Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
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If the Kings are in position, I think I have them ranked in order:
Mathurin
Davis
Murray
Not a fan of Griffin at all. I honestly don't even understand why he is ranked top 10, let alone as high as 4 in some mocks. He can shoot and he has an NBA ready body but he doesn't look like he excels at anything else to me.
Mathurin and Davis are somewhat similar. Mathurin is a better shooter but they have a lot of similarities. I'd give Mathurin the edge on his court vision. Both players are excellent at getting to the line. Both players are tough but Davis is a bit tougher. I give Davis the edge on defense but Mathurin has all the tools as well.
I think Davis' floor is DDV and he would fit right in with Mitchell and DDV but he could potentially fit right in with them as far as building houses out of bricks go as well. He makes up for it by getting to the line but it could be frustrating to watch if he can't shoot.
I have a feeling the consensus top 4 of Smith, Holmgren, Ivey and Banchero could get shaken up here with Mathurin's emergence. He may not even be available by time the Kings pick.
Mathurin
Davis
Murray
Not a fan of Griffin at all. I honestly don't even understand why he is ranked top 10, let alone as high as 4 in some mocks. He can shoot and he has an NBA ready body but he doesn't look like he excels at anything else to me.
Mathurin and Davis are somewhat similar. Mathurin is a better shooter but they have a lot of similarities. I'd give Mathurin the edge on his court vision. Both players are excellent at getting to the line. Both players are tough but Davis is a bit tougher. I give Davis the edge on defense but Mathurin has all the tools as well.
I think Davis' floor is DDV and he would fit right in with Mitchell and DDV but he could potentially fit right in with them as far as building houses out of bricks go as well. He makes up for it by getting to the line but it could be frustrating to watch if he can't shoot.
I have a feeling the consensus top 4 of Smith, Holmgren, Ivey and Banchero could get shaken up here with Mathurin's emergence. He may not even be available by time the Kings pick.
I have him at 4. And I'm tempted to move him into the top 3. Only reason why I haven't yet, is because of the upside potential of the top 3. Right now:
1. Banchero. Favorite for ROTY. Most NBA ready player. He's a 4/3, who legitimately has the skills to be a three--not the Bagley kind of hoping he'll become a three someday. He needs to take more threes. And actively avoids it unless it's there. Has everything else that you want in a modern wing.
2. Smith Jr. Mostly because of the physical profile and his three point shot. He needs to work on his handle. Can take it coast to coast, but rarely goes left and rarely drives against tight defense.
3. Holmgren. I'm hesitant mostly, because I don't think he'll blossom until his second contract. So whoever drafts him, they may be nursing him for a few years, because he's going to get bullied on both sides of the ball.
Small Drop.
4. Mathurin. He's raw, but the upside is enormous.
SMID Drop.
5. Ivey. But not a whole lotta conviction. Need to see him more. Sometimes I see Morant. Sometimes I see Kriss Dunn.
Gigantic Drop.
Murray, Griffen, Davis...I think Jaime Jacquez is just as good as these dudes. And Jacquez will likely go in the second round.
1. Banchero. Favorite for ROTY. Most NBA ready player. He's a 4/3, who legitimately has the skills to be a three--not the Bagley kind of hoping he'll become a three someday. He needs to take more threes. And actively avoids it unless it's there. Has everything else that you want in a modern wing.
2. Smith Jr. Mostly because of the physical profile and his three point shot. He needs to work on his handle. Can take it coast to coast, but rarely goes left and rarely drives against tight defense.
3. Holmgren. I'm hesitant mostly, because I don't think he'll blossom until his second contract. So whoever drafts him, they may be nursing him for a few years, because he's going to get bullied on both sides of the ball.
Small Drop.
4. Mathurin. He's raw, but the upside is enormous.
SMID Drop.
5. Ivey. But not a whole lotta conviction. Need to see him more. Sometimes I see Morant. Sometimes I see Kriss Dunn.
Gigantic Drop.
Murray, Griffen, Davis...I think Jaime Jacquez is just as good as these dudes. And Jacquez will likely go in the second round.
