Ongoing draft/lottery discussion [OPEN SPOILERS]

[bajaden]

While most of us have our hearts set on Willie Cauley-Stein, what do we do if he goes before our pick, specifically to Magic at 5?!

Those guys love stacking up defensive, athletic players. Payton, Oladipo, Harkless, Gordon...etc. I have no doubt they will have strong interest in him, especially if Thibs ends up being their coach.

far be it for me to say who the Magic is going to pick, but choosing Cauley-Stein isn't logical. Right now they have a team made up of young, athletic, players that are mostly good defensive players. Their problem is that they can't score, not defend. Personally, if I'm them, I'm looking to add someone that can put the ball in the basket. If he can defend as well, so much the better. I think Winslow is more of a SG than he is a Sf, and they already have Oladipo there. Maybe Porzingis is the right fit for them. Athletic, with the tools to be a good defender, but also a good offensive player. There's going to be a lot of BS going around between now and the draft.

 

[Gilles]

I disagree with this. WCS has spent 3 years at Kentucky and he still has 0 offense aside from putbacks and dunks. His potential and ceiling is very limited.

Hezonja already possesses much more skills than Ben right now...... The only strengths Ben has on offense is knock down 3s and drive at a straight line speed. Ben has very poor handles which leads him to not being a very aggressive attacker. Opposite of Heoznja.

If Porzingis can add strength to his frame, he'll be a better player than WCS.

I don't think WCS has much untapped potential left... He'll be a very good defensive player, but he'll never be a 3pt shooter like Porzingis, nor will he ever be a consistent 15ppg scorer.

Did you read the first paragraph of my post?

The way Ben improved after 1 full off-season, I wouldn't put a cap on his abilities just yet.

Cal is great at mental preparation for NBA, skill development is not that high on his list of priorities.

Steve Kyler @stevekylerNBA https://twitter.com/stevekylerNBA/status/596400640055779329

No school in the country offers what IMG is to would-be pros

There are limits in how much a college player can work in a scheduled and structured way - especially with coaches

There are also limits on how much a school can provide in nutrition and equipment

In season - players allowed 20 hours per week with coaches no more than 4 hrs in one day - includes all activities

In the offseason college players only allowed 2 hours per week on the court.

I can't tell you how many pre-draft guys say they have never trained like this in their lives. Its specialized.

Let's wait 5 years then.

 

[Gary]

i
TODAY JT is a much better offensive player than WCS. That's the point. The fact that JT only had 6 pts and 5 shots a game is not evidence that WCS is going to do better than that. Just the opposite. Another consideration: If Karl is playing Gay more at the 4 in lieu of JT, what does that portend for the minutes that WCS presumably takes from JT? And does that dynamic lend support to the idea that the Kings would draft WCS? I don't have answers to those questions, but my inclination at this time is that given those facts, WCS might not be as much on the FO's radar screen as some believe.

????? You're trying to compare players as if they were the same. i.e. "player A scores 6 and rebounds 5 a game so player B must do the same if put in player A's position."

WCS isn't JT.. Different skillsets offensively and defensively. And the reason he was playing Gay at PF was because we were pretty thin up front.

Think of WCS like Joakim Noah.. Would you take him over JT? Do you think Noah would average better numbers than JT if he was our PF/C?

 

[bajaden]

Mario and Kristaps were playing basketball from very early age and moved to Spain at the age of 15 to attend basketball academies, where they concentrated on improving their skills. As far as skill development goes both are very far on their developmental curve. They naturally become better players as their bodies mature, but I wouldn't expect massive expansion of their skillsets.

College teams OTOH actually do not concentrate on player development, so guys, who show significant improvements year to year, likely have excellent work ethic, since they have to work on their own a lot.

So here's an outrageous thought: WCS at 22 y.o. has more untapped potential skillwise than both euros at 20. For the same reason I don't think Hezonja is going to be a much better player than Ben in 5 years. Mario's biggest advantage over Ben would be his size/length.

