sometimes shows what it's supposed to then it's unreliable and a poor test.

Even if the tests are reliable in theory, the way they so haphazardly conduct it makes the sample unreliable. They don't run them through the same drills to get warmed up, and they only do the tests once. If they really cared about accurate results, they'd make them take the test multiple different times so they can a credible sample. I think it has some value in a relative sense, but like I've said, there are so many variables that they don't account for that it's not even worth the effort.

I don't contend that I may have done that at some point in years past, but that would only be relevant if I were claiming that I've always had this judgment about the athletic tests.

I think it's interesting how you criticized me for condemning the tests while allegedly using their results to support my opinion about a player, when you're saying right now that that's totally cool to do. You're saying that if the test confirms what you already believe then it was reliable, and if it doesn't confirm what you already believe, then it was not reliable. Well, then what's the point of the test if you're just going to believe what you did beforehand regardless of the results?

Vlade, your a bright guy, and now your arguing for the sake of arguing, and I'm not going to waste my time on it. I said its not a perfect science. If you don't like the tests fine. I know you've quoted the tests in the past. As have I. As for as everyone not getting the same warmup time etc. They can't make a player go through the tests if he doesn't want to. So they are what they are. But as I said, if a player jumps 40" in the air, the dude can jump 40" in the air. Does it mean he can do it 5 times in a row? No! I'm not going to get into riciculous abstract arguments with you that just waste my time. You don't like the tests! Great! Then don't pay any attention to them.

As to your second point about positive test confirming and a negative test possibly being unreliable. I think I explained why some tests might be unreliable, and in another post I explained that you should base most of you opinion on what you see in the games. That the tests were only a part of what you take into consideration. Now I'm going to be very honest with you. Your starting to irritate me. And I'll tell you why. If you were some stupid moron, I'd understand. But you not. Your a very intelligent and imformed guy. We both know what I'm talking about here. Were both on the same page, and yet your continuing to argue a point, thats really meaningless, because I agreed with you that too much meaning is placed on these tests by some people.

Apparently I hurt your feelings when I said you had used the tests at times to back your opinion of players. And I know you did Vlade. I remember you and I having discussions of results in the past. Now you may have changed your mind on the value of the testing over the years. And thats fine. I don't disagree with any of the faults you find with the testing. Once again, its not a perfect science. But there is middle ground here, and your refusing to take it tells me that your not interested in anything but arguing about it.. So from this point on, I'm sorry if I insulted you, or hurt your feelings, but I'm done with this disscussion.

 

[bajaden]

I watched the one on Kemba. I'll get to the others later. He had Kemba nailed. I believe in my write up of Kemba, I said he had an inconsistent outside shot, and that he wasn't a good finisher. The one area where I'll disagree a little, is on Kemba's defense. I think it should be pointed out that he's capable of playing defense, which is different than saying he didn't play defense. In games where Kemba got a couple of quick fouls, he had a tendecy to disappear on the defensive side of the ball until later in the game. In the film, he tended to only show the times where he didn't play defense, which is fine. In those instances, he didn't. I just wish he would have showed some of the times where he did play some good defense.

I think Kemba's outside shooting will improve at the next level where he doesn't have to be the man all the time. But his ability to score at the basket concerns me. I don't think it will get any easier in the NBA for Kemba. It also concerned me that when Kemba was guarded by a quick, and usually taller player like a Corey Joesph, or a DeAndre Liggins, he really struggled getting his shot off. or at the very least his accuracy really fell off.

 

[Vlade4GM]

There's no hurt feelings here, baja. I agree that we should move on, it's really not that important.

 

[bajaden]

There's no hurt feelings here, baja. I agree that we should move on, it's really not that important.

Peace brother! Upwards and onward....

 

[Big Cuz 15]

I thought this wouldn't be a bad thing to post. Break downs of some players by the Jazz PBP announcer David Locke . This includes lots of prospects we might have the chance to get our dirty paws on.