The thing I don't like about Banchero is that you can tell it pains him to take threes. He has very low confidence in his shot and low confidence shooters aren't good shooters. I can easily see him being a sub 30% outside shooter. He would really have to hone in his point forward skills when it comes to driving and dishing to be able to compensate for that.
Problem is that only Smith and Griffin project as plus shooters. Mathurin will more than likely be solid shooter. The rest of the guys either have a good 3pt% and sketchy FT% or vice versa...which is always a roll of the dice when they get to the NBA.
I'm with you on Ivey. I don't see Kris Dunn but I see him look like Morant one possession and then as shaky as DDV the next. I'd take him over Griffin and Holmgren but I'd probably take Davis over him due to his two way potential. I still don't like Holmgren as an NBA player. He's like Porzingis or bust, with bust being a much larger possibility. Just not sure if he's going to translate to the NBA with his body.
Problem is that only Smith and Griffin project as plus shooters. Mathurin will more than likely be solid shooter. The rest of the guys either have a good 3pt% and sketchy FT% or vice versa...which is always a roll of the dice when they get to the NBA.
I'm with you on Ivey. I don't see Kris Dunn but I see him look like Morant one possession and then as shaky as DDV the next. I'd take him over Griffin and Holmgren but I'd probably take Davis over him due to his two way potential. I still don't like Holmgren as an NBA player. He's like Porzingis or bust, with bust being a much larger possibility. Just not sure if he's going to translate to the NBA with his body.
Yea, I agree, Banchero is actively avoiding his three point shot. Though he's shot well from three in the tournament, I wish he would rise and pop when he's open. He's not perfect, but I think improving a player's shot is easier than improving a player's handles. Hence why I lean Banchero over Smith. You don't have to worry about Banchero's ability to handle, create for himself and others in the NBA. You do have to worry about that for Smith, Holmgren, or the players after them (outside of Ivey).
I think Bancerho is the real deal. Other than maybe Holmgren he's the only one that I'm excited about for the Kings next year. Ivey is probably going to be very good, but at this point I have great difficulty seeing him and Fox on the floor at the same time.
Banchero can handle the ball just about better than anybody his size in the NBA right now. How many 6'10" 250 pounders can handle like he does? Ok, Doncic at 6'7" 230 lbs is better. But who else? The Greek Freek? He's outstanding at going end to end with the ball, but I think Banchero has better court vision and can make plays off the move better. After that there's Durant, but he's an entirely different body type. Our own Harrison Barnes can drive to the basket, but imo he's not in Banchero's zipcode when it comes to vision and passing off the dribble. I could see Banchero and Sabonis having a field day with big-to-big passes in the paint. Also, it's not going to take Banchero four or five years to figure out how to drive to the basket and finish through contact. He does it right now. So when he struggles with his outside shot, like every NBA player does at some time or another, he has something to fall back on. He obviously has a good shooting touch and I see nothing stopping him from being very good from the 3 point line eventually. He'll never be a high flying shot blocker, but he has good lateral movement and few players are going to be muscling him at the basket on D.
Banchero can handle the ball just about better than anybody his size in the NBA right now. How many 6'10" 250 pounders can handle like he does? Ok, Doncic at 6'7" 230 lbs is better. But who else? The Greek Freek? He's outstanding at going end to end with the ball, but I think Banchero has better court vision and can make plays off the move better. After that there's Durant, but he's an entirely different body type. Our own Harrison Barnes can drive to the basket, but imo he's not in Banchero's zipcode when it comes to vision and passing off the dribble. I could see Banchero and Sabonis having a field day with big-to-big passes in the paint. Also, it's not going to take Banchero four or five years to figure out how to drive to the basket and finish through contact. He does it right now. So when he struggles with his outside shot, like every NBA player does at some time or another, he has something to fall back on. He obviously has a good shooting touch and I see nothing stopping him from being very good from the 3 point line eventually. He'll never be a high flying shot blocker, but he has good lateral movement and few players are going to be muscling him at the basket on D.