Porzingis is maturing/getting stronger and you can see it in many things: his FT rate almost doubled from last season, and went from atrocious to just below average as he's able to be more physical; he fouls less as he deals with physicality better; defensive rebounding rate risen from bad to average as he holds position better. At the same his percentages from the field and passing effectiveness stayed the same. So when I posted those block/PF numbers I implied, that Porzingis is a good shot-blocker, but is pretty far from elite ones coming out of Europe recently. As for physicality and body type he's nowhere near ready to deal with strength and quickness of NBA players, and when he bulks up, Kristaps might lose a step like Bargnani, Valanciunas and Motiejunas did.

P.S. Like my highlight mix of WCS better : out of all dunks I left only those, where he has to take steps or a dribble after catching, or where he makes a play near his team's basket, and then is the first to arrive on the other end.

Well, after deciding not to steal yours, I just went with what was the quickest. More of a refresher than anything else. I think my Bud, Uncia03 is going to put together a tape breakdown of Stein if we end up with him. He did a great job on Stauskas last year. So for now, I'll bow to your expertise.

 

[Gary]

I disagree with this. WCS has spent 3 years at Kentucky and he still has 0 offense aside from putbacks and dunks. His potential and ceiling is very limited.

Hezonja already possesses much more skills than Ben right now...... The only strengths Ben has on offense is knock down 3s and drive at a straight line speed. Ben has very poor handles which leads him to not being a very aggressive attacker. Opposite of Heoznja.

If Porzingis can add strength to his frame, he'll be a better player than WCS.

I don't think WCS has much untapped potential left... He'll be a very good defensive player, but he'll never be a 3pt shooter like Porzingis, nor will he ever be a consistent 15ppg scorer.

He's improved his jump shot and he's improved his FG% . Not to mention he stated he is going to spend the summer on his offensive game. He's going to be just fine. Not 20ppg or anything but he's going to be a good defensive player that can give you 10-14ppg.

 

[206Fan]

Did you read the first paragraph of my post?

The way Ben improved after 1 full off-season, I wouldn't put a cap on his abilities just yet.

Cal is great at mental preparation for NBA, skill development is not that high on his list of priorities.



Let's wait 5 years then.

I did, but I don't think them playing in Europe limits their ceiling. In Europe, they all get less than 15mpg at 15yearsold. Ben at 15 probably scored 30pts a game leading his HS team.

Ben has a huge potential, but I think Hezonja has a higher ceiling because his offense is already more further developed than Ben's.

I think you're right about Cal and it could either be a good or bad thing depending on how you look at it. I think he focuses on transitioning his players to the NBA and I do think it hurts their developments little since every player on Kentucky has a small defined role in games.

5 years from now will answer all of our Qs!

He's improved his jump shot and he's improved his FG% . Not to mention he stated he is going to spend the summer on his offensive game. He's going to be just fine. Not 20ppg or anything but he's going to be a good defensive player that can give you 10-14ppg.

WCS has showed very little shooting. His mechanics aren't the best either. His FT % is encouraging, but I don't think he'll ever be a good offensive player. Probably will develop a small hook shot in the NBA, but in college he lives off of dunks. His offense would be fine if we had CP3 on this team.

Offense is his biggest downside, but it shouldn't stop a team from drafting him. I really like him, but you're essentially drafting what you see...compared to someone like Turner.

 

[Gilles]

far be it for me to say who the Magic is going to pick, but choosing Cauley-Stein isn't logical. Right now they have a team made up of young, athletic, players that are mostly good defensive players. Their problem is that they can't score, not defend. Personally, if I'm them, I'm looking to add someone that can put the ball in the basket. If he can defend as well, so much the better. I think Winslow is more of a SG than he is a Sf, and they already have Oladipo there. Maybe Porzingis is the right fit for them. Athletic, with the tools to be a good defender, but also a good offensive player. There's going to be a lot of BS going around between now and the draft.

