Monroe, Aldrich, or Johnson?

[Chupacabra]

Aminu's upside is far from Deng. Deng would probably be Aminu's worst case scenario. Id say Aminu's upside is more like Paul Pierce. One thing is for sure about Aminu, he can get to the basket.

 

[gunks]

I went with Aldrich.

Dude rebounds, plays good D. Basically the 5 we've always wanted.



We all know GP is going with Monroe though.

 

[fnordius]

So I was listening to Reynolds this morning on 1140 and he said there could be a "surprise" player that they pick. So, he had already talked about Cousins, Johnson, and Monroe; therefore, I'm assuming they are off his "surprise" list. Who would be the "surprise"?

Well, since he's only talked about the guys likeliest to go by #4, anybody who we could get at #5 would be a "surprise." But I think the FO is planning on a surprise anyway, i.e., is unlikely to tell us anything very useful before the draft. With the obvious guys likely to be off the boards, the FO needs to do its best to find a guy farther down the list who is undervalued. They may not have any idea who that guy is yet, and when/if they think they've found one, they'd be morons to talk about it.

So I'm expecting nothing more than unreliable and conflicting rumors from this point forward.

Now it's just a matter of whether or not the surprise pans out. There WILL be good players going after #4, hopefully the FO can figure out who those are.

 

[dmj]

I don't see why anyone would take Johnson over Aminu after looking at this past year's numbers and considering that Johnson is 3 years older than Aminu.

Aminu
19 So.

18.9 PPG 44%FG
12.8 RPG
1.6 APG
1.7 SPG
1.7 BPG
3.8 TPG

Johnson
22 RS Jr.

17.8 PPG 50%FG
9.2 RPG
2.4 APG
1.8 SPG
2.0 BPG
2.5 TPG

Johnson shoots better and is less turnover prone, but he averages about 4 rebounds less per game than Aminu, who, as far as I can tell, is one of the best rebounding SF prospects in at least the last decade.


Honestly, I think Aminu has every bit the upside that the consensus top 4 guys have, if not more.

 

[Vlade4GM]

You searched out something to disagree with. Aminu's defense is a large part of the skill set he brings, and his shot blocking is a large part of that. I'm not trying to argue whether or not your primary shotblocker should be your SF I'm saying he brings it. Call it a novelty if you want, but when he's disrupting the other team's offense with it I doubt they consider it such.

And Johnson I see as just getting swept around anywhere near the paint. He may get blocks from helping or on perimeter but stronger guys on the NBA are just going to shrug him off. To block shots you have to get and maintain position. On the ball I see Aminu as a much better SF defender at the NBA level.

I'm not arguing that he won't be a better defender than Johnson, it's just Aminu's shot blocking ability is not that apparent. Especially when his numbers really don't bare a knack for shot blocking.

 

[bajaden]

Monroe or trade down to get Bledsoe.

Why in god's name would you trade down to get Bledsoe. We need a big man. The draft is loaded with big men, and you want to trade down to draft and undersized guard. Bledsoe has no pt guard skills. ZERO!!!! He's a shooting guard, with and inconsistant outside shot, thats probably around 6'1". I wouldn't draft him with our second round pick at this point.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I don't see why anyone would take Johnson over Aminu after looking at this past year's numbers and considering that Johnson is 3 years older than Aminu.

Aminu
19 So.

18.9 PPG 44%FG
12.8 RPG
1.6 APG
1.7 SPG
1.7 BPG
3.8 TPG

Johnson
22 RS Jr.

17.8 PPG 50%FG
9.2 RPG
2.4 APG
1.8 SPG
2.0 BPG
2.5 TPG

Johnson shoots better and is less turnover prone, but he averages about 4 rebounds less per game than Aminu, who, as far as I can tell, is one of the best rebounding SF prospects in at least the last decade.


Honestly, I think Aminu has every bit the upside that the consensus top 4 guys have, if not more.

Johnson has perimeter skills that easily fit a SF. Aminu does not, banking on him learning them is a gamble, you can't just assume that it's not a gamble whether he'll learn them because he's younger and may have more upside.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Why in god's name would you trade down to get Bledsoe. We need a big man. The draft is loaded with big men, and you want to trade down to draft and undersized guard. Bledsoe has no pt guard skills. ZERO!!!! He's a shooting guard, with and inconsistant outside shot, thats probably around 6'1". I wouldn't draft him with our second round pick at this point.

While I agree it would be silly to trade down for Bledsoe, I don't agree with your take on Bledsoe.