Alec Burks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H3A3_7Hq7w

Kemba Walker
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaqjvJwrd8w

Derrick Williams
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRxz12caa8E

Brandon Knight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw1h5zCJB5w

Enes Kanter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDypseEA8ls

Dontas Motiejunas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uvJ5rTjsNA

Jonas Valanciunus
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS_-RMKoX9Y

Jan Vesely
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QZxGrVco3o

David Locke Youtube channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/dlouchheim#p/u

Just a warning it sounds like he has only watched limited amounts video on the players. So someone more knowledgeable like Bajaden can hopefully get a word in on how accurate he is.

PS: If anyone is interested there is also limited video archives that the NCAA is allowing people to watch this year(compared to last where they let you watch the whole ncaa tournament), so if you want to watch full games and did not record them you can go to http://vault.ncaa.com/ and hopefully find a game or two to watch.

the only player that looked good in the videos is enes kanter. the others that i liked (vesely) can't get a hold of the ball. small hand syndrome? he needs to come in for some work outs.

 

[bajaden]

Here's an article that gives you a little around the horn info on team workouts.

http://thehoopsreport.com/article.aspx?id=736

 

[bajaden]

Comment by Nate McMillin after working out Kenneth Faried. "He does everything hard. He even ties his shoes hard."

 

[Dime Dropper]

Comment by Nate McMillin after working out Kenneth Faried. "He does everything hard. He even ties his shoes hard."

He'd be a great guy to have practicing on your team. Might light a fire under some of our guys.

 

[bajaden]

He'd be a great guy to have practicing on your team. Might light a fire under some of our guys.

I know some are afraid of his size. But he reminds me a lot of Ben Wallace, who was only about 6'7" without shoes. I think he would be a luxury on a team like the Kings. But he'll definitely help some team. A team like the Warriors could really use him.

 

[hrdboild]

I don't know that Faried's a great fit on this team with Cousins and Dalembert/Thompson already sucking up a lot of minutes (and rebounds) in the frontcourt, but he'll be a nice player somewhere I expect. Probably not worth reaching for at 7, but if we acquire a mid first round pick somehow he could be a good value pick to stash on the roster as injury insurance for one of our other guys. Maybe he makes Thompson expendable at some point.

Also, this is going against the grain, but I'm leaning toward Singleton over Leonard if we go for a SF with our pick. Leonard makes sense if you think he's got enough potential to be a star in the league (ie Gerald Wallace) but I haven't really seen that. His rebounding is terrific and he's athletic enough, but I haven't been that impressed with him overall. I think he'll be a good defender but not an elite one whereas Singleton could be an elite defender with passable offense. I really like what I've seen from Singleton defensively which makes me think he could contribute right away. Singleton might be a guy you trade down to draft though.

 

[bajaden]

I don't know that Faried's a great fit on this team with Cousins and Dalembert/Thompson already sucking up a lot of minutes (and rebounds) in the frontcourt, but he'll be a nice player somewhere I expect. Probably not worth reaching for at 7, but if we acquire a mid first round pick somehow he could be a good value pick to stash on the roster as injury insurance for one of our other guys. Maybe he makes Thompson expendable at some point.

Also, this is going against the grain, but I'm leaning toward Singleton over Leonard if we go for a SF with our pick. Leonard makes sense if you think he's got enough potential to be a star in the league (ie Gerald Wallace) but I haven't really seen that. His rebounding is terrific and he's athletic enough, but I haven't been that impressed with him overall. I think he'll be a good defender but not an elite one whereas Singleton could be an elite defender with passable offense. I really like what I've seen from Singleton defensively which makes me think he could contribute right away. Singleton might be a guy you trade down to draft though.

I agree! I moved Singleton ahead of Leonard a week and a half ago. I'm just not convinced that Leonard will be that great an offensive player, and he'll never be any better, if as good as Singleton defensively. Supossedly Leonard's potential is partially built around his athleticism. Well, Singleton is a better athlete and is bigger and taller. And, he already has a decent offensive game, including a 3 pt shot.

