I'd be willing to bet that Larry Brown didn't want to foul because Kobe could feasibly get a 4-pt play and because Shaq could feasibly get a missed FT w/o inside position. All this stuff is conditional. Another thing in play is that if you don't foul soon enough, you now get 3 FTs as long as the guy is hit in the act.
Well, the Lakers inbounded the ball to Shaq, so there's a chance right away to send him to the line for two, and even if they get the rebound and a tip, you still have time for another possession.
You're right that all of this stuff is conditional. But in the case with the Laker game and with the Suns/Spurs game, I don't see why they wouldn't foul before a shot goes up.
And we're talking about world class athletes who should be able to hold up on fouling if they are going to potentially give up a four point play.