iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
If he is an elite athlete, skilled, productive, good defensively and has a great worth ethic then him being 22 should not prevent him from being a high draft pick. "potential" is not fully realized 7 times out of 10.
Possible lottery picks in the 2022 draft:
- Thread starter bajaden
- Start date
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
I don't know if he'll be a true go to but if you watch him and then think about the chemistry being formed between Fox and Sabonis, well, regardless of value this is the best fit all things considered IMO. Sabonis would get Ogbaji easy shots all night and on the flip side Ogbaji would get Domas and Fox easy assists.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
made me wonder about a Collins, Jalen Johnson for Barnes, a ‘22 pick swap, a ‘23 first rounder and 2 seconds.
Fox Mitchell
Ogbaji DDV Davis
Holiday J Johnson
Collins Metu
Sabonis Dame Queta
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PurpleHaze
All-Star
I'll instantly become Kings season tix holder if we somehow land Holmgren in the draft - wish, wish. I saw that rebound and full court sprint dunk just like the announcer said live tonight was identical to one he did against UCLA several week back. What an exciting, extremely talented 19 year old Gonzaga freshmen, possible NCAA player of the year.
iowamcnabb
Hall of Famer
Yeh CH is sitting on top for me. His ceiling is through the roof 
I don't see what's special about this play. That just looks like exceptionally poor defense to me and Smith nailed a tough shot that could have been easier if he'd shot it off the catch instead of dribbling closer to his defender. I know a lot of people are fully sold on Smith but I still don't see him as a consensus #1 guy. He looks like a Rashard Lewis type to me which is a solid player but not somebody you build a team around. If we throw fit out the window I think Ivey and Holmgren are better prospects. It's easy to see where Smith fits next to Fox, Sabonis, and Barnes and his solid 3 and D skillset should keep him in the league for a long time but my gut feeling is that he won't end up being the best wing in this draft, just the safest.
Johnny Davis is growing on me quite a bit. The more you watch, the more you see special shot creation with craftiness/quality footwork rather than him scoring with greater athleticism. He's got every trick in the book, understands how to draw contact (.398 FTr on a 32% USG is crazy good) and has a good enough frame to continue to push through contact. I think the big worry is he's not able to find space in the same ways as he has in college vs longer/bigger/better athletes, but he's also elevated his play vs better competition while carrying Wisconsin on his back the whole year. That speaks to him still being able to be dominant vs those better athletes/competition. He'll be a + rebounder as a guard and the defense is surprisingly good for a dude with the biggest offensive workload in the country. He kind of reminds me of older DeMar DeRozan (once he lost some of his athleticism) with just his mastery of the mid-range off the bounce.
The shooting is somewhat a concern as he often opts to create in the mid-range or at the rim. But I think once you dial back the USG and put him in a more complimentary scorer role, he'll be able to get the % up to more than passable levels. I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with his shooting stroke and 77% from the FT line on 6.4 attempts per game speaks to potential positive development with his shot. He's not much of a playmaker right now either, but Wisconsin also doesn't ask him to; they ask him to score. You see occasional signs that he can be a secondary playmaker, but that's something he'll have to further develop in the NBA when he's sharing the scoring workload.
Overall, it's hard to ignore how polished he looks as a scorer when he's pulling off NBA type moves that basically stars do to create off the bounce at just 20 years old. If you didn't know his age, you'd think he was a 4-year college player that spent years to get to this point of development. And I really like that he'll add value as a defender/rebounder, something I was a little sketchy on before diving into him more. He's got to be a more consistent shooter and develop as a passer, but I think you're getting a quality starter as a floor here with potential to be an elite NBA scorer if things break right.
The shooting is somewhat a concern as he often opts to create in the mid-range or at the rim. But I think once you dial back the USG and put him in a more complimentary scorer role, he'll be able to get the % up to more than passable levels. I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with his shooting stroke and 77% from the FT line on 6.4 attempts per game speaks to potential positive development with his shot. He's not much of a playmaker right now either, but Wisconsin also doesn't ask him to; they ask him to score. You see occasional signs that he can be a secondary playmaker, but that's something he'll have to further develop in the NBA when he's sharing the scoring workload.
Overall, it's hard to ignore how polished he looks as a scorer when he's pulling off NBA type moves that basically stars do to create off the bounce at just 20 years old. If you didn't know his age, you'd think he was a 4-year college player that spent years to get to this point of development. And I really like that he'll add value as a defender/rebounder, something I was a little sketchy on before diving into him more. He's got to be a more consistent shooter and develop as a passer, but I think you're getting a quality starter as a floor here with potential to be an elite NBA scorer if things break right.
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I'm a huge Johnny Davis fan, but I don't think you can play him next to Fox and Sabonis. The lack of 3pt shooting is a big problem with the current team, and Davis doesn't really look for his 3pt shot enough. He plays very hard on both ends and I would've loved to pair him next to Hali.
Yeah it's not perfect, but I think you have to seriously consider him at 5 with the talent level. There's just too much scoring skill and he'll still give you good value as a defender and rebounder. And there's room for him now obviously with clearing how Hali/Buddy.