Listening to a few Magic podcasts (local guys without affiliation with Magic) this guys speculated both last year and this year, that Magic owner likes choir boys and Vucevic is their center for forseable future. Here's a small strike one against WCS in Orlando. Later in the draft process it became known, that Hennigan was after PF at #4. Most thought, it was going to be Vonleh though, but it turned out Gordon was the choice, so here's another small strike against. Tobias Harris is a combo-forward, who is about to be paid a lot of money, so PF position is even more jammed. Finally, Orlando have backcourt, that can barely shoot. At this moment Knicks might be a bigger threat, since they could use everyone. I mean, everyone...Sorry, too lazy to look for that Gary Oldman clip from Leon.

 

[IfAt1st]

This one?

 

[206Fan]

This one?

that is a very disturbing gif!

 

[hrdboild]

far be it for me to say who the Magic is going to pick, but choosing Cauley-Stein isn't logical. Right now they have a team made up of young, athletic, players that are mostly good defensive players. Their problem is that they can't score, not defend. Personally, if I'm them, I'm looking to add someone that can put the ball in the basket. If he can defend as well, so much the better. I think Winslow is more of a SG than he is a Sf, and they already have Oladipo there. Maybe Porzingis is the right fit for them. Athletic, with the tools to be a good defender, but also a good offensive player. There's going to be a lot of BS going around between now and the draft.

Porzingis, Hezonja, Turner, or Kaminsky all seem like logical choices. They need to get a shooter who can play SF or PF some of the time and all four of those guys would fit the bill. Turner is maybe more of a C than a PF, but I can see him impressing people in a workout setting and pushing his way up the draft board. They might also fall in love with Winslow or Johnson -- both of those guys fit the hardworking team-player mold they've stuck to in the past and they do need depth at SF/SG whether Tobias stays or not. I agree that it seems unlikely they scoop up a specialized defensive big like Cauley-Stein considering who they already have on their roster. I would also say that Mudiay is a long shot since they just invested a year grooming Elfrid Payton for the PG spot. But then, NBA teams don't always make logical choices.

 

[hrdboild]

The ProBasketballTalk mock has Mudiay dropping to us (Knicks taking Winslow, Magic taking WCS). You guys all in on Mudiay? Is he the real deal PG of the future? Or do you trade down/out in that case?

I really like Mudiay. There's not a lot of buzz around him either relative to the rest of the top 5, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the guy who slips to 6. I'm a little conflicted right now whether I like Mudiay or Stanley Johnson more, but if we draft either one of them I would be thrilled. At #6 that's really my best-case scenario. Johnson is going to be a great backup SF/SG sometime soon and eventually replace Rudy in the starting lineup I think. Same thing with Mudiay -- he'll be a great backup PG and SG who'll eventually replace Collison as the starting PG. Both of them would bring toughness and defensive versatility to our lineup right away and they could develop into true two-way stars in a few years and excellent compliments to Cousins in the starting lineup. With the salary cap ballooning like crazy over the next couple years, we'll have other opportunities to improve at PF so it's not like this has to be Cauley-Stein or bust for us.

Speaking of which, I know I'm in the minority here with regards to Cauley-Stein -- I would only pick him if Mudiay and Johnson are both off the board. Also, I'd strongly consider taking Turner over WCS too because his ceiling is so high and his skillset helps us on both sides of the floor (floor-spacing and pick-and-roll versatility on offense, shot-blocking and rebounding on defense). So yeah, I'd love to pick Mudiay but I wouldn't be crushed if he's gone and we get Stanley Johnson either and I certainly wouldn't trade down no matter what. More likely both of them are still on the board and we pick someone else or trade down. But so it goes. I'm not that stressed about it.

EDIT -- How about this as a draft strategy... if Mudiay and Johnson are both on the board at #6, trade Collison to Denver for the #7 pick and take them both. We still have Andre Miller and Ray McCallum for depth at PG and we get to add two starters to our roster with All-Star potential down the line. I know, I know. Trading Collison for Mudiay could backfire and we're not getting the immediate help we need to win next year. But we could also sign (gasp) Rondo in the off-season to help our prospects next year while we groom our young studs for the future. I get a little crazy around draft time.