Will never be elite as a perimeter defender. Probably a little better than Murray long term, because he’s taller and a bi5 more agile, but less than Mathurin, Griffen, or Davis. I don’t see any plug and play defensive stars from the top picks though. They’re all going to have a tough time transitioning defensively.
I don’t think he’s Luka, simply because he doesn’t have the three ball, but I do agree that dude is going to be good.
Ivey and him are the only projected top picks, who can create for themselves and others. But Banchero is 6’9 and 250.
Smith has a higher ceiling and if you’re willing to wait for Chet, you take Chet, but I’m taking Banchero first. He’s going to surprise like how Tatum surprised. It’s all there.
Ivey and him are the only projected top picks, who can create for themselves and others. But Banchero is 6’9 and 250.
Smith has a higher ceiling and if you’re willing to wait for Chet, you take Chet, but I’m taking Banchero first. He’s going to surprise like how Tatum surprised. It’s all there.
Tatum's an interesting comp for Paolo. Like Banchero, he didn't really shoot many threes in college (prompting Rudy Gay comps for him) and had some question marks defensively. I do feel like Tatum is a much better athlete than Paolo though, while giving up a few inches height-wise.
Ideally, Paolo will be able to stretch his range/change his mindset to the full perimeter and become a defensive cog like Tatum but as we've seen with lots of other Duke prospects, that's easier said than done.
Ideally, Paolo will be able to stretch his range/change his mindset to the full perimeter and become a defensive cog like Tatum but as we've seen with lots of other Duke prospects, that's easier said than done.
Rudy Gay physically is a good comp for Banchero, but Gay has never had Banchero's handles. As for Tatum, one of the knocks against him was average athleticism. I think what's going to happen is, Banchero's athleticism will be a non-issue when folks realize he has functional athleticism and that there's still more physical upside there. My only concern is his three ball and in particular his hesitation to rise and pop when he's open. Otherwise, all of the things that you want in a modern forward, its there.
I know Smith has the KD profile, but his unwillingness to drive against tight defense is an issue. I've said it numerous times, but I think developing handles is harder than developing your shot. Not just elite handles, functional handles. Banchero has it. Ivey has it. I don't see it for any other top pick. Can they develop it later? Maybe. But there are more Ben McLemore's then there are ________, who couldn't shoot at all, but end up shooting 35% from three later in their careers.
I know Smith has the KD profile, but his unwillingness to drive against tight defense is an issue. I've said it numerous times, but I think developing handles is harder than developing your shot. Not just elite handles, functional handles. Banchero has it. Ivey has it. I don't see it for any other top pick. Can they develop it later? Maybe. But there are more Ben McLemore's then there are ________, who couldn't shoot at all, but end up shooting 35% from three later in their careers.
But Tatum basically stepped into the league as an elite shooter and was a super impactful defender by year 2. I do agree Paolo has the similar scoring creation moves from a big, but I think we're taking way too big of a leap thinking he can develop in a similar fashion to Tatum. The defense and shooting are two major things that make Tatum an elite player. I'd say those are Paolo's biggest question marks right now.
Yeah it depends where we draft. If we're at 3 or 4 (with Chet/Jabari off the board more than likely), you don't worry about it as much and draft the talent. If we're at 1? Phew man, you have to take it into consideration with the upside case of Chet/Jabari being elite big man defenders.
I do think Paolo clearly has the highest floor of anyone in this draft. He'll walk into the NBA as a 16 PPG scorer and as one of the more talented big man passers. Him having the NBA ready body (something Chet/Jabari have to answer) will let him stay on the floor early in his career.
I do think Paolo clearly has the highest floor of anyone in this draft. He'll walk into the NBA as a 16 PPG scorer and as one of the more talented big man passers. Him having the NBA ready body (something Chet/Jabari have to answer) will let him stay on the floor early in his career.
The tough part for me about Banchero on the Kings is determining how often he needs the ball in his hands to be productive. I can see Chet and Smith jr finding plenty of shots with Fox and Sabonis. But if Banchero needs to operate as a point forward to be productive - I think it’s a problem for the Kings.
