Marvin Bagley III

[Blob]

I posted the article to make the point that wingspan is not the be-all, end-all of argument about big men. Randle is a pretty good player in his own right - per 36 his numbers last season is around 21 pts 10 rebs and 4 assists with 55% FG. If the Kings end up with a player who can post this kind of stats many people would consider that a win. .... And Bagley will likely end up even better than Randle, so take Randle's numbers from last season and add a few more points and rebounds - and that would be a scary good player.

Plan A: I like the idea of pairing Bamba (defense) with Randle (offense), using WCS in a S&T with the Lakers so they do NOT match but get something out of it.
Plan B: I like the idea of pairing Bagley (offense) with Capella (defense), using WCS in a S&T with the Rockets so they do NOT match but get something out of it.

 

[dude12]

Lots of mock draft chatter listing Bagley as the Kings guy now.....fwiw

 

[beb0p]

Plan A: I like the idea of pairing Bamba (defense) with Randle (offense), using WCS in a S&T with the Lakers so they do NOT match but get something out of it.
Plan B: I like the idea of pairing Bagley (offense) with Capella (defense), using WCS in a S&T with the Rockets so they do NOT match but get something out of it.

I actually think a Bagley/Giles front court would be better than a Bagley/Capella pairing. Of course, Giles is still raw now but if it works out that is very athletic front line that can switch everything the offense throws at them.

Bamba's defensive potential is on another level. I agree he can compensate for the good offense/ bad defense players.

 

[kingsfan1984]

Bagley's wingspan and lack of rim protection scares me. He's not a good shooter, not a good defender, not a good rim protector. You'll get rebounds and hustle points. If he turns out to be Amare then great but seems just as likely to be Faried. I wish I believed in Bagley as much as Pollard does cause I'd be a lot more excited about #2 if I did.

I could understand Bamba or MPJ over Luka, but Bagley? No way. For all the reasons you pointed out. He is not a go to scorer at tje next level without a ton of development. All he has going for him is his quick twitch quickness that in college allowed him to efficiently score garbage points and get boards. This advatage shrinks dramatically at next level. His lacj of offensive tools means he has a long long way to go before he is any kind of a threat at next level. His best chance is to get a 3pt jumper going, but then he is out at the 3pt line and you loose his offensive rebounding potential.
Then on defense he is just as much a liability as Luka. Too small to bother anyone inside and then he will be at disadvantage than all bigs are if switched out on the elite perimeter players, but has not the length t be much of a bother. Then his awarness is worse than Bamba or Ayton. BMac level poor. Id take Bamba over him and its not even close. Bamba will be a better rebounder, a plus defender at the 5 and not hard to imagine him elite. Then offensively can do just as much if not more damage on the glass, increadible lob target, and also developing that 3pt shot. Bamba is far safer pick than Bagely with the higher floor and ceiling.

 

[kingsfan1984]

Also, Bagley is the worse fit to our roster and plays the dieing traditional big 4 spot. Too small for the 5 yet unable to play the 3. Much like Skal.

And say you dont care too much about Bagleys defense because you like what he can do on offense. Well then how can you possibly value his offensive style/game/skills MORE than what Luka does or MPJ? Porter is the most Durant type of player since durant. Luka is well known about his plethora of offensive skill that he oozes. Both Porter and Luka can be go to scorers rightvaway, already having developed the prerequisite skill to be effective. Porter will shoot over the top of anyone quick enough to keep him in front and has enough handles to go around the bigger players.
Luka will james harden his way around the court when the ball finds him.
Bagely? What will he do? Try to get to the left side of hoop and has nothing he can do if that doesnt work. He is easy to game plan against.
Assuming Ayton goes number 1, if we are not trading down, it should be a 3 man race between Porter, Luka or Bamba. Bagley is not in the same tier.

 

[Telemachus]

Also, Bagley is the worse fit to our roster and plays the dieing traditional big 4 spot. Too small for the 5 yet unable to play the 3. Much like Skal.

