Playoff Update (Merged)
- Thread starter troosvelt
- Start date
Lakers remaining:
@ SA-L
Seattle - W
@ Sac - L
Minne - W
@ NJ - W/L
@ Cleveland - L
@ Boston - L
Sac- W/L
Milwaukee-W
NO-W/L
SA-L
@ Seattle - W
Houston - L
@ Den - L
@ Phx - L
Clippers - L
GS -W
Portland - W
Phoenix - L
NOK-W/L
Lakers go 8-12. We should make it with 44 wins and they have 40 wins. Maybe I'm just a fan. We could do better. Will see. They could do better as well. Houston is in trouble with that awful schedule and T-Mac hurt.
@ SA-L
Seattle - W
@ Sac - L
Minne - W
@ NJ - W/L
@ Cleveland - L
@ Boston - L
Sac- W/L
Milwaukee-W
NO-W/L
SA-L
@ Seattle - W
Houston - L
@ Den - L
@ Phx - L
Clippers - L
GS -W
Portland - W
Phoenix - L
NOK-W/L
Lakers go 8-12. We should make it with 44 wins and they have 40 wins. Maybe I'm just a fan. We could do better. Will see. They could do better as well. Houston is in trouble with that awful schedule and T-Mac hurt.
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Although I agree that at this point it is just one game at a time, I did want to post a new update.
Sorry for the delay but my new Nephew showed up Monday..
Right now my figures show the following projected 6/7/8/9 finish based on play to date.
#6 Memphis with 47-35 (They lead series 2-1 with 1 left)
#7 Los Angeles at 43-39 (Tied 1-1 with 2 left)
#8 New Orleans at 42-40 (They lead series 2-1 with 1 left)
#9 Sacramento at 41-41
With NO and Memphis the tiebreaker is possible for us, but not likely. Lakers better shot but still 50/50.
But I assume no tiebreaker which means we need 43 wins for #8, 44 wins for #7 and 48 wins for #6.
Just for reference if you average the last 6 seasons the 8 seed team had 44.5 wins, so 43 wins is maybe a little low.
To get #8 seed they need to go 13-8 or .619
To get #7 they need 14-7 or .666
To get #6 they need 18-3 or .857
Even for the most optimistic fan, .857 is a too high, so its down to the 7 or 8 seed now.
They have 11 home and 10 road games left.
Since the road trip went well, I think 6-4 is not out of reach for road, but much better probably is. One good road trip does not make up for a series of bad ones.
This means they need to win 7 or 8 of remaining home games. This seems plausable as it matches (more or less) current home record.
So if they play right, the 7 or 8 seed is VERY possible.
Of course then they see road series with Spurs or Suns, and that is pretty uphill.
But one step at a time
Sorry for the delay but my new Nephew showed up Monday..
Right now my figures show the following projected 6/7/8/9 finish based on play to date.
#6 Memphis with 47-35 (They lead series 2-1 with 1 left)
#7 Los Angeles at 43-39 (Tied 1-1 with 2 left)
#8 New Orleans at 42-40 (They lead series 2-1 with 1 left)
#9 Sacramento at 41-41
With NO and Memphis the tiebreaker is possible for us, but not likely. Lakers better shot but still 50/50.
But I assume no tiebreaker which means we need 43 wins for #8, 44 wins for #7 and 48 wins for #6.
Just for reference if you average the last 6 seasons the 8 seed team had 44.5 wins, so 43 wins is maybe a little low.
To get #8 seed they need to go 13-8 or .619
To get #7 they need 14-7 or .666
To get #6 they need 18-3 or .857
Even for the most optimistic fan, .857 is a too high, so its down to the 7 or 8 seed now.
They have 11 home and 10 road games left.
Since the road trip went well, I think 6-4 is not out of reach for road, but much better probably is. One good road trip does not make up for a series of bad ones.
This means they need to win 7 or 8 of remaining home games. This seems plausable as it matches (more or less) current home record.
So if they play right, the 7 or 8 seed is VERY possible.
Of course then they see road series with Spurs or Suns, and that is pretty uphill.
But one step at a time
I believe your "projections" are ignoring recent trends. For example, you project the Kings to finish 41-41 for the season. As of today we are 30-31, so you project an 11-10 finsh. I think that is highly pessimistic considering the recent trend of play the Kings have had. With 11 home games and 10 road games, I believe a safe and reasonable projection would give us an 8-3 home record and a 5-5 road record to finish the year (and that is safe mind you). That would put us at 43-39. Personally I believe that is good enough for the 7 seed. The Hornets trend shows them finishing below .500 for the year. The Lakers are so inconsistent that a 42-40 or 41-41 record sounds about right to me, giving them the 8 seed. (Utah or Houston could also come into play for 8 spot) You say that your 8 seed projections are based on an average of the last 6 years. That doesn't work in my mind because for the past 6 years the balance of power was so skewed to the west that there were just so many solid teams in the conference. The bottom half of the West is not nearly as good this year, and there is much more parity within the conference, aside from the top 3 (Spurs, Mavs, Suns).