I think my 5-6-7 right now is Griffin-Davis-Murray, but I think all 3 are pretty interchangeable. Wouldn't be mad at any of them being picked at 5.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
He's a power G but he's a natural SG with a good, good stroke. Also, I see enough beast ability between Fox/Davis/Sabonis for it to be as interesting and unique as Bonzi/Ron Ron.
Yeah, I don't think it's a stretch at all he's a better 3pt shooter in the NBA once he gets more space and less defensive attention. Everyone and their mother knows he's going to get the ball and Wisconsin relies on him for his on-ball creation. His assisted FG's this year has to be ridiculously low, especially in the half-court.
And I think the idea is you want high IQ players with a great feel on offense to put around Sabonis. I think Davis fits that mold.
Both Murray and Mathurin have been growing on me. Whereas before I saw a bleak outcome after the top 4, these guys are giving me hope that there could be some hidden value in the mid lottery this year. If Shaedon Sharpe decides to declare too there's at least 8 prospects here I would feel very good about at the top of the draft and I'm with Baja in hoping we can somehow get Oscar Tshiebwe with our second pick. Second chance points have been killing us this season to the point where I'd rather have another elite rebounder in the rotation than another shotblocker.
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
Sochan’s stock definitely appears to be skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks or so. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a Scottie Barnes/Patrick Williams-esque rise into the top 5 (even though they’re completely different as prospects) if Baylor makes another run through March Madness.
SacTownKid
Hall of Famer
Hopefully some of these risers do happen, then that might mean one of these legit G's fall into the Kings lap!
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
I mean, if Johnny Davis precipitously falls to the 9th pick, you kinda have to take him lol
kb02
All-Star
Wish he had more of a shot. Otherwise, I see a lot of Harrison Barnes in his game. Solid.
I swear I'm not picking on you @Tetsujin but Johnny Davis is another guy I'm not really feeling this year. He reminds me of James Bouknight in last year's draft in that both of them supposedly project as three level scorers but their shooting splits indicate that they're not very efficient at any of them. AJ Griffin is a tough guy to project as well because his free throw rate is as bad as Buddy Hield's but at least I can see him fitting in as a spot-up shooter spacing the floor for Fox and Sabonis. I don't know how Johnny Davis fits on this team at all with that sky high usage rate and mediocre outside shot.
I'm with you on AJ Griffin. If we already had a Jabari Smith Jr type player then he would fit in perfect as a deadly outside threat but I don't think he moves the needle enough on this squad. I think they have to swing higher if there is a higher ceiling player available. I'm surprised that some mocks have him going 4-5. Solid player but I don't see a high enough ceiling to warrant picking him that high.
It's the playing for Duke exposure, most likely. He's a solid mid-lotto type of player on any other team. Although Bajaden has got him ranked quite high as well so maybe he'll check in with a different point of view. The shooting numbers are certainly enticing but I worry about players who don't have some kind of shot-creation ability in college. He's one of the players who could really elevate himself the most with a strong tournament showing though.
Yeah, this draft really is all over the place after the top 4. What's your 5-7 range look like if you're not a fan of Griffin/Davis?
I'm kind of all over the place myself. I'd probably go Mathurin, Murray, Davis and then Griffin. Mathurin seems like the safest bet but he may have a lower ceiling than Murray/Davis. The Kings really need their next player to hit a high ceiling and not just merely be a roleplayer.
I really like Keegan Murray's game but I was reading on realgm and someone posted this...
I would be very hesitant to take someone his age in the top 5. He'll be almost 22 on draft night, and this is the list from the last 20 years of guys who were over 21 yrs old and drafted in the top 5
kris dunn
thomas robinson
wesley johnson
evan turner
hasheem thabeet
al horford
adam morrison
shelden wiliams
raymond felton
emeka okafor
ben gordon
devin harris
dwyane wade
mike dunleavy
That's not the best list there but who knows if the list of players with that criteria taken 6-10 is completely different. Age does have a big factor though so we can't discount that. He's only in his second year but he'll basically be a senior's age when he's drafted.
Who do you have?
D Wade is on that list too and he was also a sophomore when he was drafted. ESPN just ranked him as the 30th best NBA player of all time. Being an older prospect shouldn't be a deal breaker, the question to ask for all of these players is whether the level of success they had in college will translate to the pro level or not. You never really know for sure but Murray isn't just a numbers guy, he looks phenomenal on tape to me. He's a really smart player. If I tried to make a mock draft I'd have Mathurin and Murray neck and neck in the 5th and 6th spots but on my own personal wishlist I think they're both equal to Ivey, Holmgren, Smith, and Banchero in terms of production and potential and that group is ahead of everyone else by a significant margin with Tari Eason coming closest to joining them.