I think you are under rating Bagley. He has a very good post game. He is too left hand dominate, but his quickness and athleticism help compensate for that. He has good handles for a PF and has shown the quickness to guard SFs. It is not unreasonable to think He can improve his right hand over the next few years. He also showed a very smooth shot this year. Duke needed him under the basket on offense much more than on the perimeter.

 

[kingsfan1984]

I think you are under rating Bagley. He has a very good post game. He is too left hand dominate, but his quickness and athleticism help compensate for that. He has good handles for a PF and has shown the quickness to guard SFs. It is not unreasonable to think He can improve his right hand over the next few years. He also showed a very smooth shot this year. Duke needed him under the basket on offense much more than on the perimeter.

Would you be more comfortable with 1) dumpimg the ball to Bagley in post position
2) pick n roll with luka
3) Porter getting ball off the catch for either a shot over top of defender or a drive?

On defense, are you more comfortable with Bagley gaurding a SF or Luka and Porter?

And with Bagley, yoursaying he can develop his right and shot etc, but this applies to Porter as well. Luka i can buy MAY be closer to his cieling for argument sake, but not Porter
If we want to make a guess of the future and compare Porter and Bagley after a few years Porter projects to become Duarant while Bagley more like a quicker Aldridge

In my opinion, all 3 are equally poor on the defensive side.
Then offensively, Luka and Porter bring far more utility and value than what Bagley does.

 

[Telemachus]

Would you be more comfortable with 1) dumpimg the ball to Bagley in post position
2) pick n roll with luka
3) Porter getting ball off the catch for either a shot over top of defender or a drive?

On defense, are you more comfortable with Bagley gaurding a SF or Luka and Porter?

I would be happy with any of these players (as well as Jackson). They all bring different things to the table for the Kings. Doncic is my first choice. He is a perfect fit and as close to being bust proof as you can get. Bagley will be a 20-10 player in the NBA IMO. If he can consistently knock down the 3, he will be a superstar. Porter is more of a mystery, but has the talent to be a #1 scorer in the NBA.

As far as defense goes, Doncic has shown that he can play team defense. Get him with the training staff (and some much needed time off) and I don't think he will be a negative on that end. Bagley has shown good footwork and the ability to stay in front of guards on defense. The question is can he improve his awareness and ability to play team defense? Porter has the size and athleticism to be a good defender (he is already a good rebounder for a SF). I also wonder how much of him not getting into a defensive stance had to do with his back? It was bothering him all through his junior and senior years. Only time will answer these questions.

 

[kingsfan1984]

I would be happy with any of these players (as well as Jackson). They all bring different things to the table for the Kings. Doncic is my first choice. He is a perfect fit and as close to being bust proof as you can get. Bagley will be a 20-10 player in the NBA IMO. If he can consistently knock down the 3, he will be a superstar. Porter is more of a mystery, but has the talent to be a #1 scorer in the NBA.

As far as defense goes, Doncic has shown that he can play team defense. Get him with the training staff (and some much needed time off) and I don't think he will be a negative on that end. Bagley has shown good footwork and the ability to stay in front of guards on defense. The question is can he improve his awareness and ability to play team defense? Porter has the size and athleticism to be a good defender (he is already a good rebounder for a SF). I also wonder how much of him not getting into a defensive stance had to do with his back? It was bothering him all through his junior and senior years. Only time will answer these questions.

I agree with your assessment. Its not that i dont like Bagley, its just Porter and Luka (i think bamba too) bring a distinctively more valuable offensive tools for todays game. I dont see how we can pass up on that for Bagley.

 

[gunks]

I'm souring a bit on Bagley. I think his floor is pretty low, he could end up nothing more than a garbage man. Not sure I dig the risk at 2.

I also think it's funny that he has to bust his ass to get roughly the same stats as Ayton, who people knock for coasting. If Bagley's 110% is about the same as Ayton's 70%, that tells you a bit about both prospects.