As for trading down, how far down can you go and feel safe that you'll get him. I've heard the Warriors were impressed with him and Burks, and could take either one. I feel that if you like him enough, then go ahead and take him a 7, instead of playing the game where you trade down, and might not end up with him.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Add me to the list of liking Singleton over Leonard.

There's alot of guys I'd like to have in this draft. I have to disagree with the people saying it's the weakest in years. Burks could end up being the best player out of the draft when it's all said and done, but I don't think Petrie has any interest in a SG.

Baja, have you seen Motiejunas play? He might be my favourite European. Certainly have him higher than Valanciunas and Biyombo. He's one of the best big scorers in Europe, and he's only 20 years old. That's the kind of impact guys like Dirk and Pau were having on their teams at the same age. He's very skilled, and even though you won't hear about it too much, he's a really excellent passer of the ball. He also put on some solid muscle mass over the last year which shows he's committed. As always, the questions are about his defense and rebounding. I think he can become adequate at them. And I think he has a lot of potential. Very nice kid too - his personality reminds me of Divac (his game has some similarities too, although it's not the perfect comparison). He's a gentle giant off the court, and instantly likable. There's a warmth about him that's reminiscent of Vlade.

 

[hrdboild]

I agree! I moved Singleton ahead of Leonard a week and a half ago. I'm just not convinced that Leonard will be that great an offensive player, and he'll never be any better, if as good as Singleton defensively. Supossedly Leonard's potential is partially built around his athleticism. Well, Singleton is a better athlete and is bigger and taller. And, he already has a decent offensive game, including a 3 pt shot.

As for trading down, how far down can you go and feel safe that you'll get him. I've heard the Warriors were impressed with him and Burks, and could take either one. I feel that if you like him enough, then go ahead and take him a 7, instead of playing the game where you trade down, and might not end up with him.

Yeah that's a risky game to be playing. I'm just worried that drafting Singleton at #7 wouldn't be maximizing the value of the pick. Some mock drafts still have him going in the 20s. It's unlikely we get a trade throw-in that makes trading down worthwhile, but if we can be reasonably sure he's going to last until the late lottery, we could use our 7th pick on someone else (Walker, Biyombo) and then work out a trade for another pick to get Singleton. That way we get two assets instead of one. My ideal would be if Knight falls down to us and we could convince one of the Suns/Rockets/Pacers that one or both of Beno and Casspi is better than what they can get with their pick.

That's not Petrie's MO though. If he likes Singleton enough, he'll probably just take him at 7. If Knight's still there, than we pass on Singleton.

 

[est.1999]

I'm down with singleton. Honestly, I just want someone who can be a force on D and completely disrupt a game of basketball on that end of the floor. Take him at 7 if you like him. Anyone out of the top 4 or 5 you can make your case for or against drafting them maybe all the way to picks 14-15. So if you want him, take him.

 

[bajaden]

Add me to the list of liking Singleton over Leonard.

There's alot of guys I'd like to have in this draft. I have to disagree with the people saying it's the weakest in years. Burks could end up being the best player out of the draft when it's all said and done, but I don't think Petrie has any interest in a SG.

Baja, have you seen Motiejunas play? He might be my favourite European. Certainly have him higher than Valanciunas and Biyombo. He's one of the best big scorers in Europe, and he's only 20 years old. That's the kind of impact guys like Dirk and Pau were having on their teams at the same age. He's very skilled, and even though you won't hear about it too much, he's a really excellent passer of the ball. He also put on some solid muscle mass over the last year which shows he's committed. As always, the questions are about his defense and rebounding. I think he can become adequate at them. And I think he has a lot of potential. Very nice kid too - his personality reminds me of Divac (his game has some similarities too, although it's not the perfect comparison). He's a gentle giant off the court, and instantly likable. There's a warmth about him that's reminiscent of Vlade.