I think he has untapped PG skills that were hidden at Kentucky because he was forced to play out of position and wasn't given enough consistent run at the pt. For whatever it's worth, his PG skills were much more lauded coming out of HS. His shot is streaky, but there's no reason to think he can't improve on that eventually. He's Mario Chalmers like IMO, and Chalmers would be a great fit next to Evans.

 

[Sparky6string]

I'm not arguing that he won't be a better defender than Johnson, it's just Aminu's shot blocking ability is not that apparent. Especially when his numbers really don't bare a knack for shot blocking.

Fair enough, and my opinion is that he will be a better shot blocker than Johnson at the pro level. Also he's just got a big body to keep between himself and his defender, so really it's more than just shot blocking I'm thinking of with him. It great that he provides that at the SF position, and since we can't get that out of our bigs I'll take it any way I can.

Despite that though I still am leaning toward Johnson- he's just so much more polished. Also I think he has an exciting looking game, it's only when I think of him guarding the Carmello Anthonys and the bigger SFs that I start to have second thoughts.

And sorry for getting defensive earlier.

 

[Kingster]

Well, since he's only talked about the guys likeliest to go by #4, anybody who we could get at #5 would be a "surprise." But I think the FO is planning on a surprise anyway, i.e., is unlikely to tell us anything very useful before the draft. With the obvious guys likely to be off the boards, the FO needs to do its best to find a guy farther down the list who is undervalued. They may not have any idea who that guy is yet, and when/if they think they've found one, they'd be morons to talk about it.

So I'm expecting nothing more than unreliable and conflicting rumors from this point forward.

Now it's just a matter of whether or not the surprise pans out. There WILL be good players going after #4, hopefully the FO can figure out who those are.

I had the distinct impression Reynolds had a particular player in mind, not a generic surprise. We will see.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Doesn't Reynolds always like to act like he/Kings have something up their sleeve?

 

[Warhawk]

I had the distinct impression Reynolds had a particular player in mind, not a generic surprise. We will see.

Agreed, and he said something about not naming any names. Gave the impression they had one player they wanted to evaluate further that seemed to be projected lower in the draft.

 

[Kingster]

Doesn't Reynolds always like to act like he/Kings have something up their sleeve?

Well, he did last year with Tyreke. He told Napear way before the draft about his interest in him. So, I wouldn't doubt he has one guy that intrigues him.

 

[Sparky6string]

Johnson has perimeter skills that easily fit a SF. Aminu does not, banking on him learning them is a gamble, you can't just assume that it's not a gamble whether he'll learn them because he's younger and may have more upside.

Right it's not just the stats but where and how they come. Upside? Sure Aminu probably has more but that's when I think of that bird in the hand is worth two in the bush saying.

It's tempting to suggest trading up or down in this draft and I've suggested it myself but I don't think it's a good idea anymore and here is why- we really don't know who will fall from what we view as the top 4, and if none do then we control our own destiny from what's left rather than hope the pick we want falls to us. If it's true like many have said that the talent level from 5 to 10 or more is around the same then wouldn't it be better to have more to choose from than less? There is no consensus on draft order of the first 4 picks, so who knows how it's going to go after those. Trading down in the draft to go for a certain player is not advisable since that player may well be gone by then.

I see some saying that drafting Aldrich before the 20 spot is a waste, yet some mock drafts have him as high as 6 or maybe higher. Trading down is a genuine gamble, and trading up may not do us any good since the player we want just may be available at that spot anyway.

 

[sdballer]

Agreed, and he said something about not naming any names. Gave the impression they had one player they wanted to evaluate further that seemed to be projected lower in the draft.

DANGER! DANGER! DANGER!

Play that surprise reach game when you're drafting in the mid-teens, not at number five. I really hope the Kings don't waste this pick. If you want some guy no one is thinking about in the top 10, trade down and pick up something else of value. Now, this is just company guy Jerry talking, but it's been my biggest fear ever since we slipped out of the consensus 4.

 

[sdballer]

Right it's not just the stats but where and how they come. Upside? Sure Aminu probably has more but that's when I think of that bird in the hand is worth two in the bush saying.

It's tempting to suggest trading up or down in this draft and I've suggested it myself but I don't think it's a good idea anymore and here is why- we really don't know who will fall from what we view as the top 4, and if none do then we control our own destiny from what's left rather than hope the pick we want falls to us. If it's true like many have said that the talent level from 5 to 10 or more is around the same then wouldn't it be better to have more to choose from than less? There is no consensus on draft order of the first 4 picks, so who knows how it's going to go after those. Trading down in the draft to go for a certain player is not advisable since that player may well be gone by then.