 

[Kingster]

Remember though, Willie can be "elite". Our GM said so And the 4th year is the "breakout year". The only breakout Willie is going to have is a skin condition from excess tattoo ink.

The last comment that I heard from Divac about WCS was toward the end of the season, the last game, or the second to last game I think. I'm paraphrasing, but it was after a game in which WCS "showed up" and Divac said something like: "We'd like to see more of that." It wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement by the general manager. Now Divac just has to find a GM from another team that thinks that WCS has all kinds of untapped potential so that Divac can get something back for him in a trade.

 

[funkykingston]

I'm souring a bit on Bagley. I think his floor is pretty low, he could end up nothing more than a garbage man. Not sure I dig the risk at 2.

I also think it's funny that he has to bust his ass to get roughly the same stats as Ayton, who people knock for coasting. If Bagley's 110% is about the same as Ayton's 70%, that tells you a bit about both prospects.

This will sound worse than I intend it, but Bagley's floor is essentially being an elite garbage man.

I think that's a much better floor that some other guys in this draft. A hardworking, constant energy guy who I think right out of the gate will play like a quicker John Collins will be a valuable piece for the Kings regardless.

The concern is that the rest of his game is largely hypothetical and based on the potential flashes he's shown. His shot mechanics aren't bad and hit hit threes at a good rate on a small sample size but he missed short, long and to the sides and only shot in the low 60% range from the FT line. He shows some positive signs with his handle and passing, but also gets tunnel vision and makes too many bad decisions. He can slide and mirror on the perimeter defensively but also has just baffling lapses in terms of team defense and isn't a real rim protector. He carves out space in the post and maintains position despite his relatively light frame but can't use his weak hand to finish effectively. He likes to turn and face up by I have yet to see him pull up for a jumper so defenders can play him to drive.

Anyway, I guess the simple point is that Bagley has a floor that won't get a GM fired (inspiring eh?) but has a ceiling as a franchise player. I think this is my argument for taking him over Bamba. Both have maybe the most potential in this draft (along with Ayton) but Bagley has a much lower chance of being a bust and will also likely produce more effectively right out of the gate.

 

[ockingsfan]

I'm souring a bit on Bagley. I think his floor is pretty low, he could end up nothing more than a garbage man. Not sure I dig the risk at 2.

I also think it's funny that he has to bust his ass to get roughly the same stats as Ayton, who people knock for coasting. If Bagley's 110% is about the same as Ayton's 70%, that tells you a bit about both prospects.

Yeah, I'm starting to move away from Bagley too, because I don't see much of a mid-range game from him. It seems he's all dunks and put backs, with the occasional 3 pointers.

I think I would need to see him develop a nice mid-range game before I use #2 on him.

 

[Telemachus]

I agree with your assessment. Its not that i dont like Bagley, its just Porter and Luka (i think bamba too) bring a distinctively more valuable offensive tools for todays game. I dont see how we can pass up on that for Bagley.

I can see that to a degree. Doncic is a more well rounder offensive player and Porter is a pure scorer at all three levels. As for Bamba, I'm assuming you like his defense because his offense is basically around the basket and Bagley is light years better at it than him. I just have a hard time seeing Bagley not score at the next level. I also think he wasn't able to showcase all he could do at Duke. He has a good face up game that he only showed hints of this year.

 

[gunks]

This will sound worse than I intend it, but Bagley's floor is essentially being an elite garbage man.

I think that's a much better floor that some other guys in this draft. A hardworking, constant energy guy who I think right out of the gate will play like a quicker John Collins will be a valuable piece for the Kings regardless.