I must confess that I've only seen him play once, and only a little over the second half at that. I just happened to stumble across one of the international games on one of the ESPN channels one afternoon and wa la, Motiejunas was playing in the game. He did play well enough to attract my attention. The problem I have with international games, is judging the athleticism of the players. There are a lot of, to be kind, less than stellar athlete's on some of the international teams. Don't get me wrong, they're skilled, but quite a few are verticly challenged, and aren't the speediest guys up and down the court.

So against that backdrop, its sometimes hard to judge how a player would compare to and NBA player. But hey, I'm nit picking here. If the dude is anything like Vlade, bring him on board. At present, it doesn't look like Petrie is even looking in that direction.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I must confess that I've only seen him play once, and only a little over the second half at that. I just happened to stumble across one of the international games on one of the ESPN channels one afternoon and wa la, Motiejunas was playing in the game. He did play well enough to attract my attention. The problem I have with international games, is judging the athleticism of the players. There are a lot of, to be kind, less than stellar athlete's on some of the international teams. Don't get me wrong, they're skilled, but quite a few are verticly challenged, and aren't the speediest guys up and down the court.

So against that backdrop, its sometimes hard to judge how a player would compare to and NBA player. But hey, I'm nit picking here. If the dude is anything like Vlade, bring him on board. At present, it doesn't look like Petrie is even looking in that direction.

I hear ya, it certainly ain't easy to judge how an International player will translate to the NBA. They're harder to judge than college players AFAIC. Vlade probably isn't the best comparison since Motiejunas is a PF and Vlade was a C, but the passing skills and offensive saavy, as well as the likable personality reminds me of him.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't think I'd disagree with Singleton over Leonard. The reason Leonard is rated higher is because of offensive upside, and I don't think he's so hopeful on that end that I'd really sacrifice the sure things Singleton has going for him.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

I agree! I moved Singleton ahead of Leonard a week and a half ago. I'm just not convinced that Leonard will be that great an offensive player, and he'll never be any better, if as good as Singleton defensively. Supossedly Leonard's potential is partially built around his athleticism. Well, Singleton is a better athlete and is bigger and taller. And, he already has a decent offensive game, including a 3 pt shot.

As for trading down, how far down can you go and feel safe that you'll get him. I've heard the Warriors were impressed with him and Burks, and could take either one. I feel that if you like him enough, then go ahead and take him a 7, instead of playing the game where you trade down, and might not end up with him.

Agree with you on all counts. I am not much of a Leonard fan. I would much prefer Singleton too.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Baja, what do you think of Jon Leuer?

 

[est.1999]

I'm thinking if knight doesn't fall, Petrie is going fredette or singleton.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

The Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton argument is a good one to have. There is obviously a lot of time between now and the draft, but I find it very interesting that up until now the only first round talent we have brought in are all guards. So while we can look at our roster right now and say we need to upgrade the SF position, it looks like Geoff is more interested in doing that in free agency then in the draft, which is fine by me.

But back to Leonard/Singleton/Hamilton ... I think its pretty darn close. I think I'd take Hamilton first, which may not be super popular because he is the one lowest on most mocks. I think its clear he is the best player right now, and I think he has the most potential. And while defensive minded players like Leonard and Singleton could be better fits .. I dont think Hamilton is a bad defender by any means, and he is a much more developed offensive player.

Leonard and Singleton really is a toss up. I think I would go with Leonard because I really like his personality and energy. Singleton seems kind of laid back to me, which is fine, but I like the 'gym rat' qualities that Leonard seems to have. He's a good solid leader-type player.

 

[Kingster]

For those of those who have seen Leonard, how does he compare to Donte Greene, both defensively and offensively?

 

[Spike]

For those of those who have seen Leonard, how does he compare to Donte Greene, both defensively and offensively?

I think Donte has better offensive potential. Leonard, IMO, is better defensively at this moment, partially due to Donte's inconsistency, but mostly because of his (Leonard's) work ethic and skill.

 

[ElRey]

I think Donte has better offensive potential. Leonard, IMO, is better defensively at this moment, partially due to Donte's inconsistency, but mostly because of his (Leonard's) work ethic and skill.