I see some saying that drafting Aldrich before the 20 spot is a waste, yet some mock drafts have him as high as 6 or maybe higher. Trading down is a genuine gamble, and trading up may not do us any good since the player we want just may be available at that spot anyway.

You can make the trade after the first 4 when you know who's left at 5. If your guy is there, great. If not, hopefully you've done a little work prior to the draft to see who lower down is ready to play.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Right it's not just the stats but where and how they come. Upside? Sure Aminu probably has more but that's when I think of that bird in the hand is worth two in the bush saying.

It's tempting to suggest trading up or down in this draft and I've suggested it myself but I don't think it's a good idea anymore and here is why- we really don't know who will fall from what we view as the top 4, and if none do then we control our own destiny from what's left rather than hope the pick we want falls to us. If it's true like many have said that the talent level from 5 to 10 or more is around the same then wouldn't it be better to have more to choose from than less? There is no consensus on draft order of the first 4 picks, so who knows how it's going to go after those. Trading down in the draft to go for a certain player is not advisable since that player may well be gone by then.

I see some saying that drafting Aldrich before the 20 spot is a waste, yet some mock drafts have him as high as 6 or maybe higher. Trading down is a genuine gamble, and trading up may not do us any good since the player we want just may be available at that spot anyway.

Well, we'd just wait until the draft to make the trade. We'd see what's on the board at our pick and either decide to take someone to keep or take someone with a tentative trade in place.

 

[bajaden]

greg monroe has petrie written all over him... i have a feeling he will test out more athletic than all these articles claim...

i think his upside is amare stoudemire level

No he won't! Trust me on that one...

 

[Peter_Gibbons]

Sportscenter guys seem to think that the sixers may go with Johnson over turner which i find very hard to believe. They seem to think he's a better fit for that team. I partially see their point since turner may not mesh with iggy since he lacks outside shooting(at the moment) and I'd like to think they'd like to unload iggys salary but that won't be easy. At the end of the day though, you just don't pass on a guy like turner for a guy like Johnson. I'm praying they do though

For whatever reason, a lot of mock drafts and writers seems to be very high on Wesley Johnson. While he was around #6-#8 in most initial mock drafts, he has been bumped up to #4 in many mocks. If he works out well with teams, I would not be suprised at all to see him go in the top 3. Remember, guys like Derrick Favors has a lot of potential but is still raw. If GMs don't like his workouts/interviews etc, he can drop a couple spots while more experienced players like Johnson sneaks up.

At this point, I don't even know if Cousins is a sure top 5 pick even if he slips down to us. The comparisons to Eddy Curry is just scary. I mean these writers are wrong a lot of times, but its a fine line between a star and a bust like Curry.

 

[Sparky6string]

You can make the trade after the first 4 when you know who's left at 5. If your guy is there, great. If not, hopefully you've done a little work prior to the draft to see who lower down is ready to play.

That would be the only trade situation I would want- we need more info first.

 

[bajaden]

I am the same......but I dunno I "like" Bledsoe, Anderson and Henry.

Bledsoe: Great athlete with very few skills. Can handle the ball fairly well but has trouble finishing at the basket. His outside shot is very inconsistant. And he's not a very good passer. He turned the ball over at a 25% rate per possession. He has no point guard skills at present and should have stayed in school.

James Anderson: Very good outside shooter. One of the best scorers in college last year. He's a volume shooter. Not a great ballhandler, or passer, but decent. He would be a great player for a team needing a spot up shooter.

Xavior Henry: I think he will eventually be the better of the three players. Very smooth athlete, but not a great athlete. Good basketball IQ and lets the game come to him. Seldom forces a bad shot. Just a good all around player that will get better and better. He also has an NBA body, and defended well.

Personally I'm not interested in any of these guys at the 5th pick. We need a big man.

 

[bajaden]

I puke a little in my mouth when I think of any of them. This sucks.

After you done puking, maybe you can explain why.

 

[bajaden]

No one outside of Wall, Turner, Favors, or Cousins is a difference makers, so who cares?

I will bet you dinner at the resturant of you choice that at least one, if not two players that are picked below the 4 spot will end up being stars in the league. And my friend, thats a safe bet for me..

 

[bajaden]

Exactly, which is why we need to just go crazy with our pick and just randomly draft someone.

What college does someone play for...?

 

[bajaden]

At 5 Petrie needs to consider who has the highest ceiling and the work ethic to reach it. I'd want to see if there remains a Robin to Reke's Batman. For me this spells A-M-I-N-U. He's 19, approx 6-9, has elite athleticism and a freakish wingspan, and could very well develop into an elite defender. Draftexpress reports he's working like a mad-man on his shooting, which I love to hear, but this part of his game (along w/ ability to create off the dribble) would require patience. My bottom line: draft the BPA and sort the rest out later.