The concern is that the rest of his game is largely hypothetical and based on the potential flashes he's shown. His shot mechanics aren't bad and hit hit threes at a good rate on a small sample size but he missed short, long and to the sides and only shot in the low 60% range from the FT line. He shows some positive signs with his handle and passing, but also gets tunnel vision and makes too many bad decisions. He can slide and mirror on the perimeter defensively but also has just baffling lapses in terms of team defense and isn't a real rim protector. He carves out space in the post and maintains position despite his relatively light frame but can't use his weak hand to finish effectively. He likes to turn and face up by I have yet to see him pull up for a jumper so defenders can play him to drive.

Anyway, I guess the simple point is that Bagley has a floor that won't get a GM fired (inspiring eh?) but has a ceiling as a franchise player. I think this is my argument for taking him over Bamba. Both have maybe the most potential in this draft (along with Ayton) but Bagley has a much lower chance of being a bust and will also likely produce more effectively right out of the gate.

Fair point! I wouldn't be mortified if we ended up with him. I suppose I just have him on that "risky with crazy upside" tier along with Bamba and JJJ.

 

[bajaden]

I think you have to consider what a player was asked to do in college, and what he may not have been allowed to do, or at least, was limited in some of the things he was allowed to do. Most people who didn't watch a lot college basketball, wouldn't have known that Towns had a very good face up game, and that he could put the ball on the floor. You rarely saw it at Kentucky, but if you watched enough games, you would see it. In the case of Cousins, no one knew he could shoot the ball, let alone that he had such good handles.

My point is, some of this could be true of Bagley as well. If you look at some of his highschool film, you'll see him face up far more than he did at Duke. That's not to say that he didn't take advantage of shorter, slower players in the post. But I think he's smart enough to know there aren't a lot of shorter, slower matchups in the NBA. So I have no doubt that as we speak, he's in a gym somewhere working on his game away from the basket. At worse, he's a far better, taller, quicker version of Kenneth Faried. And I have little doubt that he's much better than that.

 

[funkykingston]

I think you have to consider what a player was asked to do in college, and what he may not have been allowed to do, or at least, was limited in some of the things he was allowed to do. Most people who didn't watch a lot college basketball, wouldn't have known that Towns had a very good face up game, and that he could put the ball on the floor. You rarely saw it at Kentucky, but if you watched enough games, you would see it. In the case of Cousins, no one knew he could shoot the ball, let alone that he had such good handles.

My point is, some of this could be true of Bagley as well. If you look at some of his highschool film, you'll see him face up far more than he did at Duke. That's not to say that he didn't take advantage of shorter, slower players in the post. But I think he's smart enough to know there aren't a lot of shorter, slower matchups in the NBA. So I have no doubt that as we speak, he's in a gym somewhere working on his game away from the basket. At worse, he's a far better, taller, quicker version of Kenneth Faried. And I have little doubt that he's much better than that.

With Calipari players I always assume guys have aspects of their game that they didn't get to show off, especially with Kentucky bigs. With Duke I always feel like Coach K will adapt to his players' strengths. If he felt like Bagley would have been more effective facing up from outside we'd likely have seen more of it.

Again, I'm not saying Bagley won't develop a very good face up game, just that I don't think Krzyzewski was keeping him from showing it. In fact, I think he would have liked to see more of it to open up the floor on offense a bit more.

 

[Telemachus]

With Calipari players I always assume guys have aspects of their game that they didn't get to show off, especially with Kentucky bigs. With Duke I always feel like Coach K will adapt to his players' strengths. If he felt like Bagley would have been more effective facing up from outside we'd likely have seen more of it.

Again, I'm not saying Bagley won't develop a very good face up game, just that I don't think Krzyzewski was keeping him from showing it. In fact, I think he would have liked to see more of it to open up the floor on offense a bit more.

When I watched Duke it was obvious that Bagley was their most effective player in the paint. I felt Coach K made a decision to play Carter more away from the basket on offense (better shooter) and then have them switch roles on defense. Both players may have been able to show more if the other one wasn't there.