When your potential lottery pick is projected to be not much better than Donte Freakin Greene, that should tell you something.

 

[Spike]

Good point. Again, "potential" seems to be the name of this draft. Who really knows how they'll end up? Not me.

 

[Kingster]

When your potential lottery pick is projected to be not much better than Donte Freakin Greene, that should tell you something.

Add another reason for Petrie to trade up...

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

Singleton over Leonard camp since Day 1. A freak athlete at the swings who invests heavily on defense is just hard to come by in this league--the only few I can name right now are Josh Smith, Tony Allen, Gerald Wallace and Andrei Kirilenko. I think him being a 3rd year has actually discouraged GMs from putting him in the top tier of prospects, because athletic defense generally has a proven track record of succeeding in the league irrespective of the other parts of that player's game. Also explains why I'm high on Travis Leslie. If Singleton gets a good defensive coach or himself invests in D in the league, he should really stand out--getting 2 steals 1 block in college is a feat unto itself. Most of the swings in this league are just merely average/goodish athletes--Sefolosha, Afflalo, Battier, Bogans, Artest...the list goes on. As a mockster I'm looking for guys who can stand out, and Singleton's one of them. And not accounting for guys who I don't have enough data points, like Enes Kanter, I have Singleton at #6, and Leonard at #13. Of course this won't be the way it goes, but that's the way I see them in terms of NBA success.

 

[bajaden]

Baja, what do you think of Jon Leuer?

I think he has a place in the NBA. He's an interesting guy from the prospective, that he grew about 8 inches in one year, and prior to that he was a combo guard that handled the ball a lot. So what you have is a 6'10"/6'11" player, that really handles the ball well, and passes the ball well. He's also a very good outside shooter, but I think he loves shooting from out there too much. He's actually not bad scoring around the basket, and has some decent post moves. And, he's a better athlete than people think.

Defensively, he was OK in college, but I think he'd have big problems trying to guard the post against guys like Kaman, or even our own Cousins. He's not strong enough. He's also not a particularly good rebounder. But his ability to score the ball will probably land him on a team. He's one of those guys that could be out of the NBA in three years, or surprise people and still be playing a role on a team 12 years from now.

 

[bajaden]

For those of those who have seen Leonard, how does he compare to Donte Greene, both defensively and offensively?

Entirely different types of players coming out of college. Greene was mostly a chucker at Syracuse, while Leonard played mostly PF. Almost all of Leonards scoring was done within 10 feet or less from the basket. While Greene did the majority of his scoring from the outside, except for the occasional alleyoop, or putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket.

Defensively, Leonard is way ahead of where Greene was. Remember, Syracuse always plays a zone defense, so he seldom got to play man to man. And rebounding wise, there's no comparison. Leonard is a very good rebounder, while Greene still manages to amaze me with his ability to avoid rebounds. Leonards biggest weakness is jumpshooting the ball from 15 feet to beyond the 3 pt line. I think Leonard has a better motor than Greene. He's a pretty fierce competitor.

 

[bajaden]

I watched the workout video with Fredette and company. And I watched his interview. I was more impressed with the interview video. The workout video didn't have any surprises in it. I knew he could shoot the ball. I knew he could pass the ball, etc. But I think in the interview video you got a small glimpse into his personality type. He's a very confident guy, and he's a leader. Not a quality unique to him. I think he and Walker share that quality. But my point is, basketball abilities aside, I think that leadership is something our team needs.

I've always felt that Beno has some of those qualities. But I've never felt that Beno had the ability to impose his will on the team. And if you watched either Fredette or Walker this past season, you had no doubt as to who was running their prospective teams. Judging from reaction I'm getting on tweets, the Kings seem to be impressed with Fredette as well. It will be interesting to see how Walker fares when he comes in next week. I believe it will eventually come down to either of these two guys. I have to think that Knight will be gone by 7. Don't you just love the suspense?