R2D2
Bench
Belinelli, is that you?!?
Any BTW - if this is your measuring stick you should most likely argue to get rid of practically everyone on our roster...
[Game] Kings @ Suns, 11 APR 2016, 22:00 ET/19:00 PT
- Thread starter Mr. S£im Citrus
- Start date
Belinelli, is that you?!?
Any BTW - if this is your measuring stick you should most likely argue to get rid of practically everyone on our roster...
Livinthedream
All-Star
I misjudged Ray a little. I thought he would develop into something. But when you get a player who plays more than a couple years in college, usually what you see is what you're going to get. He's an NBA caliber bench player, but not Spurs caliber bench player.
As far as end of season games goes, when all of your starters sit, somebody has to score. Playing well in these games shows that you should be in the rotation for an NBA team, but hard to tell just how well you will do over a full season when it all matters.
With that being said, I want Seth back and for him to play PG. Polish up the playmaking PG skills like his brother had to do. The scoring comes easy for him. It will be the other things that takes him over the top.
Well, you're both right and wrong.
You're correct in that we have a better chance of hitting the lottery than getting passed by three teams. However, we don't know where we will end up pre-lottery yet; if we end up at #10, we only need to be passed by one team to lose the pick, and IfAt1st's odds are close to what I get - he may be assuming a tie for ninth/tenth instead of tenth outright. At #10 by ourselves, we have about a 4% chance of hitting the lottery and about a 9% chance of getting passed by one team.
That said, with one game left for each relevant team we can finish in the following positions:
8th
9th
10th
Tied for 7th-8th
Tied for 7th-8th-9th
Tied for 7th-8th-9th-10th
Tied for 8th-9th
Tied for 8th-9th-10th
Tied for 9th-10th
So it's really clear as mud right now. We'll know more on Wednesday.
Well, considering that the Rockets are in the playoffs if they beat the Kings and it's a game in Houston I'm guessing the Kings lose their final game.
The Knicks are one game back of the Kings (or one game ahead depending on your frame of reference) and the Nuggets and Bucks are tied with Sacramento.
In their final games:
New York plays Indiana on the road
Denver plays Portland on the road
Milwaukee also plays Indiana at home
The Bucks will get the Pacers on the 2nd night of a back-to-back in their final home game so maybe they win that one but otherwise the Kings will end up tied with at least the Nuggets for the 8th spot and maybe the Nuggets and Bucks while the Knicks stay at 7.
The Knicks are one game back of the Kings (or one game ahead depending on your frame of reference) and the Nuggets and Bucks are tied with Sacramento.
In their final games:
New York plays Indiana on the road
Denver plays Portland on the road
Milwaukee also plays Indiana at home
The Bucks will get the Pacers on the 2nd night of a back-to-back in their final home game so maybe they win that one but otherwise the Kings will end up tied with at least the Nuggets for the 8th spot and maybe the Nuggets and Bucks while the Knicks stay at 7.
I've already been corrected on the second point. This was my response, and I stand by it:
I have been very firm and very consistent on my "**** the pick" platform. And frankly, if we, who have been "resting" our good players in order to vie for lottery position lose our draft pick because one of the teams that was still playing to win, down to the end, ends up winning the lottery, and pushes us out of the Top 10, then I am here for it! It'd serve us right; from my point of view, losing the pick after playing these games would be exactly the comeuppance we deserve.
I am, indeed, aware that there is a better chance of one of the teams behind us finishing ahead of us than there is of us winning the lotto. I was merely contesting the claim that the odds of three of them finishing in the Top three was better than us winning the lottery, which is what @IfAt1st said. I mean, it's been over twenty years since I had to take a Stats and Probs course, but I don't remember the math working out like that.
IfAt1st
Starter
Go look: http://www.tankathon.com/
I'm using a simplified version of probability, but basically you would add up the % chances that teams 11 through 14 have of getting in the Top 3 picks.
So ~ 10% is greater than our ~ 6.5%
This only assumes that the Kings lose the coin flip to resolve the tie with MIL and DEN (we seem to always lose those) or the Kings win vs Houston (which you publicly say you want them to win, so them being 10th should be a given in this
That's not how probability works, at least not relative to the situation that I was refuting. I have already stipulated to being corrected about the fact that any one team could push us out of the top ten.
Livinthedream
All-Star
I was told there'd be no math...
IfAt1st
Starter
ummm... EXCUSE ME?!
Look, man, you are the one that lobbed the "psychotic" term at me, completely unbidden.
I didn't even post in this thread until my reply to that insult.