 

[LPKingsFan]

EDIT -- How about this as a draft strategy... if Mudiay and Johnson are both on the board at #6, trade Collison to Denver for the #7 pick and take them both. We still have Andre Miller and Ray McCallum for depth at PG and we get to add two starters to our roster with All-Star potential down the line. I know, I know. Trading Collison for Mudiay could backfire and we're not getting the immediate help we need to win next year. But we could also sign (gasp) Rondo in the off-season to help our prospects next year while we groom our young studs for the future. I get a little crazy around draft time.

Wait, you think Denver trades #7 for Collison? Why?

 

[hrdboild]

Wait, you think Denver trades #7 for Collison? Why?

I don't know that they would, but it doesn't seem impossible for many of the same reasons I would hate trading Collison and/or our pick for Ty Lawson. Collison is much cheaper, a better defender, and a better outside shooter than their current PG. He's only 27 and signed for 2 more years at 5 million per which has to be one of the best value contracts in the league. If Lawson is going to force his way out of Denver anyway, they're going to need somebody to play PG next year and Collison was very good as a starter this year. Remember New Orleans had to trade two first round picks to get Jrue Holiday and his $41 million dollar contract a couple years ago. A solid NBA starter on a bargain basement deal for a #7 pick isn't a bad trade, all things considered. It's the kind of deal we've been talking about for our 5th-8th overall pick basically every year after all. I'm not even sure I want to trade Collison under any circumstance, but if I did trade him it would have to be for 4 years of a rookie PG that I believe in.

 

[gunks]

I'd rather try to ship out one of Nik or Ben for a pick. DC is underrated in these parts.

I'm with those who want to keep it simple though. Snatch WCS, Winslow, or Johnson with #6 and call it a night.

 

[jcassio]

i
TODAY JT is a much better offensive player than WCS. That's the point. The fact that JT only had 6 pts and 5 shots a game is not evidence that WCS is going to do better than that. Just the opposite. Another consideration: If Karl is playing Gay more at the 4 in lieu of JT, what does that portend for the minutes that WCS presumably takes from JT? And does that dynamic lend support to the idea that the Kings would draft WCS? I don't have answers to those questions, but my inclination at this time is that given those facts, WCS might not be as much on the FO's radar screen as some believe.

For me, JT symbolizes the underachieving Kings teams he's been a part of since his rookie season.
He had potential. But he only managed to become a journeyman. Potential no more.
JT is who he is. Nothing more and nothing less.
But - anyone who is a 2015 lottery draft pick at least has potential. Until they prove otherwise.

 

[Entity]

I figure I'd put my 5 cents in

1. If Ben continues on his improvement the way he did last year I want him to stay.

2. WCS is a valuable asset that any contending team would want. Lets get him then contend instead of searching later.

3. I'd like to see what moreland has to offer as a 4th big.

4. My trading block consist of ( in order of most expendable) Landry, Nik, Ray, Collison, JT( if we get 3rd big). The rest I'd like to keep.

5. Resign Casspi or Williams not both. Let that backup position become a valuable role. Then get young SF undrafted or whatever to sit bench and learn. Unless of course you get 7th pick and take winslowe

 

[Bricklayer]

I'd rather try to ship out one of Nik or Ben for a pick. DC is underrated in these parts.

I'm with those who want to keep it simple though. Snatch WCS, Winslow, or Johnson with #6 and call it a night.

Collison is a very solid vet for a franchise with few of them. If we're serious about turning this next year, he's part of the solution, not the problem. Not going to carry you, but we don't need him to. You get 5 or 6 guys of that caliber, then you win. Last year we had 3 and they were screwed with and hurt and sick and everything else. Give me 3 more players of Collison's caliber out of this offseason, scatter them about the frontcourt and backcourt, decent health, and we'll win.

 

[randymoss1881]

I'd rather try to ship out one of Nik or Ben for a pick. DC is underrated in these parts.

I'm with those who want to keep it simple though. Snatch WCS, Winslow, or Johnson with #6 and call it a night.

If we are trading Ben/Nik we better be targeting a vet.