 

[kingsfan1984]

How would Bagley compare both as a player and in the role of a Julius Randle? Even if Bagely gets a good mid game and face up, that just is not ad valuable as a 3 level scorer in Porter. Give me the Durant proto type who is solid enough of a rebounder and big enough to play the 4 to go along with being comfortavle at the 3.

Say we have bagely in same tier as porter and doncic....then we have to look at our roster and Bagley fits like drafting another buddy hield. Skall and giles are in that same role. Giles might be fantastic and if he is then Bagley and him are eating each others mins while Skall is at the end of the bench. Im also of the opinion that Nigel is a keeper and may be a better bench 4/5 than Skal as he is more versital defensively.
If doncic, bagley and porter are all thought to have superstar upside and equal as prospects, then i think you have to consider our roster. Porter or Doncic fit perfect...bagley fits like a bat in a gold bag

 

[funkykingston]

How would Bagley compare both as a player and in the role of a Julius Randle? Even if Bagely gets a good mid game and face up, that just is not ad valuable as a 3 level scorer in Porter. Give me the Durant proto type who is solid enough of a rebounder and big enough to play the 4 to go along with being comfortavle at the 3.

Say we have bagely in same tier as porter and doncic....then we have to look at our roster and Bagley fits like drafting another buddy hield. Skall and giles are in that same role. Giles might be fantastic and if he is then Bagley and him are eating each others mins while Skall is at the end of the bench. Im also of the opinion that Nigel is a keeper and may be a better bench 4/5 than Skal as he is more versital defensively.
If doncic, bagley and porter are all thought to have superstar upside and equal as prospects, then i think you have to consider our roster. Porter or Doncic fit perfect...bagley fits like a bat in a gold bag

Randle is a similar player to Bagley. Randle is wider and stronger while Bagley is significantly more athletic and high energy but otherwise their games are pretty similar. Both are really traditional, close to the basket PFs in a league that has gone away from that archetype who rebound well, score well, have some good faceup ability but lack interior defense skills/ability. Randle struggled somewhat and then played really well as a backup center, eventually getting back into the starting lineup. I think Bagley will have more immediate success but may have some of the same positional issues as a modern five man who really has to be a PF on defense.

Skal can't factor into who the Kings draft. And really, neither can Giles since he hasn't even seen the floor in the NBA and was a shell of himself in his one year at Duke. HIs last impressive game tape was against high school kids. I would LOVE to see Harry succeed but he can't be counted on as a major piece of the team until he both shows success in the NBA and proves to be durable/healthy. Skal showed some flashes at the end of his rookie year but last year was disappointing. Right now he's fighting for minutes, not a key piece.

Disregarding Kosta and Z-bo since they likely won't be on the team past this year, the only other big on the roster is WCS. He and Bagley could actually pair fairly well together since Bagley will help make up for Willie on the glass and if committed and engaged (big IFs) Cauley-Stein can be the rim protector that Bagley hasn't shown the ability to be.

If Bagley gets a consistent outside shot, he's potentially a decent fit with Giles or Skal too.

The biggest issue of course is that the league is moving to a ball handler, three wings and a big setup. Bagley (at least now and maybe always) isn't really suited to be the lone big and defensive anchor so he'll likely have to succeed by improving his perimeter defense and offense. A guy who can guard a SF or stretch 4 but then on offense be a threat from outside with the ability to attack the basket off the faceup or take smaller guys into the post and punish them is a valuable two way player.

Porter is a simpler fit for sure, but the Kings need the best talent, not the easiest fit.

 

[roasthawg]

I think Faried is a better comp than randle for Bagley. I have both jjj and bamba over him now but they're all really close. I'd be happy with any of the three on draft day but expect vlade to get the best one long term (that's why he makes the big bucks).

 

[Ozymandias]

Lol..... Cringeworthy page here idk where to begin.....

Marvin is a scorer...... Not a garbage man ... If ya don't understand this many of the core fundamentals in his scouting report have gone over your head.