Don't put your words in my mouth.
You were wrong in what you said, and I am right - if you don't want to admit you messed up, I guess that's fine, but don't be saying I came up with the (flawed) scenario - you stated that the Kings had a better chance of winning the lottery than three teams passing us (which is irrelevant, so I replied to the real scenario, of ONE TEAM jumping the Kings' place).
Since you advocate that the Kings keep winning useless games, it only takes one team to vault us for the Kings to lose the draft pick (which you again, openly advocate).
And I took college-level engineering Statistics.
I am fuzzy on the intricacies of it, but I'm pretty damned sure that the probability of 1 of 4 teams passing us in the draft is simply the adding up of their individual probabilities.
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As a matter of fact, now that I think about it, the most hilarious outcome for me would be if Chicago won the lottery.
No, I didn't. Don't blame me because you didn't read what I wrote. I never called you psychotic; I didn't even call @theclash4u5 psychotic; I called his idea psychotic, using some of your ramblings as a baseline. That's not the same thing as calling you psychotic but, hey, if the shoe fits...
EDIT - Correction: I called what I had initially misunderstood @theclash4u5's premise to be psychotic.
It's not that my premise was flawed, so much as I mis-read @theclash4u5's premise, and replied based on my misreading of his premise, a mistake that I had already stipulated to, before you decided to put your two cents in. The funny part being that you made the same mistake of replying to me based on a misreading of my premise. The point that I made may, indeed, be "irrelevant," but that is the point that I was making, and it is correct. My premise was only flawed inasmuch as I unwittingly and inadvertently created my own straw man. So... sorry about all that, I guess...
Welcome to the club. Cookies are in the next room.
Actually, not quite. The complication is that if one of the teams passes us into say 2nd position, then the other teams can't get the 2nd position. When the numbers are very small adding them up comes out somewhat close, but the correct formula would be to multiply each of their probabilities of NOT passing us all together, and then subtract that value from 1.
IfAt1st
Starter
LMAO!
I actually had that in a parenthesis, but I deleted it to make the math easier, since I concluded that in that case, the effect on the overall % would be irrelevant, since it would make the outcome 100% at that point (i.e. they already won).
Sort of like Cauley-stein?
Sort of.
WTH? Imagine my surprise.
1. I worked very late last night and didn't even think about the Kings game.
2. I was too tired to check the board last night.
3. I come here to catch up, see the game thread (thanks Slim!) and read the first page before deciding just to cut to the chase, so to speak.
4. It's become an argument about statistics and probability?
5. I agree totally with Livinthedream
1. I worked very late last night and didn't even think about the Kings game.
2. I was too tired to check the board last night.
3. I come here to catch up, see the game thread (thanks Slim!) and read the first page before deciding just to cut to the chase, so to speak.
4. It's become an argument about statistics and probability?
5. I agree totally with Livinthedream
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Anyone remember what they use as the tie breaker?
bajaden
Hall of Famer
Ahhhh, how many pages back might we find that post so we know what it is your agreeing with? I probably read it, but with my memory, I've already forgotten what I just wrote.
Head or tails between the owners in two-way tie and Rock, paper scissors in three-way
K
KingMilz
Guest
Eliminating Houston out of the playoff race could be worth losing the pick if it comes down to it.
KingsFanSince85
All-Star
While I understand the reasoning behind what your are saying, I disagree with the "deserve" part for one simple reason. In numerous seasons when the team didn't tank and were just plain bad all season long, they never were rewarded by the lottery gods for playing til the end. How many times has this team been screwed over by the lottery process? And they'll likely be screwed over again in the exact scenario you painted.
But, having said that, I think this team is rightfully due some good fortune-- even if it comes via dishonorable methods so-to-speak. I will gladly take and accept the good fortune if it comes our way based upon the years of currency the franchise should have already built up getting screwed over in every which way imaginable.
Heads or Tails?
Head or tails between the owners in two-way tie and Rock, paper scissors in three-way
Not far off.
I'm pretty sure it's just a series of coin tosses. Lotto balls are divided equally between the teams, the coin flips determine the draft order if nobody wins a top 3 pick.
Fair enough. I will personally be rooting for draft schadenfreude.
Head or tails between the owners in two-way tie and Rock, paper scissors in three-way
Ahhhh, how many pages back might we find that post so we know what it is your agreeing with? I probably read it, but with my memory, I've already forgotten what I just wrote.
Sorry. Last page - #188.
KingsFanSince85
All-Star
Rock, paper, scissors, lizard, spock absolutely RULES!
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