At some point - you just pick the dude with the most talent. And maybe the Kings run a motion offense to take advantage of Banchero’s passing ability (but spacing issues would be tough). I think it’s more likely a team that values him as an on-ball creator chooses him.
At some point - you just pick the dude with the most talent. And maybe the Kings run a motion offense to take advantage of Banchero’s passing ability (but spacing issues would be tough). I think it’s more likely a team that values him as an on-ball creator chooses him.
This isn't has much an issue for me. Banchero is never going to be a Luka/LeBron type ball-handler/playmaker. His ceiling range is closer to like a Tatum/Randle or Sabonis. The more good passers, the better.
In which case, the Kings still need that elite 3rd banana scorer and guy who can take over a game if Fox/Sabonis aren't rolling. I think Banchero's strength is going to be as a scorer/finisher. The passing chops is just a great added bonus. Barnes is mega efficient but he's shown he can't be that guy on a consistent basis.
The issue Fox/Hali ran into is Hali drastically changed his player profile this year; he went from a secondary ball-handler/creator/elite spacer (basically the perfect role player) to being an on-ball dominator playmaker that needs to control the offense. We've seen it now with Brogdon too in Indy where he struggles to coexist with any sort of USG ball-handler in the back-court with him. So it just became "Fox's turn" and then "Hali's turn". And judging by the early returns on Fox with Sabonis, we unlocked him back into his star profile.
In which case, the Kings still need that elite 3rd banana scorer and guy who can take over a game if Fox/Sabonis aren't rolling. I think Banchero's strength is going to be as a scorer/finisher. The passing chops is just a great added bonus. Barnes is mega efficient but he's shown he can't be that guy on a consistent basis.
The issue Fox/Hali ran into is Hali drastically changed his player profile this year; he went from a secondary ball-handler/creator/elite spacer (basically the perfect role player) to being an on-ball dominator playmaker that needs to control the offense. We've seen it now with Brogdon too in Indy where he struggles to coexist with any sort of USG ball-handler in the back-court with him. So it just became "Fox's turn" and then "Hali's turn". And judging by the early returns on Fox with Sabonis, we unlocked him back into his star profile.
I think Chet has the potential to change a teams future with his length and footwork defensively. Banchero? Not so sure, but Duke tweeners don't usually. At least not at the start. Banchero could easily play the role of pick and roll big and run some offense though. Offensively he should be versatile enough to fit with Fox/Sabonis.
Dude, he's nothing like Luka. Or Tatum for that matter.
He is talented for sure but there are question marks. He is extremely similar to Jabari Parker coming out of Duke. What he has in his favour over Jabari is that he's a better athlete and passer, and hopefully has a better work ethic. But if he's a tweener (the bad type) then he may have issues being an impact player at the next level and not just a decent scorer.
I'm down with him if he's the choice, but expectations need to be tempered. He has a smooth game and he's a cerebral athlete, but he needs to show more confidence in his 3 point shot (looks good when he takes it) and not settle for mid-range jumpers.
He is talented for sure but there are question marks. He is extremely similar to Jabari Parker coming out of Duke. What he has in his favour over Jabari is that he's a better athlete and passer, and hopefully has a better work ethic. But if he's a tweener (the bad type) then he may have issues being an impact player at the next level and not just a decent scorer.
I'm down with him if he's the choice, but expectations need to be tempered. He has a smooth game and he's a cerebral athlete, but he needs to show more confidence in his 3 point shot (looks good when he takes it) and not settle for mid-range jumpers.
Exactly, and people think comparing someone to Jabari or Randle is bad or something. I mean, if Parker didn't have bum knees he's probably a 10 year straight 20 ppg player. Duke probably saw some combo of Jalen Johnson/Zion/Jabari when scouting Banchero. I think he's somewhere in there. Not as dominate as Zion looked though obviously. If he were he'd be number 1 and nobody would even be close at 2.