The bottom line is this: If the Kings continue to play the way they have for the last 15 games or so, they will be a lock for the playoffs.
The bottom line is this: If the Kings continue to play the way they have for the last 15 games or so, they will be a lock for the playoffs.
Lakers at Spurs - Definitely see the Spurs winning. Back-to-back doesn't mean much when they're so deep and blew out the Nashless-Suns with ease last night, and are at home. Lakers also won't have their bench spark plug Devean George, who is out for a week.
Pacers at Hornets - Pacers bounce back from two /tough losses and go over NOK.
Tonight I think goes the Kings way (unlike a 2 or 3 of the previous).
Pacers at Hornets - Pacers bounce back from two /tough losses and go over NOK.
Tonight I think goes the Kings way (unlike a 2 or 3 of the previous).
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Great win for the Kings tonight!!
That said, to make the playoffs we are going to have to play well ,very well actually, from here on out. Looking at the remainder of the season, our schedule, vs. the schedules of the teams that we are fighting for a spot with, we have one of the toughest schedules....
Opponents winning %: (remainder of the season)
Kings 53.2%
Lakers 51.2%
Grizzlies 46.2%
Hornets 53.3%
Games against "elite teams" (defined as top 5 teams, by record, in the NBA)
Kings -4
Grizzlies -1
Lakers- 3
Hornets -4
Anyway, I'm not much of a stats person, but my husband is, so I thought I'd throw these out there.
GO KINGS!
That said, to make the playoffs we are going to have to play well ,very well actually, from here on out. Looking at the remainder of the season, our schedule, vs. the schedules of the teams that we are fighting for a spot with, we have one of the toughest schedules....
Opponents winning %: (remainder of the season)
Kings 53.2%
Lakers 51.2%
Grizzlies 46.2%
Hornets 53.3%
Games against "elite teams" (defined as top 5 teams, by record, in the NBA)
Kings -4
Grizzlies -1
Lakers- 3
Hornets -4
Anyway, I'm not much of a stats person, but my husband is, so I thought I'd throw these out there.
GO KINGS!
love_them_kings said:
Great win for the Kings tonight!!
That said, to make the playoffs we are going to have to play well ,very well actually, from here on out. Looking at the remainder of the season, our schedule, vs. the schedules of the teams that we are fighting for a spot with, we have one of the toughest schedules....
Opponents winning %: (remainder of the season)
Kings 53.2%
Lakers 51.2%
Grizzlies 46.2%
Hornets 53.3%
Games against "elite teams" (defined as top 5 teams, by record, in the NBA)
Kings -4
Grizzlies -1
Lakers- 3
Hornets -4
Anyway, I'm not much of a stats person, but my husband is, so I thought I'd throw these out there.
GO KINGS!
That said, to make the playoffs we are going to have to play well ,very well actually, from here on out. Looking at the remainder of the season, our schedule, vs. the schedules of the teams that we are fighting for a spot with, we have one of the toughest schedules....
Opponents winning %: (remainder of the season)
Kings 53.2%
Lakers 51.2%
Grizzlies 46.2%
Hornets 53.3%
Games against "elite teams" (defined as top 5 teams, by record, in the NBA)
Kings -4
Grizzlies -1
Lakers- 3
Hornets -4
Anyway, I'm not much of a stats person, but my husband is, so I thought I'd throw these out there.
GO KINGS!
Jazz just lost to Mavs! Jazz tried to comeback (looked like they were going to get the win w/ the Mavs starting out 0/6 in 4th) in 2nd half, but Dirk put a stop to that in the 4th. Jazz are now 1 1/2 games back of the Kings, and their next game is at Miami on Tuesday, beginning of a 4-game road trip, which also includes Magic/Hawks/Grizzlies. And you cannot say the middle two are sure wins.
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Tomorrow:
Rockets at Spurs: Spurs win and bounce back from a bad loss to the Lakers. Spurs will have more offense.
Sixers at Grizzlies: Grizz likely win after a tough loss to us..
Sonics at Lakers: Hopefully the Sonics win, they have a pretty good chance. But ultimately think the Lakers keep momentum from that Spurs win.
Nets at Hornets: Nets will be hungry after two losses to Kings/Bulls, along with time off. Nets win.
Rockets at Spurs: Spurs win and bounce back from a bad loss to the Lakers. Spurs will have more offense.
Sixers at Grizzlies: Grizz likely win after a tough loss to us..
Sonics at Lakers: Hopefully the Sonics win, they have a pretty good chance. But ultimately think the Lakers keep momentum from that Spurs win.
Nets at Hornets: Nets will be hungry after two losses to Kings/Bulls, along with time off. Nets win.
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