 

[lawlman91]

Ben/Nik, if it weren't for the fact that they play the same position, I would consider them untouchable projects. It would be O.K. to let one of them go, but I'm still hesitant about it. I still have hope for these 2 players. We know that Nik has the will to win, but this summer will determine whether or not he has the will to prepare to win by becoming more athletic and more of a defender coming into next year. My hope for him hinges on both the results and effort he put in, with a bit more emphasis on the effort. If the effort is there but the results are not as much as we would like, then he'd be a solid role-player. I have yet to determine how I can see how much effort he put into this off-season. Nik's offense is more like what we expected it to be towards the end of the year, so that's good news. Ben has already shown that he puts in effort and that his hard work pays off in results. We know that his improvement on defense is a matter of effort, but his improvement on offense... that might be more a matter of confidence and less about work. One thing that Ben needs to learn in this off-season is to learn how to finish at the rim. I don't think he needs to learn ball-handling as much as finishing at the rim and hitting floaters, since he naturally plays off the ball. The above said, I'm hesitant at moving them this off-season. Depending on their results/effort, they could be traded after the season begins and before the trade deadline of next season. That seems like a reasonable option.

 

[gunks]

While I agree that both Nik and Ben still have the potential to become pretty good players, I think if the right deal comes along we shouldn't hesitate to ship one out, for the sake of balancing the roster if nothing else.

We can gamble (again) and hope that one of those guys is ready to start and the other is ready to contribute off of the bench, but I would be much happier if we get ourselves a solid vet SG. But if we get that SG, there is going to be a major minutes crunch (unless we go small and give Ben/Nik some burn at the 3). Someone is going to be the odd man out and that will hurt both development and trade value of said prospect.

We either develop them both and hurt the team, or vice versa. While Nik is an intriguing prospect, it was completely asinine to draft back to back SGs for this reason, especially with Payton there for the taking... There were a lot of rumors that PDA was trying to ship Ben out to get us either Smart or Rondo on draft day, but we all know how that went.

Now, all that being said, we shouldn't just GIVE them away.... But if some team is sitting at 10, and BPA is an SF (Johnson?) or a PF/C (Kaminsky? Turner?) and what they really need is a guard, PDA *ahem - my bad* Vlade, should pick up the phone and call...

 

[rainmaker]

Ben/Nik, if it weren't for the fact that they play the same position, I would consider them untouchable projects. It would be O.K. to let one of them go, but I'm still hesitant about it.

I wouldn't be surprised if both of them took a huge step next year. Also wouldn't be surprised if neither did.

But the reality is as soon as we drafted Nik, one of Nik or Ben became expendable. If there's any confidence they both pan out, one has to be moved. We essentially drafted Nik to trade either he or Ben.

And honestly, I don't know which one to keep as I don't know what roster we'll have in a year or two. I want an upgrade at point. I want an upgrade at PF. Will Rudy still be here or will he be moved as our most valuable trade piece outside Cuz? I don't know what the FO is thinking. Way too many moving parts.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

we shouldn't just GIVE them away.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

I figure I'd put my 5 cents in

1. If Ben continues on his improvement the way he did last year I want him to stay.

2. WCS is a valuable asset that any contending team would want. Lets get him then contend instead of searching later.

3. I'd like to see what moreland has to offer as a 4th big.

4. My trading block consist of ( in order of most expendable) Landry, Nik, Ray, Collison, JT( if we get 3rd big). The rest I'd like to keep.

5. Resign Casspi or Williams not both. Let that backup position become a valuable role. Then get young SF undrafted or whatever to sit bench and learn. Unless of course you get 7th pick and take winslowe

y in the world would we bring williams the tweener highlight film back.

 

[Albatros]

I'd move Ben. I don't think he'll ever be what you want him to be.

 

[jdbraver]

While I agree that both Nik and Ben still have the potential to become pretty good players, I think if the right deal comes along we shouldn't hesitate to ship one out, for the sake of balancing the roster if nothing else.

We can gamble (again) and hope that one of those guys is ready to start and the other is ready to contribute off of the bench, but I would be much happier if we get ourselves a solid vet SG. But if we get that SG, there is going to be a major minutes crunch (unless we go small and give Ben/Nik some burn at the 3). Someone is going to be the odd man out and that will hurt both development and trade value of said prospect.