Johnson is nice but at 22 I question his upside. Monroe doesn't fit this teams direction IMHO. Aldrich fits areas of need but lacks the upside you want at the 5th pick. There are others, but upside/attitude concerns seem to prevail in most cases.

Now I completely understand that many fans don't believe that SF is an area of need, relative to say SG and/or C, but when your team has the third worst record in the league--well you're not exactly in "cherry-on-top" mode. And this team has the versatile young pieces to accomodate a player like Aminu. For example, Donte Greene started at the 2 early this season and can certainly log time at that position, as can Reke, Garcia, and Udrih. So I'm not conserned w/ filling up minutes at the 2.

Down low is a different story. Drafting Aminu wont solve the Kings low post defensive woes, which may have to wait until next draft or 2011 free agency. That said, Hawes and Thompson continue to develop and I'm banking (although probably foolishly) on Hawes addressing his weaknesses this offseason, as this is a contract year and I think the kid's a greedy bastard. He'll never be a defensive presence, but perhaps the possibility of earning a decent paycheck will motivate him to exert effort more consistently (both in preseason and the season itself). Perhaps the Kings select a defensive-minded role player like Varnando at 33 who can contribute in the meantime and possibly stick around if he can significantly improve.

Sample depth chart:

Evans/Udrih
Greene/Garcia
Aminu/Casspi/(Nocioni)
Landry/Brockman
Hawes/Thompson/Varnando

Maybe not the most complimentary unit, but a well-thought-out trade could immediately resolve that. My main point is philosophical: I hope Petrie acquires who he considers the BPA regardless of position and work the rest out later. No matter how much we all hoped for it, the likelihood of the Kings being world-killers NEXT season was slim-to-none. True rebuilds take time and a true rebuild is what Petrie appears to be orchestrating.

The only flaw in your logic might be as to who is the best player available. You might get some disagreement in that area.

 

[bajaden]

Wes Johnson seems to be a smaller version of Donte Greene referring to their stats in college.

Not even close. Johnson is ten times more polished than Greene was coming out of college. He's also a better athlete than Greene is. He's a better rebounder that Greene. Sorry, its not even in the same ball park. He's a better player right now than Greene is.. However, I still don't want him. We Don't Need Another Small Forward!!!!!!!

 

[fnordius]

For whatever reason, a lot of mock drafts and writers seems to be very high on Wesley Johnson... The comparisons (between Cousins and) Eddy Curry is just scary.

That could be part of why Johnson's been going up in some mocks, too. He's older than most of the competition, but he's got some skill, and there's basically nothing wrong with him. Once you run out of megatalented freaks who don't have red flags, the players who are pretty good and have nothing wrong with them start looking a lot better.

With later picks, the odds of suffering from the NBA equivalent of beer goggles starts getting very high, and a safe (if somewhat blah) pick may appeal to a lot of GMs.

 

[bajaden]

My problem with Monroe is that he's not a sure enough bet to be a high quality go-to scorer and high rebounder to justify the lack of defense. I'd almost rather take Motiejunas if we want an offensive big and don't care about post defense.

Epke Udoh! Write down the name... And to be clear. Monroe is not that good a rebounder, although he did improve this year. He's still a solely lefthanded player that goes predominately over his right shoulder.

My problem with Monroe is that he just reminds me too much of what we already have in Hawes. He can play in the post, but he'd rather be out at the top of the key. Like Hawes, he's a good passer and he shoots well from out there. I think he can be a decent post player, but I also think its just not in his makeup to want to be there. I'll take both Aldrich or Udoh over Monroe. Both those guys can play defense and rebound. And with Udoh you get the added bonus of his being a decent offensive player. Plus both Aldrich and Udoh are better athlete's than Monroe.

 

[bajaden]

So according to this blog: http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2010/5/14/1472541/2010-nba-draft-combine-participant the combine is today and tomorrow? Is this true?

The combine is being televised by NBA TV. The coverage starts at 12 noon thursday and runs through sunday. Its on twice on thursday and then on three times on friday, saturday, and then twice on sunday again. I don't know if every telecast is new or if some are repeats,

 

[bajaden]

I dunno but I wonder if there is any coverage.

Anyone think Solomon Alabi will be available for our 2nd rnd pick?

Nope, he'll go in the bottom half of the first round. Guys like Varnado and Parakhouski will be there in the second round though, and could be good value.