 

[Ozymandias]

Marvin is much more like Blake Griffin or Amare Stoudemire than Faried.

 

[Ozymandias]

Marvin would start at PF and its conceivable he'd lead the team in scoring as a rook.

 

[Kingster]

Bagley is going to be better in the pros than he was in college, similar to the situation with Tatum. Coach K's offense was guard heavy, to the detriment of Bagley, in part because college is a guard's league and guards invariably hog the ball more than they should, in part because Coach K plays team ball to a fault and didn't want to have his star freshman upset the the team concept. This was Coach K's dilemma: how do I have them play team ball when the guy with by far the most talent on this team is a freshman? Answer: he ends up diluting Bagley's impact for the perceived benefit of the whole. If "touches" of the ball by a player should be proportional to that player's talent level compared to his other teammates, Bagley should have been given many more touches on the Duke team.

When the floor is spaced for him in the NBA Bagley is going to take guys off the dribble and jam it in their faces. Day 1 he's going to be the leading rebounder on the Kings. He's going to get offensive rebounds and make those put-backs look easy because he can jump quicker than 95% of the NBA. He's going to to actually use his speed on the floor and run the court and finish, because unlike some others on the Kings' current team, he does have a motor (https://www.koenigsegg.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/IMG_1768-Edit.jpg). His outside shooting is going to be better than most think, and his ability to dribble the ball for a big man is going to be much more evident as well. There are going to be a lot of: "I didn't know he could do that!" from Kings' fans when he does something they never expected from this 6'11" player.

Just pick Bagley at #2 and be done with it.

 

[BigVirg]

The best part about Bagley is how efficient he is. He scored over 21 pts a game on only 13 shot attempts per game.

 

[funkykingston]

I was thinking about this last night. I have Bagley at the top of my board for the Kings but there's a part of me that wants Doncic more and I figured out why.

Bagley is the best pick if none of our current bigs pan out. If WCS keeps being inconsistent and wanting to be an offensive star instead of focusing on being a defensive force and rim runner. If Giles can't stay healthy or recapture what he once was. If Skal doesn't take the next step and actually become a valuable contributor. In that case we're really just left with hoping Fox develops and relying on the 1, 2 punch of Hield and Bogdan at the SG spot. It means the team is further from being anything but a more entertaining lottery team while watching Fox and Bagley hopefully develop some real chemistry.

Doncic is the better pick if somehow Giles lives up to the low level hype that's been building around him and if Cauley-Stein and or Labissiere actually show something this season. Because now you have a solid young prospect at every position and a team built for a motion offense with plus passers at most spots in Bogdan, Luka, Harry and possibly even Willie.

I think the reality is closer to the first scenario. The Kings are like Philly a few years back (before drafting Simmons and when Embiid couldn't stay healthy) with lots of young guys that don't really pan out and who end up getting shipped out for pennies on the dollar like MCW, Noel and Okafor. But I'd sure love it if it were the latter.

 

[BigVirg]

I'm not holding my breath on WCS and Skal is solid but I wouldn't keep me from drafting a player because of him. If Bagley is on top of your board then you take him PERIOD. Factor in that there will be several under the radar SF in FA like Mario Hezonja, Rodney Hood, and Jabari Parker that are good but not elite and we could have an opportunity to overpay to get them to SAC. Same could be said about drafting Luka and signing a PF but I still take BPA in the draft. Luka will be a good player but Bagley would give us a young athletic identity that could be special IMO. Fox running the break with Bagley and Giles running the floor...... I CAN'T WAIT!

 

[Ozymandias]

With Willie, Skal and Giles being on staggered contract lengths and with capspace Koufos and Randolph expiring, the kings have achieved EXTREME flexibility both cap wise and positionally speaking. None of these potentential bigs at 2 would affect those flexibilities some would enhance it.

 

[Ozymandias]

Bagley is the type of PF that can hold his own vs Draymond