We either develop them both and hurt the team, or vice versa. While Nik is an intriguing prospect, it was completely asinine to draft back to back SGs for this reason, especially with Payton there for the taking... There were a lot of rumors that PDA was trying to ship Ben out to get us either Smart or Rondo on draft day, but we all know how that went.

Now, all that being said, we shouldn't just GIVE them away.... But if some team is sitting at 10, and BPA is an SF (Johnson?) or a PF/C (Kaminsky? Turner?) and what they really need is a guard, PDA *ahem - my bad* Vlade, should pick up the phone and call...

Honestly Ben/nik trade value is late first round or second round. That's about it.

 

[lawlman91]

I will suggest that we might already have our vet "SG" in Casspi; he wants to return to Sacramento.

Collison/McCallum/Miller/(Stauskas?)
Casspi/McLemore/Stauskas
Gay/Casspi/Stauskas
WCS/Thompson
Cousins/Thompson

 

[Gilles]

http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VVy8hSYAACIAzd4W/ten-little-things-from-conference-finals-game-1s

CLINT CAPELA’S SURPRISING FOOT SPEED

Clint Capela had a great Game 1, recording 9 points on 4-of-4 shooting from the field, a steal, a block, and a wonderful touch pass to Prigioni that showed off Capela’s basketball IQ. The most interesting aspect of his game may have been his ability to switch and stay in front of smaller guards, which bodes well for the future considering the type of positionless defense teams are playing more and more.

Capela recorded 8 switches on pick-and-rolls in Game 1, and on those possessions, the Warriors managed to score only 6 points. In six of those possessions, Capela was the primary defender on the ball when the shot was taken, and he allowed only one score (miracle heave by Curry at the end of the first half). Thompson was 0 for 2, Curry 1 for 3, and Iguodala 0 of 1.

If Clint Capela can be effective in WCF, then so will be WCS.

 

[jdbraver]

I will suggest that we might already have our vet "SG" in Casspi; he wants to return to Sacramento.

Collison/McCallum/Miller/(Stauskas?)
Casspi/McLemore/Stauskas
Gay/Casspi/Stauskas
WCS/Thompson
Cousins/Thompson

You mean our back-up SF

 

[Kingster]

Collison is a very solid vet for a franchise with few of them. If we're serious about turning this next year, he's part of the solution, not the problem. Not going to carry you, but we don't need him to. You get 5 or 6 guys of that caliber, then you win. Last year we had 3 and they were screwed with and hurt and sick and everything else. Give me 3 more players of Collison's caliber out of this offseason, scatter them about the frontcourt and backcourt, decent health, and we'll win.

Collison may not be part of the problem of the Kings losing as much as they did, but that doesn't prevent him from being part of the solution by trading him for an upgrade. If you can upgrade the pg position by including Collison in the deal, why not? I don't see how anybody can make these carte blanch statements without knowing the player received by the Kings in the trade. It's like saying I don't want to sell my house, but not knowing there is an offer out there for 2x its worth.

 

[Kingster]

I wouldn't be surprised if both of them took a huge step next year. Also wouldn't be surprised if neither did.

But the reality is as soon as we drafted Nik, one of Nik or Ben became expendable. If there's any confidence they both pan out, one has to be moved. We essentially drafted Nik to trade either he or Ben.

And honestly, I don't know which one to keep as I don't know what roster we'll have in a year or two. I want an upgrade at point. I want an upgrade at PF. Will Rudy still be here or will he be moved as our most valuable trade piece outside Cuz? I don't know what the FO is thinking. Way too many moving parts.

What does your gut tell you? Is this off-season going to be a fairly radical remake, including possibly the trading of Gay or Collison, or is it going to be one in which there are a couple of additions (a draft pick and FA) and a couple of subtractions? The question that underlies so much discussion on this board is: How much personnel change needs to occur to get to .500 or above? And that goal is fairly timid. The real question everybody wants to know is: How much personnel change needs to occur to get into the playoffs?