I have
5.Davis
6.Murray
7.Griffin
8.Mathurin
I'm just getting super bullish on Davis's overall 2-way game. He's so advanced on the offensive end as a scorer with what I could only describe as "NBA Star" type of scoring moves. The term "3-level scorer" got thrown around so much last year towards Green and Bouknight especially, but I think it actually applies to what Davis has been doing this year. We haven't gotten to see a real off-ball game from him, but Wisconsin obviously needs him to handle the massive USG rate for them to win. I think his 3pt shooting could really sky-rocket when he's not the sole focus of defensive attention and gets some shots created for him. I'd be pretty excited how he could apply his offensive IQ to an off-ball role playing off Sabonis.
Defensively, he just works his ass off and is quite effective as an on and off ball defender. Moves extremely well laterally and is constantly fighting through screens to stay in front. I think that really speaks to his drive/motor, because a lot of the time, most of the top NCAA offensive players will coast on D to save their energy. That's what surprised me most when I started to watch; he's actually a really effective and willing defender.
Maybe a hot-take, but I've seen a lot more out of Davis than Green or Bouknight last year in terms of being a far more complete player with the defense/rebounding and being the better "3-level scorer" label then either guy. We've seen Green and Bouknight struggle with NBA physicality that Davis shouldn't have the same problem with. He's pretty clearly a 2, but he's a well-built 2 at 6'5 with what should be a positive wingspan by looking at him (can't find it anywhere online).
After those 4 there's a pretty large tier break too (in some order, haven't really nailed anything down yet)
Eason
Brown
Duren
Sochan
Ochai Agbaji
EJ Liddell (hot take alert?)
Kessler
Williams
Moore
I think Liddell is the Desmond Bane/Brandon Clarke/Herb Jones of this draft. He's gotten significantly better every season, he has an excellent 4 frame for the NBA (6'7/240/7'0 wingspan), he's developed as a dynamic rim protector and defender this year especially that works ridiculously hard on D. He's a good athlete that shouldn't have any problems stepping out on 4's and defending the perimeter. The offensive stats are silly good (30% USG, 59% TS, .490 FTr) and has gotten his 3pt shooting to a real appealing 37.5% on 3.7 attempts/game. There's growth potential too if he can keep developing his perimeter on-ball game that's shown flashes this season. I've seen some comps to Grant Williams, which seems pretty solid, but I like Liddell rim protection more and I like his offensive game to translate (especially if he can bring his shot) to the next level.
Eventually, teams will learn to ignore age with some of these prospects if the skill-set/talent is transferable to the NBA. It's one of the biggest edges left in talent evaluation imo.
It's not a deal breaker but it has to be taken into consideration. That list has some good names but you can't just pick out DWade and think that Murray is going to be a DWade outlier. Murray is a strange one. It's like his game is sort of outdated but not quite in your standard 90s PF outdated kind of way. He might not be able to stay in front of his man as good as some of the other players but he can catch up and get you blocks. His shooting is my biggest concern. 37% from 3 and 72% from the FT line basically means he's probably on the outside looking in as a 3pt shot maker in the NBA. His lack of assists is also a concern. On the other hand, he puts a ton of points on the board, rebounds and rarely ever turns the ball over, despite his high usage rate.
I like his brother's game too. He has somewhat similar strengths and weaknesses.
Davis is a wild card for me. I really like his game but if his 3pt shot doesn't come around, it'll be difficult to win with our current core. I'm seeing what you're seeing on the defensive end as well. He's not too cool to defend like many offensively talented players. The same issues can be seen with Murray as well. If he can score inside the arc but can't shoot very well, his skills are going to overlap with the players we already have and make the team easier to defend than need be. If these guys could shoot from the outside as well as continue their all around offensive development, then they could become a shooter when Fox and Sabonis have the ball and become the go to guy when they don't.
How come you have Griffin over Mathurin? If Griffin is the best shooter of the group, then Mathurin is 2nd with a wide gap between him and the other guys. I just feel like Mathurin has more of a multi dimensional game than Griffin. He would work well with Fox and Sabonis but could also maybe handle some of the load himself if those guys aren't on the floor. Griffin seems a bit more reliant on other players to make him look good. Neither are bad defenders but I do like Mathurin's defense a little more.
The only point I was trying to make is that if we filter out all older prospects that means missing on some really good players too. I don't think Keegan Murray is in any way comparable to Wade, I just don't think age is a criterion worth considering on its own unless/until a more direct correlation can be made between existing performance and eventual success in the NBA. That list has some good players on it, some notable busts, and a hall of famer. You could probably make a similar list of players at any age drafted in the top 5 -- there's just a larger sample size of younger players to sort through.
Age in particular isn't something I consider but I have always felt like Seniors putting up huge numbers should be looked at with suspicion because part of their success may be that they spent 4 years learning how to succeed in a league where there's significant turnover and top players usually only stay 1 or 2 years. If they are elite enough to be drafted in the lottery, why are they still in college in year 4? I want to have a good answer to that question if I'm committing a top 10 pick. Murray is a sophomore and there's already a long track record of players elevating their game in year 2 and then continuing to elevate it in the NBA. So that's where I lie on the issue. I like his skillset -- I think he has NBA quality offensive moves and enough defensive awareness to defend both wing positions. He's probably more of a Harrison Barnes replacement than compliment eventually, but that's a fit issue and I feel like that would work itself out anyway.
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